Early Winter Cold spells/snaps up to 31/12/06

darkman2

The 06z has backed away from the more widespread snow scenario. However things are still up in the air. The orientation and depth of the Low is crucial. 50 miles this way or that way making an awful lot of difference. Its worth noting that the ECM is not in agreement with the GFS at 72hrs. So nothing certan by any means. By the end of the day though the situation will be alot clearer:)

Snow or no snow a shock to the system is looking very likely.

Snowbie

I do agree DM,you cant forecast the track on a complex LP untill its nearly on top of you time wise.A nowcast.
It will be a welcome to see some early cold regardless of snow or not.

darkman2

From the UKMO:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/warnings.shtml

Snowbie

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Gonzo

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

sorry I dont understand those charts but i presume by the colours it means that it will be cold here?

SpitfireIV

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Very cold?

Tell us...tell us...tell us! I've been watching this thread since 8.30am, the suspence is killing me

Gonzo

The BBC are going for mild, wet weather between now and 17th December throughout the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Hard to say considering we don't have the 850hpa charts but going by that i'd say temps of say 5-6c in Eastern with rain/sleet/hail showers possible. 6-9c in the west. Thickness values in those charts just down to 528 in the east you need around 520 to be assured that precip would be of snow. Between 524 - 530 you need many other things to go your way including dew points and 850hpa temperatures and precipitation intensity.

Supercell

Yep, would agree with WC, the temps he's posted seem pretty much on the mark.

Think a lot of factors need to come together for snow at this time of year and they are not present in the near future.

That said its November and winter proper here doesnt usually start until around the third week of December..however it is drawing ever closer.

This year is could well deliver imho (just not yet) ..its going to be a rollercoaster ride

ninebeanrows

Yea Longfield;)

This Thursday looks like seeing a extremely deep depression rattling through Ireland. Cant be precises at this stage but the depression is progged to be as low as 953mb - 965mb and crosses pretty much directly over Ireland. Highest winds will occur just south of the center and at the moment seem like they will be worst over Munster and Southern Leinster (possibly in excess of 60kt gustsor higher) coupled with lots of rain and very low pressure.

Could get worse could get better but the full 10 runs from the GFS give a good representation of the possible outcomes for the LP's.

Snowbie

Right lads,good answers about the chart.You never mentioned the wind direction which would be a potent easterly.
Dewpoints will be low at or near freezing point with air temps from 3 to 5 degrees in east,coldest just inland from east coast with temps a tad higher in west.

With a 528 Dam,850hpa temps would be -5 so snow would be a posibility inland east but as you said WC 520 Dam would be sufficient for snow on the coast line with very low single figure temps.500 Dam,well happy days.

Now the chart i posted is an indication of what we need for snow if a scandinavian (HP)block established itself there.A gradual cooling down peroid with a 520 on the east coast eventually.
Unfortunately it would look like that chart will not come off anytime soon.But i think its fair to say that the transition is well under way from a late autumn to an early winter.

EDIT:ooops forgot to say,this is what i always went by when snow is potentially falling on the coast.Inland and especially higher elevations will be more favourable within the 528 dam line.

My Davis has had the snow symbol on it again all day.

Snow would be impossible,I think with a temp of 7.4c and a dp of 2.5c.

Snowbie

I got the same last evening.
Temp was 6.9c
dp 3.1c
hum 80%
Pressure was 990.6mb.

But when the temp dropped the symbol went off it.
Again be impossible too but it is the second time i saw it at 6.9c.

Trogdor

Models are changing, quite a long way out but still.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1743.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html
Ufortunately, just a bit further out the atlantic breaks back through again.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.html
I personally it will start to turn colder though and the atlantic will not break back in.

Hal1

Woah, that looks interesting. More gales force winds/rain on the way then? I doubt anything else would come of it as the temps are not low enough, but that could change.

Gonzo

wasnt there some guy on a uk forum who claims to have deep weather knowledge who was claiming 'the day after tomorrow' style winter from end of November onwards into December for the UK/Ireland? So far it looks like he is wrong, The bbc are going for reasonably mild weather into the 1st week of December at least.

SpitfireIV

Gonzo wrote:

wasnt there some guy on a uk forum who claims to have deep weather knowledge who was claiming 'the day after tomorrow' style winter from end of November onwards into December for the UK/Ireland? So far it looks like he is wrong, The bbc are going for reasonably mild weather into the 1st week of December at least.

There was, yes, but so far he hasnt returned to explain where his predictions went wrong :rolleyes:

Trogdor

That cold snap is still showing up, even if it is a very short one.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1562.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1563.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn15617.png

Edit: way too far out to mean anything but GFS is hinting colder stuff again
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.html

Trogdor

Blizzard conditions for next Saturday...if only:p
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=Dublin

squonk

Looking at RTE's long range forecast yesterdy, they have an icey blast penciled in for Thurs/Fri. This looks like our first true blast of the winter. What are your opinions of late December/early Jan at the moment? Are we likely to see something more prolonged in the scarves and mittens kind of weather to come or are we stuck with more of these stormy conditions going forward?

Trogdor

Well it looks like this stormy weather will be continuing for a while, with only very brief cooler/colder periods like thursday/friday. Due to one of those stormy lows dragging some cooler air in behind it. I think the stormy pattern might begin to change around or just after mid month.

LoL at the article in todays evening herald.
It was based on the predictions of a named private forecasting company.

Their LRF/winter forecast is for 3 more severe "100mph" storms before Xmas and Blizzards in january and February as very cold air moves in from Russia and Scandanavia...

Brace yourselves

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

LoL at the article in todays evening herald.
It was based on the predictions of a named private forecasting company.

Their LRF/winter forecast is for 3 more severe "100mph" storms before Xmas and Blizzards in january and February as very cold air moves in from Russia and Scandanavia...

Brace yourselves

I hear it was Piers... Piers Corboyn:rolleyes:

Danno

Who???

Hal1

Where is this guy getting his/her information, and how do they conflict with your/current knowledge of the LRF's charts? We all know weather patterns can change dramatically in a short space of time.

Google is your friend

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/05/trying-to-bet-on-climate-with-piers.html

Hal1

Tristrame wrote:

Google is your friend

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/05/trying-to-bet-on-climate-with-piers.html

....So I heard . Ahh yes I heard of him now after reading that, sounds a bit silly.

SpitfireIV

Anyone have any idea (or wild guess ) as to what weather we can expect over the Christmas period? I know its still a little while off, but any cold spells in store for us?

ninebeanrows

Hey Croppyboy

It looks like there is a big chance of a pattern change in the lead up to Christmas.. It looks like the weather will settle down at very least with a small chance of the first cold spell of the winter arriving before chrimbo..:)

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

Hey Croppyboy

It looks like there is a big chance of a pattern change in the lead up to Christmas.. It looks like the weather will settle down at very least with a small chance of the first cold spell of the winter arriving before chrimbo..:)

Cheers Weathercheck, sounds interesting alright, I'll live in hope

Good site you have by the way, well done and good luck with it:)