Housing bubble starting to pop?

Sonnenblumen

This thread got to be one of the dullest around and certainly one of the least value! Property navel gazing? Sorry I'm out.

SimpleSam06

Sonnenblumen wrote:

This thread got to be one of the dullest around and certainly one of the least value! Property navel gazing? Sorry I'm out.

Don't let the door hit you on the arse. Next up, the Sunday Indo headlines, Dublin Property prices fall by up to 20%.

Sonnenblumen

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Don't let the door hit you on the arse. Next up, the Sunday Indo headlines, Dublin Property prices fall by up to 20%.

How are you after your head injury?

As soon as I get your damn bike out of the way, I'll be off, and by the way please remove all the Simple Sam Economics Greatest Hits clutter!

faceman

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Don't let the door hit you on the arse. Next up, the Sunday Indo headlines, Dublin Property prices fall by up to 20%.

the indo at it once again...

upon reading the article further you will discover that its there comments come from limited sources and relate solely to high value properties. It headline does not reflect reality. The headline is a deduction of their own, not of reality.

my friend sold his house (well sale agreed) in swords last week. Went up for 475k and sold at 532k. hmmmm, no 20% drop there.

SimpleSam06

Sonnenblumen wrote:

How are you after your head injury?

As soon as I get your damn bike out of the way, I'll be off, and by the way please remove all the Simple Sam Economics Greatest Hits clutter!

What? You are making zee no sense. I thought you were off anyway?

SimpleSam06

faceman wrote:

the indo at it once again...

upon reading the article further you will discover that its there comments come from limited sources and relate solely to high value properties. It headline does not reflect reality. The headline is a deduction of their own, not of reality.

my friend sold his house (well sale agreed) in swords last week. Went up for 475k and sold at 532k. hmmmm, no 20% drop there.

Oh I read it alright, and its not all 20% across the board, either, its up to 20%. Some places are only 15% or 10%. However I'll weigh the Sunday Independant against your anecdotes, and give to each their measure of respect. In any case its large and glaring headlines like this that make the shifty shuffle towards the door into a full blown lemming stampede. Market sentiment comprises a huge portion of the housing bubble, and this is like a domino effect. What you're seeing here is the first domino falling over in public view.

shaptakster

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Oh I read it alright, and its not all 20% across the board, either, its up to 20%. Some places are only 15% or 10%. However I'll weigh the Sunday Independant against your anecdotes, and give to each their measure of respect. In any case its large and glaring headlines like this that make the shifty shuffle towards the door into a full blown lemming stampede. Market sentiment comprises a huge portion of the housing bubble, and this is like a domino effect. What you're seeing here is the first domino falling over in public view.

lol.
Some people in here are trying really hard to paint a dire picture of the property market. So obviously hard that i'm embarressed for them.
Can you do a post count of how many times certain people posted in this thread? That would show a lot.

I dont think its working at all though. Prices are still going up in anything i'm looking at.
But keep trying will you Maybe you'll save us all a few quid.

I think the best option is to go out and burn down about 500 large companies.
Only massive job losses will hurt the property market. But dont burn down my company if you dont mind.

SimpleSam06

shaptakster wrote:

lol.
Some people in here are trying really hard to paint a dire picture of the property market. So obviously hard that i'm embarressed for them.
Can you do a post count of how many times certain people posted in this thread? That would show a lot.

I dont think its working at all though. Prices are still going up in anything i'm looking at.
But keep trying will you Maybe you'll save us all a few quid.

You'll no doubt be thrilled to give us all a few facts and links to back up your point of view, here. I mean, anything, really. You can be the first bull in the thread to do so. It will make you special! More so, I mean.

shaptakster wrote:

I think the best option is to go out and burn down about 500 large companies.
Only massive job losses will hurt the property market. But dont burn down my company if you dont mind.

Are you advocating arson here, or just trolling?

Pa ElGrande

shaptakster wrote:

lol.
Some people in here are trying really hard to paint a dire picture of the property market. So obviously hard that i'm embarressed for them.
Can you do a post count of how many times certain people posted in this thread? That would show a lot.

