Raskolnikov's Tennis Betting Thread!

Raskolnikov

Nikolay Davydenko @ 6/4 to beat Dandy Murray (1 unit)

Raskolnikov

Nadal and Hewitt now out. Traded out on Hewitt as I wasn't all that confident on him again Roddick. Every other outright was a loser. Very disapointing run of results on the outrights though, I needed just one to make the semi's, didn't even get that.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Nikolay Davydenko @ 6/4 to beat Dandy Murray (1 unit)

Bet Won

Denko crushed an underperforming Murray, couldn't believe how easy it was. Murray getting a well deserved bagel at the end

+€526.67

Lots of graft for €20 profit, will have to pick things up and try and finish the US Open on a high.

Raskolnikov

Bump!

This thread sort of died a death a few years back. I'm going to revive it for anyone that's interested. Will have a look for some picks when I get back from work.

Any thoughts, comments or feedback wil always be welcome.

mbradso2003

Interesting thread Raskolnikov. Tennis is also the only sport I win really win money at. Personally I try to stick to mens tennis, focusing on firstly success on surface and then form. I also like to bet players who are playing in home tournaments!

Niall - Dahlia

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Bump!

This thread sort of died a death a few years back. I'm going to revive it for anyone that's interested. Will have a look for some picks when I get back from work.

Any thoughts, comments or feedback wil always be welcome.

Hey Raskolnikov, well I for one am interested! Never saw this thread before you bumped it.

I've been betting on tennis since the start of the season in January (I posted a 3 months spreadsheet in another thread) and have increased my bank ten-fold (thanks to Zvonerava today), it's the only sport I feel I can consistantly analyse and predict, so I'll be very interested in your picks. I bet almost every day so I'll try to throw some in this thread, though I don't want to hijack! Looking forward to your picks.

dioltas

Was looking at the first page of this thread before I realised it was over 2 years old! Fair play for reviving it though. Looking forward to some good tips and advice!

Rjd2

Federer to beat Murray tonight at 4/5 is value. Fed is due a win against a player who has not impressed me that much this week. Lets not forget Murray seems more focused on Miami next week.

Raskolnikov

Going to start off from zero again. Also, I'm going to use decimal odds this time since most of my punting is through betfair. All profit will be shown net of commission.

Sony Ericsson Open Qualification (Miami Masters)

Laid Dudi Sela vs. Alexander Domijan @ 1.07. Liability €7.00. Profit €95.40.

Bit of a gamble even at these high odds to be backing an unknown kid. I'm hoping that the home state advantage is going to play into my favour here. Even though Sela had an excellent showing in Australia, he's well capable of playing a clanger.

Laid Tomasz Bellucci vs. Marco Chiudinelli @ 1.42. Liability €8.40. Profit €19.08.

Chiudinelli has been in awful form in the last year, dropping down the ATP rankings and being forced into entering qualifiers in order to gain entry into the major tournaments. I think that he'll have too much for the Brazilian clay-courter, who had admittedly done well so far this year.

Raskolnikov

As an aside, I noticed Gaston Gaudio is in action for the first time in awhile. You may not be familiar with him, but he's the last person to win Roland Garros before Nadal. I saw odds of 7.0 available in his match against Korolev, but I've been burned so many times by him in the past, I just couldn't bring myself to back him.

He'll probably do the business now!

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote: »

As an aside, I noticed Gaston Gaudio is in action for the first time in awhile. You may not be familiar with him, but he's the last person to win Roland Garros before Nadal. I saw odds of 7.0 available in his match against Korolev, but I've been burned so many times by him in the past, I just couldn't bring myself to back him.

He'll probably do the business now!

He ended up losing the game after having match point. Not only that, but he double faulted three times in one game, but still won the game

Raskolnikov

Both players lost, bank stands at -€15.40.

Laid Vincent Spadea vs. Ricardo Mello @ 1.45. Liability €9.00. Profit €19.08.

The hard court will probably favour Spadea, but Mello has some decent form coming into this. This will be a much closer game than the odds suggest.

Raskolnikov

Outrights for Sony Ericsson Open

Backed Jeremy Chardy @ 500/1 to win. Liability €3. Profit €1,500. - NAP (Bet365).

I very rarely would suggest any pick as a NAP, but I feel that Chardy offers huge value at this price. He seems to have come out of nowhere this season to play some excellent matches, beating many higher ranked opponents along the way (Ferrer, Andreev, Fish) on hard courts. I watched him in Marseille against Djokovic, and frankly, he was extremely unlucky to have lost. I'm not suggesting for a moment that he can win this, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him make the semi-final. If that happens, there'll be a good opportunity to trade out. His seasons profile is up here and would suggest that this could be a breakthrough year for the young Frenchman.

