Ahern v Kenny tonight

Senator

After last night's flyweight contest, the 2 heavyweights take to the ring tonight on RTE1 at 9.30 (Primetime).

What has Enda Kenny got to do to land a knockout punch on Bertie Ahern ? Do you think the debate will really sway any floating voters or is it simply more likely to confirm committed FF and FG folks in their preferences ?

AidoCQS

My guess is it will be an anticlimax, they will have more time to waffel and both have too much to loose to take any risks

The_Minister

I think RTE are right when they say that Enda has to prove himself, right here and now. If he fails at this then he is screwed. If he wins, then he has a good chance.
It will be interesting to see if Enda brings up Cowen's smoking habits.

AidoCQS

I think they have to limit cheap shots - did McDowell's cheapshot work last night (The northern Bank), would he come off looking childish?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Senator

Where can Kenny really hurt Ahern ? Where can he get him on the ropes - the economy, the health service, crime or what ?

Jonny Arson

AidoCQS wrote:

My guess is it will be an anticlimax, they will have more time to waffel and both have too much to loose to take any risks

Kenny has more to lose in this one. Kenny just needs to tie this and not say anything that will cause controversy. Ahern and FF are losing this election and they need some sort of knockout blow to make headlines tomorrow and grab some votes back their way. The debate may more interesting than people think it may be.

lunapark

Jonny Arson wrote:

Kenny has more to lose in this one. Kenny just needs to tie this and not say anything that will cause controversy. Ahern and FF need some sort of knockout blow to make headlines tomorrow and grab some votes back their way. The debate may more interesting than people think it may be.

Sorry folks, Enda has absolutly nothing to lose here- he will just pass the time taking shots at bertie. Bertie haas everything to lose- hello?

The Rooster

Agree with jonny, disagree with luna.

Kenny is the one who has everything to lose, as he's in pole position at the moment. The job of taoiseach is his to blow. A draw tonight will be a good result for Kenny. Ahern needs to come out fighting, and needs to win.

In the previous two debates it was Ahern who was in pole position and he settled for the draw, and the problem was the two Fine Gael leaders werent good enough or maybe ambitious enough to really have a go, so a boring draw was the inevitable conclusion.

This should be the best one yet, not that I'd rule out another snoozefest!

is_that_so

A scoreless draw and probably a dull one at that, although I did see a clip of Bertie V Noonan(boxing again ) and he fairly tore into him. As posted Kenny just needs to get through it without making any serious gaffes. Bertie will have to come out of his corner fast and could get caught on the counter.

PH01

The 'debate' result isn't going to matter tonight to those undecided voters as they won't be watching it. The only people to watch it will be politic-nutters like us. Everyone else will be watching something different or getting on with their lives.

But it'll be interesting to see what milage the media makes out of this debate tonight. How many newspaper headlines will it make? Will what is said tonight reverberate in the media to next week?

If the debate tonight becomes a 'story' it may very well have a profound effect on the result of this election.

Saying that I agree with the previous poster who said that it's Enda's to lose - this debate and election. So given the stakes, he's gonna play it safe and not upset the 'apple-tart'.

BTW, if you're watching the debate and it get's boring you can always play the Leaders Debate Drinking Game.

Jackz

Think Bertie might just go all out tonight?

Jackz

PH01 your right it won't be watched but if somebody wanted to make an impact that would be repeated in every newspaper and on every radio station tomorrow it would be a good time to do it.

Senator

My own 2 cents worth is that Enda just has to appear cool, trustworthy and capable. He doesn't need to do anything too dramatic or over-react to Bertie's jibes (and I'm sure there will be some). He needs to keep his head and keep jabbing away on a select few topics which the government are admittedly weak on. No harm in throwing in a few right hooks to the effect that it's a pity FF haven't got control of Health and Justice when things are obviously out of control in both departments. Then smile and back off.

If Bertie can be rattled and forced into one of his self-serving cornerboy rants, the election's in the bag for FG and Labour.

28064212

Jackz wrote:

Think Bertie might just go all out tonight?

Bertie doesn't have anything to go all out with. There are very, very few policy areas which Bertie will be able to go to without Kenny having the upper hand. I see Bertie trying to hold as much of the topic on the Northern Ireland peace process as possible, and to try and claim credit for the last 15 years of economic boom. And unless Bertie reveals Enda's secret affair with a nun who he then forced to have an abortion, Bertie will lose in any questions over personal character

Barring an absolute trouncing by one side that is reported in all the media tomorrow, Kenny is the only person who really stands to pick up any undecideds. Bertie is a known quantity, everybody has seen everything he has said over the past decade, and their minds are made up. There are a significant number of people out there who know very little about Kenny, and an anyway decent performance will allow him to pick up a percentage point or two

nesf

Senator wrote:

My own 2 cents worth is that Enda just has to appear cool, trustworthy and capable.

