Only One National Road Project to Start in 2009

Sponge Bob

spacetweek wrote: »

Sponge Brain, I'm sick of your doom and gloom and saying whatever comes into your head as if it was fact, so I'll stand over this:

In January the new list of roads for next year will be announced, and you'll be proven wrong.

LOL spacetweek , where IS the money coming from pray tell and which projects do you think are going ahead next year ...apart from the Galway bypass

I stand over this assertion.

"That means that the following Roads , N4 N5 N15 N17 N18 N20 N21 N22 N24 N25 N11 south of Gorey are all finished for the long term foreseeable future"

childoforpheus

Well the N20/M20 won't cost much because it looks like it is being progressed as a PPP.

L1011

Sponge Bob wrote: »

LOL spacetweek , where IS the money coming from pray tell and which projects do you think are going ahead next year ...apart from the Galway bypass

I stand over this assertion.

"That means that the following Roads , N4 N5 N15 N17 N18 N20 N21 N22 N24 N25 N11 south of Gorey are all finished for the long term foreseeable future"

N4/N5 are almost certain to get further go-aheads in the short term forseeable future. Longford's replacement bypasses (N4 and N5) and Carrick bypass (N4). The interlinking bits of bypass / 2+2 overlays on existing WS2 will likely be left off until theres a lot more money again, but these projects, particularly the Carrick bypass, are important enough to pay for when we're short on cash. N15 is likely to continue to get patchwork upgrades to WS2 in the remaining areas its very poor (such as beyond Manorhamilton). I'm not familiar with the other roads.

You, basically, are blagging.

Sponge Bob

MYOB wrote: »

N4/N5 are almost certain to get further go-aheads in the short term forseeable future. Longford's replacement bypasses (N4 and N5) and Carrick bypass (N4).

Those two projects were supposed to go to CPO stage last year so they should be ready to rock , same with the New Ross and Enniscorthy bypasses , however the Enniscorthy bypass did not go to CPO last year and is supposed to this year, see here

Therefore they should all start next year if there was any money .....which is course there is not . Projects not CPO'd now will not start in 2009 .

Don't forget that the current NRA workload will cost about €1bn in 2009 and about €1bn in 2010 even if no new projects are started . The savings only kick in from 2011 onwards when the current building program is complete .

Don't forget either that we promised the North €500m for 2 or 3 road projects , read .

http://www.a5wtc.com/About.aspx

and for a little light relief read this schedule for the N11 upgrade .

http://www.thrdo.com/enniscorthydates.html

Sponge Bob

spacetweek wrote: »

Sponge Brain, I'm sick of your doom and gloom and saying whatever comes into your head as if it was fact, so I'll stand over this:

In January the new list of roads for next year will be announced, and you'll be proven wrong.

And it is now February and I was proven right .

Only one National Road project is starting in 2009.

It was not the N6 Galway bypass but the considerably smaller N22 Castleisland bypass.

You were completely and utterly wrong SpaceTWeek . Nevertheless I look forward to your 2010 predictions

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

And it is now February and I was proven right .

Only one National Road project is starting in 2009.

It was not the N6 Galway bypass but the considerably smaller N22 Castleisland bypass.

You were completely and utterly wrong SpaceTWeek . Nevertheless I look forward to your 2010 predictions

You weren't totally right Sponge Bob...but you were a lot righter than I had hoped. You did say that the N18 and the N21 were finished, but they're not.

Sponge Bob

I am afraid that it is impossible to fund a PPP where the presumption is that the Irish Government will pay up a large sum of money each year for 30 years or so .

The risk is virtually uninsurable as it is priced at a premium over sovereign debt and will wipe out any profit margin involved.

Noel Dempsey knows this well but naturally he will not announce it ....not least because the risk will become even more uninsurable .

Therefore PPP means dead . Sorry Furet .

This also affects Metro North and any other sizeable PPP schemes being pipelined.

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Therefore PPP means dead . Sorry Furet .

I was referring to the Gort to Crusheen scheme really; you said that no N18 scheme would go ahead, but one part of it did.

So you don't think anyone will be interested in the M20 for example? I fear you may be right, for the next three or four years anyway.

What's your inkling on the MSAs now? Personally I suspect they are safe.

Sponge Bob

Furet wrote: »

I was referring to the Gort to Crusheen scheme really; you said that no N18 scheme would go ahead, but one part of it did.

I said that

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56684812&postcount=13

"There was a possible funding window for Gort Ennis" in July . It was funded.

So you don't think anyone will be interested in the M20 for example? I fear you may be right, for the next three or four years anyway.

Nobody can handle the risk on an irish Government NOT defaulting over the 30 year life of a PPP. This also applies to existing PPPs although it is of no real import if the road is already built but I cannot comment any further on that issue .