Backed Gilles Simon @ 200.0 to win. Liability €4. Profit €759.38.

You'll probably think I've gone mad by backing another frog. At 200/1 though, I only see value in the selection as there's a reasonable chance that he may make the semi's. Like Chards, he's in decent form at the moment, recently making the quarters at Oz. The slower court/balls on the Miami hard courts should be more to his liking as well.

Niall - Dahlia

Any tips on tomorrow's matches Raskolnikov?

I'm leaning towards Hernych (1.4) and Baghdatis (1.66) wins, but think I'll wait until later tonight or morning to decide.

Raskolnikov

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Any tips on tomorrow's matches Raskolnikov?

I'm leaning towards Hernych (1.4) and Baghdatis (1.66) wins, but think I'll wait until later tonight or morning to decide.

I can't say I would be too keen on either of those two picks. I don't think I could bring myself to back Baghdatis against a highly rated youngster, who's improving with every tourament.

I can't see proper prices at the moment, but the following would interest me.

Stakhovsky over Isner (2/1)
Sela over Hewitt (5/2)
Bellucci over Santoro (events)

Raskolnikov

Mello won, bank stands at €3.68.

dioltas

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Backed Jeremy Chardy @ 500/1 to win. Liability €3. Profit €1,500. - NAP (Bet365)

Chardy lost in the first round. Was worth chancing it anyway!

mbradso2003

I really like Taylor Dents chances today against Almagro. Although Dent has recently returned from long term injury, he has already easily defeated a decent player in Mello this week. Almagro is primarily a clay court specialist but on these hard courts i definately like Dent's chances at Evens.

Niall - Dahlia

If Almagro is fit and up for it I don't think he'll have any problems overcoming Dent, though with the claycourt swing about to begin I can also see Almagro being unmotivated and gearing up for the claycourt tournaments, so I won't be touching that match.

I'll be going for Pennetta today @ 1.5. I think that's pretty good considering she's a top 15 player and her opponent in the form of Maria Kirilenko seems to have more interest in off-court modelling contracts than on-court winning these days. The 0-2 H2H doesn't bother me since Kirilenko is definitely not the player she was 2 years ago. She's won only 2 matches this year, going 3 sets against R59 Bondarenko this week, losing the 2nd 6-0. Pennetta had a decent run at Indian Wells, taking eventual finalist Ivanovic to 3 sets. So she's my pick today.

Nothing really interests me on the ATP card to be honest.

Niall - Dahlia

mbradso2003 wrote: »

I really like Taylor Dents chances today against Almagro.

Congrats man, went all the way, 3rd set tie-break. Fair play to Dent after going down 6-2 in the 1st.

Niall - Dahlia wrote:

I'll be going for Pennetta today @ 1.5

Win.

mbradso2003

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Congrats man, went all the way, 3rd set tie-break. Fair play to Dent after going down 6-2 in the 1st.



Win.

Cheers Man. Recovered well after first set to win second set 6.2. Should have wrapped it up before tiebreak as he had three match points in third.

Good start for weekend anyhow, bet him in a single and a four-fold.

Raskolnikov

Chardy, you wally bank stands at €0.68.

Laid Andy Murray to defeat Juan Monaco in two sets at 1.26. Profit €19.08. Liability €5.20.

Laid Andy Roddick to defeat Diego Junqueira in two sets at 1.14. Profit €28.62. Liability €4.20.

Laid Rafael Nadal to defeat Teimuraz Gabashvili in two sets at 1.13. Profit €23.85. Liability €3.25.

Raskolnikov

dioltas wrote: »

Chardy lost in the first round. Was worth chancing it anyway!

I actually thought he was the better player, that was until his serve just collapsed in the critical games.

Raskolnikov

Nadal and Roddick won in two, but Murray needed three sets to win. Bank stands at €12.31..

Backing Djokovic to win the Sony Ericsson Open at 15.0. Profit €66.78. Liability €5.

Laid Federer to defeat Kiefer in two sets at 1.25. Profit €14.31. Liability €3.75.

Backing at least one tie break in Federer vs. Kiefer @ 3/1. Profit €30. Liability €10 - Paddypower.com

Niall - Dahlia

Just a heads up on a possible upset today, Serena Williams vs Klara Zakopalova.

Serena has only arrived in Spain a few hours ago, and having picked up a thigh injury against Azarenka in Miami last week, it gives her barely any rest time before the match. Word is she's just here for the appearance money too, and may either throw it or retire, wtih an eye on the bigger tournaments to start soon.

