Housing bubble starting to pop?

K_user

finnpark wrote:

Fine Gael TD has warned than next government has to find alternetive employment for construction workers as the construction industry will collapse over the next 5 years. Quite shocking. Ive contacted the estate agent to put one of my properties up for sale.

Opposing parties are always warning each other about something...

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Fine Gael TD has warned than next government has to find alternetive employment for construction workers as the construction industry will collapse over the next 5 years. Quite shocking. Ive contacted the estate agent to put one of my properties up for sale.

Apologies, it was a top economist Jim something which made the remarks at a Fine Gael propaganda thingy. This makes it even worse. He should know what hes talking about.

tunney

Please quote correctly and cite references.

He didn't say what you are claiming.

(http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/09/14/story276761.html)

giddyup

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=35&si=1687460&issue_id=14637

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1687282&issue_id=14637

Requires free registration.

The game is up.

I wouldnt worry too much about what DD has to say. He's probably shorting Irish Property funds and this is just a cunning plan. Next he'll be saying that nobody will be buying Turkeys at Christmas as he secretly lodges his turkey cloning patents.

K_user

tunney wrote:

Please quote correctly and cite references.

He didn't say what you are claiming.

(http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/09/14/story276761.html)

That would be half of the problem at the moment.
Economists being misunderstood, or misquoted. Its Chinese whispers gone mad.

Sizzler

So Jim Power has posted his Fine Gael colours to the mast and sided with them....so what !

JP and that other spanner Austin Hughes seem to spend more time being media whores than actually doing their day job.....woops maybe that IS their job

Based on what Desmond said "property could be over valued by as much as 20%" so if you bought a gaff (investor or otherwise) and that gaff is now worth 30% more than when you did are you worried? Doubt it.

I can only comment on my experiences but I dont know many people who HAVEN'T made at least 30% on the price of their property in recent years, and the people I know that have made investments for rental bought 4-5 yrs ago and have made c.40% whilst some other clown(usually the govt) is paying their mortgage for them. Again we are back to the point where more and more people posting here are trying to say, the majority of people buy a gaff to LIVE in! Who gives a hoop about the economies over reliance on a given sector, as long as the average punter can afford to pay their mortgage than thats all they care about.

SimpleSam06

K_user wrote:

Ever lived abroad? 40 minutes is nothing to the commute in other countries.

In the underpopulated rustic rock we call Ireland, 6 hours a week spent stuck in traffic is too much.

K_user wrote:

Actually it is true. You only bet what you can afford.

But thats not what you said.

K_user wrote:

Who says the market will sort itself out?

Look around you.

K_user wrote:

Like in cities all around the world once houses become too expensive apartments become the norm - its happening here now... Just take a look at cities across the globe.

Oh I am, and if you had read the thread, you would have too. Houses in Australia and the states in major cities are currently collapsing like dominoes in house prices.

K_user wrote:

Also a mortgage is not dead money.

I never said it was. I said interest on a mortgage is dead money. If that interest is more than the cost of renting, adding in fuel and time savings, you are much better off renting and saving for a house. Make no mistake I am in favour of home ownership. Just not at this minute.

K_user wrote:

A Mortgage is going to the bank though. But its paying back the biggest loan you will ever get...A home.

Interest makes one group rich, and thats the bank.

K_user wrote:

Rent for 30 years and all you’ve done is paid someone else’s mortgage.

Actually they are subsidising your lifestyle by paying more in interest than you will in paying in rent. I'm quite happy to have someone do so, while I save my money. Cheers lads.

K_user wrote:

The market is something that we, the average joe, have no control over. The market will go one way or another, either way you have to live with it.

Sorry, try again. With the advent of the internet, that mindset went out the window. That thread over on AAM made the Indo today, did you know? That influences sentiment, which influences the market, espcially a house of cards of a market like this one.

K_user wrote:

There is a saying that you should "always paddle your own canoe", ...that is to do their own maths, never invest in something that they can’t cope with and don’t depend on others to make life better. That advice doesn’t change based on an individuals situation, or how the market is going.

There's another saying you might be familiar with: Look before you leap.

SimpleSam06

K_user wrote:

That would be half of the problem at the moment.
Economists being misunderstood, or misquoted. Its Chinese whispers gone mad.

