Football investments for 2006/7 season

westtip

As the magic of the season starts to kick in over Europe, we can all once again look forward to trying to make a few quid/euro from the beautiful game. So here is my challenge.

Imagine if you had a one thousand Euro bank (draw it down from those spare SSIA funds) and set yourself a challenge. Interest rates may be on the rise, but a thousand euro over nine months on deposit will still only make you about 4% if you really shop around. So how about aiming to double your money at the very least. Read this thread and watch how it can be done, or not...

To kick off we will have a few speculative long terms bets:

With Skybet.com I recommend the following accumulator on the teams to wi their respective league titles, all prices are in the decimal style (ie even money is 2.00, 2/5 is 1.4 etc)

Celtic @ 2.00, Chelsea @1.44, Gretna @ 1.73, Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Anderlecht @1.66, Porto @ 1.91, Linfield @ 1.5 and Barcalona @ 1.57. The cumulative odds on this bet are a very attractive 74.87.

I am going to recommend a stake of €25 at this price to collect €1871.75 - this truly will be the jackpot with winnings of €1846.75

Three of these teams are I believe nailed on bankers so I am recommending a treble on these three: Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Linfield @ 1.5 which pays 3.024 (equivalent to a little over 2/1). I recommend €12.5 on this - with the plan if it comes up the winnings will cover the speculative acca if that fails (of course the three bankers will have to come in!). A profit of €25.30 would be accrued.

I also recommend a similar treble on Anderlecht @ 1.66 Porto @1.91 and Celtic at 2.00 - odds of 6.34 (ie 5.34/1) a stake of €12.50 is recommended to give a profit of €66.96

In total these long term speculative bets will have cost us €50 to layout at the start of the season - and should give us the real chance of hitting the jackpot with the first bet.

Let me explain: Most leagues in Europe can be won by a max of three teams - in fact most are a match between the top two. Last year nearly all the favourites at the start of the season went on to win their domestic leagues. I have concentrated on the premier leagues in most countries - the fly in the ointment is Gretna - who have had millions invested in them by a fairy godfather who wants to get them into the SPL. They romped home two years ago in Scotish 3 and again in Scottish 2 last year - and last year they made their mark by getting to the SFA cup final - I fully expect them to beat all in front of them in Scottish 1 this year - znd to be in with the Scottish big boys next year.

The accumulator I have recommended is a 73.87/1 chance but if you go through it team by team it is hard to argue against the teams selected (Actually I think Chelsea will be harder pressed this year, but I think they will cross the line first again)

We will see how it goes but we know we are going to get a run for our money.

The rest of the investments will be a lot less speculative, and will be very focussed on single match betting, with the objective of winning €1,000 by the end of the season (lets say by May 30th next year)

To kick off this weekend:

€50 on Rangers to win v Dundee - you should be able to get 1.18 (Post commission) on the exchanges

and €50 on Fenerbache to win in Turkey at 1.25 with Sporting odds.com

To ensure the best prices possible I will be referring to a number of internet bookies some you may have heard some not, but on the whole will recommend the exhanges

Starting Bank: €1,000

Current bets: €50 long term season bets €100 match bets this weekend

Current bank €850

Chucky the tree

there's a gambling thread on the forum by the way. Might be worth a re-post there.

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

therecklessone

Chucky the tree wrote:

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

Plus Real will be a real (pardon the pun...:p ) threat this year.

Chucky the tree

yep, main reason. Barca are 8/15 while real are 15/8. Good enough vlaue for real i think.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

they are terrible if you back them single, and I agree with the other poster that Real will be a threat but then so will Liverpool Arsenal and others to Chelsea and so will Rangers to Celtic, you can make a case for and against any of them. There is always an option with these kind of acca bets to pick out say four or five bankers and do the combinations with other teams, but these are the teams I have picked and backed if they win - its a big win if one of them loses its not such a big deal.

Big Ears

i'd be worried Club Brugge would **** everything up . With that many leagues there's always the danger of things not going right but it's certainly a good bet .Would be well worth a fiver at least .

westtip

Big Ears wrote:

i'd be worried Club Brugge would **** everything up . With that many leagues there's always the danger of things not going right but it's certainly a good bet .Would be well worth a fiver at least .

