WSOP exit hand

opr

robinlacey wrote:

i see what you are saying in that i would prefer to be restealing at this stage too,but sikes has shown that pushing here is a +ev spot,so even if you're not sure about the idea of bet/calling why would you not just push?

i don't see how you could pass up a +ev spot here.

Seconded .... really good post from Lloyd that Robin has just highlighted.

Surely it can be shown that its more +EV to raise and call the allin than to shove.

Opr

MrPillowTalk

robinlacey wrote:

i see what you are saying in that i would prefer to be restealing at this stage too,but sikes has shown that pushing here is a +ev spot,so even if you're not sure about the idea of bet/calling why would you not just push?

i don't see how you could pass up a +ev spot here.

Im conflicted over what is the best line, I think I prefer folding because I feel that allthough we pick up the pot a lot of the time uncontested, if we are called we are probably toast.

Meh given the stack sizes theres not much in it either way.

robinlacey

opr wrote:

Surely it can be shown that its more +EV to raise and call the allin than to shove.

Opr

while i personally strongly feel that that is the case, i don't know how comprehensively you can show it,since it comes down to a wildly subjective view of what the blinds' 3betting ranges are here. i think they are only slightly narrower than any two cards,other good players think they are much much tighter than that,so its hard to say really.

nicnicnic

opr wrote:

Surely it can be shown that its more +EV to raise and call the allin than to shove.

Opr

probably to many subjective variables for example the shove takes the stop and go out of the equation how can this be quantified.

LuckyLloyd

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mrflash

really, this situation was already played out and will be played out many times again, the reason that poker is such a great game and challenge is that no two players think exactly the same and as such never play the same, you have the so called experts who analyse hands, but they all think differently as well. so the move depends on the player, his style of play and the players behind him and the history between those players. in some instances, for example, if you have a loose agressive player left to act as in this instance, he might have sucked out on you a couple of times, and often will call with any two cards because he has had a good run against a particular player. if you played the same hand at twenty different wsop tables with two loose agressive players left to act, regardless of how you play the hand, the actions of those behind would differ probably around 40% of the time. so really there is no proper way to play the hand, i say shove, and i gave my reasoning earlier, and that differs from other people who will say shove for different reasons, and those who say raise will not agree on why either. so basically its just a good discussion between players. there is no absolute correct way to play the hand.

sikes

The calling range in my calc is the worst possible range for us, and as soon as he deviates from that range, the push becomes far more profitable.

The thing we need to know is what is the difference between his calling range for the push and his range for reraising us. To find that out we need to know what our range for open raising with this stack from the button as seen by him. I would doubt our range is going to be a very wide at all, and therefore he can hardly believe he has much FE, and for that reason, the difference, i believe, will be quite small.

While raising and calling in a vacuum is obviously superior, as RT suggested, we should start looking at meta considerations.

nicnicnic

LuckyLloyd wrote:

**** the stop and go. If I raise with the intention of calling pre - flop I will tend to call an open - shove from one of the blinds on practically EVERY flop.

with A10 interesting

LuckyLloyd

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pumpkinpints

nicnicnic wrote:

with A10 interesting

im nearly 90% certain that there is no chance he calls off his stack with AT high. on a K78 flop for example you happily call off, that ridiculous and loses you a lot of credibilty. why would you call, what exactly are you goin to be beating?

mrflash

i dont think we should look for a career as golf experts, although i have sergio and kj choi backed as well. i ended up backing eight golfers on betfair, including the ingenius picks of howell, fasth and mahan. lol, will still make a nice profit if sergio hangs on, but afraid of stricker.

pumpkinpints

LuckyLloyd wrote:

- you should give yourself all five cards.

so shove.

nicnicnic

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Because Nick - if you felt you were going to call pre - flop against an agressive player because you were ahead of his expected range, and he calls and open shoves (STOP n GO time alarm bells would be ringing!!) - you should give yourself all five cards.

I agree but when the gun is put to your head its not an easy call with A10 and none of it, I generally jib it

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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robinlacey

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Because Nick - if you felt you were going to call pre - flop against an agressive player because you were ahead of his expected range, and he calls and open shoves (STOP n GO time alarm bells would be ringing!!) - you should give yourself all five cards.

i'm a little out of the tournament loop,but don't people usually stop 'n go with pocket pairs?

pumpkinpints

robinlacey wrote:

i'm a little out of the tournament loop,but don't people usually stop 'n go with pocket pairs?

QFT, or maybe a bad player with AQ i absolutley never call with AT here, maybe AK but never AT, because we might only be drawing to Aces and even then we mightnt be good.

nicnicnic

mrflash wrote:

i dont think we should look for a career as golf experts, although i have sergio and kj choi backed as well. i ended up backing eight golfers on betfair, including the ingenius picks of howell, fasth and mahan. lol, will still make a nice profit if sergio hangs on, but afraid of stricker.

hope he wins for you,

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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phantom_lord

i thought the stop and go ceased to be an effective tactic long ago?

LuckyLloyd

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Hitman Actual

sikes wrote:

The thing we need to know is what is the difference between his calling range for the push and his range for reraising us.

Yes. This is exactly where the (extra) profitabilty comes from. But because KP has been pushing for the last few orbits, then the difference in pushing/'calling a push' range gets much tighter. So I think that's where the debate comes in...

pumpkinpints

LuckyLloyd wrote:

The stop and go is something that is used with less and less and frequency these days anyway.

so why are you calling off your stack with AT again?