Yep, live by the market sentiment, die by the market sentiment. Next time we really must remember that word, fundamentals. I started this thread originally because I thought I was getting the first rumblings of a downturn. I might be wrong, but I think the purpose of this thread is nearly done.

K_user

SimpleSam06 wrote:

In the underpopulated rustic rock we call Ireland, 6 hours a week spent stuck in traffic is too much.

Oh come on!

“Underpopulated” – yet you complain about too much traffic!!!
“Rustic” – yet nearing the end of a property boom!!

Welcome to the pains of a First World country. Traffic is part and package of life in any country, in any city that is thriving.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

But thats not what you said.

Yes it is. I said that if are earning x, get a mortgage for x and you don't have to worry.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Look around you.

Yip - things are in flux. That doesn't mean they are going to get cheaper, just change.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Oh I am, and if you had read the thread, you would have too. Houses in Australia and the states in major cities are currently collapsing like dominoes in house prices.

Have you ever lived, or worked, in any of those cities? Its one thing to read an article on house prices on the other side of the world. Its another to actually be there.

First of all house prices are not toppling in Australia. I just had a long chat with an Australian and he laughed at the idea. You seem to be confusing price with value. It’s the same in the states.

Its impossible to buy a house in Sydney. It just doesn’t happen, unless you are very wealthy. But if you move well into the suburbs prices drop and value goes up. The difference is that suburbs stretch for miles and commutes can be over an hour by train. To put that in perspective it takes 2 ½ to 3 hours to get from Dublin to Galway by train. The size of Australia negates the space restrictions that we, here in Ireland, are stuck with.

What you seem to be referring to is value for money. A large house in the states costs less then an average one in Ireland. That has nothing to do with a “property boom” and everything to do with the available land. And those "cheap" houses are usually far out of the main city hubs, but they do have great infrastructure to support them.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

I never said it was. I said interest on a mortgage is dead money. If that interest is more than the cost of renting, adding in fuel and time savings, you are much better off renting and saving for a house. Make no mistake I am in favour of home ownership. Just not at this minute.

But you will always need a mortgage to buy, unless house prices drop so dramatically that you don't need a loan, which will never happen, or if you become independently wealthy...

Renting isn't exactly cheap, you still get stuck in traffic and you still have to pay the bills. In the end there is little difference to whats being paid out and its not going anywhere.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Interest makes one group rich, and thats the bank.

Not going to change - ever

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Actually they are subsidising your lifestyle by paying more in interest than you will in paying in rent. I'm quite happy to have someone do so, while I save my money. Cheers lads.

Saving your money for what? And how much?

Assuming that you are renting, that you have a car, that you have bills? You are still paying out a fair quantity of money. Saving is what you do a small part of your disposable income. By the time 10 years have past you'll have a little deposit in your pocket and if you decide to buy, another 25 years of mortgage paying to look forward too...

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Sorry, try again. With the advent of the internet, that mindset went out the window. That thread over on AAM made the Indo today, did you know? That influences sentiment, which influences the market, espcially a house of cards of a market like this one.

Wow an internet thread made it to a paper...do you think thats going to stop 10,000 people looking for a home to raise a family? Do you think thats going to force the interest rates down?

I've read plenty of stories in the paper about the tax situation, the crime situation, the litter dropping situation, the road death situation - how many of these situations have improved because of the indo? 0% perhaps?

SimpleSam06 wrote:

There's another saying you might be familiar with: Look before you leap.

Hey its your choice, rent or buy, only you can decide whats best for you. But interests rates, traffic, mortgages are the way of the modern world. No amount of wishful thinking will change that.

finnpark

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Yep, live by the market sentiment, die by the market sentiment. Next time we really must remember that word, fundamentals. I started this thread originally because I thought I was getting the first rumblings of a downturn. I might be wrong, but I think the purpose of this thread is nearly done.

Yes well done Simple Sam, it seems to be crumbling.

Anyone who is thinking of buying property now IS A FOOL.

Anyone not selling up now is just been foolish too.

antoinolachtnai

How many of yours have you sold?

SimpleSam06

K_user wrote:

First of all house prices are not toppling in Australia. I just had a long chat with an Australian and he laughed at the idea. You seem to be confusing price with value. It’s the same in the states.