Thier last encounter (2003, also on clay, a surface Williams admits to disliking) wasn't exactly a walkover for Williams, 6-4 6-4. So worth a small bet on Zakopalova @ ~ 6, especially if you're on a book that pays out on retirements.

Pighead

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Just a heads up on a possible upset today, Serena Williams vs Klara Zakopalova.

Serena has only arrived in Spain a few hours ago, and having picked up a thigh injury against Azarenka in Miami last week, it gives her barely any rest time before the match. Word is she's just here for the appearance money too, and may either throw it or retire, wtih an eye on the bigger tournaments to start soon.

Thier last encounter (2003, also on clay, a surface Williams admits to disliking) wasn't exactly a walkover for Williams, 6-4 6-4. So worth a small bet on Zakopalova @ ~ 6, especially if you're on a book that pays out on retirements.

Brilliant stuff Niall! One of the best tips I've seen on this forum. Williams barely moved around the court in that 3rd set. Her thigh injury obviously playing up just like you said. Great tipping buddy.

Niall - Dahlia

Zakopalova wins 6-4 3-6 6-1

6.6 on PP. Congrats if you got on board!

Niall - Dahlia

Think I'll keep this thread alive since there isn't enough interest in tennis betting to start a new one!

The start of the claycourt season was a real curveball for me, which I should have expected and adjusted for with smaller stakes, but didn't! As a result I've barely broken even this month. The past week has been good thankfully, in particular the Rome Masters, as players have finally settled into the claycourts. Looking forward now to the Madrid Masters which starts in earnest next Monday.

Until then we have a few 250 tournaments, most notable of which being the first Serbian Open, with plenty of Serbian players involved including Rome Masters finalist and world number 3 Novak Djokovic.

Not much on the cards tomorrow, but I'll go with a Serbian double:

Victor Troicki @ 1.44 to beat Sam Querrey. Querrey is coming off a leg injury he suffered after Miami, with his first claycourt match of the year seeing him lose fairly convincingly to Andreas Seppi. Querrey isn't exactly the fastest mover on court, and any niggling leg trouble is going to tell. Troicki has recently disposed of the much improved Hanescu in straight sets and managed a set off world number 5 Del Potro last week in Rome. Querrey can play on clay as he demonstrated last year reaching the Monte-Carlo quarter finals, but this is a very different tournament from Monte-Carlo, and I don't think he'll have the support or motivation to grind out a win here. Troicki on the other hand will be looking to do well on home turf in the inaugural Serbian Open.

Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.28 to beat Roitman. Tipsarevic has started his claycourt season with wins over claycourt specialists Acasuso and Montanes, and a win over an out of form Monfils. His loss in Rome came at the hands of a blistering Fernando Gonzalez, who was only denied a shot at Masters glory by Rafael Nadal. Roitman by comparison has only mustered one win on ATP clay this year, against rank 99 Agustin Calleri. Roitman will feel a long way from home with an expected vocal Serb crowd. Seems like a banker to me.

I'll be keeping stakes here small/medium, as clay seems to throw up the most bizarre results. These are small tournaments with not much in the way of prizemoney and ranking points, and with a Masters tournament on the horizon you can never be sure of player motivation. We'll see how these two bets go to test the Belgrade waters, any funny business and I'll be keeping my money for Madrid next week!

scruff321

thanks niall made a tenner from this

appreciate looking at anymore decent matches you may throw up

Niall - Dahlia

Nice one scruff! Two terrible matches in all honesty, WTA-style break-fest at times.

Not much on today either to be honest, I'm really wary of the Madrid Masters starting next week, I've been burnt a few times with players tanking just before major events.

So this morning I'm going to try a small stake on Gaston Gaudio to beat Fabio Fognini @2.16, which starts at 12.30.

Gaudio last week won a Tunisian Challenger title, his first title in many years for the former World Number 5. He's having a bit of a renaissance at the moment, winning that title and beating some decent opponents in the way of Frederico Gil and Jarkko Nieminen. But the important factor here is that he's applied for wildcard entry to Roland Garros, and really needs to get ATP wins under his belt to justify his entry. He's going to be hungry for this win. Fognini on the other hand can completely turn off if he's not interested in a match. When he's motivated he's extremely capable on clay, but if he's in any way passive today I feel Gaudio will take advantage. I could be wrong, and tiredness could be a factor for Gaudio after Tunis, my main bets today will all be In-Play, but this is worth a small stake.

Niall - Dahlia

Guess Gaudio should stick to Challengers! 6-3 6-4 Fognini, good win for him.

