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WSOP exit hand

24

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 837 ✭✭✭kpnuts


    My view at the time was, and still is, that if I raise in this spot then I have to call reraise because both the blinds would have been only too happy to stick me in with KJs, 89s. Given that likelihood, I cannot pass after putting a quarter of my stack in the middle. If I did, I'd have death-zone M of just 4.5 (and down to 3.5 in 2 hands' time after I pay my blinds... no walks for shorties at WSOP ME!)

    Anyway, I felt that given the BB's earlier horror call with the KTs (for an almost directly proportional amount of chips, my AJ shove was 23k @ 800-1,600/200ante level, so 5.5 times the pot he called with KTs, for a quarter of his own stack, with both the blinds still to act behind him) there was a fair chance that if he called an open shove now, I could actually be in pretty decent shape.

    Given my own stack size (I am not in death zone, still have just about enough to make an overly busy weak open raiser consider folding to a reraise in the next orbit or 2), I felt that it would be better to minimise risk of showdown, maximise FE, by open shoving.

    For me, AT is quite close between raising to call shove and open shoving. If I have AK/AQ it's certainly the former because better chance of really having their range crushed and dominated. AJ probably still the former, AT and probably A9 the latter, while A8 I would almost certainly fold to a shove.

    Anyway, I shoved fairly quickly when it got to me. BB thought for ages, literally a few minutes, then called and tabled AJ.

    Flop K44. Turn 3. River 2. Adios me.

    Thanks for doing the sums, Sikes. And thanks to all the others who put forward opinions too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    Hard luck KP, would have been the same result even if you just raised.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    The problem with shoving is you risk 38.6K to win 6k. I think given the history of the last few hands that you are unlikely to be called by worse. We shoved for less chips with AJ and AK, so they are going to think our range is something like AJ or better. It may be slightly profitable but I doubt it, unless their calling ranges are moronic.

    Also the huge problem with shoving is you make it hard for them to make a big mistake by repushing with an awful hand like k2 or something, I think if you want to get all in raising and calling a push is infinitely superiour to just pushing. I think pushing is very weak and a bad option in this spot. You are just making it very difficult to get called by a worse hand and making it easy for them to fold when you have them beat.

    So if you think the blind are likely to get it in with a worse hand raise and call a shove. I'm not convinced of that and so slightly prefer raising and folding. I know it doesn't see, a great line, but we are actually in a horrible spot and all options are slightly unappealing. Its horrible because of the stack sizes, and the fact that although we are pretty sure we have the best hand, if all the money gets in we probably don't. If we had less chips I would definitely push.

    Bops no offence but your advice is awful. Probably not as bad as open limping though lol.

    i only skimmed this thread before replying so i missed this post the first time round and only noticed it when the last post referred to it,but i disagree with almost all of it.

    first of all,i really disagree with the notion that open pushing "might be slightly profitable" - i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev,i mean there is nearly 1/6 of our stack in there!

    the arguement hector is making here assumes that the only reason to push is in the hopes that we will be called by a worse hand-that is very much tangential to the fact that a push is profitable here most of the time based solely on the fact that we win a lot of chips proportional to our stack size here against any calling range.

    secondly i think raising and folding is really horrible here,much much worse than open pushing,especially given the description of the blinds.

    i don't see this as a horrible spot at all,if it was me i would raise and either take down the blinds or happily call a push knowing that the way tournaments play these days i am in good shape against the blinds pushing range.if he has a better hand so be it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    one thing that i think might be causing some confusion here however is that its hard to get across to people who don't play them much how agressive modern tournaments play (from what i've read on here this doesn't apply to irish tournaments,but it certainly applies to anyone who knew what they were doing at the world series this year,and was a noticable change from last year)

    i was deep in the full tilt million the other day and a friend of mine was watching.he plays online mtts on smaller sites a lot (mainly mansion and ipoker) and he said he couldn't believe how agressive the play was,it had come up in conversation before but when he saw it in action he said he had never seen anything like it.