Consortium goes to bank for wedge , bank laughs consortium out the door. Consortium cannot bid. Do you follow ??

What's your inkling on the MSAs now? Personally I suspect they are safe.

Some 8-10 of them would be safe. They will be nice little earners once let out . If they overbuild they will hit diminishing marginal returns of course .

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I said that

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56684812&postcount=13

"There was a possible funding window for Gort Ennis" in July . It was funded.

You did and it was. But last May you said this: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55905118&postcount=35

Which indicates to me that the powers-that-be were flip-flopping over the issue for months, and your posts captured some of that successfully.

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

This also applies to existing PPPs although it is of no real import if the road is already built but I cannot comment any further on that issue.

Whoaa...Back up there Spongey!

Are you suggesting somewhat taciturnly that one or more of the currently under construction-PPPs is in trouble? Can you just say "my DOF mole, yea" if you are, or "nay" of you're not.

Sponge Bob

Furet wrote: »

Whoaa...Back up there Spongey!

"I cannot comment" means just that . You follow the money Furet ....always follow the money .

The DofF had a good go at cancelling a whole load of road projects but Gort - Ennis made it through before the funding window was closed....as indeed did Castleisland last month after it was cancelled in October .

This PPP guff is simple codology from Dempsey with an important election coming up in June .

Dempsey knows that it is cheaper to build roads/rail direct right now and will be thus for the next 3 or 4 years .

The state can borrow at 5% odd where a PPP consortium would need a cash flow of 12% of the building actual cost every year for 30 years and with much of that going on insuring themselves against a default event.

The capital markets will settle down again and PPP funding will become available at reasonable rates .

But not in 2009 and not in 2010. I take it I have made myself clear ....even to spacetweek

marmurr1916

The Gort to Tuam section of the N18/N17 has gone to tender:

The N17/N18 Gort to Tuam PPP Scheme is for the design, construction, operation, maintenance and financing of approximately 57 kilometres of motorway/dual carriageway forming part of the N17/N18 national primary route together with several kilometres of associated side and link roads. It is intended that the scheme will also include the development and operation (plus associated financing) of a motorway service area. All such elements of work set out above are approximate only and may be reduced or added to by the Authority following dialogue with those Candidates selected to proceed to the next stage of the competition or otherwise at the Authority's absolute discretion. The Authority may also extend the operation and maintenance elements to include other parts of the national road network.
CPV: 45233100, 45223710, 45233000.

Sponge Bob

First post credit crunch PPP , this should be interesting .

The same length as galway ballinasloe which was pre credit crunch and according to the NRA would have cost €475m as a non PPP for the build stage .

Cost of the Project
The Authority estimates that if it were to undertake itself all the design and construction tasks that are being required of ICON that the cost would be in the order of €475m (excluding land and preliminary design costs) in Net Present Value, January 2007 values.


In addition, the costs of operating and maintaining the built roads would be in the order of €130m (Net Present Value, January 2007 values) over the 30 year period.


In relation to land and preliminary design, the Authority estimates that the cost of land, preliminary studies/design necessary to identify the route, preparation of the statutory documents (Environmental Impact Statement), advance ground investigation, initial archaeological testing and resolution, and supervision of its construction will amount to approximately €270m and will be borne by the Authority. These costs apply irrespective of the contractual means employed for the delivery of the scheme.

ICON's Financing
The majority of the funding is debt funding and ICON has arranged funding from three sources:
- Debt funding from Royal Bank of Scotland (“RBS”), Banesto, Fortis and MCC SpA (a component of Italy’s fourth-largest banking group);
- The European Investment Bank (“EIB”) – a bank owned by the member states of the European Union which invests in necessary EU infrastructure; and
- Funds from the consortium members.
In all, total bank debt of approximately €250m has been raised to fund the scheme. ICON is the party responsible for the repayment of all these debts and without recourse to the state.
ICON itself is investing substantial funding into this project by means of equity in the order of €30m from the companies included in the consortium.

Hmm

"Debt funding from Royal Bank of Scotland (“RBS”), Banesto, Fortis and MCC SpA (a component of Italy’s fourth-largest banking group"

RBS Bankrupt and Nationalised
Fortis Bankrupt and Nationalised

Doubt if they will be in on the next one .

KerranJast

childoforpheus wrote: »

Well the N20/M20 won't cost much because it looks like it is being progressed as a PPP.

Hope it goes ahead but I'd settle for bypasses of Charleville and Buttevant for the moment. Too many people dying on what effectively is an R-road. National route my arse.

spacetweek

Sponge Bob wrote: »

And it is now February and I was proven right .

Only one National Road project is starting in 2009.

It was not the N6 Galway bypass but the considerably smaller N22 Castleisland bypass.