Good day otherwise live betting with Cilic in 1st set. Better looking card tomorrow, I'll have a more confident pick tonight.

Niall - Dahlia

Three picks for me tomorrow:

A Montanes tb S Greul @ 1.40

This is my pick of the day. Greul is a Challenger level clay-courter who just hasn't the game to step up to ATP level. He boasts a career 103-50 win-loss on clay, but scratch a litte deeper and you'll find he stands 5-10 at ATP level. He faces a seasoned claycourter in the form of Albert Montanes, who has shown decent form this year, most recently in Monte-Carlo, taking the 1st set off Djokovic and taking the 2nd to a tight tiebreak, only to bagel the 3rd. He's had some disappointing losses this year but I think he has enough to see off Greul with plenty left in the tank. The shadow of Madrid looms though, medium bet.


J Monaco tb F Serra @ 1.22

I'll probably throw this into a double with Montanes with a small stake. Monaco is in great form, recently claiming the scalp of Robredo, Cilic and Murray. He went all the way to the QF's in Rome last week, and had no trouble in R1 of this tournament seeing off Pablo Cuevas. Serra is very capable on clay, but with Monaco leading the clay Head-to-Head 2-0 all in straight sets, and considering Monaco's fine form, I'm on the Argentine.

P Starace tb S Bolelli @ 2.30

This is an interesting one. Ranked 95 Starace leads his Rank 50 Italian counterpart 4-0 on clay, beating him every year for the past 4 years! Not only that, Bolelli has failed to take a single set off Starace in all 4 of their clay encounters. Starace seems to have Bolelli's number when it comes to the red dirt. Their most recent encounter was on hard court however, which Bolelli came through 7-6 6-4, which is a slight concern, as is Starace's up and down recent form, but it's worth a small stake and I'll be keeping an eye on this match particularly for In-Play betting.

Niall - Dahlia

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

A Montanes tb S Greul @ 1.40
J Monaco tb F Serra @ 1.22
P Starace tb S Bolelli @ 2.30

Win
Loss
Win

Bit pissed with the Montanes and Monaco games, they were both to be televised and Bet-In-Play on Ladbrokes/PP, but weren't available once the matches began. Still, good profit today.

Niall - Dahlia

Just a quick note; word is that Starace will be pulling out of his match with Daniel Brands, he's gone from 1.6 fav to 3.3 dog. Most bookies have stopped taking bets on him, but you can still get Brands @ 1.4 on the exchanges, and maybe you can get him to take the 1st set elsewhere. Not saying it's a definite thing, and there was more value to be had earlier before the bookies decided to close shop, so take it for what it's worth. Match is scheduled for 12.45 start.

stephenoleary

Lumped on this, thanks for the tip

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Just a quick note; word is that Starace will be pulling out of his match with Daniel Brands, he's gone from 1.6 fav to 3.3 dog. Most bookies have stopped taking bets on him, but you can still get Brands @ 1.4 on the exchanges, and maybe you can get him to take the 1st set elsewhere. Not saying it's a definite thing, and there was more value to be had earlier before the bookies decided to close shop, so take it for what it's worth. Match is scheduled for 12.45 start.

Niall - Dahlia

whodini wrote: »

Lumped on this, thanks for the tip

Err, well good luck, but I wouldn't recommend anybody lumping on something like that! Hope you're not in for too much, I've just heard Starace will play, but I still think he will tank/retire, he has to play qualifiers for Madrid as far as I know.

Niall - Dahlia

There's the retirement, 6-4 1-1, Starace retires.

superfootyfan

Anyone got any good bets for Rolland Garros this week ??

Niall - Dahlia

No bets for me for today, alot of short favourites, I'm gonna wait to see what tomorrow holds.

But if you have to bet my tip would be for Petrova to beat Sharapova @ 1.72

Sharapova only returned to the WTA last week after a long absence from injury, I don't think she has the form yet to challenge world number 11 Petrova. She went 3 sets against R64 Yakimova, dropping the first 3-6. It's their first meeting on clay, and with Petrova holding a respectable enough 9-5 record on clay this year, I think it's going to go Petrova's way, possibly in straight sets.

Raskolnikov

Oo-er, forgot about this.

I actually had a bet on Dokic last night against Dementieva at 5/1. She took the first set and had a break of service in the second. I was counting the cash when suddenly or back gave out and she was in tears with pain. I think we cried together as she was forced to retire

Anyway, I still have a few bets in the outrights. Radwanska at 180 to win and Simon at 660. Raging I didn't get Murray at 40+.

For match bets, the only one I have is to lay Nadal 3-0 @1.22.

