Will Ahern become Taoiseach on June 14th?

Dave!

I wonder if before polling day the PDs had pulled out of government and went mental on Bertie, would people have had more respect for them and would they have gotten more than 2 seats? That was what I was thinking about today.

If anything comes out of Mahon that is REALLY damaging to the Taoiseach, then Enda could easily get the PDs to join the government with Greens, Labour, and independents, if he just makes a deal whereby Harney goes berzerk and condemns Bertie, thus resurrecting the idea that they're there to keep the government in check.

What would be interesting I think is if Bertie gets broken by Mahon, then Enda forms a government held together with blue-tack. FF revealed as crooks again, but the alternative (given the current seats) being ridiculously unstable. So Enda would probably be compelled to call another election, and the face of Irish politics could be quite drastically changed.

seamus

I guess it's no secret now anyway why Bertie went all cloak-and-dagger about calling the election, and then decided to go for last Thursday.

If he had called it a week later, the results may have been very different!

Lennoxschips

if bertie is found to have lied or is found guilty in any way then i think the people of ireland deserve another election.

Crash

DaveMcG wrote:

I wonder if before polling day the PDs had pulled out of government and went mental on Bertie, would people have had more respect for them and would they have gotten more than 2 seats? That was what I was thinking about today.

Personally I think so. they made a choice - pulling out of government would have probably ensured them more seats, but left them in opposition - I think they figured they wouldnt lose any seats, and would still be in power with FF after the elections as the main partner.

Lennoxschips

Lennoxschips wrote:

if bertie is found to have lied or is found guilty in any way then i think the people of ireland deserve another election.

Yeah. I wonder if there are bets going for another election before the end of the year?

Stark

DaveMcG wrote:

If anything comes out of Mahon that is REALLY damaging to the Taoiseach, then Enda could easily get the PDs to join the government with Greens, Labour, and independents, if he just makes a deal whereby Harney goes berzerk and condemns Bertie, thus resurrecting the idea that they're there to keep the government in check.

Harney did make a plee to be kept on as Health Minister if the alternative government got in, so I'd say she'd be willing if they asked her. I don't think Kenny has any plans to court the PDs though.

30txsbzmcu2k9w

Them shower of ****wits in RTE have decided to edit the story slightly, typical - RTE is riddled with FF bias, editors always trying to spare berties blushes

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0528/mahon.html

seamus

Stark wrote:

Harney did make a plee to be kept on as Health Minister if the alternative government got in, so I'd say she'd be willing if they asked her. I don't think Kenny has any plans to court the PDs though.

You never know without McDowell. Kenny's comments on McDowell's leaving indicated to me that they weren't very pally. That is, Kenny didn't out and out say "Good Riddance", but was more along the lines of, "Everyone else will miss his controversial character"

cast_iron

&#231 wrote: »

He is. and there may be other explanations. However, its being shown now that the explanations that Bertie Ahern gave previously were NOT TRUE.

Therefore, that is a lie.

Not necessarily. He may have been mistaken. A lie would imply it was deliberate - only the fullness of time will make that any clearer, ie. him getting a chance to explain himself to the Tribunal.

Akrasia

Smarmore wrote:

He said there were discrepancies and a lot of it is to do with exchange rates. He also said there is not much documentary evidence on the 5 lodgements so maybe you should wait until Bertie gives his account before brandishing him a liar. Unless I'm mistaken the Mahon tribunal is an ongoing investigation and these kind of snippets should not really be leaked to the press.

This wasn't a leak, it was evidence heard in open court this morning, and in response to these allegations, Bertie's lawyers went off on a rant about how the tribunal was anti Bertie and irresponsible in allowing leaks in the past (as usual, attacking the man not the ball. It's the strategy of people with a lot to hide)

Crash

Cast_Iron wrote:

Not necessarily. He may have been mistaken. A lie would imply it was deliberate - only the fullness of time will make that any clearer, ie. him getting a chance to explain himself to the Tribunal.

Thats a fair enough viewpoint - essentially though my patience with that man and my trust has been shot at this point really.

Heinrich

&#231 wrote: »

Thats a fair enough viewpoint - essentially though my patience with that man and my trust has been shot at this point really.

A lot of dosh to be mistaken about if you ask me!

Why should the integrity of a future Taoiseach be in question?

Akrasia

cast_iron wrote:

Not necessarily. He may have been mistaken. A lie would imply it was deliberate - only the fullness of time will make that any clearer, ie. him getting a chance to explain himself to the Tribunal.

