WSOP exit hand

kpnuts

35 minutes left on Day 2 of main event.

Blinds 1,200-2,400 with 300 running ante.

9-handed, so pot = 6,300.

I've got 38,600 chips, average stack is 140k approx.

I'm on the button. Small and big blinds both well chipped up LAGs, each playing 5/6 pots per orbit. A couple of levels earlier I open shoved from MP for 23,000 with AJ and the big blind in this hand (he was on button when I shoved the AJ) doubled me up when he called with KTs. And just two orbits ago, I shoved (and showed) AK from button after 2 EP limpers.

What's my play with ATo now on the button, folded around to me?

valor

raise to the amount that looks the weakest to these laggs in teh blinds and insta call a shove.

Hectorjelly

With no history in this spot I would make it 7,200 to go and fold to a shove unless either player seems paticularly shove happy. If I had the slightest reason to think they might be making a play I would call, but given your history I dont see one.

Daithio

Hectorjelly wrote:

With no history in this spot I would make it 7,200 to go and fold to a shove unless either player seems paticularly shove happy. If I had the slightest reason to think they might be making a play I would call, but given your history I dont see one.

I like that line.

White Knight

C please Bob

a) With the history,as given, if you shove you only get called by a better Ace or a pair. b) I do not like committing 1/4 of your chips if you are going to fold. c) I go for the weak a$$ option of doing a bit of acting and welling up and then just call and fold to any raise.

Jaden

White Knight wrote:

I go for the weak a$$ option of doing a bit of acting and welling up and then just call and fold to any raise.

You'd limp and then fold A,T to a raise with a short stack, 3 handed? The pot is almost 20% of your stack, and you're about to go through the blinds.

Welcome to raiseville, population - you. 7.5K seems good.

bops

against those two I either push or fold

if you raise i can see one of them comming ott with a worse/better hand and you'll be forced to call probably in a 60/40 spot against a stupid KJ or something (which they will hit)

pushing takes away their option of trying to get you to fold a marginal hand and i'd be very happy to pick up the 6300 with AT

but if you are happy to go in 60/40 then raise - i wouldn't be though coz i don't believe in +EV in these situations!

cardshark202

Hectorjelly wrote:

With no history in this spot I would make it 7,200 to go and fold to a shove unless either player seems paticularly shove happy. If I had the slightest reason to think they might be making a play I would call, but given your history I dont see one.

I think raising and folding to a shove is very bad here, I prefer to shove myself given the amount in the middle. I would prefer your line if I was raising from MP.

LuckyLloyd

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cardshark202

I think either pushing or raising and calling all in are fine. Pushing and getting through increases our stack by more than 10%. Actually I think I prefer just raising normally but I can't see how pushing is much of a mistake.

sikes

I would shove, its definatly profitable. Im not sure about raising and folding especially against two lags.

Hectorjelly

The problem with shoving is you risk 38.6K to win 6k. I think given the history of the last few hands that you are unlikely to be called by worse. We shoved for less chips with AJ and AK, so they are going to think our range is something like AJ or better. It may be slightly profitable but I doubt it, unless their calling ranges are moronic.

Also the huge problem with shoving is you make it hard for them to make a big mistake by repushing with an awful hand like k2 or something, I think if you want to get all in raising and calling a push is infinitely superiour to just pushing. I think pushing is very weak and a bad option in this spot. You are just making it very difficult to get called by a worse hand and making it easy for them to fold when you have them beat.

So if you think the blind are likely to get it in with a worse hand raise and call a shove. I'm not convinced of that and so slightly prefer raising and folding. I know it doesn't see, a great line, but we are actually in a horrible spot and all options are slightly unappealing. Its horrible because of the stack sizes, and the fact that although we are pretty sure we have the best hand, if all the money gets in we probably don't. If we had less chips I would definitely push.

Bops no offence but your advice is awful. Probably not as bad as open limping though lol.

Van Dice

I agree with virtually everything LuckyLloyd wrote. Lucky for me he spent the time typing it whereas I only thought it lol

BigCityBanker

how is open folding in this spot?

