Raskolnikov's Tennis Betting Thread!

Raskolnikov

My forté is tennis betting so I've thought, so, here's my thread about it. Be aware that 1 unit for me is €50 and that I'll be constantly seeking the best prices on matches.

Gstaad Open.

Lopez 23/24 to beat Ramirez-Hidalgo (1 unit)
Ljubicic 4/1 NOT to beat Chiudinelli 2-0 in sets (1 unit)

Baastad Open.

Calleri 5/4 to beat Soderling (1 unit)


Odds courtesy of betfair.com and Pinnacle.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Lopez 23/24 to beat Ramirez-Hidalgo (1 unit)

Bet Won
After an inital scare, my boy Lopez goes on to win this 2-1.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Ljubicic 4/1 NOT to beat Chiudinelli 2-0 in sets (1 unit)

Bet Won
Chiudinelli just won the opening set of this match in a close tie-break. Just as long as the match doesn't end in a retirement, this one is in the bag.

jobless

well done....keep em coming...might stick them in a small accum

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Calleri 5/4 to beat Soderling (1 unit)

Bet Won
That gives me 3/3 which is attributable more to luck than actual tipping ability.

If anyone wants to follow a tip of mine, I strong suggest that they do NOT use accumulators, you'll definitely lose in the long run.

+€310.42

Bateman

I was on Ljubicic in the Match Odds, had 2pts on, and the poxy match wasn't played for 2 days because of the weather, ended up locking up liquidity for 2 days of football, and the winnings weren't even worth it.

Raskolnikov

Mercedes Cup

Simon 10/11 to beat Mayer (1 unit)

Amersfoort

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

On De Bakker, he's this years Boys Wimbledon champion, only 17 but he still managed to wipe the floor with Benneteau a few days ago. Not only that, but he's on home soil here so that will hopefully give him an extra edge to win this.

Expect to hear a lot more from this young fella in the future.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Simon 10/11 to beat Mayer (1 unit)

Bet lost
+€260.42

In retrospect, this game was a very poor call.

Raskolnikov wrote:

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

The young Turk looking good here, just won the first set 6-4, a little easier than the score suggested.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

Bet Lost

The kid fell apart in the last two sets. Sorry I didn't update sooner.

+€210.42

Generali Open

Calleri 9/10 to beat Massu (1 unit)

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Calleri 9/10 to beat Massu (1 unit)

Bet Won
+€255.42

My boy Calleri makes it 2/2 for me with a convincing win to put me back on track.

Goodluck2me

Raskolnikov wrote:

Baastad Open..

if theres a funnier name for a competition i am unaware of it!

Raskolnikov

In-play bet.

Generali Open.

Verdasco at 15/2 NOT to beat Lapentti 2-0 after Verdasco takes the first set 6-4 (1/2 unit).

Raskolnikov

Verdasco breaks Lapentti straight away, 6-4, 2-0. :mad:

Still, was worth a bash.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Verdasco breaks Lapentti straight away, 6-4, 2-0. :mad:

Still, was worth a bash.

Broken again, 4-0

Raskolnikov

Play suspended briefly, streaker on court.

5-1 now to Verdasco, bah.

Have a few picks for the US Open, the favourite at the moment is Federer who's at 3/5 to win, the value lies elsewhere chaps.

Paddy Irishman

Just wondering Raskolnikov if you ever trade tennis matches as opposed to placing outright bets, it seems to be the way most exchange punters bet on tennis these days?

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Verdasco at 15/2 NOT to beat Lapentti 2-0 after Verdasco takes the first set 6-4 (1/2 unit).

Bet Lost
+€230.42

Lapentti looses 6-4, 6-4 despite a gallant comeback in the second set from 5-1 down.

Paddy Irishman wrote:

Just wondering Raskolnikov if you ever trade tennis matches as opposed to placing outright bets, it seems to be the way most exchange punters bet on tennis these days?

Indeed I do trade matches (10% of the time), however for the purposes of this thread it's not really possible unless I want to leave myself open to accusations of after-timing. The reason I tend to stick to outright betting is because

• It's less risky
• It's less time consuming
• I pick the price
• It's something I know
• It works for me

If the conditions are right though, I will get involved in trading a match (eg. Dimitry Tursunov loses the first set and is a break down in the second).

imalegend

ok whats the call for this week??

