Friday and Weekend Weather (Significant rainfall)

M.T. Cranium

Based on the current model guidance, tomorrow should be relatively quiet for Ireland under a weak ridge and westerly flow backing to southerly late in the day, still might see one or two isolated thundershowers in central portions.

Friday is looking like the onset of a very strong wind and rain event almost like a tropical storm in its intensity, although without the tropical core.

Winds are likely to rise rapidly in the south during the morning to ESE 30-50 mph and some higher gusts in exposed coastal locations to 65 mph, then that sort of wind will spread north into all other districts before evening, with heavy rain sweeping north with that, 30 to 50 mms, possibly even more in one or two south central locations (70 mms).

The interesting thing is that this storm then weakens and almost dies out right over central Ireland throughout the weekend, so the strong winds will be deflected mostly out to sea except for Ulster perhaps, and a sort of expanding calm centre will develop with local showers each day. The remnants of this storm are then shown reversing slowly to the S.W. and then drifting away into France next week, to the flow over Ireland should become light NE to N for a while, then more NNW before another warmer ridge develops next week.

Supercell

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The interesting thing is that this storm then weakens and almost dies out right over central Ireland

MT thats a damp day , except in Dublin where it drizzles a bit.

Not really unusual.

rc28

Supercell wrote: »

MT thats a damp day , except in Dublin where it drizzles a bit.

Not really unusual.

Are you calling 70mm in a day 'not really unusual'? Or have I misunderstood your post.

M.T. Cranium

I took it as ironic after the weather this past few weeks in Ireland. 70 mms won't entirely escape notice even on a Friday evening. :cool:

Snowbie

Posts moved.
This event deserves a thread of its own.

Danno

Any hope that this could stay to the south and miss us?

M.T. Cranium

I see the 18z GFS brings the centre no further north than the southwest coast before stalling it, so that would make Saturday a more windy day across at least the northern and central two-thirds of Ireland, the slack winds and showery regime would be confined to the south. No doubt there will be more slight changes ahead but this thing is already well underway in the central Atlantic ... in Cork and Waterford would be looking for the strong winds around 0700-1100 on Friday, further east and north more like 0900-1400 in the south and 1200-1800 in Dublin and points west. Then it should remain fairly windy with the strongest winds spreading further north.

Danno

Cut

Danno

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I see the 18z GFS brings the centre no further north than the southwest coast before stalling it, so that would make Saturday a more windy day across at least the northern and central two-thirds of Ireland, the slack winds and showery regime would be confined to the south. No doubt there will be more slight changes ahead but this thing is already well underway in the central Atlantic ... in Cork and Waterford would be looking for the strong winds around 0700-1100 on Friday, further east and north more like 0900-1400 in the south and 1200-1800 in Dublin and points west. Then it should remain fairly windy with the strongest winds spreading further north.

Great. :mad:

Outdoor activity for 10am Saturday morning. Gonna be soaked I guess.

nacho libre

it looks like west and north west maybe the places to be this weekend if you're after any of the good/fine weather that maybe going.

Supercell

rc28 wrote: »

Are you calling 70mm in a day 'not really unusual'? Or have I misunderstood your post.

It was a bit tongue in cheek given the summer weather these last couple of years.

Someone remind me what summer is supposed to be like?

LEIN

Time to get last years ark out again i think!

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

Someone remind me what summer is supposed to be like?

A typical Irish summer scene.

darkman2

We are looking at more or less continuous rain from Friday through to Sunday - heavy or very heavy at time with flooding likely. Might get unusually windy for the time of year and the East coast seems the place to avoid.


http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=65412


Dont see a chart like that too often

rc28

Are we still looking at up to 70mm? The ground is pretty sodden here after todays and yesterday's downpours.

mike65

Last sunday I remarked to the sisters other half that Saturday must have been the wettest summer day since "Hurricane" Charlie, well I was probably wrong and even I was right I'll be wrong by Sunday.