Agreed, he also needs to show some charisma and play the statesman role well. The problem for him might be that he hasn't really done any off-the-cuff debating against heavyweights so far (Bruton has been doing it) and I think he does have to convince people that he'll be capable and able to do the job. If he only plays to the core FG vote I think he could be in a bit of trouble. He needs to consolidate and strengthen FG's position with swing voters tonight. Bertie on the other hand is well capable of bumbling through this and relating to the "guys on barstools" and I don't think as much is riding on it for him. A loss for him wouldn't be as bad a thing as it would for Enda I think. There are more unanswered questions about Enda's leadership qualities than Bertie's I think. (whether or not you think Bertie is a good leader)

AidoCQS

is_that_so wrote:

although I did see a clip of Bertie V Noonan(boxing again ) and he fairly tore into him. .

Yes, if anything Enda will have learned how not to do a Noonan, its no good winning (I typed arguements, then debates) slagging matches, when you come off looking like the schoolyard bully, very unstatesmanlike. That was Noonans problem always, brilliant in oposition, but dismal as the main man.

triple h

I reckon Bertie will win......why????......my reasons---

1)--every time Enda Kenny talks too much you get bored of him
2)--every time Bertie is in hot water and it looks like he can't get out of it (he is fecked in other words) you will always feel sorry for Bertie after Enda Kenny speaks.

Thats it.

Senator

I hope there's a good referee. Last night's was pathetic.

Agent J

I think we could make a drinking game out of this

Take a drink ...


Every time Bertie Mis pronounces Fine gael
Every time Enda speaks in Irish
Every time Bertie evades a question and takes 5 mins to answer
Every time Enda refers to his "15 point contract" instead of answering.


Every time the word "Tribunal" is mentioned

any other ideas?

triple h

very good Agent J,very funny, i liked those every times....

a drink, god thats good.

Every time Bertie tries to talk nice it actually sounds worse.

28064212

Senator wrote:

I hope there's a good referee. Last night's was pathetic.

Agreed, although Miriam should have an easier time of it, given that there's only two and none of them are McDowell

AgentJ wrote:

Take a drink ...
Every time Bertie Mis pronounces Fine gael
Every time Enda speaks in Irish
Every time Bertie evades a question and takes 5 mins to answer
Every time Enda refers to his "15 point contract" instead of answering.

Jaysus we'd be fairly plastered. After 15 minutes. Hospital victims after a half an hour. Where of course we'd be put on trolleys until we can come up with enough money to pay for our own stomach pumps. At least if Harney has her way

Agent J

Agent J wrote:

I think we could make a drinking game out of this

There has already been one drinking game to gain national attention out of a similar thread; see here and here.

DeepBlue

PH01 wrote:

The 'debate' result isn't going to matter tonight to those undecided voters as they won't be watching it. The only people to watch it will be politic-nutters like us. Everyone else will be watching something different or getting on with their lives.

You may be right but I don't think you are. People who normally wouldn't take the time to watch a current affairs program or read about politics in the paper will be watching this. It's also a water-cooler event as it will be discussed all over the country tomorrow. I think as well (though I may be wrong) that it gets one of the highest viewership figures of the year.

Anyway Ahern needs to win this - if he loses or if it's a draw then Kenny wins.

I'd say, however, that the FG backroom boys will be more nervous about this debate than the FF backroom boys. Kenny is susceptible to the badly timed gaffe and he's susceptible to an ambush from FF.
If FF do any serious damage here then it could badly affect FG's chances. If Kenny scores heavily though it will probably have a lesser impact on FF. After all Noonan was widely judged to have won the last debate and FG were practically wiped out shortly afterwards.

In short it's a big night for Kenny. He has to perform and he's exactly where the FG team have avoided placing him all during the campaign thus far - in a TV studio having to give lengthy answers to questions! In his favour though is the fact that all he has to do is break even.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Agent J

Personally i think that Ahern isnt very good as a debator outside of a controlled enviroment like the Dail.

I would also rather it was Pat Rabitte and not Enda because pat rabitte is a much more effective at getting the point accross.

Having said that though it would be entertaining to have
Bertie "One of the few socalists" Ahern VS Joe Higgins outside of the Dail and Ceam Comhariale Control

That would be something to watch..

ateam

Voters should watch 80 minutes of Kenny and see how much he repeats his contract, how he wants to change Ireland (but won't go into details) and ehhhh that's it!

diarmuidmac

who'd you think will speak 1st ?

will the courtesy be given to the Bert as the Big Cheese ?

Paddypower are taking bets on the 1st cliche uttered by either Bert or Inda

Applies to the first phrase used by either Bertie or Enda during the Election Debate on RTE Primetime on Thursday 17th May 2007.

Let me Finish 3 - 1
You've wasted the people's money 8 - 1
I've answered that question 20 - 1
We deliver 6 - 1
2000 more Gardai on our streets 10 - 1
That's not what the polls suggest 33 - 1
You had your say, now let me have mine 6 - 1
There's no need to raise your voice 10 - 1
A lot done, more to do 50 - 1
Economic Prosperity 6 - 1 :cool: if the Bert speaks 1st i reckon
House in Beresford 12 - 1
We're not in Sean McDermott Street now 66 - 1
You've had ten years 6 - 1
Conning the people 12 - 1
Come here and give me a hug 100 - 1
Mahon Tribunal 7 - 1
False promises 12 - 1

Not expecting much and I am wary of the talking down of Kenny by people saying he has only to score draw etc

Those who are not interested in politics will not tune in.

