Football investments for 2006/7 season

westtip

I am struggling to find a bet on a single match basis this weekend, but have gone for one match only in the Turkish Super league, Glatasary to win v Gaziantspor at the price of 1.25 on Betfair (1.2375 after commission), I wouldn't take any less about this. Most of the mainstream bookies go around the 1.2 mark which is not good enough. Gretna away from home interested me, but after the mid week match v Derry they may be a little fatigued. Celtic and Bayern were also possibilities but staying away from them for time being. €50 to win on Galatary at 1.25 or better if you can get it on the xchs.

westtip

westtip wrote:

I am struggling to find a bet on a single match basis this weekend, but have gone for one match only in the Turkish Super league, Glatasary to win v Gaziantspor at the price of 1.25 on Betfair (1.2375 after commission), I wouldn't take any less about this. Most of the mainstream bookies go around the 1.2 mark which is not good enough. Gretna away from home interested me, but after the mid week match v Derry they may be a little fatigued. Celtic and Bayern were also possibilities but staying away from them for time being. €50 to win on Galatary at 1.25 or better if you can get it on the xchs.

struggling is the right word. Galatasary draw at home, having gong 1-0 up so that is a loser, the others I considered were a mixed bunch, Gretna strove on with a 0-3 away win, Celtic won and Bayern only managed a draw, but overall a disappointment in Galatasary which knocks me back virtually to stage one, such is life, but the uphill struggle continues.

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1250
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 18.1
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 1.4%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ 36 points Turnover 25 points POT 1.4%

New Bank 893.10 with 125 committed to long term season bets.

westtip

One bet this weekend, possibly a second later in the weekend (would be on a Sunday match). Friday September 1, Derry City to beat UCD @ 1.36 with Paddy Power, or better if you can match it on the xcchgs. €50 to win at 1.36

Apparently this match is on Sunday, I thought it was Friday when I first posted it up

Raskolnikov

Ireland available at 19/2 on betfair.com to beat Germany, crazy price!

Nalz

Still unbackable. A draw might be worth a go alright.

My Accum for Saturday - 12/1 in Paddy Powers. Risky enough


Scotland v Faroes
Tranmere v Layton Orient
Latvia v Sweden
Port Vale v Doncaster
Forfar v Ayr Utd

Chucky the tree

Westip i recommend taking shels aswell. Away to bray and should win easily.

I will be taking the double on them. And also small stakes on the -1 handicap which is just over 5/1.

westtip

Chucky I willtake a look at that one for my own account. Putting up one more bet in the Euro qualifiers - Italy to bt Lithuania, @1.18 on betfair. This really shoudl be a shoe in and a lot of the mainstream bookies go about 1.10, I think the price even at 1.18 pre comms is good €50 to win.

I wouldn't go near the irish match, you just never know, nothing to do with national emotion or pride, There is every possibility they will get completely stuffed, yet a draw wouldn't surprise me. It is a sit and suffer match for me.

westtip

Although it is only the end of August, the first month of the season is now over, Here is my monthly review of where we stand with the long term acca bets recommended this season, three bets were advised in the OP on 4th August and fourth bet was aded on 7th August

Bet 1 25 euro:Celtic @ 2.00, Chelsea @1.44, Gretna @ 1.73, Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Anderlecht @1.66, Porto @ 1.91, Linfield @ 1.5 and Barcalona @ 1.57. The cumulative odds on this bet are a very attractive 74.87.

Advised with Skybet the odds today are:

Bet 1:Celtic @ 1.72, Chelsea @1.50, Gretna @ 1.40, Lyon @ 1.16, Bayern @1.50, Anderlecht @1.125, Porto @ 1.91, Linfield @ 1.5 and Barcalona @ 1.44. The cumulative odds now on this bet are down to 29.01 a considerable price shift and shows the value in getting in early with these accas. Two teams have drifted, Chelsea and Bayern and TBH Chelsea I think are going to be the big concern, but one trip up against Boro does not a season make.

Bet 2 I am recommending a treble on these three: Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Linfield @ 1.5 which pays 3.024 (equivalent to a little over 2/1). I recommend €12.5 on this - with the plan if it comes up the winnings will cover the speculative acca if that fails (of course the three bankers will have to come in!). A profit of €25.30 would be accrued.