LuckyLloyd

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pumpkinpints

You have an M of 6 so pushing with a hand which is most likely best is prob +ev imo. You have already been looked up by KT and i dont think that they will fold pocket pairs or QJ+ if they are LAGs then they will probably not be risk adverse and "give you a run". Most LAGs are bad players imo and think that having a big tank is excuse enough to gamble. I think if called expect Axs+,PP, QJ+. I dont like Raising and folding, although a raise should look stronger, im not sure it will, you might simply look scared.

Van Dice

BigCityBanker wrote:

how is open folding in this spot?

It's good if you're a philanthropist

LuckyLloyd

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sikes

Pushing here is really profitable.

How about we give them a calling range that beats us always 88+, AJo+, AJs+

That range is dealt 6.8% of the time. So say 13.6% of the time we get looked up, this obviously ignores the times they both have something, but we will ignore that possibility.

so the ev of pushing looks something like this.

13.6%(we get called and still have 29.5% equity) 86.4%( we pick up the blinds and antes and have a 44900 stack.

=SUM(0.136*(0.705*(0)+0.295*(83500))+0.864*(6300+38600))

42143.62

Taking the pot down now preflop without showdown is great news.

Unless im missing something.

LuckyLloyd

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sikes

Its more difficult to quantify just raising, but I dont want to induce a shove and call ATo, the hand isnt strong enough to warrant it, imo, while leaving him the options to call the flop or whatever.

Removing their option to push over us is never a losing play for us. Yeah, we might be passing up a bit of value, how we calculate that im not sure, but when in doubt in this situation we can shove, knowing that it is a really really profitable play. Also im not sure how weak raising to 7.2k is going to look that we can induce shoves from weaker As and Ks.

If we take the blinds down now, we have a beautiful sized stack to resteal the next loose raiser, again, getting into a position to take more chips down preflop without a showdown.

LuckyLloyd

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sikes

I guess you can get a feel for the situation when playing. My point is that pushing is and always will be profitable, regardless of the sb and bbs action.

LuckyLloyd

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Hectorjelly

sikes wrote:

Its more difficult to quantify just raising, but I dont want to induce a shove and call ATo, the hand isnt strong enough to warrant it

this is the problem with your argument. It makes no sense whatsover.

robinlacey

i like raising to induce a shove,with shoving in distant second.

i think anything else is pretty bad to be honest.

sikes

Hectorjelly wrote:

this is the problem with your argument. It makes no sense whatsover.

My argument is that pushing is vastly profitable, and it is, there's no problem there.

It is more difficult to quantify just raising, especially when we have no feel for the table.

but I dont want to induce a shove and call ATo, the hand isnt strong enough to warrant it

This was written in a rush and obvioulsy makes no sense, however, there was some logic to that sentence that im failing to record it just came out wrong. It wasn't so much reffering to this hand as such. I dont mind raising to induce a shove, it really depends, however, a raise and fold would be terrible and my main point and only point was that pushing is very very profitable.

pumpkinpints

robinlacey wrote:

i like raising to induce a shove,with shoving in distant second.

i think anything else is pretty bad to be honest.

why is everyone so delighted to get it all in with ATo, i dont think that many players shove over the top of shortstacks small raises with that wide a range. One one hand we are saying raise to 7-8K because it looks stronger, and on the other we are saying range to induce a shove. If we look stronger and still induce a shove then we are certainly beat.

Also for example if KPs hand was JTs, would everyone raise the same and still call the shove, or would they fold, or shove?

robinlacey

i never said raise to look stronger,i dunno who did but it has nothing to do with my post.

i am raising to induce a push (indeed i want my raise to look as weak as possible) because i think a random modern tournament player's reraising range here is crushed by AT,even without kp's read that both blinds are laggy and have decent stacks.

with JTs i would just push.

pumpkinpints

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Ugh. A bad "LAG" in a local Irish club is significantly different to a capable and aggressive tournament player. I think the above post is indicative of the point made by Ste05 and Phantom Lord in regards to the way the terms "LAG" and "TAG" are thrown about incorrectly. And are misunderstood and mislabelled in relation to live Irish players.