I dont think its working at all though. Prices are still going up in anything i'm looking at.
But keep trying will you Maybe you'll save us all a few quid.

I think the best option is to go out and burn down about 500 large companies.
Only massive job losses will hurt the property market. But dont burn down my company if you dont mind.

A very similar event brought down a number of Asian economies in 1997.
Rampant specualation led the papers to label them "Asian Tigers", however as many people know simply flooding your economy with money doesn't create real economic wealth.
Eventually every man and dog was going to get rich by borrowing themselves to a wonder of wealth.

Unfortunately this boom had a nasty side-effect, it starved the real economy of much-needed capital. As usual interest rates had to rise, asset prices fell and risk premiums shot up.

The whole "miracle" came crashing down, sinking a number of currencies and stock markets (and various housing markets)

Luckily, Ireland is different.

Pa ElGrande

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Oh I read it alright, and its not all 20% across the board, either, its up to 20%. Some places are only 15% or 10%. However I'll weigh the Sunday Independant against your anecdotes, and give to each their measure of respect. In any case its large and glaring headlines like this that make the shifty shuffle towards the door into a full blown lemming stampede. Market sentiment comprises a huge portion of the housing bubble, and this is like a domino effect. What you're seeing here is the first domino falling over in public view.

The sentiment change is a start but don't be too quick to associate asking price drops with actual drops, the people buying now have already committed to buy several months ago and arranged the finance. It takes at least 6 months for the interest rate rises to take effect. The next survey of house prices will still show price rises albeit on a lower volume of sales. Already the amount first time buyers can burrow today is less than it was in January this year, next year it will be less again thus reducing their purchasing power further.

SimpleSam06

Pa ElGrande wrote:

It takes at least 6 months for the interest rate rises to take effect. The next survey of house prices will still show price rises albeit on a lower volume of sales.

Oh yeah, I'm under no illusions about the pace of change. I'd say it will take until christmas 2008 to bottom out and interest rates to stabilise. When a major national newspaper prints headlines like that, however, the sentiment element is going to be severely hit. Obviously they have decided to call it and chronicle the collapse all the way down.

Pa ElGrande

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Oh yeah, I'm under no illusions about the pace of change. I'd say it will take until christmas 2008 to bottom out and interest rates to stabilise. When a major national newspaper prints headlines like that, however, the sentiment element is going to be severely hit. Obviously they have decided to call it and chronicle the collapse all the way down.

Based on previous bubbles it normally takes a minimum of 5 years to bottom out, Japanese house prices only started rising this year after their slump started over 15 years ago. I'll agree this article will have a bearing on sentiment and the upcoming ECB interest rate rises will flush out more of specuvestors by next year.

shaptakster

shaptakster wrote:

lol.
Some people in here are trying really hard to paint a dire picture of the property market. So obviously hard that i'm embarressed for them.
Can you do a post count of how many times certain people posted in this thread? That would show a lot. .

It is supposed to be a debate/discussion! With people talking back and forth ie the same people posting more than once. You reject I cant believe I am explaining this.

shaptakster wrote:

I dont think its working at all though. Prices are still going up in anything i'm looking at.
But keep trying will you Maybe you'll save us all a few quid..

I hope all your money is tied up in property
open your eyes dumbass

shaptakster wrote:

I think the best option is to go out and burn down about 500 large companies.
Only massive job losses will hurt the property market. But dont burn down my company if you dont mind.

no need they will leave of their own accord in due time

SimpleSam06

Pa ElGrande wrote:

Based on previous bubbles it normally takes a minimum of 5 years to bottom out, Japanese house prices only started rising this year after their slump started over 15 years ago.

Yes, but Ireland is different! We have built up a remarkable stack of debt in a remarkably short time, and we are now entering into a a hostile economic environment without a saving grace in sight (unlike for example the Japanese). Its impossible to say for sure at this juncture, since there are so many external factors that might come into play. However long it takes, it would be better to get it over with quickly.

faceman

SimpleSam06 wrote:

You'll no doubt be thrilled to give us all a few facts and links to back up your point of view, here. I mean, anything, really. You can be the first bull in the thread to do so. It will make you special!