Those who are active in party politics should be out canvassing.

Strictly for those who like to talk politics.

nesf

Deleted User wrote:

Those who are not interested in politics will not tune in.

Those who are active in party politics should be out canvassing.

Strictly for those who like to talk politics.

So, the majority of people?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

daveirl

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Yeah.

Those who are not interested in football won't watch it.

Serious fans will try and be there.

Strictly for those who like to talk football...

You could say tonight is for the political equivalent of the barstooling Sky football fan. That's not to say there aren't loads of them.

nesf

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

I think that it simply comes down to being a close election this year. That gets people interested and makes them feel like their vote counts for more. That and I think a lot of people underestimate the amount of people who are interested in politics and do vote but who don't go into analysis and such on forums like this.

nesf

Deleted User wrote:

Yeah.

Those who are not interested in football won't watch it.

Serious fans will try and be there.

Strictly for those who like to talk football...

You could say tonight is for the political equivalent of the barstooling Sky football fan. That's not to say there aren't loads of them.

I don't like the distinction "serious fans". You see it a lot in music where you're not a "real fan" unless you make huge efforts to go to concerts and other such nonsense. A fan is a fan, whether they watch the odd few televised games or turn up in the rain to follow their team on the unimportant matches. When it comes to politics it's even less of a distinction since your vote counts for as much if you can list off every policy on a party manifesto or you barely can remember the candidates names never mind their policies.

Agent Smith

Deleted User wrote:

.

Those who are active in party politics should be out canvassing.

tbh, 9:40 is too late to be out canvassing

brianthebard

nesf wrote:

I think that it simply comes down to being a close election this year. That gets people interested and makes them feel like their vote counts for more. That and I think a lot of people underestimate the amount of people who are interested in politics and do vote but who don't go into analysis and such on forums like this.

There was a similar viewership for these debates in 2002 afaik. I'm looking forward to it anyways, must get some study done between now and then.

AidoCQS

Agent J wrote:

I think we could make a drinking game out of this

Take a drink ...

Every time Bertie evades a question and takes 5 mins to answer

any other ideas?

That suggestion makes me think you should seriously re-evaluate your relationship with drink. Its a recipe to never to sober up. This might be a little flag that you should get yourself down to a AA meeting and lay off the beer for a while.

Jackz

Of course the the Christian Liberals won't allow you to make that decision for yourself.

Agent J

Deleted User wrote:

Yeah.

Those who are not interested in football won't watch it.

Serious fans will try and be there.

Strictly for those who like to talk football...

You could say tonight is for the political equivalent of the barstooling Sky football fan. That's not to say there aren't loads of them.

Disputed.

To continue with the football anaoglies.

This isnt like the local derby or local county match that only the hard core fans will watch.

This is the big leagues like the FA Cup final or All Ireland Final. They ALWAYS drag in the people who have less than a passing interest in things which is
why viewer ship of such is always a lot higher.

Mainly its out of curiosity and to see what the political junkies are going on about.

Agent J

AidoCQS wrote:

That suggestion makes me think you should seriously re-evaluate your relationship with drink. Its a recipe to never to sober up. This might be a little flag that you should get yourself down to a AA meeting and lay off the beer for a while.

My relationship with beer like FG relationship with government.

Always within sight but just out of reach.

agent smith

agent smith wrote:

tbh, 9:40 is too late to be out canvassing

Hey, watch Curb Your Enthusiasm.

10 pm IS the cut off point!!

whassupp2

Come on the Berie!!

McSandwich

Agent J wrote:

Mainly its out of curiosity and to see what the political junkies are going on about.

Giving interviews to Hotpress?? Sorry, couldn't resist

cappamj

Agent J wrote:

I think we could make a drinking game out of this

Take a drink ...


Every time Bertie Mis pronounces Fine gael
Every time Enda speaks in Irish
Every time Bertie evades a question and takes 5 mins to answer
Every time Enda refers to his "15 point contract" instead of answering.


Every time the word "Tribunal" is mentioned

any other ideas?

Agent J-- hope you are not one of them "floating voters" because between the drink and loo trips you are not going to learn much.
On second thoughts there will probably be sod all to learn anyway, Enda never smoked pot only 3 woodbines when he was ten and then got sick.

Owen

I think Edna's voice may loose it for him. He drones on at the same pitch, rising up one step, and then back down to the usual hum after a second. It grates. And funnily enough, I am voting Fine Gael.

darkman2

Right its just about to start. Bertie to win:D

Dave!

Here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go!

ned78's point was so important he had to say it 3 times

Come on the Inda!

darkman2

The big fight - LIVE!:D

Jackz

Coooooooome oooonnn (Ronan Voice)

Time Magazine

Come on Enda!

Bertie off to a bad start, very nervous.