To the poster above. KP said they were agressive. He didn't say they were retarded. As such, they are not going to call a 6x the pot push with QJ because they "can afford to gamble". But they might come over the top and set you all - in with that hand if they believe they can get you to fold.

Re - read Hector's post above for a clear explanation of why open - shoving is not good.

I dissgree with much of what you have said. Firstly i think QJ is obviously at the very bottom of their range for calling, but we havent exactly got a huge stack, and like when the blinds are 100-200 with no ante and someone shoves for 1800 we still call with a wide range even though its "6 times the pot" becuase we know that good players are capable of making moves with ATC in that spot and QJ will fare well against ATC.
For example in the Watkinson table when he was shoving all in everyhand at the bubble when he had the table covered players there should call with QJs there are against a random hand its +ev, even more so with so with so much in the middle.

Pokerstove wrote:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.666% 57.45% 01.22% 19280010484 408917804.00 { QJs, QJo }
Hand 1: 41.334% 40.12% 01.22% 13463312308 408917804.00 { random }

We can still be in good shape when we push and are called.

If the SB/BB think that Kp pushes ATC here then i think its feasible that he calls with such a wide range.

I also think pushing will fold out the smae amount of hands that will come over the top of our raise. i dont think many clever players will push OTT with 89s etc when it is so obvious you are committed. if KP has an image of a player who knows anythign about the game and is in any way decent then he cannot ever be expected to fold so going OTT with weaker hands would be madness.

Ugh. A bad "LAG" in a local Irish club is significantly different to a capable and aggressive tournament player. I think the above post is indicative of the point made by Ste05 and Phantom Lord in regards to the way the terms "LAG" and "TAG" are thrown about incorrectly. And are misunderstood and mislabelled in relation to live Irish players.

I more than understand the difference between the two, and your comment reeks with condescension. i also agree with the comments made my the above posters and agree with it, it is simply not the case here. IT is a well known fact that there are not that many good LAGs so if it is not stated otherwise i will assume a LAG to be a bad player, call it a flaw, i dont really care, most of the time i am correct.
the mistake made there is almost the same as when you constantly criticise and disregard the advice of posters you dont know simply because of post count.

sikes

by raising to 7k we are giving rope to two lags to try to take the pot away from us by shoving. We know they have no FE, but they dont, and in their mind shoving ATC could be profitable.

EDIT: robin got there before me, whats with boards tonight?

kpnuts

My view at the time was, and still is, that if I raise in this spot then I have to call reraise because both the blinds would have been only too happy to stick me in with KJs, 89s. Given that likelihood, I cannot pass after putting a quarter of my stack in the middle. If I did, I'd have death-zone M of just 4.5 (and down to 3.5 in 2 hands' time after I pay my blinds... no walks for shorties at WSOP ME!)

Anyway, I felt that given the BB's earlier horror call with the KTs (for an almost directly proportional amount of chips, my AJ shove was 23k @ 800-1,600/200ante level, so 5.5 times the pot he called with KTs, for a quarter of his own stack, with both the blinds still to act behind him) there was a fair chance that if he called an open shove now, I could actually be in pretty decent shape.

Given my own stack size (I am not in death zone, still have just about enough to make an overly busy weak open raiser consider folding to a reraise in the next orbit or 2), I felt that it would be better to minimise risk of showdown, maximise FE, by open shoving.

For me, AT is quite close between raising to call shove and open shoving. If I have AK/AQ it's certainly the former because better chance of really having their range crushed and dominated. AJ probably still the former, AT and probably A9 the latter, while A8 I would almost certainly fold to a shove.

Anyway, I shoved fairly quickly when it got to me. BB thought for ages, literally a few minutes, then called and tabled AJ.

Flop K44. Turn 3. River 2. Adios me.

Thanks for doing the sums, Sikes. And thanks to all the others who put forward opinions too.

cardshark202

Hard luck KP, would have been the same result even if you just raised.

robinlacey

Hectorjelly wrote:

The problem with shoving is you risk 38.6K to win 6k. I think given the history of the last few hands that you are unlikely to be called by worse. We shoved for less chips with AJ and AK, so they are going to think our range is something like AJ or better. It may be slightly profitable but I doubt it, unless their calling ranges are moronic.