This bet would now pay 2.61 (1.61/1.

Bet 3: I also recommend a similar treble on Anderlecht @ 1.66 Porto @1.91 and Celtic at 2.00 - odds of 6.34 (ie 5.34/1) a stake of €12.50 is recommended to give a profit of €66.9

This bet is now down to a price of 3.69 (i1 2.69/1)

These first three bets were advised in the first post on the thread. A fourth long term bet was added on 7th August:

Bet 4: I am adding one more long term bet to the pot, on Gretna 1.5, Lyon 1.25, Bayern 1.44 and Linfield 1.5 - skybet €50 was recommended on this which is now down to 3.65 from the original price of 4.05.

All the long term bets have shortened up in price. In reality it is too early to say which teams are looking very good and which are giving cause of concern, apart from Gretna looking great and Chelsea looking not as nailed as many of us first thought. That is the nature of these bets - they are relatively low stakes for what will be high returns if they come off. The good news is the value at the early part of the season has proven worth taking at this stage in the game. We shall see how things progress in September.

westtip

One more selction for hte weekend internationals - Scotland to beat the Faroe islands. Scotland famously managed to draw witht he Faroes several years ago when Sottish international football fell to its lowest ebb, they seem to be improving these days and I don't think even the jocks can fail to beat the Faroes. Its a low price at 1.125 (1/8) best price with Skybet, but I think it is worth the investment. 50 Euro to win at 1.125 with Skybet.

westtip

Well Scotland managed to bury the ghost of past performances against the Faroes, not a lot you can say about Italy ranked 2 by Fifa managing to draw with Lithuania, and Derry just came up against a very determined UCD team A net loss on the three bets of -93.75 Euro, was not exaclty on the agenda. I find these kind of losing runs happen - betting to the same strategy last year of always trying to find the value in matches I believe are highly uncompetitive resulted in 26 winners on the spin, and my longest losing run in the last five years remains at 3.

I have four bets this midweek period all on the xchgs: Ukraine to bt Georgia @ 1.27 , Norway to bt Moldova @ 1.28, NLs to bt Belarus 1.19 and Spain to beat NI @ 1.27.

At the moment all I can see is thank god the long term bets are still looking half decent, but coming off a losing period the only way to look at it is upwards and with optimism. I will update the bank after this series of bets

westtip

Still need to update the bank - another slight fall after the NI freak result - and lets face fact, the first goal a huge defensive error, the second goal the same and the third the goalkeeper should hav ebeen shot for. Forget the hype from BBC NI this is a crap team that should have been beaten easily by Spain - playing in red they should have all worn white beards and santa hats.

We move on: AThree selections this weekend all prices are betfair pre commission: Chelski @ 1.22, Fenerbache @ 1.19, Club Brugge @ 1.25 in a hurry today but will update bank and records b4 weekend closes.

another case of moving forward then knocked back by the last selection of the day +0.38 on the first two bets (post commission) then -1 on clubb Brugge - a loss on the day of 0.62 = -31 Euro on the bank

westtip

Updting last few results - on a points basis:

Scotland +.125
Italy -1
Derry -1
Norway +.2565
NLs +0.266
Northern Ire -1
Chelski +.209
fernerbache +0.1805
Club Brugge -1

Recent run total: -2.963 @ 50 euro a bet = -148.15 T/0 450

Not very good but these kind of runs happen


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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1700
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 130.05
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -7.6%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -2.60 points Turnover 34 points POT -7.6%

New Bank 744.95 with 125 committed to long term season bets.

westtip

Barcelona to bt Levski bets price 1.14 (may get 1.15) on betfair. 50 to win

westtip

Barcelona obliged comfortably lets hope this marks the beginning of raod to recovery or at least consistency. A C Milan to bt AEK at 1.23 on Betfair looks good to me for Wednesday evening 50 to win.

westtip

AC Milan obliged - surprisingly the price on Betfair drifted during yesterday and you could have got 1.26 at one point during hte day. Fenerbache should beat Randers tonight at 1.14 on Betfair €50 to win.

