Raskolnikov's Tennis Betting Thread!

Niall - Dahlia

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Petrova should have more than enough to handle her.

Unfortunately not, she was a break up in the 3rd but threw it 6-8.

I haven't been betting on Rolland Garros at all yet, lots of very short favourites, but tomorrow looks a bit more interesting, I'll post any picks I go for tonight.

Raskolnikov

I really fancy Del Potro to beat Federer tomorrow.

4.1 is a nice price.

Mezcita

Disagree. Federer will be fully up for this with Nadal out of the picture.

It's his to lose.

Niall - Dahlia

What are your reasons for being on Del Potro, Raskolnikov?

Have to agree with Mezcita, with Nadal out this is the best chance Fed will ever have to finally win the French Open, he surely must be up for this 100%, it's now or never really.

Del Potro hasn't taken a single set off Federer in their 5 previous encounters, I think that speak volumes and indicates that Fed has Del Potro's game sussed out. Their last match was earlier this year, also on Clay, which Federer took quite comfortably. I like Del Potro, one of my favourite young players, but he can get lazy and disinterested when things aren't going his way, and he definitely isn't gonna get it all his way today.

Some more stats, Fed leads in games 73-29 and has won 98% of his service games against Del Boy. That's quite a record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Del Potro finally take a set though, I suspect Fed to be quite nervous in the beginning as he admitted to being at the start of the Monfils match, so I'll watch this In-Play and maybe try to take Fed at a better price.

Bobeagleburger

Any chance of an upset in the final today or should it be relatively handy for Fed ?

8-10

rarnes1 wrote: »

Any chance of an upset in the final today or should it be relatively handy for Fed ?

Should be Federer, and I hope so! Took him at evens when Nadal went out to hedge a large bet on Murray at the same time. He's 9 and 0 against Soderling in his career.

Bobeagleburger

8-10 wrote: »

Should be Federer, and I hope so! Took him at evens when Nadal went out to hedge a large bet on Murray at the same time. He's 9 and 0 against Soderling in his career.

He was as big as 13/8 on betfair when Nadal went out.

You should change your bookies !

paddyb125

I think a lay of Federer 3-0 @ 2.8 on Betfair will be my bet today. He's looked very nervous in all of his matches compared to Soderling who looks totally in control. I do expect Fed to win but not as comfortably as 3-0

Niall - Dahlia

Well I really wouldn't like to call this. In my last post I tipped Fed to take out Del Potro and finally win this tournament, but Soderling is on fire this week! I can't bet against him pre-match. If anything Soderling is the value pre-match, but I think I'll wait for any In-Game opportunities.

Kind of ironic that Fed finally reaches a French Open final that isn't against Nadal, only to run into the guy who knocked Nadal out!

This is Fed's fourth French Open final, having lost all previous finals. Admittedly all against Nadal, but you have to wonder if it effects him mentally, it's the last hurdle he needs to jump before being considered by many to be the greatest player of all time.

9 previous encounters between these two, Soderling has taken just one set, on grass. Fed leads 2-0 on clay, most recently last month in Madrid.

Soderlings first Grand Slam final. So far he's been mentally very strong, but this has to be a huge new experience for the Swede. Going to be interesting to see how he handles it, and I can see the crowd being very much behind Federer, especially since he is trying to make history here. He may be the man who toppled Nadal, but I think Soderling can come across as arrogant in his matches, which the crowd hate. Crowd were clearly with Gonzalez in the Semis.

Fed has dropped the first set in 3 of his 6 matches this tournament, Soderling has only dropped the first set once. I quite fancy Soderling to take the first @ 3.0, or Fed to at least make a slow start, so for everybody taking Fed @ 1.22 pre-match, I think you're better off waiting and get a better price In-Game.

That's just some of the factors I think will come into play, think I'm just gonna sit back and relax and just watch!

MrKingsley

I wouldn't be surprised to see Del Potro finally take a set though, I suspect Fed to be quite nervous in the beginning as he admitted to being at the start of the Monfils match, so I'll watch this In-Play and maybe try to take Fed at a better price.[/QUOTE]

Did you get on federer in-game in that match? If so what price?

