2008 NFL Draft

davyjose

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

I could be wrong but I think Chucky meant in the grand scheme of things that year the colts were still sh*t so he really didnt make an instant impact. As an individual yeah defo every right to be proud as a rookie. But then again on the flipside he did make an instant impact but the rest of the team didnt live up to the challenge.

Yeah but it was a starting point. Like I just said, there's no way the Dolphins will do anything next season, regardless of whether they buy a Ryan or Long or anyone else.
But the Colts would still have been sh!t to this day if they hadn't picked Manning in the '98 draft.

davyjose

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

I agree with you. Why Ryan makes sense to the Falcons imo as they have offloaded all the old and want to bring in all new players build a rookie team around a rookie QB that has talent. Ah sure we are going to have to wait and see what happens roll on the Draft.

Yeah, exactly. Someone will get him, and make pretty good use of him. Who knows, there could be another genius 199th pick out there - anyone remember who was 1st pick in '00 :pac:

tallaghtoutlaws

davyjose wrote: »

Yeah but it was a starting point. Like I just said, there's no way the Dolphins will do anything next season, regardless of whether they buy a Ryan or Long or anyone else.
But the Colts would still have been sh!t to this day if they hadn't picked Manning in the '98 draft.

Dolphins stand a better chance if they stay away from a QB though madness if they take Ryan as they will have no protection for him so it will in effect not make Ryan any better as he will be on the dirt all season long. Taking an O-lineman makes more sense in Jake Long or strengthing their D.

Oh and the 1st pick in 2000 if I can remember Courtney Brown or Lavar Arrington cant remember which too lazy to google.

jdivision

davyjose wrote: »

To take jdivisions point about Mannings Rookie season and the Colts finishing 3-13 - they finished 13-3 the very next.

Edgerrin James played a fairly big role in that too.

Overall the thing is I don't think Ryan is a slam dunk. He could be another Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili smith etc. He could be great but I don't think it's enough of a given to justify the investment.

The other thing to remember is the Colts drafted Tarik Glen the year previous to Manning. He had somebody quality to protect his blindside. If the Dolphins don't take J Long they won't. it'll be like David Carr in texas

tallaghtoutlaws

jdivision wrote: »

He could be great but I don't think it's enough of a given to justify the investment.

Who is enough of a given in any draft though?

heyjude

The Raiders have reportedly reached agreement with the Falcons on a trade for CB DeAngelo Hall in exchange for the Raiders second round draft pick, subject to the Raiders agreeing a contract with Hall. see http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3295344

This leaves the Raiders with just four draft picks this year and only one pick on day one(the 4th pick overall). This suggests to me that either they are trading down or are planning to take McFadden and try to deal him to another team for extra picks.

Taking Hall doesn't make sense to me, he ties up loads of cap space and the secondary is already the strongest part of their D.

heyjude

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Who is enough of a given in any draft though?

True, the draft is a really crap shoot, but I did see figures last year that analysed the percentage success rate of first round draft picks in all positions over a number of years and tracked the percentage that made the pro bowl and QBs had the lowest percentage of any position. So choosing a QB in the first round is riskier than selecting any other position.

There are no guarantees and Matt Ryan is as likely to turn out like Ryan Leaf as Peyton Manning. It is also worthwhile remembering that Brett Favre was a second round pick, Joe Montana was a third round pick and Tom Brady was a sixth round pick, so you can find great Quarterbacks outside the first round.

davyjose

You know, I'm starting to see wat you're saying Tallaght, it's very likely that the dolphins will get an early pick next year too, and I'm sure they know it. So yeah, get a QB as the last piece of the puzzle maybe. Maybe even in next years free agency.
Ah yeah, but the point I was making about the '00 draft is obvious. Pick #199 turning out to be a damn-sight more important than the 198 picks before him.

BizzyC

Here's how I see the top picks at the moment:

1 - Chris Long - DE
2 - Jake Long - OL
3 - Mat Ryan - QB
4 - Darren McFadden - RB
5 - Glenn Dorsey - DT
6 - Vernon Gholston - LB
7 - Not sure about the Pats, probably gonna be a CB or LB...
8 - Cedric Ellis - DT
9 - Chris Williams - OL
10 - Dont know much about the Saints currently...

jdivision

Not bad Carl but I think Clady goes before Williams, Saints may take Cromartie-Rodgers

BizzyC

jdivision wrote: »

Not bad Carl but I think Clady goes before Williams, Saints may take Cromartie-Rodgers

Yes, assuming the Pats take McKelvin before him though...not too sure who the pats will take. They always end up with someone other than who I considered pre-draft. It'll probably be easier to predict no.7 instead of no.32 though.

