Football investments for 2006/7 season

westtip

As the magic of the season starts to kick in over Europe, we can all once again look forward to trying to make a few quid/euro from the beautiful game. So here is my challenge.

Imagine if you had a one thousand Euro bank (draw it down from those spare SSIA funds) and set yourself a challenge. Interest rates may be on the rise, but a thousand euro over nine months on deposit will still only make you about 4% if you really shop around. So how about aiming to double your money at the very least. Read this thread and watch how it can be done, or not...

To kick off we will have a few speculative long terms bets:

With Skybet.com I recommend the following accumulator on the teams to wi their respective league titles, all prices are in the decimal style (ie even money is 2.00, 2/5 is 1.4 etc)

Celtic @ 2.00, Chelsea @1.44, Gretna @ 1.73, Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Anderlecht @1.66, Porto @ 1.91, Linfield @ 1.5 and Barcalona @ 1.57. The cumulative odds on this bet are a very attractive 74.87.

I am going to recommend a stake of €25 at this price to collect €1871.75 - this truly will be the jackpot with winnings of €1846.75

Three of these teams are I believe nailed on bankers so I am recommending a treble on these three: Lyon @ 1.4, Bayern @1.44, Linfield @ 1.5 which pays 3.024 (equivalent to a little over 2/1). I recommend €12.5 on this - with the plan if it comes up the winnings will cover the speculative acca if that fails (of course the three bankers will have to come in!). A profit of €25.30 would be accrued.

I also recommend a similar treble on Anderlecht @ 1.66 Porto @1.91 and Celtic at 2.00 - odds of 6.34 (ie 5.34/1) a stake of €12.50 is recommended to give a profit of €66.96

In total these long term speculative bets will have cost us €50 to layout at the start of the season - and should give us the real chance of hitting the jackpot with the first bet.

Let me explain: Most leagues in Europe can be won by a max of three teams - in fact most are a match between the top two. Last year nearly all the favourites at the start of the season went on to win their domestic leagues. I have concentrated on the premier leagues in most countries - the fly in the ointment is Gretna - who have had millions invested in them by a fairy godfather who wants to get them into the SPL. They romped home two years ago in Scotish 3 and again in Scottish 2 last year - and last year they made their mark by getting to the SFA cup final - I fully expect them to beat all in front of them in Scottish 1 this year - znd to be in with the Scottish big boys next year.

The accumulator I have recommended is a 73.87/1 chance but if you go through it team by team it is hard to argue against the teams selected (Actually I think Chelsea will be harder pressed this year, but I think they will cross the line first again)

We will see how it goes but we know we are going to get a run for our money.

The rest of the investments will be a lot less speculative, and will be very focussed on single match betting, with the objective of winning €1,000 by the end of the season (lets say by May 30th next year)

To kick off this weekend:

€50 on Rangers to win v Dundee - you should be able to get 1.18 (Post commission) on the exchanges

and €50 on Fenerbache to win in Turkey at 1.25 with Sporting odds.com

To ensure the best prices possible I will be referring to a number of internet bookies some you may have heard some not, but on the whole will recommend the exhanges

Starting Bank: €1,000

Current bets: €50 long term season bets €100 match bets this weekend

Current bank €850

Chucky the tree

there's a gambling thread on the forum by the way. Might be worth a re-post there.

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

therecklessone

Chucky the tree wrote:

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

Plus Real will be a real (pardon the pun...:p ) threat this year.

Chucky the tree

yep, main reason. Barca are 8/15 while real are 15/8. Good enough vlaue for real i think.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

Also, i would take barcalona out of your mega accumalator. Odds are them are terrible.

they are terrible if you back them single, and I agree with the other poster that Real will be a threat but then so will Liverpool Arsenal and others to Chelsea and so will Rangers to Celtic, you can make a case for and against any of them. There is always an option with these kind of acca bets to pick out say four or five bankers and do the combinations with other teams, but these are the teams I have picked and backed if they win - its a big win if one of them loses its not such a big deal.

Big Ears

i'd be worried Club Brugge would **** everything up . With that many leagues there's always the danger of things not going right but it's certainly a good bet .Would be well worth a fiver at least .

westtip

Big Ears wrote:

i'd be worried Club Brugge would **** everything up . With that many leagues there's always the danger of things not going right but it's certainly a good bet .Would be well worth a fiver at least .