    its amazing (and scary) how much the games have changed so quickly,and while not everyone in the world series played like this by any stretch of the imagination,given the comments kp made about the blinds i am sure that a call here is ++++ev. in fact it would take a read that the blinds were total nits for me to consider raise/folding here.if i had just been moved to the table the previous hand i would be happy to raise/call,although it would obviously be a little closer.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    robinlacey wrote:
    i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev

    lol,as i said i only skimmed the thread the first time i read it,so i didn't realise when i typed that that someone who knew what they were talking about had already ran the numbers!

    sorry sikes,that must have looked fairly rude!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭sikes


    haha, no bother!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭RoundTower


    I think I would just push. For everyone saying you might get him to make a bad reshove with 89s or QJs, you really should be happy enough for him to fold these hands, it is like a 1BB mistake for him to push them. The only hands you really want him to repush are the hands you dominate, Ax and Tx, and you might still get a call from smaller aces if you shove.

    Basically do whatever is best for your metagame in these spots, it is probably simplest to shove J9s and KK here too as well as ATo, because the steal hands come along more often.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    robinlacey wrote:
    i only skimmed this thread before replying so i missed this post the first time round and only noticed it when the last post referred to it,but i disagree with almost all of it.

    first of all,i really disagree with the notion that open pushing "might be slightly profitable" - i wouldn't even know how to run the numbers but i am certain that if someone who knew what they are talking about did it would definitely be +ev,i mean there is nearly 1/6 of our stack in there!

    the arguement hector is making here assumes that the only reason to push is in the hopes that we will be called by a worse hand-that is very much tangential to the fact that a push is profitable here most of the time based solely on the fact that we win a lot of chips proportional to our stack size here against any calling range.

    secondly i think raising and folding is really horrible here,much much worse than open pushing,especially given the description of the blinds.

    i don't see this as a horrible spot at all,if it was me i would raise and either take down the blinds or happily call a push knowing that the way tournaments play these days i am in good shape against the blinds pushing range.if he has a better hand so be it.


    If the blinds are going to be as aggressive as you say then raising and calling all in is still much better than open pushing. If they are going to put you all in with almost any hand then just raise and call all in. Open raising has to be much more profitable because you vastly increase the chance of getting all your chips in the middle against a worse hand. What actually happened illustrated that exactly, the guy thought for a long time before calling with AJ. So you can assume he is always folding A2 and the like to a push, but if you raise and then call all in he can have any ace. Open pushing makes it much easier for your opponent to play well, especially with a hand like AT which is just in the middle. Thats why i said it was an awful spot, if the guy is playing normally he will tend to fold worse and call with better. I fail to see how you cant see its a horrible position, unless you enjoy going all in and getting knocked out by a better hand.

    As Sikes worked out, our EV of open pushing is +4k. I dont really consider that vastly profitable. Allthough I would rather open push than open fold.

    As I said in my original post, if I had any reason to think the blinds were push happy I would call. In my experience in Irish tournaments it would probably be a bad call. If you are right and these guys are that aggro then its an easy call, but I already made that clear


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭RoundTower


    What actually happened illustrated that exactly, the guy thought for a long time before calling with AJ.
    I don't think thinking for a long time means anything. No one seems to be able to make a quick decision in the WSOP, he would probably Hollywood call with KJ or A2 or QQ too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    I fail to see how you cant see its a horrible position, unless you enjoy going all in and getting knocked out by a better hand.

    ?
    i don't know what you mean,as i said i don't think its a horrible spot because i would raise and either win the blinds and antes,thus increasing my stack nicely,or get reraised,in which case i would call expecting to be ahead of his range.

    roundtower,i'd like to hear more about why you don't want to bet and induce a push from a wide range of hands,you say you want him to fold QJ and 98s which i don't understand at all here,its only day two,i would happily take a coinflip to have a chance to double my stack,let alone getting it all in as a favourite,i'm curious as to why you wouldn't?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭RoundTower


    I wouldn't be particularly happy to coinflip for all my stack at that stage, if someone offered me to literally flip coins for it I don't know if I'd accept. I'd obviously be happy to take AT vs QJ or 98 for all my stack in this situation (it's worth 8000 or so in chips I think), but I'd be almost as happy to pick up 6300 in chips.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    really?