CELTIC were impressive last night - although made some stupid mistakes, they should be a confident of a home win against Dunfermline this weekend most bookies are down to the 1.14 mark with some of the big boys going as low as 1.10 - which is why the 1.21 (might get 1.22) on Betfair is great value - also 1.20 with Premier bet, a price worth taking today because it will IMO fall. €50 to win at 1.20 (post coms on exchanges or with Premier bet)

will update bank details after the weekend matches.

westtip

Fenerbache scared me by going 1-0 down before coming back to win 2-1 last night. At least another winner, don't think I will be doing much more than Celtic this weekend, the way the fixtures have fallen across Europe it is just one of those very tight weekends. Surprisingly the 1.21 and 1.22 has held up on Celtic on the xchgs which surprises me. While Dunfermline have been a bogey team for Celtic recently, this time (fatal last words) I think they will roll them over. Quic bank update with +0.49 of a point won on last three bets (post commision)

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1850
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 105.69
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -5.7%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -1.274 points Turnover 37 points POT -5.7%

New Bank 769.31 with 125 committed to long term season bets.

westtip

With the leagues all underway (bar NI which has not yet started), the one team which really worries me in the long term bets its Chelski. I think MUFC are playing very well, if this weekend MUFC beat Arsenal and Liverpool either beat or take 2 points off Chelski in a draw the price on MUFC will tumble, and they may become favs to win the premiership. As MUFC have done me in the past in a number of bets, and been the cause of much grief, I am putting up one more long terms acca which includes MUFC:

Acca with Skybet on MUFC @3.5, Celtic@1.72, Gretna @1.72, Lyon @1.20, Bayern @ 1.5, Linfield @ 1.40 and Barcalona @ 1.4. The acca pays odds of 36.5. I am putting up a saver bet of €25 on this acca to pay €913.25. I would just hate to see Celtic, Gretna, Lyon, Bayern, Linfield and Barca to win only for MUFC to trip up Chelski, and at the moment I think MUFC are the only serious challengers to them. Anyone want to add to this bet then I wouldn't put you off have a small wager on all of the above and adding New Zealand to win the rugby world cup at Even money to the list - a price of 73.06 for a bit of fun. I have certainly done it on my own betting account.

BTW if you want to do the same teams with Chelsea the price of Chelsea with Skybet is 1.44 - so the football acca only with Chelsea is now 15.02 and adding NZ makes it 30.04 (ie 29/1) again a small stake on this might be worthwhile if you have no accas running at present on the football season.

Recommended long term bet for the account: €25 on the MUFC and other teams at 36.5 (35.5/1)

Glenbhoy

Do Gretna not worry you at all - very bad defeat at the weekend, coupled with the Derry City defeat would suggest their defence can't be too hot.
Re Man Utd, I wouldn't be too worried about them just yet - i don't think they'll keep it going for the duration, they've had a pretty easy start to the season fixtures wise. Chelsea though have not caught fire at all, been very disappointed with Schevo, I spent a season watching him in Milan and he was the world's best at that stage, I thought he'd handle the premiership well (which is why I took the 5/1 about him top scoring in all my accums at the start of the season - doh!).
Best weekend bet - lay Kerry in the AIF, back draw at 15/1 on betfair - value if nothing else.

patmac

I can't see the point of backing Celtic @ 1/9 especially after a tough mid week fixture v Dunfermeline, and if it winns it will add little to the bet, could be a 'coupon buster'.

westtip

patmac wrote:

I can't see the point of backing Celtic @ 1/9 especially after a tough mid week fixture v Dunfermeline, and if it winns it will add little to the bet, could be a 'coupon buster'.

I agree, I wouldn't back Celtic at 1/9 (ie at 1.111) which is why I recommended taking the very generous 1.21 (pre coms 1.20 post coms) available on the exchanges - The average price on Celtic is about 1.14, so 1.20 represents great value, 1.11 (or 1/9 as you said) represents appalling value, and I would happily lay them at that price having backed them at 1.20 which happens to be 50% greater than the average and almost double the price you mention. I work on the basis of always achieving best price and trying to substantially beat the average price obtainable across a range of say 15 bookies.

westtip

Celtic only bet of weekend obliged @ 1.20 profit of ten euro

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1850
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 95.69
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -5.17%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -1.90 points Turnover 37 points POT -5.17%

New Bank 754.31 with 150* committed to long term season bets. * further 25 committed to long term accas on Friday 15th Sept.

