champions leauge again

mike65

Looking at

Real Madrid
Rooney anytime
Reading -1
Leeds
Brentford

About 27/1 as a accu but if I do it, it'll be 4 from 5s.

Mike

holdemfoldem

haven't used betfair in ages, this is just a normal PP bet like a lucky 63 without singles, doubles or trebles.

thedini

utd single 2/7

villarreal,zenit,utd treble evs

mike65

Aalborg are second bottom of the league and have not won in five games. The only risk is that Villareal might take this a bit too easy with a big game this weekend.

Mike

holdemfoldem

mike65 wrote: »

Aalborg are second bottom of the league and have not won in five games. The only risk is that Villareal might take this a bit too easy with a big game this weekend.

Mike

good point.. i based it on odds instead of considering how the game might play out.. think it was 4 to 6 or 7 for the -1 and 8 to 5 for -2.. i think i should have went for the safer -1 but sure can't change it now

estebancambias

BATE beating Zenit

thedini

thedini wrote: »

utd single 2/7

villarreal,zenit,utd treble evs

utd cruised home. how did zenit not win, kicked them off the park.

holdemfoldem

PP had a porto win in their results and on my receipt for about 15 mins after FT.. damn them getting my hopes up..

oh well wonder what the five wins would get me back..

got my little fiver treble up as well so no harm done:D

Lao Lao

estebancambias wrote: »

Eh no. fenerbache are at home and Bayern aren't that good.

Fenerbache 2 - Arsenal 5

Bayern 3 - Fiorentina 0

When will people learn that when bookie's give odds of 94/1, it's because they (the bookies) are a massive favourite to win, really cannot understand why people go for these massive (stupid) odds - as said previously, you're better off giving the money to charity

ArmaniJeanss

Lao Lao wrote: »

Fenerbache 2 - Arsenal 5

Bayern 3 - Fiorentina 0

When will people learn that when bookie's give odds of 94/1, it's because they (the bookies) are a massive favourite to win, really cannot understand why people go for these massive (stupid) odds - as said previously, you're better off giving the money to charity

Just because odds are 'massive' does not make them stupid.
If you found a bookie that gave 594/1 or 994/1 on this double in the reverse fixtures in 2 weeks would you consider it worth backing? Every outcome has a price that makes it value, big odds are not always bad bets.

holdemfoldem

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Just because odds are 'massive' does not make them stupid.
If you found a bookie that gave 594/1 or 994/1 on this double in the reverse fixtures in 2 weeks would you consider it worth backing? Every outcome has a price that makes it value, big odds are not always bad bets.

yeah have to agree with lao here.. it was 94/1 for a reason.. in terms of a value bet alot of people would think 94/1 is good value on 6 matches but the bookies have such a massive edge in this bet that it makes it in poker terms negative EV or a big loser in the long run.

Bubs101

Lao Lao wrote: »

Fenerbache 2 - Arsenal 5

Bayern 3 - Fiorentina 0

When will people learn that when bookie's give odds of 94/1, it's because they (the bookies) are a massive favourite to win, really cannot understand why people go for these massive (stupid) odds - as said previously, you're better off giving the money to charity

Take it you haven't researched these at all. Fenerbache are actually quite good at home. Last year they scored victories over both Inter and Chelsea at home, both much better teams than Arsenal. As for Bayern, they aren't exactly dominating the Bundesliga while Fiorentina are impressing again in Serie A and did well in their last away trip in the Champion's League against Lyon. I would have thought the value was in Fener and Fiore tonight, particularly Fener

thedini

holdemfoldem wrote: »

yeah have to agree with lao here.. it was 94/1 for a reason.. in terms of a value bet alot of people would think 94/1 is good value on 6 matches but the bookies have such a massive edge in this bet that it makes it in poker terms negative EV or a big loser in the long run.

whilst the bookies do typically have a massive edge in these type of bets that is because of punters picking the 'incorrect' selections. if you can find an accumulator @ 94/1 which should be say 80/1 etc then of course it's value.

Lao Lao

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Just because odds are 'massive' does not make them stupid.
If you found a bookie that gave 594/1 or 994/1 on this double in the reverse fixtures in 2 weeks would you consider it worth backing? Every outcome has a price that makes it value, big odds are not always bad bets.

That's a ridiculus argument, no bookie would ever give odds of 591/1 or 994/1 on a double.

I never said that big odds are always bad bets, but when odds are so high it is because the win outcome is not expected

Pj!

The old value debate again.

Some understand it, others don't.