Absolutely agree with you, Club Brugge could screw Anderlecht - that's why this one speculative investment is 75/1, if it cops it is a great bet, if it doesn't no great shakes. I landed a six timer last season on Celtic, Chelsea, Barcalona, Bayern, Gretna, and Juventus, it paid about 80/1 and TBH after Christmas I felt home and dry, and they were all easy to pick out at the start of the Season, and yes anyone of them could have failed The pity is I only had 20 quid on it - but 1600 profit is not to be sneezed at. I might yet look at one or two more acca bets before the season starts in full swing, because you can get great value now, by the end of September, if these favourites are showing true form you mght be lucky to get 33/1 about the bet you can now have at 75/1, As you say well worth a fiver for the potential payout of 375. I really don't mind if nobody does these bets, but I am just sharing what I am doing myself, I might end doing my complete orchestras, but hey thats life. I will take a look at paddy power and Ladbrokes tomorrow in case anyone wants to do a cash bet with their local office.

Atlas_IRL

nice thread, can you do spread beting on betfair? cant seem to be able to do it

stepbar

You have put a thought into my head, thats goin to be the next bet I place. I actually think you should try a bet without chelsea for the prem, Man u are 13/8 at the mo

westtip

Atlas_IRL wrote:

nice thread, can you do spread beting on betfair? cant seem to be able to do it

I am not sure, but give their helpdesk a call and ask them they are very responsive, thenumber is on the betfair website.

I am adding one more single bet selection for this weekend, it is being played this eveing. Brondby to bt Thorsen on August 5th in Danish SAS league the price has drifted a bit on betfair but anything above 1.25 is ok I will put it on my calculations at 1.26 (1.30 is currently on betfair).

Curent bank 800

50 outstanding long term bets

150 in bets this weekend outstanding.

westtip

westtip wrote:

I will take a look at paddy power and Ladbrokes tomorrow in case anyone wants to do a cash bet with their local office.

had a look at these two big boys for anyone wanting to do a cash acca - they actually aren't quoting on a number of teams Ladbrokes have no offers on Lyon, Anderlecht, Porto or Linfield An acca on Celtic, Chelsea, Gretna, Barca and Bayern with them will pay 10.03, a shade over 9/1.

With Paddy Power there are no offers yet on Anderlecht or Linfield. An acca on the following: Celtic, Chelski, Gretna, Lyon, Barca, Bayern and Porto will pay 32.71 (31.71/1), it looks like a nice bet, which will give you a run for your money and I woudln't ba at all surprised to see both the bets cop.

This infomration is for those who want to do a cash bet at their local office. The long term bets are as per those posted already

Seaneh

My football bet for this year.


Milan, Swansea, Real Madrid, Bayern, Chelsea, Lyon, Rangers, Juventus, Porto and Ajax all to win thier leagues, dunno the odds but i have a gut feeling.

Atlas_IRL

i wouldnt bet on milan, Inter will be right up there and will have a points advantage which imo Milan will find very hard to overtake

westtip

westtip wrote:

€50 on Rangers to win v Dundee - you should be able to get 1.18 (Post commission) on the exchanges

and €50 on Fenerbache to win in Turkey at 1.25 with Sporting odds.com

To ensure the best prices possible I will be referring to a number of internet bookies some you may have heard some not, but on the whole will recommend the exhanges

Starting Bank: €1,000

Current bets: €50 long term season bets €100 match bets this weekend

Current bank €850

Well Rangers despite reports they shoudl have won - failed miserably in their first home game of the season a loss of 50.

Fenerbache 1.25 and Brondby 1.26 (advised earlier today both won) giveing a profit of 25.5.

A total loss of 24.5 on the first series of bets.

Original Bank 1000

outstanding long term bets: 50

todays loss: -24.5

Bank going forward: 925.5

Long term bets (see first post) Gretna won easily and I confidently predict they will win Scottish one this year. The Rangers loss will result in Celtics price shortening.

GuanYin

Moved to Gambling

westtip

westtip wrote:

Long term bets (see first post) Gretna won easily and I confidently predict they will win Scottish one this year. The Rangers loss will result in Celtics price shortening.

until Celtic f***ked up yesterday.

westtip

I am adding one more long term bet to the pot, on Gretna 1.5, Lyon 1.25, Bayern 1.44 and Linfield 1.5 - skybet seem to be the only bookie offering odds on Linfield so far this year and I really cannot see them being headed in the NI league. All four of these selections really all should be absolute shoe ins and could form the basis of any number of multiple bets with other potential league winners in Europe. The combined odds are 4.05 (ie a little over 3/1). I recommend another 50 on this acca at this price, really as a cover bet on the other acca bets I have recommened, this brings the working bank for match bets in the season down to 875.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets, which will run the course of the season.