Raskolnikov

Toronto Masters

Murray 3/5 to beat Henman (2 units), I got my odds at Pinnacle earlier today, price is shortening as we speak though.

Murray on decent form coming into this and the hard court will suit him. Henman was recently demolished by Tursunov (a volatile big serving player who I'd consider akin to Murray) with only a couple of matches played in the last few weeks. Going with two units on this as it reflects my confidence in the outcome.

Raskolnikov

Tiger Tim being demolished in this battle of Britain.

1-0 to Murray. One to go my lad.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Toronto Masters

Murray 3/5 to beat Henman (2 units), I got my odds at Pinnacle earlier today, price is shortening as we speak though.

Bet Won
+€290.42

Murray over powers Henman in the first set easily, but makes heavy work of the second set, blowing a 5-2 lead. Luckily, he brings the bacon home.

As a side note to betfairians here. A little tip on me. Watch out for that lad Andy Murray. Once his match goes in-play. Lay him at 1.01. Obviously it won't get matched straight away but you'll be near the front of the queue if he does. Then watch him blow what ever lead he has, his price will shoot up Just don't get too greedy!

I've been neglecting my tipping duties as of late, I'll make sure to rectify this.

Raskolnikov

Tursunov @ 5/2 to beat Haas in the Toronto Masters.

Match has just started so I can't include this as a tip

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Tursunov @ 5/2 to beat Haas in the Toronto Masters.

Match has just started so I can't include this as a tip

Turnsuov romps home in the third set to win 2-1 in sets. This was a huge shock to the betfair market After Haas levelled the match 1-1, the market was convinced Haas would go on to win it.

Since I only got a chance to post this after the match had started (Tursunov hadn't even held the first game by the way), I won't be counting it as a win in this thread.

Bateman

I had a bit of a result last night on the Henman-Murray match. Layed Murray at 1.02 at 4-1 in the second, Tiger Tim came back to make it 5-5, and Murray was then available to back at 1.37. Get in!

Mezcita

Raskolnikov, not sure you will see this in time but what do you think about Johansson to beat Malisse in Rogers Cup 3rd Rnd this evening?

Johansson is coming back from injury but his record against Malisse is 4-1. Got him at 5/4 on Stan James.

Raskolnikov

Mezcita wrote:

Johansson is coming back from injury but his record against Malisse is 4-1. Got him at 5/4 on Stan James.

Malisse is one of the most unpredictable players on the ATP tour, there really is no telling what the outcome will be with him. Form especially goes out the window (which is a good thing because he's actually been doing well as of late). However, despite Johansson's record, I would still have Malisse as the slight favourite here. So I reckon the odds you've got on Malisse would be about right. If I was pushed on this, I would go for Johansson to win 2-0, I imagine you could get 4/1 or 5/1 on it, if Malisse collapses, he'll do it spectacularily

Mezcita

Excellent. Thanks for the info.

Raskolnikov

Here's a wild one for you guys. Obviously Federer is easily the favourite here but I simply can't say no to such a ridiculous price. You'll only get this at pinnacle.com, betfair have 27/1 at the moment only.

Toronto Masters

Tursunov @ 31/1 to beat Federer (1/4 unit)

Here's my saver on the bet . . .

Federer @ 9/2 NOT to win 2-0 in sets (3/4 unit)

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Tursunov @ 31/1 to beat Federer (1/4 unit)

Bet Lost

The FedExpress rumbles on after a 2-1 win.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Federer @ 9/2 NOT to win 2-0 in sets (3/4 unit)

Bet Won

Tursunov manages to nick a set before getting demolished.

+€446.67 profit.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Malisse is one of the most unpredictable players on the ATP tour, there really is no telling what the outcome will be with him. Form especially goes out the window (which is a good thing because he's actually been doing well as of late). However, despite Johansson's record, I would still have Malisse as the slight favourite here. So I reckon the odds you've got on Malisse would be about right. If I was pushed on this, I would go for Johansson to win 2-0, I imagine you could get 4/1 or 5/1 on it, if Malisse collapses, he'll do it spectacularily

Malisse won 2-0 although the result was flattering to Malisse, unlucky mate.

Mezcita

Ah sure no worries. Had a bit on Derry to beat Gretna which eased the pain a wee bit.

Raskolnikov

Back with a vengence.

New Haven Open

Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 6/5 to beat Christophe Rochus. (1 unit)

Awful player on awful form. Has a midget brother who also plays tennis. Needs I say more?

