Early Winter Cold spells/snaps up to 31/12/06

Snowbie

Continue to post here on forthcoming cold peroids during early winter up to the end of December.

Please post your low temps in the appropiate thread found [thread=2055010225]here.[/thread]

Keep your posts on topic here and discuss a forecast for a possible/potential up and coming winter event be it cold/wind/frost/ice or snow.

A thread will/can be created for snow if and when the time comes and not before the first snow has fallen and then post in thereafter for every snow event.This is to keep our forum tidy.

Thanks.:)

darkman2

I like the ECM and GFS tonight:D

Snowbie

Hey DM can you post the links for all to see.

Thanks.:)

lucernarian

I'd say it's because of this:
GFS charts for Saturday Night

It's nothing short of amazing to see such a high-powered cyclone migrate south for the winter:D

The charts however continue the progression to the south-east and it stalls in Scandanavia anyway.

In over 4 days, a lot could still happen but it's just a tempter for the moment.

Snowbie

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I'd say it's because of this:
GFS charts for Saturday Night

It's nothing short of amazing to see such a high-powered cyclone migrate south for the winter:D

The charts however continue the progression to the south-east and it stalls in Scandanavia anyway.

In over 4 days, a lot could still happen but it's just a tempter for the moment.

Now that looks like that "Day after the next day thingy film" you know the one when it gets cold.Is that shot taken from that film.:D

Looks a nice storm coming from the North alright,this came outa nowhere,be interesting if the next run where same.But i doubt it.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

I like the ECM and GFS tonight:D

Yeah it would be mad crack if it was january.

Snowbie

From a few runs,a potential cool/cold spell from this sunday.Still a way off atm but looks like turning a lot cooler at present.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1325.png

darkman2

Hi


Im not actually talking about Saturday or Sunday - the following week looks far more interesting. Will post charts later.


Although it will certainly be colder at the weekend.:)

Snowbie

Yeah DM,A short cold plunge on Sunday then milder for a time and next week looks like cold atm but in FI territory.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Yeah DM,A short cold plunge on Sunday then milder for a time and next week looks like cold atm but in FI territory.

It is FI and is subject to change, I agree. Potential for colder weather. Not snow or anything like that but something more seasonal:)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006110812!!chart.gif




Just an example at 168hrs. If its not there tomorrow just ignore:)

Snowbie

metcheck wrote:

High pressure once again building across the UK during Thursday bringing a settled, cool and sunny day for many areas, however a big change is on the cards.

Over the next couple of days, a large upper ridge builds over the country. To the West of this, a marked trough is waiting in the wings, ready to bring another blast of chilly air Southwards across the UK this weekend.

This trough, is the wake up call for Winter. It's the change which develops into a series of complex upper lows to the North of the UK over the coming fortnight.

So, enjoy the next few days. November is likely to show us all that Winter can come in all shapes and sizes for the UK.

Agree or disagree? Will it be a repeat performance from last year?.
A tease of winter now and nothing till feb/march?
Or is it a sign of things to come?,
So far its an avg month,was expected to be above avg regarding temps.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Agree or disagree? Will it be a repeat performance from last year?.
A tease of winter now and nothing till feb/march?
Or is it a sign of things to come?,
So far its an avg month,was expected to be above avg regarding temps.

The charts are encouraging atm however that forcast may be premature. Temperatures look to go below average for a time but how long it stays like that is anyones guess. We will have to see over the next couple of days whether the GH can maintain a block allowing a sustained northerly/northwesterly flow. Or the block could be too far west, in which case the cold air runs harmlessly into the Atlantic. Its still very early days.

Snowbie

Well tbh DM that euro high has to be displaced for any type cold event from the North.
Untill then every cold airmass from polar regions will be deflected to Norway and down central europe leaving us in this mild moist atlantic flow.

Trogdor

The 06z run is certainly showing the colder air filtering in on friday night,
Friday 24:00

Saturday 06:00

Trogdor

Cold Ahoy, that's more like it
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/96_30.gif

ninebeanrows

Yep interesting, a strange set-up with cold dragged in on a westerly...

Friday is a day to watch with potential mountain snow across Ireland...

And those charts show interesting maxima.