I can't belive this sh-i-te - /shakes fist at jetstream

Mike.

billy the squid

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A typical Irish summer scene.

I see you got the snaps from Kilkee developed

ch750536

Mrs Ch750536 just informed me we are on a family day out to Stonehall Farm & Curraghchase all day Saturday with the local mother & baby group.

'Really. Better buy some boots.'

Deep Easterly

With the low forecast to bring a slack flow over Ireland, always the chance of thunderstorms breaking out: Fax for sunday 12 noon:



ECMWF/Hirlam for the sunday morning:



Defo potential over the next few days for a rumble or two. While all areas could be at risk, favoured spots seem to be all those east of a line drawn between Malin and Valentia due to slackest winds and any sunshine increasing instability.

I would be happier if Snowbie could back me up on this.

Snowbie

For the majority of the country the surface winds be cyclonic variable but a NE flow right down the west. Now having looked at the GFS potential the Wind shear is favourable out west and maximum ascending air in the east where the LP centre be situated. ie:slow moving short lifespan showers/ storms in east and lengthy/severe storms out west due to shear if storms where to occur.

All depending on cloud cover and surface warming to aid for both the above.:)

Supercell

Looking at the radar sequence the rainfall seems to be moving more north than east currently.
I just cleaned and re-levelled my rain guage this afternon and am eagerly awaiting the rain!

Hal1

It better hold off at least another hour till I'm finished doing my decking, and keep pushing north instead of NE. :P

DublinWriter

I held off doing a few outside jobs around the house based on Met Eireann's 3-day forecast of rain today that never appeared.

My dodgy right-knee is a better forecaster of the weather than Met Eireann. I call it dry in the East all day tomorrow (Saturday).

MisterAnarchy

mike65 wrote: »

Last sunday I remarked to the sisters other half that Saturday must have been the wettest summer day since "Hurricane" Charlie, well I was probably wrong and even I was right I'll be wrong by Sunday.

I can't belive this sh-i-te - /shakes fist at jetstream

Mike.

I am giving serious thought to emigrating.
This climate is just unbearable now.
The only noticeable difference between our seasons now is the temperature.
Same wind and rain all year round.:eek:

Supercell

I'm having doubts about the totals from this system here, looks very unorganised and fragmenting on the radar.
Hopefully will get something measurable as i think i've been undereading recently and relevelled and cleaned the station today.

Supercell

Some very heavy rain showing up off Wexford on the UK radar :- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

This may track up along the east coast later, would guess around 23-24:00 for Dublin.

Snowbie

It certainly does have our name on it.

lucernarian

The wicklow mountains would certainly take the sting of the heavy rain. Significant rainfall indeed:rolleyes:

While the radar blob will make landfall and give the southeast some rain, travelling over land would not help it, and given this sea breeze, a cooler than usual sea on its windward side to sustain it. And the biggest factor of all, a lack of heat from the sun and a cool enough atmosphere in front of the trough.

Overplayed event IMO.

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

The wicklow mountains would certainly take the sting of the heavy rain. Significant rainfall indeed:rolleyes:

While the radar blob will make landfall and give the southeast some rain, travelling over land would not help it, and given this sea breeze, a cooler than usual sea on its windward side to sustain it. And the biggest factor of all, a lack of heat from the sun and a cool enough atmosphere in front of the trough.

Overplayed event IMO.

I'm hoping they do, this system has delivered a disappointing 1.2mm here so far...that's shower territory, pathetic.

Deep Easterly

"Rainband" passed through. A whopping 0.5mm dumped in an hour. Had 2.1mm from a 5 minuite shower yesterday afternoon. Only interesting feature is that there is a morose yellow hue out, bringing out the greeneess of the fields and trees around. Winds have fallen down to nothing.

mike65

I'd love to see a yellow hue, its still tipping down here, the wind is pretty gusty at times too.

Mike.