Absolutely agree with you, Club Brugge could screw Anderlecht - that's why this one speculative investment is 75/1, if it cops it is a great bet, if it doesn't no great shakes. I landed a six timer last season on Celtic, Chelsea, Barcalona, Bayern, Gretna, and Juventus, it paid about 80/1 and TBH after Christmas I felt home and dry, and they were all easy to pick out at the start of the Season, and yes anyone of them could have failed The pity is I only had 20 quid on it - but 1600 profit is not to be sneezed at. I might yet look at one or two more acca bets before the season starts in full swing, because you can get great value now, by the end of September, if these favourites are showing true form you mght be lucky to get 33/1 about the bet you can now have at 75/1, As you say well worth a fiver for the potential payout of 375. I really don't mind if nobody does these bets, but I am just sharing what I am doing myself, I might end doing my complete orchestras, but hey thats life. I will take a look at paddy power and Ladbrokes tomorrow in case anyone wants to do a cash bet with their local office.

Atlas_IRL

nice thread, can you do spread beting on betfair? cant seem to be able to do it

stepbar

You have put a thought into my head, thats goin to be the next bet I place. I actually think you should try a bet without chelsea for the prem, Man u are 13/8 at the mo

westtip

Atlas_IRL wrote:

nice thread, can you do spread beting on betfair? cant seem to be able to do it

I am not sure, but give their helpdesk a call and ask them they are very responsive, thenumber is on the betfair website.

I am adding one more single bet selection for this weekend, it is being played this eveing. Brondby to bt Thorsen on August 5th in Danish SAS league the price has drifted a bit on betfair but anything above 1.25 is ok I will put it on my calculations at 1.26 (1.30 is currently on betfair).

Curent bank 800

50 outstanding long term bets

150 in bets this weekend outstanding.

westtip

westtip wrote:

I will take a look at paddy power and Ladbrokes tomorrow in case anyone wants to do a cash bet with their local office.

had a look at these two big boys for anyone wanting to do a cash acca - they actually aren't quoting on a number of teams Ladbrokes have no offers on Lyon, Anderlecht, Porto or Linfield An acca on Celtic, Chelsea, Gretna, Barca and Bayern with them will pay 10.03, a shade over 9/1.

With Paddy Power there are no offers yet on Anderlecht or Linfield. An acca on the following: Celtic, Chelski, Gretna, Lyon, Barca, Bayern and Porto will pay 32.71 (31.71/1), it looks like a nice bet, which will give you a run for your money and I woudln't ba at all surprised to see both the bets cop.

This infomration is for those who want to do a cash bet at their local office. The long term bets are as per those posted already

Seaneh

My football bet for this year.


Milan, Swansea, Real Madrid, Bayern, Chelsea, Lyon, Rangers, Juventus, Porto and Ajax all to win thier leagues, dunno the odds but i have a gut feeling.

Atlas_IRL

i wouldnt bet on milan, Inter will be right up there and will have a points advantage which imo Milan will find very hard to overtake

westtip

westtip wrote:

€50 on Rangers to win v Dundee - you should be able to get 1.18 (Post commission) on the exchanges

and €50 on Fenerbache to win in Turkey at 1.25 with Sporting odds.com

To ensure the best prices possible I will be referring to a number of internet bookies some you may have heard some not, but on the whole will recommend the exhanges

Starting Bank: €1,000

Current bets: €50 long term season bets €100 match bets this weekend

Current bank €850

Well Rangers despite reports they shoudl have won - failed miserably in their first home game of the season a loss of 50.

Fenerbache 1.25 and Brondby 1.26 (advised earlier today both won) giveing a profit of 25.5.

A total loss of 24.5 on the first series of bets.

Original Bank 1000

outstanding long term bets: 50

todays loss: -24.5

Bank going forward: 925.5

Long term bets (see first post) Gretna won easily and I confidently predict they will win Scottish one this year. The Rangers loss will result in Celtics price shortening.