Why is this such a personal vendetta for you? You chose to ignore any counter arguments by "bulls" as you call them. Not everyone who differs in a opinion is necessarily a bull.

Have you ever bought property? Do you ever intend to?

faceman

Deleted User wrote:

I hope all your money is tied up in property
open your eyes dumbass

Yet another "bear" who is bitter? This thread has really turned into something it shouldnt have.

Sure i might as well join in...

I made €65k after taxes etc on one of my properties which i sold this year. I bought it 2 years ago. How much you "bears" make this year?

chump

faceman wrote:

Yet another "bear" who is bitter? This thread has really turned into something it shouldnt have.

Sure i might as well join in...

I made €65k after taxes etc on one of my properties which i sold this year. I bought it 2 years ago. How much you "bears" make this year?

What's the relevance of any of that?

It's a bit sad tbh

faceman

chump wrote:

What's the relevance of any of that?

It's a bit sad tbh

Its just a sad as people saying "they hope your [some other poster] money is tied up in property..... ..dumbass"

This is supposed to healthy debate, no?

SimpleSam06

faceman wrote:

Why is this such a personal vendetta for you? You chose to ignore any counter arguments by "bulls" as you call them. Not everyone who differs in a opinion is necessarily a bull.

Have you ever bought property? Do you ever intend to?

Well faceman, you unlike most of the bulls here have made an honest effort to put forward thought out arguments, so I reckon that merits an answer...

lol.
Some people in here are trying really hard to paint a dire picture of the property market. So obviously hard that i'm embarressed for them.
Can you do a post count of how many times certain people posted in this thread? That would show a lot.

I dont think its working at all though. Prices are still going up in anything i'm looking at.
But keep trying will you Maybe you'll save us all a few quid.

I think the best option is to go out and burn down about 500 large companies.
Only massive job losses will hurt the property market. But dont burn down my company if you dont mind.

Can you find me the coherent argument in there please. I'll happily counter it.

ircoha

http://www.dublincoastaldevelopment.com/index.html

Just imagine the size of the brown envelopes for this project:)

BOHSBOHS

lol who thinks these things up hahaha

jesus_thats_gre

ircoha wrote:

http://www.dublincoastaldevelopment.com/index.html

Just imagine the size of the brown envelopes for this project:)

It would work if they turned it into the ultimate gated development I would easily pay the going rate for a 2 bed apartment if I could avoid the various **** bags roaming Dublin at the moment.

SimpleSam06

More news from stateside about the ongoing collapse over there, here are some of the highlights...

When the real-estate industry made it easy to borrow a lot of money, it also made it easy for people to get into financial trouble. Which is exactly what's happening, as foreclosures are surging across the country.

There are calls for loan restrictions, more disclosure and more education. Lenders are talking about "foreclosure prevention" -- ways to give homeowners more time to make payments or rework their debts. Hot lines have been set up to counsel strapped consumers.

The problem has been evident in Texas for a while. Foreclosures have been rising at double-digit rates for four years, and unlike other parts of the country, home values haven't appreciated enough to bail out borrowers.

About 3,300 homes in the Metroplex are posted for the October foreclosure auction, the most since the real-estate bust of the late 1980s, says George Roddy of Foreclosure Listing Service in Addison. He says we may be approaching a peak, but he had the same thought a year ago, only to see the postings keep rising.

Nationwide, 26 percent of the home loans were interest-only in 2005, up from 6 percent three years earlier.

In California, these loans accounted for 44 percent of originations.

Some analysts look at those numbers and predict a wave of defaults, as scores of adjustable mortgages reset to higher rates. This year, $375 billion in hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages will reset, according to the PolicyLab Consulting Group.

Next year, $1 trillion in loans are scheduled to reset.

BigEejit

ircoha wrote:

http://www.dublincoastaldevelopment.com/index.html

Just imagine the size of the brown envelopes for this project:)

What? this thing is real? ... i thought it was a joke!! ..