westtip

AC Milan to beat Ascoli tonight @1.17 on Betfair. €50 to win.

westtip

AC Milan achieve an excellent 1-0 thrashing in true Italian style @ 1.16 post comms + 8 euro

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1900
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 87.69
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -4.46%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -1..74 points Turnover 38 points POT -4.46%

New Bank 770.31 with 150* committed to long term season bets. * further 25 committed to long term accas on Friday 15th Sept.

westtip

This weekend, Sunday, Ajax to win at 1.28 with Willhill v Nijmegen looks a good price and on Saturday, Bayern Munich at 1.26 on the exchanges or 1.25 with Betfred is ok - both €50 to win on each. Arsenal at 1.23 if you can get it on the xchgs, otherwise take 1.22 on the xchgs, most of the mainstream bookies are 1.20 or less.

westtip

Three nice winners at the weekend proft of 37 euro, hopefully this run will continue so we can get back to an even keel.

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €2050
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 50.69
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -2.43%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -1..74 points Turnover 41 points POT -2.43%

New Bank 807.31 with 150* committed to long term season bets.

Season objectives: Double bank by end of 06/07 season

westtip

Real Madrid to beat Dyanmo Kiev @ 1.25 - the price has shortened on the xchgs it is likely 1.26 will be achievable before KO tomorrow, although it is not available at the moment, but take the 1.25 available with Stan James to secure a price. €50 to win 1.25

westtip

Real Madrid deliver very easily +12.5 euro. Iintend having a few bets on the UEFA matches on Thursday but no more CL bets this week

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €2100
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 38.19
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: -1.8%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ -0.76%points Turnover 42 points POT -1.8%

New Bank 819.81 with 150* committed to long term season bets.

Season objectives: Double bank by end of 06/07 season

westtip

Six short price selections for the Uefa cup games tomorrow night, just the teams to back:

Lens @ 1.20 Corals, Grasshoppers was 1.25 with Coral - price gone best price now is 1.23 betfair (1.22 post coms) best bookie price 1.20 various, PSG (to beat Derry sorry but just think it will happen) 1.17 Laddies, Ajax @ 1.14 Laddies, Seville @ 1.14 various, Newcastle, 1.14 Laddies. For those interested in Accas the best price (using the great new tool at oddschecker.com) is Laddies at 2.32, the same acca at Paddy power for example is 2.16..its your choice but I would rather have an extra 0.16 profit if I can... although I will not be doing the acca myself.

All €50 win on each selection.

westtip

Take the 1.30 with Corals for AEK Athens this price will go €50 to win. 1.25 with couple of the mainstream bookies (Laddies for one) on Gretna looks good - You might get 1.26 or 1.27 on the xchgs, AZ Alkmar in NLs at 1.2 (skybet and one or two others), all €50 to win. but move on the 1.30 on AEK quickly this price will go.

westtip

westtip wrote:

Six short price selections for the Uefa cup games tomorrow night, just the teams to back:

Lens @ 1.20 Corals, Grasshoppers was 1.25 with Coral - price gone best price now is 1.23 betfair (1.22 post coms) best bookie price 1.20 various, PSG (to beat Derry sorry but just think it will happen) 1.17 Laddies, Ajax @ 1.14 Laddies, Seville @ 1.14 various, Newcastle, 1.14 Laddies. For those interested in Accas the best price (using the great new tool at oddschecker.com) is Laddies at 2.32, the same acca at Paddy power for example is 2.16..its your choice but I would rather have an extra 0.16 profit if I can... although I will not be doing the acca myself.

All €50 win on each selection.

Nice to get 6/6 and not get stitched up with one result slipping away - although Newcastle tried there best at 2-0 conceding 1 with quite a while to go - but thankfully they held on. The profit on all the bets at single point bets was 1.01, or 50.50 in cash terms - which taking account of long term bets puts me back in the black on the single match bets (just).

Lets hope this weekend keeps the winning run going.

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Current turnover excluding long term bets: €2400
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 12.31
PL on Turnover ex long term bets: Negligble (<0.01%)
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ 0.246 points Turnover 46 points POT Negligble (<0.01%)

New Bank 862.31 with 150* committed to long term season bets.

Season objectives: Double bank by end of 06/07 season

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