Also the huge problem with shoving is you make it hard for them to make a big mistake by repushing with an awful hand like k2 or something, I think if you want to get all in raising and calling a push is infinitely superiour to just pushing. I think pushing is very weak and a bad option in this spot. You are just making it very difficult to get called by a worse hand and making it easy for them to fold when you have them beat.

So if you think the blind are likely to get it in with a worse hand raise and call a shove. I'm not convinced of that and so slightly prefer raising and folding. I know it doesn't see, a great line, but we are actually in a horrible spot and all options are slightly unappealing. Its horrible because of the stack sizes, and the fact that although we are pretty sure we have the best hand, if all the money gets in we probably don't. If we had less chips I would definitely push.

Bops no offence but your advice is awful. Probably not as bad as open limping though lol.

i only skimmed this thread before replying so i missed this post the first time round and only noticed it when the last post referred to it,but i disagree with almost all of it.

first of all,i really disagree with the notion that open pushing "might be slightly profitable" - i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev,i mean there is nearly 1/6 of our stack in there!

the arguement hector is making here assumes that the only reason to push is in the hopes that we will be called by a worse hand-that is very much tangential to the fact that a push is profitable here most of the time based solely on the fact that we win a lot of chips proportional to our stack size here against any calling range.

secondly i think raising and folding is really horrible here,much much worse than open pushing,especially given the description of the blinds.

i don't see this as a horrible spot at all,if it was me i would raise and either take down the blinds or happily call a push knowing that the way tournaments play these days i am in good shape against the blinds pushing range.if he has a better hand so be it.

robinlacey

one thing that i think might be causing some confusion here however is that its hard to get across to people who don't play them much how agressive modern tournaments play (from what i've read on here this doesn't apply to irish tournaments,but it certainly applies to anyone who knew what they were doing at the world series this year,and was a noticable change from last year)

i was deep in the full tilt million the other day and a friend of mine was watching.he plays online mtts on smaller sites a lot (mainly mansion and ipoker) and he said he couldn't believe how agressive the play was,it had come up in conversation before but when he saw it in action he said he had never seen anything like it.

its amazing (and scary) how much the games have changed so quickly,and while not everyone in the world series played like this by any stretch of the imagination,given the comments kp made about the blinds i am sure that a call here is ++++ev. in fact it would take a read that the blinds were total nits for me to consider raise/folding here.if i had just been moved to the table the previous hand i would be happy to raise/call,although it would obviously be a little closer.

robinlacey

robinlacey wrote:

i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev

lol,as i said i only skimmed the thread the first time i read it,so i didn't realise when i typed that that someone who knew what they were talking about had already ran the numbers!

sorry sikes,that must have looked fairly rude!

sikes

haha, no bother!

RoundTower

I think I would just push. For everyone saying you might get him to make a bad reshove with 89s or QJs, you really should be happy enough for him to fold these hands, it is like a 1BB mistake for him to push them. The only hands you really want him to repush are the hands you dominate, Ax and Tx, and you might still get a call from smaller aces if you shove.

Basically do whatever is best for your metagame in these spots, it is probably simplest to shove J9s and KK here too as well as ATo, because the steal hands come along more often.

Hectorjelly

robinlacey wrote:

i only skimmed this thread before replying so i missed this post the first time round and only noticed it when the last post referred to it,but i disagree with almost all of it.

first of all,i really disagree with the notion that open pushing "might be slightly profitable" - i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev,i mean there is nearly 1/6 of our stack in there!

the arguement hector is making here assumes that the only reason to push is in the hopes that we will be called by a worse hand-that is very much tangential to the fact that a push is profitable here most of the time based solely on the fact that we win a lot of chips proportional to our stack size here against any calling range.

secondly i think raising and folding is really horrible here,much much worse than open pushing,especially given the description of the blinds.

i don't see this as a horrible spot at all,if it was me i would raise and either take down the blinds or happily call a push knowing that the way tournaments play these days i am in good shape against the blinds pushing range.if he has a better hand so be it.