GuanYin

Moved to Gambling

westtip

westtip wrote:

Long term bets (see first post) Gretna won easily and I confidently predict they will win Scottish one this year. The Rangers loss will result in Celtics price shortening.

until Celtic f***ked up yesterday.

westtip

I am adding one more long term bet to the pot, on Gretna 1.5, Lyon 1.25, Bayern 1.44 and Linfield 1.5 - skybet seem to be the only bookie offering odds on Linfield so far this year and I really cannot see them being headed in the NI league. All four of these selections really all should be absolute shoe ins and could form the basis of any number of multiple bets with other potential league winners in Europe. The combined odds are 4.05 (ie a little over 3/1). I recommend another 50 on this acca at this price, really as a cover bet on the other acca bets I have recommened, this brings the working bank for match bets in the season down to 875.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets, which will run the course of the season.

Raskolnikov

Essentially, you've just picked the teams that won their domestic league last year and now you're hoping that each of them will go on to win it again (for some teams, it'll be the third time). I think it really is a lot to ask for. . .

Chucky the tree

How come you havent stuck shels in there?

Atlas_IRL

what sites can you do league acc bets in, i might move my money around

westtip

Atlas_IRL wrote:

what sites can you do league acc bets in, i might move my money around

Most of the bookies allow accumulators on the league winners though not all price up all the leagues skybet.com have priced up justabout every league going at present in Europe. To check out comapritive prices and so who is offering what I find betbrain.com just about the most comprehensive.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

How come you havent stuck shels in there?

The irish premier league is pretty competitive this year so Shels just don't look as nailed on as the others I have selected.

westtip

Raskolnikov wrote:

Essentially, you've just picked the teams that won their domestic league last year and now you're hoping that each of them will go on to win it again (for some teams, it'll be the third time). I think it really is a lot to ask for. . .

Yes they won last year and they are very strong favs to win again this year, I believe they all have an excellent chance of repeating last years wins, I don't think it is a rocket science selection process and yes I may get tripped up by just one team, but hey that's punting for you.

westtip

There are three games which interest me in CL qualifiers tomorrow but not sure what prices can be achieved yet, so I am holding back until tomorrow before confirming any bets.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 875.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €150
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 24.5

westtip

Selection for August 8th. I wouldn't normally recommend an away win in the CL, but I think the price on Betdaq for Arsenal v Dynamo Zagreb is worth taking at a pre-commission price of 2.08 (anything down to 2.02 pre comms is worth taking) Arsenal to win. The post commission price is a shade over even money at 2.02, with the average across the bookies of around 1.80, this is good value. A stake of 50 euro is being put on the record for this thread. The Croatian league is unlikely to provide a CL group qualifier and Arsenal will want to take at least an away goal back to the home leg. comparing the leagues the two teams play is all you have to go on in these qualifier legs. The premiership has to be literally leagues ahead of the Croatian league and I think Arsenal could wrap this tie up tonight with an away win, they certainly will not want to take anything risky home, and at the price it is worth a go.

50 Euro Arsenal to beat Dynamo Zagreb at 2.08 pre-comms on betdaq.com

padraig_f

westtip wrote:

50 Euro Arsenal to beat Dynamo Zagreb at 2.08 pre-comms on betdaq.com

You do know more than half the Arsenal first team including Henry aren't playing, right?

westtip

I was aware there are a few first team ommissions inc Henry and perhaps on reflection it may not be a sound advice - but the bet has been posted and stands, there is no point running something like this if I allow myself to change my mind after posting a recommended bet anyway I still think Arsenal should win it, if not, such is life.

westtip

Well despite the concerns expressed Arsenal seem to have buried this tie tonight - so my feeling about the price on Betdaq was well justified. 50 at 2.02 (post comms price recommended), yields a 51 Euro profit

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 926.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €200
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 26.5

ecksor

Are you planning to continuously update this thread with reports of your bankroll growth?

westtip

ecksor wrote:

Are you planning to continuously update this thread with reports of your bankroll growth?

only after the results of a bet

ecksor

Well, that's what I mean. So, you'll detail each bet before you make it and then update with the results?