He already had a chance to explain himself to the Irish public, even after the exchange discrepancies were brought to light, and he made 'a full explanation' subsequent to that, which was contradicted by the bank records and therefore a lie.

Crash

In fact, if you're going before a tribunal you ensure you have your facts straight on what you'll be questioned on. 1 discrepancy, maybe. multiple ones - thats a very different issue.

Villain

Lads Bertie is in hot water here have a read of http://www.planningtribunal.ie/images/SITECONTENT_578.pdf pages 30 to 35 make very interesting reading. It appears to me that Bertie told a lie when he said he did not deal in large transactions of US dollars, now obviously this is only an opening statment and his legal team will fight the charges put to him but if the tribunal's records of transactions at the banks concerned on the dates agreed with Bertie stack up he is in big trouble here. Biffo's odd's for next Taoiseach on Betfair are shortening.....

Have a read and let me know what you think.

endplate

My theory is that a FF spin doctor leaked the information about Bertie's finances before the election in order to divert attention away from the other parties. They realised that sympathy for the Taoiseach increased after the first leak last October and hey presto the same happened this time. I'm gonna wait and see if anybody is found responsible for the leak and if nobody is accused then it looks like a cover up IMO;)

cast_iron

Akrasia wrote:

He already had a chance to explain himself to the Irish public, even after the exchange discrepancies were brought to light, and he made 'a full explanation' subsequent to that, which was contradicted by the bank records and therefore a lie.

"Full" in the context of what he was accused of at the time. Not on the apparent "discrepancies" been talked about now. He has answered the selective leaks each time.

&#231 wrote: »

In fact, if you're going before a tribunal you ensure you have your facts straight on what you'll be questioned on. 1 discrepancy, maybe. multiple ones - thats a very different issue.

Indeed, but he hasn't been before the Tribunal yet to answer the accusations. He should be at least afforded this before we brand him a liar. Maybe he will have a credible reason, maybe he won't - I don't own a crystal ball.

gandalf

That looks fairly damning alright Irish1. The response from Berties legal team all bluster and no substance at all.

Crash

Very interesting read alright.

Agent Smith

Where wants to take my bet that there will be another election in the next 12 months?

Lennoxschips

a very interesting read irish1

mike65

irish1 wrote:

Lads Bertie is in hot water here have a read of http://www.planningtribunal.ie/images/SITECONTENT_578.pdf pages 30 to 35 make very interesting reading. It appears to me that Bertie told a lie when he said he did not deal in large transactions of US dollars, now obviously this is only an opening statment and his legal team will fight

Y'know when you read it in black and white all at once, you gotta say Ahern is either as bumbling as he'd like us to belive or he really is the most skilful, the most devious, the most cunning of them all. A 'decent skin' can get away with almost anything it seems.

Mike.

The discrediting of the Mahon Tribunal has begun. This might mean that something really juicy is about to come out.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2007/0528/breaking2.htm

Tribunal a 'platform for preposterous allegations'

Elaine Edwards

The Mahon tribunal has been accused of allowing itself to become a platform for the airing of "preposterous allegations" against Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

A lawyer for Mr Ahern today told the tribunal that allegations being made against him by developer Tom Gilmartin were "part of a pattern of malicious and false allegations" made over the past seven years.

The tribunal opened its second so-called Quarryvale module this morning with an opening statement read by tribunal lawyer Des O'Neill outlining various aspects of monies lodged by or on behalf of Mr Ahern in the early 1990s.
All of these inquiries arise by reason of outlandish allegations by a man whose credibility is already in shreds
Conor Maguire SC for Bertie Ahern

Conor Maguire SC said the examination of Mr Ahern's financial affairs "seems now to have become an end in itself".

Mr Maguire said Mr Ahern had "always denied unequivocally" allegations that he had been paid separate sums of £30,000 and £50,000 by the developer Owen O'Callaghan.

"Firstly, Mr Ahern has stated and will repeat before this tribunal, that he never at any time received money from Mr Owen O'Callaghan or from anybody on Mr O'Callaghan's behalf," Mr Maguire said.

The tribunal heard Mr Ahern "never at any stage intervened in relation to any tax designation to assist Mr O'Callaghan".

Mr Maguire said Mr Ahern had made discovery of everything requested by the tribunal and that there had been "a huge level of intrusion by the tribunal's inquiries into his personal and family affairs".

