Football investments for 2006/7 season

westtip

ecksor wrote:

Well, that's what I mean. So, you'll detail each bet before you make it and then update with the results?

That's the general drift, this is a gambling forum isn't it?

ecksor

It is, although I believe you originally posted this on the Soccer forum so I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Anyway, I was just looking for clarification.

westtip

ecksor wrote:

It is, although I believe you originally posted this on the Soccer forum so I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Anyway, I was just looking for clarification.

That's OK, I wasn't aware of this forum when originally posted

westtip

westtip wrote:

There are three games which interest me in CL qualifiers tomorrow but not sure what prices can be achieved yet, so I am holding back until tomorrow before confirming any bets.

All prices are betfair quoted pre commission

Liverpool @1.18, Lille @ 1.23 and AC Milan 1.22 50 Euro to win on each at these prices or better if you can.

westtip

With Lille and AC Milan in the bag, Liverpool put me through the hoop there, but glad to see that second go in despite another scare a few minutes later in the Livepool box. Profit after commission on Betfair comes to 30.10 Euro. current situation:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 956.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €350
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 56.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 16.17%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+1.13 points Turnover 7 points POT 16.17%

westtip

There are three matches which interest me in the UEFA cup tonight:

Two for the time being and maybe the third later on today depending on price available

Hertha Berlin to win @ 1.14 with Paddy Power (Betfair only have 1.13 pre-comms available and the price has shortened in the last day or so) and Basel to win @ 1.22 also with Paddy power (Betfair not much at 1.23 - but this would be as good), the price has shortened on this match during the week as well. For the account: both single win bets at 50 Euro.

Just adding a selection for this weekend - Celtic to beat St Mirren there is a bit of 1.21 on Betfair - take it if you can or take the 1.20 with Totesport, €50 to win.

Raskolnikov

Some teams seem to be getting awfully short prices for tonights UEFA Cup matches. I might look into laying a smattering of sub 1.5 prices . . .

westtip

Raskolnikov wrote:

Some teams seem to be getting awfully short prices for tonights UEFA Cup matches. I might look into laying a smattering of sub 1.5 prices . . .

which ones where you thinking of. I must admit although I have put a couple of bets up in this area today and I have one more to come - they are difficult matches to guage - largely due to the problem of comparing teams in one league with teams in another, however the better leagues representatives do generally overcome their opposition - although Liverpool only just did it last night. I will be happier when the main European leagues are up and running a few weeks and bets can be placed with some confidence based on recent form. In the meantime I am trying my best to find what I can within the UEFA competitions.

By the way may as well put it up now: My final UEFA game bet for tongiht is Odense (OB) to beat Llannelli, 1.23 has been available on Betfair today, but seems to have all gone best bookie price now is 1.20 with Willhill and Sporting odds so it will go down on the account at this price. 50 to win @ 1.20

Bateman

Think I will lay Drogheda, nothing else really jumping out at me.

westtip

Three excellent 1-0 wins for Hertha Berlin (@1.14) , Odense (@ 1.20) and Basel @1.22 all at 50 per bet yielded a profit of 28 euro.

Next bet to come Celtic v St Mirren advised earlier on today @1.20

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 984.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €500
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 84.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 16.92%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+1.69 points Turnover 10 points POT 16.92%

Chucky the tree

Very lucky on Heartha Berlin. 1/12 on pp. I would say alot of people were ****ting themselves.

Collie D

At those odds think I'll get stuck in myself, lot of people knocking this thread but what's a fiver or a tenner if it pays nearly eighty to one. This accum has got to be a safer bet than an eighty to one horse IMO. Linfield, Gretna and Bayern must be as close to sure things as you can get, no competiiton in those leagues, even in the Premiership with United, Liverpool and Arsenal chasing still can't see beyond the Roman Army. A speculative punt on the others is no harm. I'm with you on this one Westtip, don't supose you've found anywhere that you can back all these leagues with? No account so looking for a cash over the counter affiar if you know of any.

Chucky the tree

paddypower should take it. cant think why they wouldnt.

westtip

Collie D wrote:

At those odds think I'll get stuck in myself, lot of people knocking this thread but what's a fiver or a tenner if it pays nearly eighty to one. This accum has got to be a safer bet than an eighty to one horse IMO. Linfield, Gretna and Bayern must be as close to sure things as you can get, no competiiton in those leagues, even in the Premiership with United, Liverpool and Arsenal chasing still can't see beyond the Roman Army. A speculative punt on the others is no harm. I'm with you on this one Westtip, don't supose you've found anywhere that you can back all these leagues with? No account so looking for a cash over the counter affiar if you know of any.