What are peoples betting tips for wimbledon?
Obviously the draw will have a lot to do with it. At the minute im thinking of backing federer (5/4 is a very good price IMO) heavily and also whichever big server with a decent grass record (Roddick 16/1, Ancic 66/1 or even nalbandian 80/1) is in Nadals half of the draw e/w.

Niall - Dahlia

MrKingsley wrote: »

Did you get on federer in-game in that match? If so what price?

No I didn't unfortunately.

I don't bet on outright tournament winners, but I'll throw in my 2c anyway. Like you said MrKingsley it's hard to judge at the moment without seeing the draw, but also before knowing how serious Nadal's knee injury is.

Nadal is about 9/2 on Betfair at the moment, which of course takes into account his knee injury. Great price if it's all mind-games and Nadal will be 100% fit for Wimbledon, but it's hard to tell. He says this on his website that he is "200% ready for the most important tournament in the world"...this coming from a claycourter! But I think the more interesting quote is: "I have 2 difficult weeks ahead of me, especially because I won't be doing what I like doing most, which is to play tennis, but I will be working on my recovery through physiotherapy treatments"

If this is true he will come into the tournament with no grass games under his belt, and little to no competative court time. Gonna be interesting to see his first match odds. Interestingly enough Fed has also pulled out of this week's Halle Open, which he's won 5 of the past 6 years. Bit of a hangover from last week's celebrations maybe? Something to read into? Hard to tell again, but either way this isn't his usual preparation for Wimbledon and the grass court swing.

Personally I don't think Fed will win Wimbledon. It was a great achievement for him to finally win the French Open, and it gets that monkey off his back, but he didn't have that hard of route to the final, and he couldn't have hand-picked an easier opponent to make history against. He was very close to getting knocked out early doors, and all this talk of a "rejuvenated" career is a bit soon I think.

I think Roddick is a good shout man, he's made the final twice in the past 5 years, so why not if Nadal is not 100% fit and Fed is still someway from (or past) his best. You have to take Murray seriously this year too. But I quite like Del Potro @ 35/1 as a bit of a dark horse...sure he's got little grass credentials and hasn't figured in Wimbledon past the 2nd round, but again why not? He'll win a Slam sooner or later I reckon, and I love watching him play, so I'll be rooting for him.

Collie D

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

But I quite like Del Potro @ 35/1 as a bit of a dark horse...sure he's got little grass credentials and hasn't figured in Wimbledon past the 2nd round, but again why not? He'll win a Slam sooner or later I reckon, and I love watching him play, so I'll be rooting for him.

For some reason I fancied him too despite his record. Will hang on to see which side of the draw he's on although that said I'm not sure if I want him in Fed's half or in Rafa's As for Murray, I'm not quite sure he has the temperament to win Wimbledon, the pressure might get to him but could be a lively one for the US IMO

Niall - Dahlia

Just a quick note on Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.5 against Agnieszka Radwanska today at 1pm.

Rad injured her right hand in the US Open and it's still not fully healed judging from reports and how she's had it strapped in recent matches. Her manager saying she's using laser therapy to ease the pain but that surgery might be necessary. She even said herself that during training before this tournament she had to keep the racket in her left (off) hand!

So I'm putting something small on Hantuchova @2.5 with the prediction of Radwanska retiring in the 2nd set.

ErinGoBrath

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Just a quick note on Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.5 against Agnieszka Radwanska today at 1pm.

Rad injured her right hand in the US Open and it's still not fully healed judging from reports and how she's had it strapped in recent matches. Her manager saying she's using laser therapy to ease the pain but that surgery might be necessary. She even said herself that during training before this tournament she had to keep the racket in her left (off) hand!

So I'm putting something small on Hantuchova @2.5 with the prediction of Radwanska retiring in the 2nd set.

Could well be a great call here. Ranwanska takes the first set easily, 3 up in the 2nd set and loses 6 games on the trot! I wonder has her arm fallen off completely...

Niall - Dahlia

Not to be, Hantuchova buckles, 3-6, 6-3, 3-6. Didn't see the match but from the sounds of things Rad's hand didn't bother her much.

Pretty lousy day with Hewitt acting the complete arseclown aswell.