    i know this is an age old debate,but i would feel,both intuitively and based on what i've read,that doubling my stack here would more than double my equity in the tournament,it would open up a whole lot of options,since as it stands you are very limited in what you can do.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 388 ✭✭mrflash


    i say shove, a raise is not a great option in this instance, you have two loose agressive players behind you, and if sb makes the call, bb is also likely to make the call, which leaves you three way and thats not a position you want to be in with a10, i mean these guys could be on any two cards based on the amount of hands they are playing. so even if you hit the ace on the flop, you are not safe. i would shove and hope for one caller which more often than not will be a weaker hand. and if you dont get the caller you got your 10% increase.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    mrflash wrote:
    i say shove, a raise is not a great option in this instance, you have two loose agressive players behind you.

    this is a reason to raise and not shove in my opinion.

    as for the worry about both of them calling,loose agressive players are hardly ever flat calling here,particularly the small blind.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 388 ✭✭mrflash


    well my point is that you dont want three way action with this hand and i reckon that shoving is the best play in this instance. the worst case scenario is if the pot does get three way, thats why i say shove, i know you say its unlikely but why take a chance on three way action, i wouldnt, really all you want is the blinds with this hand. but if you get a caller and he's ahead, well then tough luck, but from what you said about these guys you are likely to get a caller who is behind or even dominated, and you cant really afford to let it go if you are raised. not against these guys. so i'd shove and hope that if i get a caller he has k10, a8 or something. but why give the chance for both to enter. while it is unlikely you cannot afford to have both in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,643 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,643 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,643 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Sirtoyou


    Every one is presuming a raise will induce a reraise or fold from the blinds but also youve now given them the option of a call.
    This is way more -ev than open shoving because they have the first option to bet the flop.
    Also sikes numbers are so strong here i strongly believe that when its folded to you on the button with an M of 6 you should only pretend to look at your cards and shove


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    Aggro players are never calling with any hands here, so you never have to worry about them calling


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭robinlacey


    LuckyLloyd wrote:

    There is a difference between 6x the pot when there are no antes and 6x the pot at this level. It makes the call different harder as it is a greater percentage of the total chips in play. We are NOT getting called by QJ here.

    i don't follow this part at all,what do you mean lloyd?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    The maths of raising and calling a shove shouldn't be difficult to work out for comparison purposes, if you assume that only one of blinds will get involved, and they have similar ranges for the push. So you'd be ignoring the case where both get involved (rare), and ignoring cases where one/both of them just call (also rare).

    What ranges would people put the blinds on here to shove?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭sikes


    The maths of raising and calling a shove shouldn't be difficult to work out for comparison purposes, if you assume that only one of blinds will get involved, and they have similar ranges for the push. So you'd be ignoring the case where both get involved (rare), and ignoring cases where one/both of them just call (also rare).

    What ranges would people put the blinds on here to shove?

    Well I think the real question is what is our range for raising, as seen by him.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    sikes wrote:
    Well I think the real question is what is our range for raising, as seen by him.

    Yeah, good point.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 121 ✭✭pumpkinpints


    LuckyLloyd wrote:
    Finally, KP has not been pushing with sufficient frequency and has shown down hands of enough strength so that the other players will not think he is pushing ATC. A wide range. But not any two.
    With 16% of our stack out there i think its certainly +ev to push ATC here. If we are only called by top 10% of hands then its a shove.
    it also means when we shove a better hand that we should be called more likely by a worse hand.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    Edit: Assumptions are only one blind gets involved, if any, and ties are ignored for simplicity.