It would work if they turned it into the ultimate gated development I would easily pay the going rate for a 2 bed apartment if I could avoid the various **** bags roaming Dublin at the moment.

But if this actually happened, it would be a goer, a no chav gear zone .... there would still be fights, but a lot fewer people would end up stabbed

D'Peoples Voice

faceman wrote:

Yet another "bear" who is bitter? This thread has really turned into something it shouldnt have.

Sure i might as well join in...

I made €65k after taxes etc on one of my properties which i sold this year. I bought it 2 years ago. How much you "bears" make this year?

Faceman,
If you u bought a house two years ago, then that was proably around the time the European Union went from 15 to 25 countries. Straight away people were talking about the increased demand for houses brought by immigrants, and sure enough ,they were correct.
In addiiton, FF, in an attmept to increase their ratings IMHO, reduced stamp duty, another stimulent to demand.
Therefore you made your money on your house because you got in at or before these factors WERE PRICED IN. Growth in house prices had slowed prior to that because all other factors had been priced in!
However whether this was good luck or good guidance, there is no doubt that your growth can be attributed to these factors. The fact that these factors are unlikely to repeat themselves means that you need new factors to boost demand in order to counteract the higher interest rates.
Seeing as how you see yourself as an astute investor, what positive factors do you think have yet to be priced in. All I can see are negative factors and I'm usually an optimist.
One remotely positive factor might be that the Governemnt in a bid to save face over not achieving their target of builidng 10,000 social and affordable houses, engage on a crusade to purchase as many houses and sell them as social housing might increase the demand for existing houses.
I'm sure there are many others, I would like to know, and so would the owner of the house up the road whose house went on sale in August for over EUR 2.3 million, before reducing to EUR 2.1million in early September reaching sale agreed in mid -Sept and then the deal falling through in late-Sept, and the house going on the market for a lower price YET AGAIN.

shaptakster

SimpleSam06 wrote:

You'll no doubt be thrilled to give us all a few facts and links to back up your point of view, here. I mean, anything, really. You can be the first bull in the thread to do so. It will make you special! More so, I mean.


Are you advocating arson here, or just trolling?

On the contrary i would love nothing more than for house prices to come down.
I was just making the point that the same people are going on and on so much that its like they are obsessed with a crash.

After a quick gander through the thread i see that SimpleSam06, D'Peoples Voice, Pa ElGrande and sponge bob have about 50% of the posts in this thread between them. :eek:

There should be a tool to show how many times a particular person has posted in each thread.

Supercell

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

One remotely positive factor might be that the Governemnt in a bid to save face over not achieving their target of builidng 10,000 social and affordable houses, engage on a crusade to purchase as many houses and sell them as social housing might increase the demand for existing houses.

The cynic in me says this will be another builder buddies/government (read builders buddies = Berty and friends) crapola poorly finished stock that they cannot shift anymore at vast profits.
The sooner the Aherne name is removed from governance the better imho, they've sold working Ireland down a deep deep dark hole with their own greed..for shame

I blame the current bubble squarely and totally on our corrupt government/builders buddies and cannot wait to vote them out(they could have done more..eg actually acted on the Bacon report for starters!!, but the tents at the Galway races saw that one swept under the carpet).

Whats worse is because I don't want to live in a traffic jammed poorly constructed one bed shítehole in Lucan I'll be branded as a begrudger...bah.

I'm renting and plan on staying renting, even the so called affordable housing coming onstream (just around election time - anecdotal evidance for this also) may become negative equity in the next few years imho...plus you get the added bonus of clawback !!

Unless yer getting 2-3 bed..don't even think of buying an apartment near Dublin in the next while imho. funny enough..whats the one thing you cannot get 100% mortgages on..yep ..one beds...

In fairness to faceman, he's been a persistant bull and hasn't resorted in name calling unlike some others here..shame on you that have.