Raskolnikov

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

It's their first meeting on clay, and with Petrova holding a respectable enough 9-5 record on clay this year, I think it's going to go Petrova's way, possibly in straight sets.

Considering that she did akin her ability on clay to that of "a cow on ice", Petrova should have more than enough to handle her.

Niall - Dahlia

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Petrova should have more than enough to handle her.

Unfortunately not, she was a break up in the 3rd but threw it 6-8.

I haven't been betting on Rolland Garros at all yet, lots of very short favourites, but tomorrow looks a bit more interesting, I'll post any picks I go for tonight.

Raskolnikov

I really fancy Del Potro to beat Federer tomorrow.

4.1 is a nice price.

Mezcita

Disagree. Federer will be fully up for this with Nadal out of the picture.

It's his to lose.

Niall - Dahlia

What are your reasons for being on Del Potro, Raskolnikov?

Have to agree with Mezcita, with Nadal out this is the best chance Fed will ever have to finally win the French Open, he surely must be up for this 100%, it's now or never really.

Del Potro hasn't taken a single set off Federer in their 5 previous encounters, I think that speak volumes and indicates that Fed has Del Potro's game sussed out. Their last match was earlier this year, also on Clay, which Federer took quite comfortably. I like Del Potro, one of my favourite young players, but he can get lazy and disinterested when things aren't going his way, and he definitely isn't gonna get it all his way today.

Some more stats, Fed leads in games 73-29 and has won 98% of his service games against Del Boy. That's quite a record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Del Potro finally take a set though, I suspect Fed to be quite nervous in the beginning as he admitted to being at the start of the Monfils match, so I'll watch this In-Play and maybe try to take Fed at a better price.

Bobeagleburger

Any chance of an upset in the final today or should it be relatively handy for Fed ?

8-10

rarnes1 wrote: »

Any chance of an upset in the final today or should it be relatively handy for Fed ?

Should be Federer, and I hope so! Took him at evens when Nadal went out to hedge a large bet on Murray at the same time. He's 9 and 0 against Soderling in his career.

Bobeagleburger

8-10 wrote: »

Should be Federer, and I hope so! Took him at evens when Nadal went out to hedge a large bet on Murray at the same time. He's 9 and 0 against Soderling in his career.

He was as big as 13/8 on betfair when Nadal went out.

You should change your bookies !

paddyb125

I think a lay of Federer 3-0 @ 2.8 on Betfair will be my bet today. He's looked very nervous in all of his matches compared to Soderling who looks totally in control. I do expect Fed to win but not as comfortably as 3-0

Niall - Dahlia

Well I really wouldn't like to call this. In my last post I tipped Fed to take out Del Potro and finally win this tournament, but Soderling is on fire this week! I can't bet against him pre-match. If anything Soderling is the value pre-match, but I think I'll wait for any In-Game opportunities.

Kind of ironic that Fed finally reaches a French Open final that isn't against Nadal, only to run into the guy who knocked Nadal out!

This is Fed's fourth French Open final, having lost all previous finals. Admittedly all against Nadal, but you have to wonder if it effects him mentally, it's the last hurdle he needs to jump before being considered by many to be the greatest player of all time.

9 previous encounters between these two, Soderling has taken just one set, on grass. Fed leads 2-0 on clay, most recently last month in Madrid.

Soderlings first Grand Slam final. So far he's been mentally very strong, but this has to be a huge new experience for the Swede. Going to be interesting to see how he handles it, and I can see the crowd being very much behind Federer, especially since he is trying to make history here. He may be the man who toppled Nadal, but I think Soderling can come across as arrogant in his matches, which the crowd hate. Crowd were clearly with Gonzalez in the Semis.

Fed has dropped the first set in 3 of his 6 matches this tournament, Soderling has only dropped the first set once. I quite fancy Soderling to take the first @ 3.0, or Fed to at least make a slow start, so for everybody taking Fed @ 1.22 pre-match, I think you're better off waiting and get a better price In-Game.

That's just some of the factors I think will come into play, think I'm just gonna sit back and relax and just watch!

MrKingsley

I wouldn't be surprised to see Del Potro finally take a set though, I suspect Fed to be quite nervous in the beginning as he admitted to being at the start of the Monfils match, so I'll watch this In-Play and maybe try to take Fed at a better price.[/QUOTE]

Did you get on federer in-game in that match? If so what price?

What are peoples betting tips for wimbledon?
Obviously the draw will have a lot to do with it. At the minute im thinking of backing federer (5/4 is a very good price IMO) heavily and also whichever big server with a decent grass record (Roddick 16/1, Ancic 66/1 or even nalbandian 80/1) is in Nadals half of the draw e/w.