Thanks for the comments, aside from the slow drip drip method I take backing teams in singles through the season I really do believe these accas on the final outcome of the leagues are good betting opportunities to land a nice pay day in May and they do give a great interest through the season. Apart from going for the big win with the acca of 8 or 9 teams (I landed one last season), I would also suggest doing a few smaller combinations - effectively to try and pay for the bets. One thing I wouldn't do is a massive combo bet like a Heinz or Goliath. The number of staking units needed are just too great and it dilutes your chance for a big win, if you want to go this route always make sure you have a little extra on the roll up acca part of the bet. I may be tempted to do say 8 selections and any 7 from 8. Although I think the better strategy if you want to do multiple combos is to pick 3 or 4 teams as your banker combo and combine these in a multiple with other teams: For example have 3 or 4 teams as your bankers and say four other teams as your second string probables add do five lines in your bet

the 3 or 4 bankers plus the combination of the other teams in trebles (seven teams per line) 4 units staked
the four bankers plus the four teams in one acca - one unit staked

A total of 5 units. Of course your four bankers have to come in, but you always know that.

Re do a cash bet. I really don't know, I very rarely go in a bookies these days, they don't even seem like bookies now with virtual racing and no smell of smoke and coffee vending machines. I know the only internet bookie I have found to date pricing up the NI league is Skybet.com, not sure if they accept irish banking cards, I think they accept credit cards - but that is a dangerous game to get into, I bet in sterling with them, but I am sure the irish high street operators will be pricing up this league: Sean Graham, PP, Ladbrokes, Celtic, Boyle, I think you will have to shop around and just ask at the counter on the leagues you want to bet on or give their telebetting lines a call.

By the way I was very confident about Gretna winning Scot 1 but last nights result against Derry was a bit of a warning, they may not have it as much their own way this year as many of us have imagined, but too late now they are included in most of my acca bets.

westtip

Chucky the tree wrote:

Very lucky on Heartha Berlin. 1/12 on pp. I would say alot of people were ****ting themselves.

Chucky luck has a habit of evening out as you probably know. I have many recollections of teams being 1 up with five to play and conceding stupidly, equally I also have many examples of seeing the teams I have backed grab it in the last five (Liverpool the other evening a typical example). There will be cases of both throughout the season, something we all have to live with.

Chucky the tree

Its certainly does. And we all know how good a feeling it is when one of your picks score a last mintue goal to save your bet.

All know the opposite side of that aswell though

What makes gambling so much fun though!

westtip

One more single match bet for saturday august 12th - in Swedish Allsvenskan, Hammerby the league leaders to beat bottom of the table Orgryte. 1.5 was available earlier in the day with Bet365 but this has been cut to 1.44 (4/9) is also with Eurobet, bet365 and a shade over this at 1.47 (pre comms) with betfair. Top v bottom seems a good price and Orgyte havn't won all season (thye have a summer season in Sweden, for cash betters only PP do have this at 1.4 (2/5) I think it is worth includng in any weekend accas if you do that sort of thing. A single bet for the account at 50 euro to win along with the 50 euro to win on Celtic at 1.20

westtip

Hammerby managed to lose for the first time this season, to team at the bottom of the league who hadn't won in 14 games. It makes you wonder. Celtic won comfortably (advised @1.20), good news as a single bet and for the seasonal acca bets - also note Bayern opened their campaign with a 2-0 win last night.

Loss on the day -40 euro
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 944.60 with 100 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €600
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 44.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 7.43%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+.89 points Turnover 12 points POT 7.43%

westtip

Before prices shorten up anymore I am putting in one more long term acca for the end of the season, and because Ladbrokes have come into the fray to price up Linfield (same as Skybet at 1.5) but for those cash bettors only go to Ladbrokes for this: Gretna, (1.53) Bayern (1.5), Olympicas (1.55), Celtic (1.72), Barcelona (1.5), and Linfield (1.50) it pays 13.76 (ie 12.76/1), I am recommending a 25 euro acca from the bank to pay 344.17 if it comes off. I intend doing a review of all the long term bets at the end of each month to see where we stand.

westtip

First match bet on the premiership this year and advised early in hte week to take the price. 50 euro to win on Chelsea v Man City at 1.25 on Mansion.com (commission free) or hold out for 1.26 on Betfair. the average price for Chelsea is about 1.20, so 1.25 represents good value, and I think they will win this opener. I am also adding my favourite team, Gretna to win at home this weekend against Ross county, 1.40 is available with one or two firms (totalbet and Coral), I think this price is well worth taking, despite the drubbing received from Derry, I fully expect Gretna to get off to a real flyer in Scot 1. 50 euro to win at 1.40 or if it can be bettered on the exchgs take it. Three more single match bets for the weekend all €50 single win bets: Fenerbache v Rizesport @ 1.2 with ladbrokes, Club Brugge v Beveren at 1.27 (post commission on either Betfair or Betdaq) if not take 1.25 with some of the major bookies Ajax v Waalwijk 1.30 with Corals (Eurobet). That should just about do it for this weekend, a total of 250 turnover, lets see what comes from it.

westtip

Quick review of the financial situation before this weekend and to take acount of bets advised this week including the one more seasonal acca bet

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current bank 919.60 with 125 euro tied up in long term bets. Long term objective bank to increase from €1000 to €2000 by end of May 2007

€250 commited to single match bets this weekend on: Gretna, Chelsea, Fenerbache, Club Brugge and Ajax

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €600
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 44.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 7.43%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+.89 points Turnover 12 points POT 7.43%

westtip

So far so good: Gretna, Fenerbache, Club Brugge in the bag lets see how things go this afternoon....rather nicely, Ajax and Chelsea both obliging.

