Early Winter Cold spells/snaps up to 31/12/06

Danno

Looks like a 1040 HP will drift up towards Ireland from the Azores. A tropical storm currently developing over the ocean south of the Azores will be responsible for sending HP our way.

The following could happen:

* The HP could drift over us and lodge. Result: up to two weeks of dead weather. Cloudy by day and by night and mild enough. 5-7 by night, 8-10 by day.

* The HP could move to our west and link in with the Greenland High. Result: a quick shift to cold weather, sunny, largly dry, some wintry showers later in northern areas and exposed coastal areas.

* The HP could move to our south east. Result: Repeat episode of the last 10 days.

* The HP could move to our north and become a "Scandi High" Result: Normally this would be exciting news, but with Europe about 10c milder than average we would just get cool cloudy weather. We need about 10 days of this "Scandi High" to drag cold air (which is currently stuck deep in Siberia) all the way to Ireland.

My expectation is for Option 1.

BigCon

So, assuming that each outcome has an equal outcome of occurring, then we have a 75% chance of 10 days of dry weather.

Danno wrote:

Looks like a 1040 HP will drift up towards Ireland from the Azores. A tropical storm currently developing over the ocean south of the Azores will be responsible for sending HP our way.

The following could happen:

* The HP could drift over us and lodge. Result: up to two weeks of dead weather. Cloudy by day and by night and mild enough. 5-7 by night, 8-10 by day.

* The HP could move to our west and link in with the Greenland High. Result: a quick shift to cold weather, sunny, largly dry, some wintry showers later in northern areas and exposed coastal areas.

* The HP could move to our south east. Result: Repeat episode of the last 10 days.

* The HP could move to our north and become a "Scandi High" Result: Normally this would be exciting news, but with Europe about 10c milder than average we would just get cool cloudy weather. We need about 10 days of this "Scandi High" to drag cold air (which is currently stuck deep in Siberia) all the way to Ireland.

My expectation is for Option 1.

Danno

Nope, we have 75% chance of drier weather.

Snowbie

Good account there Danno,With a broad strong HP of 1040 drifting from the azores,ill go with a typical anticyclonic gloom parking itself on our doorstep.

SpitfireIV

So no sign of any significant *COUGH*snow.....or even cold during the festive period, drats!!

What happened back in 2004, we got that sudden cold on Christmas day (or was it Christmas eve?) that brought the snow, was that expected or just come out of no where?

Snowbie

It was mild enough on Christmas eve during daylight hours iirc but the evening got bitter and overnight.It was mild however leading up to the christmas peroid and was forecasted to get cold right in time for the big day itself.I think the 23rd Dec it was confirmed that places will see a white christmas of 2004.

Again i wouldnt listen to a forecast greater than 4 or 5 days away,its all FI after that.So wait untill at least the 21st of this month to get idea on what we shall expect and 23rd will know for sure.It will either snow or it wont is our two chances here.

Gonzo

The bbc have updated their forecast for next 2 weeks and it looks like its gonna be very mild and often unsettled with no sign of any snow except maybe on high ground a few times in Scotland.

I dont pay too much attention in the BBC one,its usually as conservative as weatherchecks is hopefull

I tend to look for hints in the official UKMO that they are starting to agree with a trend that we might see appearing in the public model output.

Now getting back into fantasy land.
If we were to have a pattern change,this ECM wouldnt be a bad start.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006121100!!chart.gif

A nice cold high decending from the north,low pressure over the azores and a Western Russia Low causing cold artic air to spill down into the near continent.
The next nice thing to happen would be for the high to retrogress eastwards and sit over northern Scandinavia giving us a heavenly [hellish] icy easterly blast.

ninebeanrows

The models this evening are difficult to gauge..

As far as the next 7 days are concerned it looks like after a few mild and unsettled days this might turn settled and cool towards and over the weekend.

Looking further ahead it is very difficult to acertain where the high pressure succesively progged around Europe at 180hrs will go.. It could sit over Europe and provide mild yuke or it could move northwards and get colder..

But at this stage any very cold weather spell looks very distant.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

But at this stage any very cold weather spell looks very distant.

I wouldnt dispair.
FI was never really reliable.
As you know forecasts especially in this mobile situation are ropey at best beyond 5 days.

Basically you are right,cold weather looks distant but that doesn't mean that it is distant.

Snowbie

Becoming chillier for the weekend with some frosty nights.A more seasonal festive feeling even if its for a night or two.

Snowbie

Seems like the snow evaded us this time round before the New year.

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