Should be a cold day..

lets keep any eye eh;)

darkman2

We will see, snow is inevitable though on the 18z:

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

Not quite so inevitable on this mornings runs though.

Personally I never get too stuck on the possibility of a decent snowfall untill at least mid to late December.From there on in,the source of the cold air,wherever it comes from, is at or getting towards its coldest and ergo has the most effect if it gets here.

Villain

Met are going for Sleet/Snow on high ground Friday with wintry showers Saturday, temps for Sunday look to be very low.

Snowbie

We are dealing with a complex LP,any deviation on its track can have a impact on how mild/cool/cold it will get.If snow where to fall it will be on the mountain tops but it is still early to predict what outcome we are to get.
Nice to see if it were to happen,it will be a succesive novembers at which snow were to fall or forecast.

December is a month were the last of the autumn warmth still hangs on and needs a cold blast to get rid of this residual warmth,this week will help if it goes to plan.
Our first real cold blast usually happens mid to late December,but no-one knows for sure.There is a lot of cold air pooling and flirting with us up north.This would be very interesting if it where sucked southwards.

Snowbie

The GFS[FI] for next week has a building siberian HP going retro as well as a possible Greenland block coming into the picture.This is far away atm.

ninebeanrows

6z is interesting again,

Friday and Saturday depended on the track of the LP will be cold and potentially with snow over mountains. Saturday on the 6z see's maxima of 4c a chilling change from of late.

Villain

18z seems to show its going to cold Friday and Saturday alright with sleet and snow on high ground: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn9617.png

ninebeanrows

Friday Maxima - Going to be a shock to the system!

darkman2

A definate risk of snow to low levels. Something to keep an eye on.....

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

Scubadevils

I spent the last three months without broadband and come back tonight to find cold looming Another rollercoaster winter ahead no doubt.

Trogdor

darkman2 wrote:

A definate risk of snow to low levels. Something to keep an eye on.....

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

I thought last nights run was good, but this is even better.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/66_30.gif:D

Edit:Not updated to the 18z run yet, but metcheck's forecast looks good:D, maximum of 2 all day with sleet and snow
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Dublin&day=3

ninebeanrows

Friday and Saturday looking cold wet and potentially very windy.

Temps of just 1-4c on Saturday on the 0z but the tracking of the LP across Ireland is very uncertain at this moment.

Potential for snow is there especially i reckon in the east mids.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Friday and Saturday looking cold wet and potentially very windy.

Temps of just 1-4c on Saturday on the 0z but the tracking of the LP across Ireland is very uncertain at this moment.

Potential for snow is there especially i reckon in the east mids.

Im still not entirely convinced however if that run came off it would I think bring snow to most places even down to sea level.

Villain

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/78_30.gif

Looks like anyone up the Wicklow mountains might see some real white stuff. However I would be very surprised if anything other than sleet was to fall at sea level.

Going to be cold though, bloody cold.

Snowbie

I cant really see the daytime minima being lower than 6c here in Dublin on friday.Any snow reserved for the highest mountains.

EDIT:Just saw the charts etc,becoming a wind event will certainly make it a lot colder(wind chill).Im still not convinced that temps will be struggling to get above freezing as these are guestimates from those charts.

darkman2

The 06z has backed away from the more widespread snow scenario. However things are still up in the air. The orientation and depth of the Low is crucial. 50 miles this way or that way making an awful lot of difference. Its worth noting that the ECM is not in agreement with the GFS at 72hrs. So nothing certan by any means. By the end of the day though the situation will be alot clearer:)

Snow or no snow a shock to the system is looking very likely.

Snowbie

I do agree DM,you cant forecast the track on a complex LP untill its nearly on top of you time wise.A nowcast.
It will be a welcome to see some early cold regardless of snow or not.

darkman2

From the UKMO:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/warnings.shtml

Snowbie

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Gonzo

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

sorry I dont understand those charts but i presume by the colours it means that it will be cold here?

SpitfireIV

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Very cold?