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 6/5 to beat Christophe Rochus. (1 unit)

Bet Won

Bit of a scare in the second set when Rochus went a break up :eek: Ruebenio held him off thought to win 2-0.

Plays for the US Open coming up tonight.

Raskolnikov

+506.67

I'll have 1 unit of US Open picks before the draw is made and another 1 unit after the draw

westtip

Nice thread, I made a few quid on in play in Wimbledon but not really got involved much in tennis betting, 10 points profit in less than two months and I think only on 12.5 points turnover, well done, and exceptional 80% Profit on Turnover, is this a purple patch or your norm!! be honest now.


I like your style with some of those saver bets, nice drip drip drip of profit. Will be looking out for this in future.

Bateman

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed. Nothing jumping out at me, although I will keep an eye out for Max Mirnyi in the next round after he obliged yesterday.

Raskolnikov

Bateman wrote:

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed.

Davydenko got creamed last year by Chela 2-1 in the second round (he received a bye for the first round). However, evens isn't a bad price at all. I would consider backing him to win 2-1 in sets, will take a look at the prices when I get home from work.

Bateman

Raskolnikov wrote:

Davydenko got creamed last year by Chela 2-1 in the second round (he received a bye for the first round). However, evens isn't a bad price at all. I would consider backing him to win 2-1 in sets, will take a look at the prices when I get home from work.

If I had bf in work I wouldn't do a tap all day.

Raskolnikov

First pick for the US Open!

David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit) (betfair.com, the bricks and mortar bookies offering as little as 30/1 on him )

Absolutely massive price for the Argentinian here considering that he's no. 4 seed and won't come up against Federer, Nadal or Ljubicic until the semi-finals at least. Now, assuming that Bandy can make it to the semi-finals and the other seed (Nadal) does likewise, I would actually fancy Bandy. Rafael has proven himself to be the clay court king, however it's a different situation on hard courts. Not to mention, he's looked a little out of sorts as of late. Of course, Bandy has been in terrible form as of late, however, I expect him to ramp up the standard for this years last Major.

Raskolnikov

Bateman wrote:

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed. Nothing jumping out at me, although I will keep an eye out for Max Mirnyi in the next round after he obliged yesterday.

Haha, The Racing Post get it wrong AGAIN, Davydenko crushed Clement in straight sets.

Incidently, I see someone just got 119/1 in Nalbanian for the US Open, an absolutely stonking price. You ought to stick €4 up at 120 Bateman! You'll be able to trade out of it later on for lots less.

westtip

Raskol, can you really see past Fedex in the US barring injury?

Raskolnikov

westtip wrote:

Raskol, can you really see past Fedex in the US barring injury?

U.S. Open draw here.

Federer's first match is against the youngster Yeu-Tzuoo Wang. A banker win for Fed.

His second match will be against Rudeski or Henman. I reckon Rudeski could edge Henman out here. Whoever Fed gets, another banker win.

The most likely opponent for his third match would be Jonas Bjorkman, you may remember Federer crushing him emphatically at Wimbledon. I don't see other possible opponents; Gilles Muller or Vincent Spadea posing any threat at all. Banker win Fed.

Fourth match is where things become a little less clear cut. I would think Fed's likely opponents would be either Gaston Gaudio, Sam Querrey or JC Ferrero. Gaudio has a fairly weak service, he's a clay courter and he's not getting any younger. All these factors will mitigate against him and if Fed plays him, it'll be a banker win. I rate Querrey as a future top 20 player at least, I reckon. Big serve, good attitude, however, he ain't good enough to beat Fed. Banker win for Fed. Lastly, we have former world no. 1 JCF. This guy was proclaimed as the next hot thing in tennis a few years back, rather like Nadal is being now. I thought he was reclaiming some of that former quality in Cincy recently, that was until Andy Roddick made a mug out of him in the finals. Even at his old best, I doubt he could beat Feds on hard courts. Banker Fed.

Fifth match takes us into the quarter finals. Obviously, there's no such thing as a banker but this is the stage where Federer could realistically lose. I see Dimitri Tursunov, Tomas Berdych and James Blake as being his likely opponents. Tursunov and Berdych I reckon would be dispatched without too much difficulty. Blake is a different kettle of fish however. He has the capability of playing some beautiful tennis like when he defeat Nadal earlier this Summer in straight sets. However, he has absolutely rotten form coming into this. I doubt he has the skill to beat Fed, however, if he gets to this stage, I'd certainly expect him to give the Fed Express a run for its money.