    Rewriting sikes equity calculation for a push gives:
    EV_push = (PROB_blinds_fold x 6.3K) + (1 - PROB_blinds_fold) * [(Equity_when_called x 44.9K) + ((1 - Equity_when_called) x (-38.6K))]


    First of all, here's sikes EV calculation for a push put in another way:

    EV_push = 0.864*(6.3K) + 0.136*[(0.295 x 44.9) + (.705 x (-38.6K))] = +3.55K


    As far as I can see, if we raise with the intention of calling a push from the blinds, then the EV calculation is exactly the same as for the calculation when we push (does anyone think otherwise?), so running some numbers for different ranges gives:

    Range 1 (wide):
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 55.379% 51.80% 03.58% 276731808 19125106.00 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 44.621% 41.04% 03.58% 219256828 19125106.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    This is 28.8% of hands (so we face a shove 57.6% of the time), giving EV = +7.07K

    Range 2:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 37.997% 32.90% 05.10% 63090036 9780526.50 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 62.003% 56.90% 05.10% 109126959 9780526.50 { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo } 10.4%
    This is 10.4% of hands (so we face a shove 20.8% of the time), giving EV = +3.56K

    Range 3:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 31.081% 29.85% 01.24% 35262253 1459891.50 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 68.919% 67.68% 01.24% 79966940 1459891.50 { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ } 6.3%
    This is 6.3% of hands (so we face a shove 12.6% of the time), giving EV = +3.91K

    Range 4:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 26.222% 25.08% 01.14% 16749255 762039.00 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 73.778% 72.64% 01.14% 48506523 762039.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo } 3.8%
    This is 3.8% of hands (so we face a shove 7.6% of the time), giving EV = +4.55K


    The bottom line is (I think), if we want to get the money in anyway with this hand, then choose the method (push or raise) that will get you in against the loosest possible range. And surely just raising has to be better than a simple push if that's the case, as people tend to re-push with lighter ranges than what they will call with.

    If anyone spots any obvious errors there, please point them out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭ocallagh


    horrible spot Ken, ul for the LAG to have AJ. I'd shove too in your spot.

    I'm going to apply some perspective/logic to this thread.

    When HJ, RT and Robin cannot agree on the right course of action then the difference is so marginal it doesn't matter!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭ocallagh


    Edit: Assumptions are only one blind gets involved, if any, and ties are ignored for simplicity.

    Rewriting sikes equity calculation for a push gives:
    EV_push = (PROB_blinds_fold x 6.3K) + (1 - PROB_blinds_fold) * [(Equity_when_called x 44.9K) + ((1 - Equity_when_called) x (-38.6K))]


    First of all, here's sikes EV calculation for a push put in another way:

    EV_push = 0.864*(6.3K) + 0.136*[(0.295 x 44.9) + (.705 x (-38.6K))] = +3.55K


    As far as I can see, if we raise with the intention of calling a push from the blinds, then the EV calculation is exactly the same as for the calculation when we push (does anyone think otherwise?), so running some numbers for different ranges gives:

    Range 1 (wide):
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 55.379% 51.80% 03.58% 276731808 19125106.00 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 44.621% 41.04% 03.58% 219256828 19125106.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    This is 28.8% of hands (so we face a shove 57.6% of the time), giving EV = +7.07K

    Range 2:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 37.997% 32.90% 05.10% 63090036 9780526.50 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 62.003% 56.90% 05.10% 109126959 9780526.50 { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo } 10.4%
    This is 10.4% of hands (so we face a shove 20.8% of the time), giving EV = +3.56K

    Range 3:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 31.081% 29.85% 01.24% 35262253 1459891.50 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 68.919% 67.68% 01.24% 79966940 1459891.50 { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ } 6.3%
    This is 6.3% of hands (so we face a shove 12.6% of the time), giving EV = +3.91K

    Range 4:
    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 26.222% 25.08% 01.14% 16749255 762039.00 { AcTs }
    Hand 1: 73.778% 72.64% 01.14% 48506523 762039.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo } 3.8%
    This is 3.8% of hands (so we face a shove 7.6% of the time), giving EV = +4.55K


    The bottom line is (I think), if we want to get the money in anyway with this hand, then choose the method (push or raise) that will get you in against the loosest possible range. And surely just raising has to be better than a simple push if that's the case, as people tend to re-push with lighter ranges than what they will call with.

    If anyone spots any obvious errors there, please point them out.

    Your tournament life has a value though. By just shoving I think we keep our tournament life intact more often.

    edit: I am aware TLS was mentioned in my post.... I am prepared for anything you cash donkeys can throw at me!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,643 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    This post has been deleted.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,643 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


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