You were completely and utterly wrong SpaceTWeek . Nevertheless I look forward to your 2010 predictions

What, were you sitting there waiting for the new year with your finger poised ready to click the Post button??!

OK, I was wrong and the gov aren't starting anything much this year (and probably next).

Considering there are 17 projects under construction at the moment, and budgets are tighter than a gnat's chuff, one start in 2009 is no longer surprising.

I still think you got lucky with your prediction. You made it back in July; most of the global financial meltdown (and most the gov's deterioration in finances) only occurred afterwards.


My 2010 predictions? Not much, 8 interurbans finishing this year, another 9 next year. No wriggle room there.

spacetweek

Let me summarise so far:

PPPs:
M17, M18, M20 etc. are being progressed this way. Spongie thinks our credit rating can't even be used as toilet paper, so nothing will happen. Though, Gort to Tuam is out to tender, so we'll find out soon enough - if no one bites, he's right, otherwise, not. The same goes for Metro North, but let's not get OT.
OTOH, surely construction companies are dying for business, not wanting to lay off staff or anything - and are more likely to take a chance.

Capital funding:
2009 and 10 are maxed out with interurbans. After that we're in the clear. Even if there are further cutbacks, we'll still have at least a billion a year to play with. I'd estimate we'll have 5 or 6 new starts per year after this. According to my list I'm keeping, there are still around 70 schemes to go nationwide, so that'll take until 2023 to clear.

KerranJast

spacetweek wrote: »

Let me summarise so far:

PPPs:
M17, M18, M20 etc. are being progressed this way. Spongie thinks our credit rating can't even be used as toilet paper, so nothing will happen. Though, Gort to Tuam is out to tender, so we'll find out soon enough - if no one bites, he's right, otherwise, not. The same goes for Metro North, but let's not get OT.
OTOH, surely construction companies are dying for business, not wanting to lay off staff or anything - and are more likely to take a chance.

Capital funding:
2009 and 10 are maxed out with interurbans. After that we're in the clear. Even if there are further cutbacks, we'll still have at least a billion a year to play with. I'd estimate we'll have 5 or 6 new starts per year after this. According to my list I'm keeping, there are still around 70 schemes to go nationwide, so that'll take until 2023 to clear.

I was surprisingly impressed with Minister Dempseys outline of the future plans on Matt Cooper last week. He emphasised that due to the downturn he'll be able to get substantial savings on infrastructure projects and wants to do more work for the same amount of money rather than sticking any savings in the Bank. AFAIK since most big road projects are part funded by the EU that money has to be spent on Infrastructure anyway so if we don't spend the money its not as if it will go towards fixing the broader shortfall anyway. May as well put it to some use.

Zoney

spacetweek wrote: »

Let me summarise so far:

PPPs:
M17, M18, M20 etc. are being progressed this way. Spongie thinks our credit rating can't even be used as toilet paper, so nothing will happen. Though, Gort to Tuam is out to tender, so we'll find out soon enough - if no one bites, he's right, otherwise, not. The same goes for Metro North, but let's not get OT.
OTOH, surely construction companies are dying for business, not wanting to lay off staff or anything - and are more likely to take a chance.

I think the point is not the construction companies wanting to get involved or not, but they are not the ones with money. It's a question of who would be willing or able to give them the finance?

Spongebob's explanation of why PPP is probably a dead duck now, seems entirely logical, having followed the economic news in the UK as well as Ireland.

serfboard

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Nobody can handle the risk on an irish Government NOT defaulting over the 30 year life of a PPP.

This obviously applies to certain infrastructure projects and to Shadow Tolls, but not to Toll roads, surely? If, for example, the M18/M17 went as a Toll could it not then go ahead?

(Off topic - Yes, I know there will be a toll on the Limerick tunnel so the Toll would have to be north M18/south M17 ... why we have the perfect spot - the interchange at Athenry )

Sponge Bob

spacetweek wrote: »

I still think you got lucky with your prediction. You made it back in July; most of the global financial meltdown (and most the gov's deterioration in finances) only occurred afterwards.

The key difference between us is that I knew that as far back as last March and said so shortly afterwards. I was about the only person prepared to say it for a long time.

The government then called an emergency budget in September to occur in October which failed to deal with anything much but it did amount to an admission that there was a problem

My 2010 predictions? Not much, 8 interurbans finishing this year, another 9 next year. No wriggle room there.

I agree 100% with SpacetWeek . That is indeed the intention .

mysterious

It's good to see that they are finally putting some attention to the N21.

But again it's absurd to build the Castleisland bypass for political reasons over a more conjested NCW and Adare bottlenecks.

Adare is one of the biggest bottlenecks in the country and is cryin out for a bypass. 17,000 vehicles a day trundle through that is 5,000 more than the next biggest bottleneck Abbeyleix and Mountrath....