Raskolnikov

Essentially, you've just picked the teams that won their domestic league last year and now you're hoping that each of them will go on to win it again (for some teams, it'll be the third time). I think it really is a lot to ask for. . .

Chucky the tree

How come you havent stuck shels in there?

Atlas_IRL

what sites can you do league acc bets in, i might move my money around

westtip

Atlas_IRL wrote:

what sites can you do league acc bets in, i might move my money around

Most of the bookies allow accumulators on the league winners though not all price up all the leagues skybet.com have priced up justabout every league going at present in Europe. To check out comapritive prices and so who is offering what I find betbrain.com just about the most comprehensive.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

How come you havent stuck shels in there?

The irish premier league is pretty competitive this year so Shels just don't look as nailed on as the others I have selected.

westtip

Raskolnikov wrote:

Essentially, you've just picked the teams that won their domestic league last year and now you're hoping that each of them will go on to win it again (for some teams, it'll be the third time). I think it really is a lot to ask for. . .

Yes they won last year and they are very strong favs to win again this year, I believe they all have an excellent chance of repeating last years wins, I don't think it is a rocket science selection process and yes I may get tripped up by just one team, but hey that's punting for you.

westtip

There are three games which interest me in CL qualifiers tomorrow but not sure what prices can be achieved yet, so I am holding back until tomorrow before confirming any bets.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 875.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €150
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Loss of 24.5

westtip

Selection for August 8th. I wouldn't normally recommend an away win in the CL, but I think the price on Betdaq for Arsenal v Dynamo Zagreb is worth taking at a pre-commission price of 2.08 (anything down to 2.02 pre comms is worth taking) Arsenal to win. The post commission price is a shade over even money at 2.02, with the average across the bookies of around 1.80, this is good value. A stake of 50 euro is being put on the record for this thread. The Croatian league is unlikely to provide a CL group qualifier and Arsenal will want to take at least an away goal back to the home leg. comparing the leagues the two teams play is all you have to go on in these qualifier legs. The premiership has to be literally leagues ahead of the Croatian league and I think Arsenal could wrap this tie up tonight with an away win, they certainly will not want to take anything risky home, and at the price it is worth a go.

50 Euro Arsenal to beat Dynamo Zagreb at 2.08 pre-comms on betdaq.com

padraig_f

westtip wrote:

50 Euro Arsenal to beat Dynamo Zagreb at 2.08 pre-comms on betdaq.com

You do know more than half the Arsenal first team including Henry aren't playing, right?

westtip

I was aware there are a few first team ommissions inc Henry and perhaps on reflection it may not be a sound advice - but the bet has been posted and stands, there is no point running something like this if I allow myself to change my mind after posting a recommended bet anyway I still think Arsenal should win it, if not, such is life.

westtip

Well despite the concerns expressed Arsenal seem to have buried this tie tonight - so my feeling about the price on Betdaq was well justified. 50 at 2.02 (post comms price recommended), yields a 51 Euro profit

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 926.5 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €200
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 26.5

ecksor

Are you planning to continuously update this thread with reports of your bankroll growth?

westtip

ecksor wrote:

Are you planning to continuously update this thread with reports of your bankroll growth?

only after the results of a bet

ecksor

Well, that's what I mean. So, you'll detail each bet before you make it and then update with the results?

westtip

ecksor wrote:

Well, that's what I mean. So, you'll detail each bet before you make it and then update with the results?

That's the general drift, this is a gambling forum isn't it?

ecksor

It is, although I believe you originally posted this on the Soccer forum so I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Anyway, I was just looking for clarification.

westtip

ecksor wrote:

It is, although I believe you originally posted this on the Soccer forum so I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Anyway, I was just looking for clarification.

That's OK, I wasn't aware of this forum when originally posted

westtip

westtip wrote:

There are three games which interest me in CL qualifiers tomorrow but not sure what prices can be achieved yet, so I am holding back until tomorrow before confirming any bets.