If the blinds are going to be as aggressive as you say then raising and calling all in is still much better than open pushing. If they are going to put you all in with almost any hand then just raise and call all in. Open raising has to be much more profitable because you vastly increase the chance of getting all your chips in the middle against a worse hand. What actually happened illustrated that exactly, the guy thought for a long time before calling with AJ. So you can assume he is always folding A2 and the like to a push, but if you raise and then call all in he can have any ace. Open pushing makes it much easier for your opponent to play well, especially with a hand like AT which is just in the middle. Thats why i said it was an awful spot, if the guy is playing normally he will tend to fold worse and call with better. I fail to see how you cant see its a horrible position, unless you enjoy going all in and getting knocked out by a better hand.

As Sikes worked out, our EV of open pushing is +4k. I dont really consider that vastly profitable. Allthough I would rather open push than open fold.

As I said in my original post, if I had any reason to think the blinds were push happy I would call. In my experience in Irish tournaments it would probably be a bad call. If you are right and these guys are that aggro then its an easy call, but I already made that clear

RoundTower

Hectorjelly wrote:

What actually happened illustrated that exactly, the guy thought for a long time before calling with AJ.

I don't think thinking for a long time means anything. No one seems to be able to make a quick decision in the WSOP, he would probably Hollywood call with KJ or A2 or QQ too.

robinlacey

Hectorjelly wrote:

I fail to see how you cant see its a horrible position, unless you enjoy going all in and getting knocked out by a better hand.

?
i don't know what you mean,as i said i don't think its a horrible spot because i would raise and either win the blinds and antes,thus increasing my stack nicely,or get reraised,in which case i would call expecting to be ahead of his range.

roundtower,i'd like to hear more about why you don't want to bet and induce a push from a wide range of hands,you say you want him to fold QJ and 98s which i don't understand at all here,its only day two,i would happily take a coinflip to have a chance to double my stack,let alone getting it all in as a favourite,i'm curious as to why you wouldn't?

RoundTower

I wouldn't be particularly happy to coinflip for all my stack at that stage, if someone offered me to literally flip coins for it I don't know if I'd accept. I'd obviously be happy to take AT vs QJ or 98 for all my stack in this situation (it's worth 8000 or so in chips I think), but I'd be almost as happy to pick up 6300 in chips.

robinlacey

really?

i know this is an age old debate,but i would feel,both intuitively and based on what i've read,that doubling my stack here would more than double my equity in the tournament,it would open up a whole lot of options,since as it stands you are very limited in what you can do.

mrflash

i say shove, a raise is not a great option in this instance, you have two loose agressive players behind you, and if sb makes the call, bb is also likely to make the call, which leaves you three way and thats not a position you want to be in with a10, i mean these guys could be on any two cards based on the amount of hands they are playing. so even if you hit the ace on the flop, you are not safe. i would shove and hope for one caller which more often than not will be a weaker hand. and if you dont get the caller you got your 10% increase.

robinlacey

mrflash wrote:

i say shove, a raise is not a great option in this instance, you have two loose agressive players behind you.

this is a reason to raise and not shove in my opinion.

as for the worry about both of them calling,loose agressive players are hardly ever flat calling here,particularly the small blind.

mrflash

well my point is that you dont want three way action with this hand and i reckon that shoving is the best play in this instance. the worst case scenario is if the pot does get three way, thats why i say shove, i know you say its unlikely but why take a chance on three way action, i wouldnt, really all you want is the blinds with this hand. but if you get a caller and he's ahead, well then tough luck, but from what you said about these guys you are likely to get a caller who is behind or even dominated, and you cant really afford to let it go if you are raised. not against these guys. so i'd shove and hope that if i get a caller he has k10, a8 or something. but why give the chance for both to enter. while it is unlikely you cannot afford to have both in.

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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Sirtoyou

Every one is presuming a raise will induce a reraise or fold from the blinds but also youve now given them the option of a call.
This is way more -ev than open shoving because they have the first option to bet the flop.
Also sikes numbers are so strong here i strongly believe that when its folded to you on the button with an M of 6 you should only pretend to look at your cards and shove

cardshark202

Aggro players are never calling with any hands here, so you never have to worry about them calling