westtip

westtip wrote:

50 euro to win on Chelsea v Man City at 1.25 on Mansion.com (commission free) or hold out for 1.26 on Betfair. Gretna to win 1.40 is available with one or two firms (totalbet and Coral), Fenerbache v Rizesport @ 1.2 with ladbrokes, Club Brugge v Beveren at 1.27 (post commission on either Betfair or Betdaq) if not take 1.25 with some of the major bookies Ajax v Waalwijk 1.30 with Corals (Eurobet).

total profit: 71 euro.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €850
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 115.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 13.6%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ 2.31 points Turnover 17 points POT 13.6%

New Bank 990.6 with 125 committed to long term season bets.

westtip

despite the fact they don't need to win and a 2-0 loss woudl still get them through, I think Arsenal at 1.23 (Betfair) - 1.22 post coms is worth a bet for tomorrow night v NK Dinamo. The Arsenal are now match competitive and will want to notch up the first win at the new stadium asap, they won the away leg in a canter and are not the kind of team to sit back and say we will accept a draw or a small loss. 50 Euro to win at 1.22 - post comms on betfair.

Raskolnikov

What price are pool at tonight?

Bateman

Raskolnikov wrote:

What price are pool at tonight?

Liverpool are best priced 8-15 on the high street, not sure about the exchanges. I wouldn't be a backer at those prices. I might have a dip on the overs, but I would be looking primarily at the Premiership / League Cup tonight.

westtip

westtip wrote:

despite the fact they don't need to win and a 2-0 loss woudl still get them through, I think Arsenal at 1.23 (Betfair) - 1.22 post coms is worth a bet for tomorrow night v NK Dinamo. The Arsenal are now match competitive and will want to notch up the first win at the new stadium asap, they won the away leg in a canter and are not the kind of team to sit back and say we will accept a draw or a small loss. 50 Euro to win at 1.22 - post comms on betfair.

Arsenal have shortened up - and now 1.20 is the best price available on them, a bit of an iffy price if not yet backed. I think we might see new premiership leaders tonight, got a feeling without Rooney, MUFC may well get pegged back to a draw at Charlton, although not betting in that match; but I do believe Chelski will land the odds at Middlesbro despite this being the scene of one of their losses last season. I think Chelski have hit the ground running, and we could see an impressive opening five or six games from this team. At 1.53 on Betfair its a price worth taking, 50 euro to win at this price which is about 1.50 post comms.

westtip

Well maybe the chelski bubble has burst - I couldn't have called that game and the Manu game more wrong if I tried and Arsenal only came in with a 90th minute winner to put some saving on the evening. A total loss on the two bets advised of 40 Euro. Re the long term bets have to say maybe Chelski is now a bit of a worry but it is very early days and sure they will be in the hunt to the end of the season.

total loss: -40 euro.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €950
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 75.6
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 7.9%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ 1.51 points Turnover 19 points POT 7.9%

New Bank 950.6 with 125 committed to long term season bets.

westtip

There are a rake of opportunities tonight I am going for five games all pretty tight prices but I see no reason why all five shouldn't come off - apart from fate, luck and the other teams scoring the same as or more goals than my selections, All prices are betfair post commission and should be obtainable:

Rapid Bucharest @1.22, Auxerre @ 1.24, Brondby @ 1.17, Kayserispor @ 1.22 and Slavia Prague @ 1.14. I don't think the acca is worth doing and I am not a great fan of match accumulator bets. Anyone of these could trip which would mean a small loss on the night, but they are all fairly confident selections for one reason or another, but then so was Chelski last night!

We will see how they go, it would be nice to get the bank back to €1000 with all the seasonal acca bets paid for, when I will probably raise the point value of each single bet to €75, but for anyone following this thread, I am happy to achieve between 5 and 10% on turnover across the season on single match bets, this is what I have achieved on my own book for the last five years, at the end of August when the domestic season across Europe has really kicked in to play, the turnover should be around 10 single match bets a week 40 bets a month over the next eight months is 320 bets, even at 5% on turnover that is 16 points (800 Euro at current betting stakes of €50).

The whole point of this thread is a drip drip drip of steady profits, with hopefully one or two speculative long term bets landing as cream on the cake at the end of the season, We shall see.

westtip

westtip wrote:

Rapid Bucharest @1.22, Auxerre @ 1.24, Brondby @ 1.17, Kayserispor @ 1.22 and Slavia Prague @ 1.14. I don't think the acca is worth doing .

Slavia Prague the shortest price lets me down 0-0 - making it a losss of 7.5 euro on the night. Bloody annoying but confirms my view of single match betting versus wrapping this number of selections in an acca - which would have meant a total loss. I will update the bank tomorro.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Current turnover excluding long term bets: €1200
Current p/l excluding long term bets: Profit of 68.1
Profit on Turnover ex long term bets: 5.7%
Level stakes on a 1 point per bet basis (exc long term bets)
+ 1.36 points Turnover 24 points POT 5.7%

New Bank 943.10 with 125 committed to long term season bets.