Just some logic for you....

Carawaystick

Castleisland has 3 main routes from it though, Limerick, Killarney and Tralee, While I agree Adare should get a relief road asap,

Chris_533976

I've said it before. Split the M20 into three projects as it was originally planned (not two as the new plan suggests) and instead of the new Croom bypass section, do a Croom bypass M20 and an M21 Adare bypass.

Like do an M7/M8 scheme on the M20/21 to get Adare bypassed. Seems fairly logical to me.

mysterious

Chris_533976 wrote: »

I've said it before. Split the M20 into three projects as it was originally planned (not two as the new plan suggests) and instead of the new Croom bypass section, do a Croom bypass M20 and an M21 Adare bypass.

Like do an M7/M8 scheme on the M20/21 to get Adare bypassed. Seems fairly logical to me.

I've also said it.
It would be ludricous not to do so. The Current M20/M21 Junction goes very close to Adare, It seems retarded going by the current plan

God the NRA are really really slow in this regard:rolleyes: We are even showing them how to save the extra few bob ffs.

Shrugss shoulder we will just have to wait and see.

Sponge Bob

Well it turned out I was right and wrong when I started this thread .

1. One road project did go ahead in 2009
2. It was not the Galway Bypass but the Castleisland Bypass .

Today The Examiner carried this on the front page . A year behind the curve .

http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/10000-road-builders-face-dole-queue-94147.html

UP to 10,000 road builders face the dole queue in the next 12 months because the Government is abandoning commitments made in its public capital programme and the National Development Plan.

In effect, the public capital programme is being wound down and is grinding to a halt."

But what about the PPP programme ??

"All of these projects will be complete by the middle of 2010," he said. "After that the workers will be unemployed and the plant and machinery will be moved to eastern Europe. Our highly skilled and highly paid workers and professionals will be lost to the industry and to the Irish economy.

"The Irish road building industry has become extremely efficient and this capacity will be lost to our competitor economies in eastern Europe. In the past, our industry was challenged to meet the needs of the government capital programme. Our member companies responded to this challenge by increasing output, through improving efficiencies and investment in people and plants. This investment in people and in our companies will come to nothing if projects are delayed indefinitely."

This is very true. It is important that we start about one PPP a year with one of the top two Irish operators such as Roadbridge . If we do not keep the top two alive over the 2011 - 2015 timeframe ...and anything more is a luxury we cannot afford .....then it will be very difficult to reconstitute the industry in future. One 30km job every year could do that .

For the foreseeable future, out to 2015 . That is the very best we can manage .

The Word Is Bor

BAM are currently down-sizing their operations. I have heard that they are selling up to 50% of the plant. I think they are doing Castleisland on a 'management' basis rather than as a main contractor.

westtip

rekrow wrote: »

I

Why not toll all or nothing and distribute the costs across all road users?

Has been argued before - but bring in the Swiss system - extra tax disc if you want to use the motorway - once a year payment - payable by all vehicles with severe on the spot penalties (northerners and visitors from other shores to be included) just as they do in Switzerland - I have never understood this argument that only the users should pay - Sure if I go to a supermarket and buy goods transported on the motorway network aren't I using the motorwaysystem - or if it means the papers and bread get to the shops earlier in the morning aren't I using the system. The tolls do seem to penalise certain users compared to others and as for regular commuters they cripple them. Mind you we seem pretty wrapped into this extra tax system - but would be interesting to see the figures if they had gone for a swiss system - just how much would the extra tax disc have cost? - At the moment I wonder how many non jurisdiction vehicles actually pay the e toll on the M50 for example???? So how much are the rest of th M50 users subsidising the out of state drivers?

Chris_533976

If (and I mean IF) the five PPPs go ahead, then it'll keep things going for a while, from looking at the document pile I have heres how things will pan out IF THEY GO WELL.

I only have the anticipated 'final contract award' dates, nothing more than that ATM. Tho one can assume construction will begin soon after.

1) M17/N18 Gort - Athenry - October 2010
2) N11 Arklow - Rathnew & N7 Newlands Cross - November 2010
3) M11 Enniscorthy bypass & N25 New Ross - March 2011
4) M20 South (Blarney - Buttevant) & N22 Cork NRR North - Q2 2011
5) M20 North (Buttevant - Croom) & N21 Adare Bypass - Q2 2011**

** I've heard this may be delayed by 6 months due to amendments to the N21 scheme.

Also, there is a CHANCE (and DONT quote me on this) that the N6 Galway Outer bypass (whats been approved of it anyway) will be added to the PPP list soon. I've heard rumours on the grapevine. My guess (again DONT quote me on this) is that it would be added to the N7 Newlands / N11 Arklow one.

crocro

Are all the PPP roads to be tolled?