Lao Lao

Bubs101 wrote: »

Take it you haven't researched these at all. Fenerbache are actually quite good at home. Last year they scored victories over both Inter and Chelsea at home, both much better teams than Arsenal. As for Bayern, they aren't exactly dominating the Bundesliga while Fiorentina are impressing again in Serie A and did well in their last away trip in the Champion's League against Lyon. I would have thought the value was in Fener and Fiore tonight, particularly Fener

I think you'll find that I have researched this. Where are Fenerbache in the league this season??? 10th is where they are and they are not playing great. They may have had a few scalps last season in the CL but their form this season so far has been poor. On top of that Arsenal are in very good form and finally seem to have sorted out their away CL games in dodgy places

Bayern got off to a rocky start in the Bundesliga but played well last week when they beat KSC. They are still a quality team and there was always going to be a backlash when they finally clicked, which they did last night

jArgHA

Barca / Chelsea / Inter Treble @ 6/4 on Betfair -
I can't see this not working out based on form (could be famous last words) so will be throwing a few bob on it.

stryker mcqueen

chelsea -1

6/5 on boyles

I think chelsea will destroy roma

PIMPHO

jArgHA wrote: »

Barca / Chelsea / Inter Treble @ 6/4 on Betfair -
I can't see this not working out based on form (could be famous last words) so will be throwing a few bob on it.

Hmmmm interesting treble indeed! Is this the best odds for this treble as you have to take into account BF's commission?

redfan

barca 1/2 tom floods messi and the lads . chelsea almost a dead cert . inter im not to sure.
its the one you think is a dead cert foooks us all up . 1/6 on, inter is a joke price .

holdemfoldem

thedini wrote: »

whilst the bookies do typically have a massive edge in these type of bets that is because of punters picking the 'incorrect' selections. if you can find an accumulator @ 94/1 which should be say 80/1 etc then of course it's value.

If you look at it from a mathematical point of view his bet of six matches had 81 possible combinations to win so he will win the bet 1 in every 81 times. At 94/1 this means statistically if he placed the bet at €1 81 times he would make a total profit of €13 or .16 cent per bet.

From the Bookies point of view they win 98.8% of the time on that bet and no one does that same bet enough times to make the €13 euro profit.

thats without bringing up the fact that his bet included individual outsiders who were less probable to win in the first place because of team strenght/results/league position/weather/location etc

can you really call the €13 projected profit value?

ArmaniJeanss

Lao Lao wrote: »

That's a ridiculus argument, no bookie would ever give odds of 591/1 or 994/1 on a double.

I never said that big odds are always bad bets, but when odds are so high it is because the win outcome is not expected

OK, so you won't get 994/1 on the Fenerbache/Fiorentina double, but logically there has to come a point where the price becomes value (+EV in our poker terms). Whether the bet becomes +EV at 94/1 or 120/1 or 170/1 is what the 'value debaters' try to figure out.

And conversely (despite the fact that it came in) the Arsenal/Munich double was possibly also a bad bet with -EV long term, due to the fact that the bookies rarely get such high profile games wrong.

ArmaniJeanss

holdemfoldem wrote: »

If you look at it from a mathematical point of view his bet of six matches had 81 possible combinations to win so he will win the bet 1 in every 81 times. At 94/1 this means statistically if he placed the bet at €1 81 times he would make a total profit of €13 or .16 cent per bet.

From the Bookies point of view they win 98.8% of the time on that bet and no one does that same bet enough times to make the €13 euro profit.

thats without bringing up the fact that his bet included individual outsiders who were less probable to win in the first place because of team strenght/results/league position/weather/location etc

can you really call the €13 projected profit value?

Eh, is this a windup?
In the situation you've outlined the €13 profit is not just value, its absolutely stonkingly brilliant value, its ~15% profit per bet which is punting paradise.

thedini

holdemfoldem wrote: »

If you look at it from a mathematical point of view his bet of six matches had 81 possible combinations to win so he will win the bet 1 in every 81 times. At 94/1 this means statistically if he placed the bet at €1 81 times he would make a total profit of €13 or .16 cent per bet.

From the Bookies point of view they win 98.8% of the time on that bet and no one does that same bet enough times to make the €13 euro profit.

thats without bringing up the fact that his bet included individual outsiders who were less probable to win in the first place because of team strenght/results/league position/weather/location etc

can you really call the €13 projected profit value?

since when does expected profit not equate to value?

mike65

Meh back to the games

looking at +2.5 goal for Inter/Chelsea/Barca games. about 5/1 I think

Mike

Bubs101

Lao Lao wrote: »

I think you'll find that I have researched this. Where are Fenerbache in the league this season??? 10th is where they are and they are not playing great. They may have had a few scalps last season in the CL but their form this season so far has been poor. On top of that Arsenal are in very good form and finally seem to have sorted out their away CL games in dodgy places

Bayern got off to a rocky start in the Bundesliga but played well last week when they beat KSC. They are still a quality team and there was always going to be a backlash when they finally clicked, which they did last night

To be honest, it seems like your just picking and choosing your arguments here. Fener are down in the league, but as you pointed out so are Bayern so I don't see how you can excuse one and not the other, especially when your reason for backing Bayern (because they won at the weekend) also applies to Fener. Also, how exactly is Arsenal's form good. Could have sworn they lost at home to Hull and then drew with some other bunch of jokers. A win over Everton is not "very good form". Considering how unpredicatable Arsenal are I would have thought that 3-1 is value for a team that have sprung surprises keeping in mind Arsenal have had problems in turkey before. Also, Fiorentina were on cracking form with three wins in a row and three clean sheets. Well?