Its impossible to buy a house in Sydney. It just doesn’t happen, unless you are very wealthy. But if you move well into the suburbs prices drop and value goes up. The difference is that suburbs stretch for miles and commutes can be over an hour by train. To put that in perspective it takes 2 ½ to 3 hours to get from Dublin to Galway by train. The size of Australia negates the space restrictions that we, here in Ireland, are stuck with.

Okay I'm going to take most of your post and file it under "opinion", where it should be, and deal with the one point where you actually made a statement of fact, above.

May I direct your attention to the Sydney Morning Herald, August 20th 2006 issue.

Housing crash puts sellers in debt crisis

A THREE-BEDROOM brick-veneer house in St Clair sold for just $260,000 at the weekend - down about 42 per cent from its last sale at $450,000 in 2003 in a further sign of the depressed state of the Sydney property market.

The appropriate term for that would be freefall. Which puts the one fact you did claim squarely in the realm of utter tripe, lending no credence at all to the rest of your opinions, which just aren't worth the effort to debunk, since most of them have already been repeatedly debunked in this thread.

Theres that durn intarweb again.

D'Peoples Voice

K_user wrote:

That would be half of the problem at the moment.
Economists being misunderstood, or misquoted. Its Chinese whispers gone mad.

Speaking of Chinese whispers, I was told some sh1te today at lunch!
Allegedly some FF members were raging when Noel Ahern voiced his idea of taxing so called property speculators who were buying off the plans and then selling them on when the houses were completed. they wanted to keep it quite for budget day so as to provide a budget day surprise!

FF were hoping to increase taxes for all NEW speculators buying houses after the Budget, whilst increasing the captial gains tax for the EXISTING investors( back up to the 40% it was previously, something about future tax take).
The effect of this would be that they could say they have stabilized house prices by removing one of the groups pushing up house prices, stabilized rents by not causing an exodus of investors from the markets. They could then increase the stamp duty band so that more first time buyers can purchase houses.

Thus by next May, they could go the people claiming to be tough on speculators whilst being the sugar daddy for first time buyers and yet help those stuck in the rental sector by bringing certainty to future rents. This allegedly would win them votes from traditional Labour supporters.

I don't believe it for a second! FF would never devise a budget based on a forthcoming election, that would be unethical! It's chinese whispers gone mad as you say!

jobless

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

Speaking of Chinese whispers, I was told some sh1te today at lunch!
Allegedly some FF members were raging when Noel Ahern voiced his idea of taxing so called property speculators who were buying off the plans and then selling them on when the houses were completed. they wanted to keep it quite for budget day so as to provide a budget day surprise!

FF were hoping to increase taxes for all NEW speculators buying houses after the Budget, whilst increasing the captial gains tax for the EXISTING investors( back up to the 40% it was previously, something about future tax take).
The effect of this would be that they could say they have stabilized house prices by removing one of the groups pushing up house prices, stabilized rents by not causing an exodus of investors from the markets. They could then increase the stamp duty band so that more first time buyers can purchase houses.

Thus by next May, they could go the people claiming to be tough on speculators whilst being the sugar daddy for first time buyers and yet help those stuck in the rental sector by bringing certainty to future rents. This allegedly would win them votes from traditional Labour supporters.

I don't believe it for a second! FF would never devise a budget based on a forthcoming election, that would be unethical! It's chinese whispers gone mad as you say!

Is this were to happen, what effect would it have on the housing market do you think?

Sponge Bob

well it stops speculators exiting as cleanly as before and would stabilize prices as they could not see the exit.

Its irrelevant given the size of the market overhang of 275k empties out of 1.8m habitable units and the speed with which the bubble has now started to hiss air in every direction.

There will be no need to disincentivise speculators and if you stop them exiting after December (with 40% CGT instead of 20% CGT) you are only delaying the inevitable.

As for FF, there will be plenty of empty seats in that tent in Ballybrit next year ....one way or another !




I see an October election is now a 75% possibility up form 30% in June.

aphex™

Did somebody say there were 280,000 empty houses ?

What is the source on that figure?

Anyone?

Sponge Bob

read back the thread ....willya

aphex™

Sponge Bob wrote:

read back the thread ....willya

I tried... but it is too long and search don't work

Pa ElGrande

aphex&#8482 wrote:

Did somebody say there were 280,000 empty houses ?

What is the source on that figure?

Anyone?

Worth repeating I suppose...if you look back in the thread you will see some questions and comments raised regarding the data.