Things get far too difficult to speculate once you get to the semi finals stage. Assuming the Fed Express doesn't get derailed at this moment, I shall probably be laying him. Lots of possible good players he could be up against like my boy Bandy, Andy Murray, Robby Ginepri and Tommy Haas. After that it's Ljubicic, Nadal, Davydenko, Robredo, Hewitt, etc in the final. So I'll let you make the decsion on that

westtip

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Fedex owes me nothing, his first wimbledon win was a big win for me and since then he has wrapped up quite a few long term acca bets for me on the green lawns of South London in June. Like you I certainly think he will make the semis and have backed him to win with the intention of laying at that stage for an arb, and probably a modest profit. I backed him to win every match at Wimbledon 3-0, always laying once he had won the first set - up to the final, which I left alone. It worked well. He is such a talent.

Raskolnikov

westtip wrote:

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Fedex owes me nothing, his first wimbledon win was a big win for me and since then he has wrapped up quite a few long term acca bets for me on the green lawns of South London in June. Like you I certainly think he will make the semis and have backed him to win with the intention of laying at that stage for an arb, and probably a modest profit. I backed him to win every match at Wimbledon 3-0, always laying once he had won the first set - up to the final, which I left alone. It worked well. He is such a talent.

I would say that Nadal would be a better prospect to back to be honest. His quarter of the draw is here, I reckon it's quite favourable and if he plays to this seasons form he'll make the semi's easy. Another reason to back him? He can't play Fed until the finals. Infact, I'm even going to put my money where my mouth is and back him myself. Will go digging for prices later.

As a side note to anyone else looking to place an outright bet on the U.S. Open, take a look at the third section of the draw (http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/r1s3.html). It's an absolute stinker! Only one from Baghdatis, Hewitt, Roddick, Djokovic, Gasquet and Ljubicic can progress. Not to mention Agassi, Lopez and Fish being in there. Unless you're super confident, I'd avoid an outright bet in this 'Group of Death'.

Raskolnikov

Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Raskolnikov

U.S. Open

Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).
Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

+€356.67

Raskolnikov

Just updating before things kick off over at Flushing Meadows. Have the massive sum of €275 riding on different bets at this stage, this is the most I've ever gambled before so as you can imagine, I'm rather apprehensive! At least if I make a loss, it'll only be money that I've won, rather than my own cash! Hopefully Hrbaty can get me off to a good start when he kicks off in a min.

U.S. Open

Marat Safin @ 1/2 NOT to win 3-0 against Robin Vik (1 unit)
Felicano Lopez @ 4/1 to beat Ivan Ljubicic (1/2 unit)
Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).
Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

Outright

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

+€231.67 :eek:

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Felicano Lopez @ 4/1 to beat Ivan Ljubicic (1/2 unit)

Bet Won

Lopez produces the first major shock of the tournament, dispatching no. 3 seed Ivan Ljubicic quite easily!

Raskolnikov wrote:

Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).

Bet Lost

I'm super disapointed that Hrbaty lost this one, I got a great little price on him and all.

+€346.67 (€200 of bets to settle though). If I get to €600+ I'll be extremely happy!

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Marat Safin @ 1/2 NOT to win 3-0 against Robin Vik (1 unit)

Bet Won

Safin wins 3-1.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Progress to the next round. . .

Dimitry Tursunov @ 549/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit) (betfair.com)

+€396.67

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

Bet Lost

Rusedski crushed, 3-0, boo.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Dimitry Tursunov @ 549/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

All progress to Round 2, no chances to trade on this yet . . .

+€406.67

Half tempted to throw the lot of Federer beating Henman Instead, I'll probably lay the FedExpress beating Henman 3-0 if I can get a good price. Am considering the same bet for Nadal against Horna. Can see a good price on Hernych against Hewitt, even though I backed Hewitt, I think it's a great price . . .

westtip

Can't see henman taking a set off Fedex, can you? Is it worth the risk currently 1.30 available to lay on betfair. doing an in play might be while - back FEDex to win 3-0 at 1.29 and then lay it when Fedex wins first set and the price will have vanished to about 1.05...........

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Out in the second and third rounds respectively.

Will see can I hedge my bet with Hewitt, will leave the Nadal bet ride for another round I think.