LuckyLloyd

The Jets have been very active in Free Agency and have plugged our gaping leaks on the lines. At the moment, our highest priorities in the draft would be LB or CB. As such, I can see us trading down if possible.

jdivision

The Jets are having wet dreams about Gholston. I'd say the Pats are too. Be interesting to see if Pats trade up. I can see Kansas trading down to just before Carolina in order to take Clady.

BizzyC

jdivision wrote: »

The Jets are having wet dreams about Gholston. I'd say the Pats are too. Be interesting to see if Pats trade up. I can see Kansas trading down to just before Carolina in order to take Clady.

Yeah, I'd say Pats will most likely go for Gholston or McKelvin.

kev_s88

looking like the Jaguars are gonna try trade up to get a premier DE.

man that makes me happy

The jock

The Jets should have a good season.They got Alan Fanceca from my steelers who will open up alot of running lanes.They also could get either Long or McFadden in draft.Imagine McFadden in the backfield with Faneca blocking for him.

Chucky the tree

Both Long's will be long gone by the time the jets are on the clock.

tallaghtoutlaws

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Both Long's will be long gone by the time the jets are on the clock.

No Pun intended eh?

Manny7

BizzyC wrote: »

Yeah, I'd say Pats will most likely go for Gholston or McKelvin.

I don't think McKelvin will be the pick, I can't see the Pats taking a cornerback at 7; it doesn't make sense to let Samuel go and then spend a ton of money trying to replace him with someone else when you could just have spent the money to keep him. If Gholston's there I'd say they'll take him. Cue Jets spoiling that though...

tallaghtoutlaws

Manny7 wrote: »

I don't think McKelvin will be the pick, I can't see the Pats taking a cornerback at 7; it doesn't make sense to let Samuel go and then spend a ton of money trying to replace him with someone else when you could just have spent the money to keep him. If Gholston's there I'd say they'll take him. Cue Jets spoiling that though...

The kind of money McKelvin would get would be alot less than Samuel was looking for though. A rookie like McKelvin wont get a huge contract. It wont dent the Pats Salary cap that much taking any of the picks in the first round.

Manny7

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

The kind of money McKelvin would get would be alot less than Samuel was looking for though. A rookie like McKelvin wont get a huge contract. It wont dent the Pats Salary cap that much taking any of the picks in the first round.

True, the salary cap charge would be less this year, but the guaranteed money would be about the same. Adrian Peterson at #7 last year got $17m guaranteed with an average of $6-7m a year, Samuel got $20m with an average of $9.5m a year. Both are 6 year deals so say there's a difference of $3m a year between a rookie CB and Samuel; I'd prefer to keep the proven starter rather than risk a rookie for that difference.

Of course the big difference would be in the cap hit as you say; I can't find the exact breakdown of Peterson's rookie year but it looks like Samuel will have a hit this year of $9m which is pretty high.

Leaving the cap hit aside, I just don't think the Patriots see the value in picking a corner in the top 10 for their system; Belichick seems to prefer drafting them in the mid rounds (ie Samuel 4th, Hobbs 3rd) or picking up cheap older players (Stuarks, Poole, all those guys who have come in this summer). Maybe if there was one outstanding player at corner but I'm not sure any of the top 4-5 this year really stand out from each other.

tallaghtoutlaws

Manny7 wrote: »

True, the salary cap charge would be less this year, but the guaranteed money would be about the same. Adrian Peterson at #7 last year got $17m guaranteed with an average of $6-7m a year, Samuel got $20m with an average of $9.5m a year. Both are 6 year deals so say there's a difference of $3m a year between a rookie CB and Samuel; I'd prefer to keep the proven starter rather than risk a rookie for that difference.

Of course the big difference would be in the cap hit as you say; I can't find the exact breakdown of Peterson's rookie year but it looks like Samuel will have a hit this year of $9m which is pretty high.

Leaving the cap hit aside, I just don't think the Patriots see the value in picking a corner in the top 10 for their system; Belichick seems to prefer drafting them in the mid rounds (ie Samuel 4th, Hobbs 3rd) or picking up cheap older players (Stuarks, Poole, all those guys who have come in this summer). Maybe if there was one outstanding player at corner but I'm not sure any of the top 4-5 this year really stand out from each other.

But dont forget not all players will get the same quality contracts as Peterson. McKelvin wont get anything near what Peterson got. As for Bill taking mid rounds that was true of the old Bill back when he was building the team. Dont forget we took Brandon Merriweather in the 1st round and traded the 2nd for Moss. Merriweather is a safety now but will most likely drop back in as a corner as he played there through High School and as a freshman in college.