Faceman ..so you sold a property bought recently for a tidy profit eh?..wise decision I'd say

Idleater

Longfield wrote:

The cynic in me says this will be another builder buddies/government (read builders buddies = Berty and friends) crapola poorly finished stock that they cannot shift anymore at vast profits.
The sooner the Aherne name is removed from governance the better imho, they've sold working Ireland down a deep deep dark hole with their own greed..for shame

Funny that, the cynic in me is contemplating what would happen if we voted the current shower back in, and let them deal with the mess that they have made with property in this country.

I would rather have them left in the mud with a huge problem that they have to sort out rather than them "contesting" the election but really aiming for second place so to speak and then have the "glory" of seeing (for example) FG/Lab get stung with a property downturn and be able to say "told you so, it was only going up when we were in charge".

Not beyond the realms of possibility.

L.

Cantab.

Longfield wrote:

The cynic in me says this will be another builder buddies/government (read builders buddies = Berty and friends) crapola poorly finished stock that they cannot shift anymore at vast profits.
The sooner the Aherne name is removed from governance the better imho, they've sold working Ireland down a deep deep dark hole with their own greed..for shame

I agree with you 100%. Affordable housing is a smoke-screen for greater ills. And besides, what honest and hard-working person wants to live in a managed apartment complex outside of the city? They deserve better (and no, it's not an unrealistic expectation for a person to be able to own their own home in a developed and civilised coutry like Ireland). Scangers and lay-abouts get better housing than the kind of generic egg-boxes that are being built in the name of affordable housing.

Longfield wrote:

I blame the current bubble squarely and totally on our corrupt government/builders buddies and cannot wait to vote them out(they could have done more..eg actually acted on the Bacon report for starters!!, but the tents at the Galway races saw that one swept under the carpet).

We don't want to overdo the galway races rant - for fear of being accused of just that, being a ranter. But the point is obvious and a valid one at that. I'm going to wag my blame finger here too - I blame government corruption. AFAIC this country has not been governed for the last 10 years - it has been on autopilot with the vested interests and lobby groups running the show in the name of "incentive schemes" and "public-private partnership". (Don't get me started on the unions and public sector pay).

Longfield wrote:

Whats worse is because I don't want to live in a traffic jammed poorly constructed one bed shítehole in Lucan I'll be branded as a begrudger...bah.

I do sometimes feel sorry for the miserable, bleary-eyed commuters, but then again they were stupidly fooled into a false dream: a lot of the blame lies in their own court - we do live in a democracy after all and you can't legislate for stupidity. Having said that, it's bloody bad luck to be stuck in a rut a la commuter. Anyone who buys an out of town apartment/townhouse in a managed complex in 2006 is an idiot afaic, and ought to be made learn the hard way.

Longfield wrote:

I'm renting and plan on staying renting, even the so called affordable housing coming onstream (just around election time - anecdotal evidance for this also) may become negative equity in the next few years imho...plus you get the added bonus of clawback !!

Me too. The house I rent in Dublin 6 works out at an equivalent yield of less than 1% at today's prices. You'd be mad to buy at that level.

Longfield wrote:

Unless yer getting 2-3 bed..don't even think of buying an apartment near Dublin in the next while imho. funny enough..whats the one thing you cannot get 100% mortgages on..yep ..one beds...

I'd go even further than that - don't go near Irish property at all. I think we'll never recover from this boom, unless some economic miracle (like EU cohesion funds or US foreign direct investment) comes our way again - unlikely: we're on our own this time chaps.

Longfield wrote:

In fairness to faceman, he's been a persistant bull and hasn't resorted in name calling unlike some others here..shame on you that have.

Faceman ..so you sold a property bought recently for a tidy profit eh?..wise decision I'd say

Me too.

SimpleSam06

shaptakster wrote:

I was just making the point that the same people are going on and on so much that its like they are obsessed with a crash.

How often do you get to witness a piece of history?

shaptakster wrote:

After a quick gander through the thread i see that SimpleSam06, D'Peoples Voice, Pa ElGrande and sponge bob have about 50% of the posts in this thread between them. :eek:

Why am I even bothering to answer this. Add something to the discussion or go away. Please.