Anyway, what do people think of Bordeaux at just under evens. Surely to big for a home match against Cluj, regardless of form

Also, regarding Chelsea, think the price might be too small considering Totti's back. I'd expect a Chelsea win but Roma have a very very strong midfield with probably the best understanding in Europe with De Rossi, Aquilani and Totti (although they do miss Mancini)

Lao Lao

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

And conversely (despite the fact that it came in) the Arsenal/Munich double was possibly also a bad bet with -EV long term, due to the fact that the bookies rarely get such high profile games wrong.

Ok, you've completely lost me now. On PP Bayern were 5/6 to win where as Fiorentina were 7/2. Arsenal were 11/10 for the win and Fenerbache were 5/2, i.e. the bookies had Bayern & Arsenal as favourites to win each game and they were correct, what did they get wrong here??? I fail to see how backing the favourites is -EV long term.

holdemfoldem

thedini wrote: »

since when does expected profit not equate to value?

ok i think i'll agree to disagree here, but to answer your question. your definition of value is when say a 80/1 shot is priced at 90/1. therefore you get an extra tenner if it wins. what im trying to demonstrate is that its actual odds of 80/1 mean that the bookie has 79 chances to win when you have 1, im sure the bookies will forgo you €10 'value' loss ( if your lucky enough to hit an 80/1 shot in the first place ) every once in a while to collect the hundreds of other bets that they will have won. in other words they know that you have F all chance of actually winning so they don't mind the slight increase in the odds they display.

so thats that.. on to tonight chelsea -1, barca -1 = just under 4/1.. plus still have a few left on my other bet to get my money back.

GL everyone

thedini

holdemfoldem wrote: »

ok i think i'll agree to disagree here, but to answer your question. your definition of value is when say a 80/1 shot is priced at 90/1. therefore you get an extra tenner if it wins. what im trying to demonstrate is that its actual odds of 80/1 mean that the bookie has 79 chances to win when you have 1, im sure the bookies will forgo you €10 'value' loss ( if your lucky enough to hit an 80/1 shot in the first place ) every once in a while to collect the hundreds of other bets that they will have won. in other words they know that you have F all chance of actually winning so they don't mind the slight increase in the odds they display.

so thats that.. on to tonight chelsea -1, barca -1 = just under 4/1.. plus still have a few left on my other bet to get my money back.

GL everyone

so you are saying a bookie doesnt mind giving value because sure hardly anybody wins. that makes absolutely no sense.

Lao Lao

Bubs101 wrote: »

To be honest, it seems like your just picking and choosing your arguments here. Fener are down in the league, but as you pointed out so are Bayern so I don't see how you can excuse one and not the other, especially when your reason for backing Bayern (because they won at the weekend) also applies to Fener. Also, how exactly is Arsenal's form good. Could have sworn they lost at home to Hull and then drew with some other bunch of jokers. A win over Everton is not "very good form". Considering how unpredicatable Arsenal are I would have thought that 3-1 is value for a team that have sprung surprises keeping in mind Arsenal have had problems in turkey before. Also, Fiorentina were on cracking form with three wins in a row and three clean sheets. Well?

QUOTE]

Can't believe that I'm getting into this but here we go.

How I can excuse Bayern's league position and not Fenerbache

1) Bayern are a class team and IMO merely went through a rough patch at the start of the German season.

2)Fenerbache are not the class team that Bayern are and are playing very badly at the moment

3) Bayern are a European super power and consistently do well in the CL

4) Fenerbache are not a European super power

5) Fenerbache struggled to beat the bottom placed team 3-2 in the turkish league with a 90th minute winner

6)Bayern beat a mid placed German team 1-0 at the weekend. They were the far better team for the 1st half and had Toni not gone off injured I believe that Bayern would hav won by a bigger margin


Arsenal's Form

In the PL, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, drawing one and losing one to Hull. That is the same form as Man Utd. If they had drawn the Hull game, it would be the same form as Chelsea and Liverpool who have both won 4 of their last six, drawing two. They have started very well in the CL beating Porto at home 4-0 and drawing away to Kiev (a tough place to go to)

I consider this run to be good form if you don't well then so be it.