Approximately 275,000 residences were vacant at the time of the census while in the remaining cases the household was either enumerated elsewhere or temporarily absent from the State.

Census 2006 Preliminary report
http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/2006PreliminaryReport.pdf [adobe acrobat required]

In the April 2006 Census of Population, the CSO identified a total of 1.8 million private residences and communal establishments throughout the State. Of these, about 275,000 were vacant at the time of the Census.

Construction and Housing in Ireland
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/construction/current/constructhousing.pdf [adobe acrobat required]

More than 300,000 homes across the country will not be included in the latest census - because there was no-one at home.
Enumerators delivering and collecting the census forms were unable to contact the inhabitants.
Following inquiries among neighbours, postmen and women and apartment block management companies, the vast majority of those dwellings - some 275,000 - were identified as being vacant.
In a further 30,000 cases, there was nobody at home when census officials called on various occasions.

No-one there, so 300,000 homes not counted in census figures
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1636317&issue_id=14226 [free registration required]

Pa ElGrande

Sponge Bob wrote:

I see an October election is now a 75% possibility up form 30% in June.

possibly, they have taken to pre-announcing, looks like Joe Higgins really got under their skin.

State to announce 3,000 low-cost homes
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2006/0914/1158001548047.html

But, its Bertie's call when the election and he's firmly bullish on property...

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said yesterday higher inflation was a sign of a strengthening economy: "In actual fact the reason it's on the rise is because probably the boom times are getting even more boomer."

Economic growth shows little sign of letting up
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2006/0714/930304623HM1ECON.html

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern lost his temper in the Dáil this morning during an exchange with Socialist Party TD Joe Higgins regarding the cost of housing.

Mr Higgins told the Dáil that the cost of buying a house was now beyond most working people and that Fianna Fáil, which receives vast sums of money from developers, was not doing anything to tackle the problem.

Mr Ahern hit back by saying the Government had done more than any other administration in the history of the state in the area of social and affordable housing.

Ahern in war of words with 'nitwit' socialist TD Higgins
http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/06/21/story264293.html

The Taoiseach said he had listened for seven years to warnings and arguments about difficulties in the construction sector. "I think you have to look at the asset. This is the question: if you are borrowing 'x', if you sell the asset, if there's a bit of a downturn, will you get 'x' back in return? That's the issue. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be an indication [of difficulties].

"I mean quite frankly, if you had taken the advice a year ago you would have lost a lot of money. Everybody said we're going to see a huge downturn in 2005 linking into 2006 - they were entirely wrong.

No indication of property downturn, says Ahern
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2006/0408/3447877711HM1NEWBERT.html

whizzbang

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

whilst increasing the captial gains tax for the EXISTING investors( back up to the 40% it was previously, something about future tax take).

They would have to implemenet this rate change immediatly otherwise you would just get a ton of investors bailing before the change.

However if they did say "starting in January" that would be very intesting to see. Interesting, not pretty.

Or they may say "in Autun 2007" which would stem the tide and perhaps get them through the election before people run. I'm not convinced though.

Sponge Bob

Looks like there IS no september season in Dublin either. Galway inventory building up like mad but cartel holding (just about) and not reducing their asking prices ...at least not until next week

However there is a Meltdown in Lucan according to what DNG seems to have told a customer as Nervous Sellers start to panic.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=36605

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=36335

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=35498

The €350k semi in Lucan will be reality by end October and that will kill Adamstown stone dead and pretty much the whole commuter belt further out.. €300k in Maynooth and €200k in Mullingar.

D'Peoples Voice

Sponge Bob wrote:

Looks like there IS no september season in Dublin either. Galway inventory building up like mad but cartel holding (just about) and not reducing their asking prices ...at least not until next week

Whateve about demand being soft during the summer, prices are not always soft during the summer- according to PTSB/ESRI figs the months with the greatest monthly growth rate since 1996 are NOT always OUTSIDE the summer months

1996

June 1.2%

1997 March 3.0%

1998

July 4.2%

1999

July 2.1%

2000 December 2.2%

2001 March 1.3%

2002 April 2.9%

2003 May 1.7%

2004 April 1.2%

2005 October 1.3%

2006-to date April 1.4%

Dilly1

What people don't seem to realise is, interest rates are set to rise for the next 3 years.

K_user

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Okay I'm going to take most of your post and file it under "opinion", where it should be, and deal with the one point where you actually made a statement of fact, above.