All prices are betfair quoted pre commission

Liverpool @1.18, Lille @ 1.23 and AC Milan 1.22 50 Euro to win on each at these prices or better if you can.

westtip

With Lille and AC Milan in the bag, Liverpool put me through the hoop there, but glad to see that second go in despite another scare a few minutes later in the Livepool box. Profit after commission on Betfair comes to 30.10 Euro. current situation:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 956.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €350
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 56.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 16.17%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+1.13 points Turnover 7 points POT 16.17%

westtip

There are three matches which interest me in the UEFA cup tonight:

Two for the time being and maybe the third later on today depending on price available

Hertha Berlin to win @ 1.14 with Paddy Power (Betfair only have 1.13 pre-comms available and the price has shortened in the last day or so) and Basel to win @ 1.22 also with Paddy power (Betfair not much at 1.23 - but this would be as good), the price has shortened on this match during the week as well. For the account: both single win bets at 50 Euro.

Just adding a selection for this weekend - Celtic to beat St Mirren there is a bit of 1.21 on Betfair - take it if you can or take the 1.20 with Totesport, €50 to win.

Raskolnikov

Some teams seem to be getting awfully short prices for tonights UEFA Cup matches. I might look into laying a smattering of sub 1.5 prices . . .

westtip

Raskolnikov wrote:

Some teams seem to be getting awfully short prices for tonights UEFA Cup matches. I might look into laying a smattering of sub 1.5 prices . . .

which ones where you thinking of. I must admit although I have put a couple of bets up in this area today and I have one more to come - they are difficult matches to guage - largely due to the problem of comparing teams in one league with teams in another, however the better leagues representatives do generally overcome their opposition - although Liverpool only just did it last night. I will be happier when the main European leagues are up and running a few weeks and bets can be placed with some confidence based on recent form. In the meantime I am trying my best to find what I can within the UEFA competitions.

By the way may as well put it up now: My final UEFA game bet for tongiht is Odense (OB) to beat Llannelli, 1.23 has been available on Betfair today, but seems to have all gone best bookie price now is 1.20 with Willhill and Sporting odds so it will go down on the account at this price. 50 to win @ 1.20

Bateman

Think I will lay Drogheda, nothing else really jumping out at me.

westtip

Three excellent 1-0 wins for Hertha Berlin (@1.14) , Odense (@ 1.20) and Basel @1.22 all at 50 per bet yielded a profit of 28 euro.

Next bet to come Celtic v St Mirren advised earlier on today @1.20

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 984.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €500
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 84.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 16.92%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+1.69 points Turnover 10 points POT 16.92%

Chucky the tree

Very lucky on Heartha Berlin. 1/12 on pp. I would say alot of people were ****ting themselves.

Collie D

At those odds think I'll get stuck in myself, lot of people knocking this thread but what's a fiver or a tenner if it pays nearly eighty to one. This accum has got to be a safer bet than an eighty to one horse IMO. Linfield, Gretna and Bayern must be as close to sure things as you can get, no competiiton in those leagues, even in the Premiership with United, Liverpool and Arsenal chasing still can't see beyond the Roman Army. A speculative punt on the others is no harm. I'm with you on this one Westtip, don't supose you've found anywhere that you can back all these leagues with? No account so looking for a cash over the counter affiar if you know of any.

Chucky the tree

paddypower should take it. cant think why they wouldnt.

westtip

Collie D wrote:

At those odds think I'll get stuck in myself, lot of people knocking this thread but what's a fiver or a tenner if it pays nearly eighty to one. This accum has got to be a safer bet than an eighty to one horse IMO. Linfield, Gretna and Bayern must be as close to sure things as you can get, no competiiton in those leagues, even in the Premiership with United, Liverpool and Arsenal chasing still can't see beyond the Roman Army. A speculative punt on the others is no harm. I'm with you on this one Westtip, don't supose you've found anywhere that you can back all these leagues with? No account so looking for a cash over the counter affiar if you know of any.

Thanks for the comments, aside from the slow drip drip method I take backing teams in singles through the season I really do believe these accas on the final outcome of the leagues are good betting opportunities to land a nice pay day in May and they do give a great interest through the season. Apart from going for the big win with the acca of 8 or 9 teams (I landed one last season), I would also suggest doing a few smaller combinations - effectively to try and pay for the bets. One thing I wouldn't do is a massive combo bet like a Heinz or Goliath. The number of staking units needed are just too great and it dilutes your chance for a big win, if you want to go this route always make sure you have a little extra on the roll up acca part of the bet. I may be tempted to do say 8 selections and any 7 from 8. Although I think the better strategy if you want to do multiple combos is to pick 3 or 4 teams as your banker combo and combine these in a multiple with other teams: For example have 3 or 4 teams as your bankers and say four other teams as your second string probables add do five lines in your bet

the 3 or 4 bankers plus the combination of the other teams in trebles (seven teams per line) 4 units staked
the four bankers plus the four teams in one acca - one unit staked

A total of 5 units. Of course your four bankers have to come in, but you always know that.