This year if the Pats are to compete they need to be sure of talent and if Bill cant find it in the lower rounds which Im sure they have projected in their own heads and scouted potential players then he will take McKelvin. Then again how are any of us to second guess Bill as he was always known for taking Tight Ends in the 1st and 2nd rounds in recent years. Ask yourself if he doesnt take a Corner in the 1st round what else will he take. Patriots really need Linebackers, Safeties and Corners right now and maybe a backup running back as Faulk is getting old and morris is a crock. Who knows.:)

Manny7

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Ask yourself if he doesnt take a Corner in the 1st round what else will he take. QUOTE]

Linebacker linebacker linebacker. Although let's face it, it's going to be either a tight end or a guard isn't it

Seriously though, while I doubt they'll take a corner unless they trade down, I wouldn't bet anything against it, like you said trying to predict Belichick's drafts is next to impossible.

BizzyC

Manny7 wrote: »

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Ask yourself if he doesnt take a Corner in the 1st round what else will he take. QUOTE]

Linebacker linebacker linebacker. Although let's face it, it's going to be either a tight end or a guard isn't it

Seriously though, while I doubt they'll take a corner unless they trade down, I wouldn't bet anything against it, like you said trying to predict Belichick's drafts is next to impossible.

I wouldn't say McKelvin isn't an option.
Wilson, Samuel and Gay left and Harrison is getting old
Merriweather will probably play more with their departures and they picked up some FA's, but they still need another cover corner to replace Samuel.

Linebacker and Corner are the two most pressing needs and really the only positions I can see a 1st round pick getting used on. If Gholston is gone, then the only real options who'll deliver any kind of value except for CB are OL, DL and RB, all positions where the Pats dont need such a high pick.

jdivision

Could do with a new RT to be honest but yeah other positions should be a much higher priority

Precociousg

This is my top 10 for what its worth.
Dolphins: Chris Long, Virginia
Rams: Jake Long, Michigan
Falcons: Glenn Dorsey, LSU
Oakland: Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Chiefs: Sedrick Ellis, USC
Jets: Vernon Gholston, OSU
Pats: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, TSU
Ravens: Matt Ryan, Boston Coll
Bengals: Keith Rivers, USC
Saints: Leodis Mckelvin, Troy State

tallaghtoutlaws

Precociousg wrote: »

This is my top 10 for what its worth.
Dolphins: Chris Long, Virginia
Rams: Jake Long, Michigan
Falcons: Glenn Dorsey, LSU
Oakland: Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Chiefs: Sedrick Ellis, USC
Jets: Vernon Gholston, OSU
Pats: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, TSU
Ravens: Matt Ryan, Boston Coll
Bengals: Keith Rivers, USC
Saints: Leodis Mckelvin, Troy State

Falcons would be idiots in my opinion to pass up Ryan as they need a QB alright they could hope to get one of the lesser value QB's in the second round but what if other teams are thinking the same way. With bugger all QB's left in the free agency that you could even think of building an offence on they would be mad to pass up Ryan's talents.

I have tried my own top ten but you know what there are so many good players in the draft and so many gaps that the top pickers need to fill its hard to say there is even doubts over the phins taking either of the longs as of yesterday alot of pundits now saying Gholston again. Thats why I love the draft cant wait.

Dodge

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Falcons would be idiots in my opinion to pass up Ryan as they need a QB alright they could hope to get one of the lesser value QB's in the second round but what if other teams are thinking the same way.

I think Atlanta have 7 of the top 100 picks in the draft. Given their pourous O line, its probably too big an ask to start Ryan straight off so they'll probably look to fill their many other needs and catch a QB somewhere lower

agree with your comments on the draft though. This year, more than ever I feel, its completely up in the air

tallaghtoutlaws

Dodge wrote: »

I think Atlanta have 7 of the top 100 picks in the draft. Given their pourous O line, its probably too big an ask to start Ryan straight off so they'll probably look to fill their many other needs and catch a QB somewhere lower

agree with your comments on the draft though. This year, more than ever I feel, its completely up in the air

I agree their O-line is terrible but every report you read about the falcons the interests they have are on Gholston or Dorsey Defensive players in general. They need to fill that offensive void from last year and wasting the first pick on a top end defensive player is a waste especially when their biggest weakness is the lack of an offense to begin with. By drafting a top end QB you take a semi decent free agent QB for 1 year and then find O-linemen lower down the draft at least then you still have the Quality QB. Like someone said they will take long but I cant imagine him going past 1 or 2.

It will be very interesting though to see what they do and what the rest of the teams do going to be one of those interesting drafts.

Dodge

I'm not saying they shouldn't pick Ryan, I'm just agreeing with your post about the lack of QBs in free agency, and if they don't get somebody Ryan may be forced to play from the off. Unless they dramtically improve that O line, he'd be destroyed. Without being harsh he's not too likely to learn much from the likes of Harrington etc either