Tell us...tell us...tell us! I've been watching this thread since 8.30am, the suspence is killing me

Gonzo

The BBC are going for mild, wet weather between now and 17th December throughout the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Question
Have a look at the chart from TWO below.
Now put aside it being a long time away,who can tell me what it will feel like if that came off and the type of weather one would experience.Have a guess

Hard to say considering we don't have the 850hpa charts but going by that i'd say temps of say 5-6c in Eastern with rain/sleet/hail showers possible. 6-9c in the west. Thickness values in those charts just down to 528 in the east you need around 520 to be assured that precip would be of snow. Between 524 - 530 you need many other things to go your way including dew points and 850hpa temperatures and precipitation intensity.

Supercell

Yep, would agree with WC, the temps he's posted seem pretty much on the mark.

Think a lot of factors need to come together for snow at this time of year and they are not present in the near future.

That said its November and winter proper here doesnt usually start until around the third week of December..however it is drawing ever closer.

This year is could well deliver imho (just not yet) ..its going to be a rollercoaster ride

ninebeanrows

Yea Longfield;)

This Thursday looks like seeing a extremely deep depression rattling through Ireland. Cant be precises at this stage but the depression is progged to be as low as 953mb - 965mb and crosses pretty much directly over Ireland. Highest winds will occur just south of the center and at the moment seem like they will be worst over Munster and Southern Leinster (possibly in excess of 60kt gustsor higher) coupled with lots of rain and very low pressure.

Could get worse could get better but the full 10 runs from the GFS give a good representation of the possible outcomes for the LP's.

Snowbie

Right lads,good answers about the chart.You never mentioned the wind direction which would be a potent easterly.
Dewpoints will be low at or near freezing point with air temps from 3 to 5 degrees in east,coldest just inland from east coast with temps a tad higher in west.

With a 528 Dam,850hpa temps would be -5 so snow would be a posibility inland east but as you said WC 520 Dam would be sufficient for snow on the coast line with very low single figure temps.500 Dam,well happy days.

Now the chart i posted is an indication of what we need for snow if a scandinavian (HP)block established itself there.A gradual cooling down peroid with a 520 on the east coast eventually.
Unfortunately it would look like that chart will not come off anytime soon.But i think its fair to say that the transition is well under way from a late autumn to an early winter.

EDIT:ooops forgot to say,this is what i always went by when snow is potentially falling on the coast.Inland and especially higher elevations will be more favourable within the 528 dam line.

My Davis has had the snow symbol on it again all day.

Snow would be impossible,I think with a temp of 7.4c and a dp of 2.5c.

Snowbie

I got the same last evening.
Temp was 6.9c
dp 3.1c
hum 80%
Pressure was 990.6mb.

But when the temp dropped the symbol went off it.
Again be impossible too but it is the second time i saw it at 6.9c.

Trogdor

Models are changing, quite a long way out but still.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1743.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html
Ufortunately, just a bit further out the atlantic breaks back through again.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.html
I personally it will start to turn colder though and the atlantic will not break back in.

Hal1

Woah, that looks interesting. More gales force winds/rain on the way then? I doubt anything else would come of it as the temps are not low enough, but that could change.

Gonzo

wasnt there some guy on a uk forum who claims to have deep weather knowledge who was claiming 'the day after tomorrow' style winter from end of November onwards into December for the UK/Ireland? So far it looks like he is wrong, The bbc are going for reasonably mild weather into the 1st week of December at least.

SpitfireIV

Gonzo wrote:

wasnt there some guy on a uk forum who claims to have deep weather knowledge who was claiming 'the day after tomorrow' style winter from end of November onwards into December for the UK/Ireland? So far it looks like he is wrong, The bbc are going for reasonably mild weather into the 1st week of December at least.

There was, yes, but so far he hasnt returned to explain where his predictions went wrong :rolleyes:

Trogdor

That cold snap is still showing up, even if it is a very short one.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1562.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1563.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn15617.png

Edit: way too far out to mean anything but GFS is hinting colder stuff again
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.html

Trogdor

Blizzard conditions for next Saturday...if only:p
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=Dublin

squonk

Looking at RTE's long range forecast yesterdy, they have an icey blast penciled in for Thurs/Fri. This looks like our first true blast of the winter. What are your opinions of late December/early Jan at the moment? Are we likely to see something more prolonged in the scarves and mittens kind of weather to come or are we stuck with more of these stormy conditions going forward?