May I direct your attention to the Sydney Morning Herald, August 20th 2006 issue.


The appropriate term for that would be freefall. Which puts the one fact you did claim squarely in the realm of utter tripe, lending no credence at all to the rest of your opinions, which just aren't worth the effort to debunk, since most of them have already been repeatedly debunked in this thread.

Theres that durn intarweb again.

First up all we have are “opinions” as that is all this place is, a message board for “opinions”.

And btw, what is this? A scoring board? Are you so intent on somehow “proving” me wrong that you don’t even bother to read my posts? Cause if that’s the case then its hardly worth “debating” with you…

Ok, to review. I’ve never stated that there wasn’t going to be a change in the market, that hasn’t been part of my argument at all. Frankly it’s the opposite of my argument. Change is a natural part of growth. My point has simply been that we can’t stop that growth, we have to live with it.

I have also stated that anyone who is up to their neck in housing debt should get out now and get out fast.

And now the crux of my point, buying a home. People shouldn’t stop buying homes simply because they are “afraid” of an ever changing market, because the market is always changing. 5 good years, tends to bring five bad years. Its all part of life. But buying a home is an investment in your future. Renting isn’t. I have stated that buying a house is about comparing what you can afford to location and what you are prepared to live with – take a few years if you have to. A mortgage is probably the biggest loan that any of us will ever get, so be careful.

Now I don’t care if you live in Dublin, Louth, New York or Timbucktoo, that is the only advice that counts.

Try and debunk it.


Secondly, about that article, interesting...

First some things that you may not know about Sydney:
St Clair, Lethbridge Park, Heckenberg, all fine places with lovely people. But they are not exactly desirable areas. To put it another way if you were buying a home for the first time, they wouldn't be in your top 10 places to live...

St Clair


Beaumont Hills


Spot the difference?

Also, don't know if you noticed but alot of that article dealt with "mortagees". That is to say that houses that have been foreclosed on by the bank are where sold on as quickly as possible.

Another thing about Sydney and why its difficult to compare there to here, in sheer land size Sydney is one of the largest cities in the world. Its covers 1580 square kilometres. The same as London and double the size of New York! Comparatively speaking, at last count, Dublin our largest city, is 118 square kilometres. In terms of housing, infrastructure, economics it’s a completely different animal.

By-the-by, Australia is currently a buyers market, prices are either at a standstill or going down. The last time they did that was in ’87. But that didn’t last back then and it won’t last now. It’s the same here.

The market here is Ireland may stagnate. People may loose their homes, or investment properties. But house prices will never rock bottom out. Sure that might be the best time to buy but banks, having been bitten, tend to be more careful with giving money out. That makes getting a mortgage more difficult and therefore harder to “capitalise” on the lower prices. Just something to think about…

K_user

Dilly1 wrote:

What people don't seem to realise is, interest rates are set to rise for the next 3 years.

Yip - expensive times ahead...

jesus_thats_gre

Out of curiousity, what is the population density of Ireland compared to other European countries that do not seems to be suffering chronic shortages of land? What is the population density of Dublin compared to other citys also?

I am nearly sure I read somewhere that Dublin is far larger than most citys with similar populations.

jesus_thats_gre

Oh found it on wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_density

We are 139th on the list with a population density of 39 per square km.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_Dublin

Dublin itself is 921 km² and has a population of 1,186,821

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Dublin_Area

Greater Dublin covers 6,980km² and has a population of 1,661,185.

Not exactly running out of land are we.

whizzbang

jesus_thats_gre wrote:

Not exactly running out of land are we.

I see a lot of green
Google maps areial view

and that's not counting that most of the grey is low rise and could seriously increase in density.

Then if you look outside Dublin... green green green..
more green

K_user

whizzbang wrote:

I see a lot of green
Google maps areial view

and that's not counting that most of the grey is low rise and could seriously increase in density.

Then if you look outside Dublin... green green green..
more green

As I said earlier...

K_user wrote:

Like in cities all around the world once houses become too expensive apartments become the norm - its happening here now. The price of a one bedroomed flat is comparable to a house a few years back. This forces people to search for homes further a field. Which in turn leads to development in the out lying towns, boosting the local economy, improving infrastructure and creating jobs that didn't exist previously. Just take a look at cities across the globe. Over time they simply expanded.