Re do a cash bet. I really don't know, I very rarely go in a bookies these days, they don't even seem like bookies now with virtual racing and no smell of smoke and coffee vending machines. I know the only internet bookie I have found to date pricing up the NI league is Skybet.com, not sure if they accept irish banking cards, I think they accept credit cards - but that is a dangerous game to get into, I bet in sterling with them, but I am sure the irish high street operators will be pricing up this league: Sean Graham, PP, Ladbrokes, Celtic, Boyle, I think you will have to shop around and just ask at the counter on the leagues you want to bet on or give their telebetting lines a call.

By the way I was very confident about Gretna winning Scot 1 but last nights result against Derry was a bit of a warning, they may not have it as much their own way this year as many of us have imagined, but too late now they are included in most of my acca bets.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

Very lucky on Heartha Berlin. 1/12 on pp. I would say alot of people were ****ting themselves.

Chucky luck has a habit of evening out as you probably know. I have many recollections of teams being 1 up with five to play and conceding stupidly, equally I also have many examples of seeing the teams I have backed grab it in the last five (Liverpool the other evening a typical example). There will be cases of both throughout the season, something we all have to live with.

Chucky the tree

Its certainly does. And we all know how good a feeling it is when one of your picks score a last mintue goal to save your bet.

All know the opposite side of that aswell though

What makes gambling so much fun though!

westtip

One more single match bet for saturday august 12th - in Swedish Allsvenskan, Hammerby the league leaders to beat bottom of the table Orgryte. 1.5 was available earlier in the day with Bet365 but this has been cut to 1.44 (4/9) is also with Eurobet, bet365 and a shade over this at 1.47 (pre comms) with betfair. Top v bottom seems a good price and Orgyte havn't won all season (thye have a summer season in Sweden, for cash betters only PP do have this at 1.4 (2/5) I think it is worth includng in any weekend accas if you do that sort of thing. A single bet for the account at 50 euro to win along with the 50 euro to win on Celtic at 1.20

westtip

Hammerby managed to lose for the first time this season, to team at the bottom of the league who hadn't won in 14 games. It makes you wonder. Celtic won comfortably (advised @1.20), good news as a single bet and for the seasonal acca bets - also note Bayern opened their campaign with a 2-0 win last night.

Loss on the day -40 euro
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 944.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €600
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 44.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 7.43%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+.89 points Turnover 12 points POT 7.43%

westtip

Before prices shorten up anymore I am putting in one more long term acca for the end of the season, and because Ladbrokes have come into the fray to price up Linfield (same as Skybet at 1.5) but for those cash bettors only go to Ladbrokes for this: Gretna, (1.53) Bayern (1.5), Olympicas (1.55), Celtic (1.72), Barcelona (1.5), and Linfield (1.50) it pays 13.76 (ie 12.76/1), I am recommending a 25 euro acca from the bank to pay 344.17 if it comes off. I intend doing a review of all the long term bets at the end of each month to see where we stand.

westtip

First match bet on the premiership this year and advised early in hte week to take the price. 50 euro to win on Chelsea v Man City at 1.25 on Mansion.com (commission free) or hold out for 1.26 on Betfair. the average price for Chelsea is about 1.20, so 1.25 represents good value, and I think they will win this opener. I am also adding my favourite team, Gretna to win at home this weekend against Ross county, 1.40 is available with one or two firms (totalbet and Coral), I think this price is well worth taking, despite the drubbing received from Derry, I fully expect Gretna to get off to a real flyer in Scot 1. 50 euro to win at 1.40 or if it can be bettered on the exchgs take it. Three more single match bets for the weekend all €50 single win bets: Fenerbache v Rizesport @ 1.2 with ladbrokes, Club Brugge v Beveren at 1.27 (post commission on either Betfair or Betdaq) if not take 1.25 with some of the major bookies Ajax v Waalwijk 1.30 with Corals (Eurobet). That should just about do it for this weekend, a total of 250 turnover, lets see what comes from it.