Referring to developer Tom Gilmartin, who is expected to give evidence to the tribunal tomorrow, Mr Ryan added: "The unpleasantness of having to open all of one's private financial, family and domestic affairs to public scrutiny can surely be understood by everybody.

"What makes the experience that Mr Ahern and those close to him have had to endure all the more unpalatable is the knowledge that all of these inquiries arise by reason of outlandish allegations by a man whose credibility is already in shreds."

Mr Maguire said Mr Gilmartin had "become a puppet for others", a description which raised objections from Mr Gilmartin's own legal team.

Earlier, the tribunal said it will query an apparent discrepancy in a lodgement made to an account on behalf of Mr Ahern in December 1994.

Mr Ahern has stated the sum of money was £30,000 sterling but bank records show no such sterling exchange was made on the day in question.

The tribunal heard that £28,772 Irish punts lodged to an account by the Taoiseach's then partner Celia Larkin was exactly the equivalent of $45,000 dollars at the foreign exchange rates that operated that day.

Bank records received by the tribunal showed that the total amount of sterling notes exchanged at the branch for Irish punts that day was £1,921.55. Mr Ahern has said he was not involved in any significant dollar transactions.

Mr Ahern has said the £30,000 was money given to him by businessman Micheál Wall for the refurbishment of a house in Drumcondra which Mr Ahern was renting from him.

Des O'Neill SC, for the tribunal, said that no one should draw any conclusions from the figures and that there might be other explanations for them.

The second Quarryvale module, which opened today, had been deferred after Mr Ahern called the general election at the start of the month.

Among four sums of money under investigation is one lodged to an account belonging to Celia Larkin in December 1994.

A sum of €28,772 did not equate to the £30,000 sterling the Taoiseach said it represented based on exchange rates in operation at AIB bank in O'Connell Street, Dublin, on the day it was lodged. It did, however, equate exactly to $45,000, Mr O'Neill said.

However, Mr Ahern's lawyers today said the tribunal had never put this matter to bank officials during their private examination.

The tribunal website lists 125 witnesses it intends calling during the module, which is likely to last into next year. The tribunal is inquiring into planning matters related to the construction of Liffey Valley shopping centre, Dublin, in the 1990s.

The development was led by the Cork businessman Owen O'Callaghan. Another businessman involved, Tom Gilmartin, has alleged that Mr Ahern received payments from Mr O'Callaghan. Both Mr Ahern and Mr O'Callaghan have strongly rejected the allegation.

Mr Gilmartin is scheduled to begin his evidence tomorrow and he was present at today's hearing in Dublin Castle. When Mr Ahern will be called is not clear.

mike65

Conor Maguire SC said the examination of Mr Ahern's financial affairs "seems now to have become an end in itself".

"If ye seek, ye may find".

Mike.

chump

Jaysus I read some of that pdf link. Excellent read. Thanks for posting it

Villain

I just finished reading it, my god Bertie had some weird transactions going on and Wall's transactions look very odd, plus he made a loss of £28,000 on the house sale to Bertie.

The evidence over the coming weeks is going to be interesting, does anyone know if Vincent Browne's show is going to be acting out parts of the evidence as they have done with other tribunals?

It will be interesting to see how the media run with this, will they go after the story in reply to Bertie's criticism of the media or will they stay clear of it? No matter what happens it can't be good for a state to have its leader under investigation by a tribunal investigating alleged corruption by members of public office.

Lennoxschips

The most damning bit was how the lodged amount in Irish pounds corresponded, to the penny, to what you'd get for lodging exactly US$45,000.00 that day at AIB. And AIB had no record of 30,000 worth of sterling being deposited in the bank that week. Yet Ahern claims he didn't exchange any dollars and that it was sterling. If he's provided incorrect information to a government tribunal then he's in serious trouble.

And yeah, Wall made a massive loss on the house too. What was that all about? Plus leaving it in the will... What exactly are Michael Wall's business interests in Ireland?

Villain

Wall was due to start a Coach business in Ireland but was in a RTA in 1995 and decided no to after that, I also found it a bit odd how Wall withdrew the money remaining from the house sale in Cash and has no records of spending it, £50,000 pounds!!

Dave!

I find that one of the most fishy aspects of this: is it normal for businessmen (and not to mention politicians) to conduct their monetary transactions in cash, to the tune of £50,000?! That says one thing to me: they don't want a trail.

Lennoxschips

Yep, and this was the nation's Minister of Finance, the man who collected people's hard earned dosh and should be a prime example of proper financial practice.