Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Property Bubble Going to Burst?

Options
1235

Comments

  • Options
    #122
    super_furry
    Registered Users Posts: 27,322 ✭✭✭✭super_furry


    I'd say from mid-2011 for at least a couple of years.


  • Options
    #123
    magma69
    Registered Users Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭magma69


    Goes to show nobody really knows what's around the corner. Predictions in economics don't mean jack. So many scoffed at the idea bubble bursting.


  • Options
    #124
    ScumLord
    Registered Users Posts: 28,789 ✭✭✭✭ScumLord


    WindSock wrote: »
    Hindsight is a wonderful thing...
    It's not hindsight, from the very beginning we where warned at home and abroad. It was the most likely outcome, it was guaranteed to happen.


  • Options
    #125
    itarumaa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭itarumaa


    Most sadest thing about this house bubble is that houses are not even well built or good standard, and still you had to pay loads of money of them.

    Only to lose about 50% or more of the value couple years later.


  • Options
    #126
    Clanket
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,087 ✭✭✭Clanket


    I've been looking at house prices the last couple of weeks on myhome and am shocked at the prices still being quoted. Granted, if you were to make an offer you would probably get a large dicount. However, in certain areas to be asking for €550k - €600k for a 4 bed house. Madness.

    To me a standard house is never ever ever gonna be worth more than €400k. Ever


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #127
    ScumLord
    Registered Users Posts: 28,789 ✭✭✭✭ScumLord


    itarumaa wrote: »
    Most sadest thing about this house bubble is that houses are not even well built or good standard, and still you had to pay loads of money of them.
    The only plus side I can see to that is that there's plenty of work in fixing them. whether people will have money to fix the problems is another thing.

    Most will need to be replaced within our lifetimes at any rate. So they're completely dead money. All those houses waiting around with nobody in them are probably close to unlivable at the moment due to damp ruining the house so they're dead money too.


  • Options
    #128
    Meeja Ireland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭Meeja Ireland


    brianwalshcork wrote: »
    That's 20/20 hindsight folks. Predicting the future is more difficult. Anyone care to guess the date that the price for the average 3 bed semi D wiill be lowest?

    9th of March 2012. Set your alarm now, and I'll see you in two years.


  • Options
    #129
    bazmaiden
    Registered Users Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭bazmaiden


    Is Miss Fluff George Lee?


  • Options
    #130
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    What's interesting about the first page of this thread is how articulate, and well written, were the arguments in favour of property being fairly valued at the time. There is no text speak, or theres/theirs mixed up, or bad punctuation.

    I didn't believe a word of it back then, but plenty of intelligent people did. People, even intelligent people, believe what they want to believe.


  • Options
    #131
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Pittens wrote: »
    What's interesting about the first page of this thread is how articulate, and well written, were the arguments in favour of property being fairly valued at the time. There is no text speak, or theres/theirs mixed up, or bad punctuation.

    I didn't believe a word of it back then, but plenty of intelligent people did. People, even intelligent people, believe what they want to believe.

    People didn't believe it in 98, 00, 02 or early 06 either.

    There definitely was an element of being proved right all the time and that fed it as well. Property crashes happen all the time and Governments and plenty of economists never see it coming.

    I was late enough seeing it, the last big push on prices in early 06 and the prices Dunne et al were paying sealed it for me.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #132
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    brianwalshcork wrote: »
    That's 20/20 hindsight folks. Predicting the future is more difficult. Anyone care to guess the date that the price for the average 3 bed semi D wiill be lowest?

    Based on previous housing booms in the UK, 5-7 years from peak, but Ireland is different and so is this crash - it's going to be more equivalent to the US stock market crash of 1929 which took the stock market 25 years or so to reach the same point.

    The Eurozone will not tolerate inflation!

    House prices will continue to fall for at least another two years, but in parts of the midlands some houses will fall (both prices & structure) indefinately. Decent suburban houses will stop falling in price the first, then if the banks retain strict lending rules will rise in line with inflation & wages.


  • Options
    #133
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    its not just hindsight, anyone could see that prices could not rise forever, not when incomes were not going up in the same way, it was not possible, in the same way as they will not fall forever they will rise, or that they will never reach a point where they stay perfectly stable.


  • Options
    #134
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 82,048 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    y2k, etc.


  • Options
    #135
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Overheal wrote: »
    y2k, etc.

    Y2k, was a nut of unknown size that was cracked with the largest sledgehammer available! The risk was real and eliminated.

    How many potential disasters were averted is unknown - there are several trivial issues that occured on systems that did not get Y2k'd, like calendars displaying Jan 1 19100.

    As for housing, The warning signs were there, but ignored by the government and their supporters who gained the most from appreciating values.


  • Options
    #136
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Based on previous housing booms in the UK, 5-7 years from peak, but Ireland is different and so is this crash - it's going to be more equivalent to the US stock market crash of 1929 which took the stock market 25 years or so to reach the same point.

    The Eurozone will not tolerate inflation!

    House prices will continue to fall for at least another two years, but in parts of the midlands some houses will fall (both prices & structure) indefinately. Decent suburban houses will stop falling in price the first, then if the banks retain strict lending rules will rise in line with inflation & wages.

    Indeed, location, location, location is and will increasingly become more important as time goes on.

    I think a lot of people believed the soft landing crap and never expected prices to go back to 05 levels and still dropping. I can see 01/02 levels myself.

    It could get even worse than that!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Options
    #137
    Firetrap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,442 ✭✭✭Firetrap


    One thing one can draw from this thread is that you should never take advice from an internet thread :D

    It is a fascinating insight into the pre-recession mindset though.


  • Options
    #138
    fontanalis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭fontanalis


    Who else feels confident that the knowledge economy will save the country?


  • Options
    #139
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    K-9 wrote: »
    Indeed, location, location, location is and will increasingly become more important as time goes on.

    I can see 01/02 levels myself.

    Only in the best locations though, many areas will fall below construction costs.


  • Options
    #140
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    fontanalis wrote: »
    Who else feels confident that the knowledge economy will save the country?

    Only if the knowledge stays here and creates manufacturing/development jobs, right now the best prospects for graduates is at the other end of a long journey.


  • Options
    #141
    fontanalis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭fontanalis


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Only if the knowledge stays here and creates manufacturing/development jobs, right now the best prospects for graduates is at the other end of a long journey.

    I was referring to the "knowledge" in the first few pages of the post.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #142
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    fontanalis wrote: »
    I was referring to the "knowledge" in the first few pages of the post.

    OK :o

    Those that believed in infinate growth based on the recent past and bought property hoping to profit, will now be in serious debt and effectivly "tied" for a good number of years to come.

    They would most likely be keeping their heads down!


  • Options
    #143
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    Have most of the pro-property believers banished from this site? I noticed that MorningStar disappeared around 2006 ( which was before the crash but not related). He was adamant that prices were at their correct value.


  • Options
    #144
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Only in the best locations though, many areas will fall below construction costs.

    Many already have, if you count land as construction costs.

    I seen 100k for a 1 bed apartment in the Indo and 150k for a 2 bed just a few weeks ago. This was North Dublin. Must have been a firesale and probably liquidation.

    If that site was bought in the last 4/5 years, barely covers land acquisition costs.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Options
    #145
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    K-9 wrote: »
    Many already have, if you count land as construction costs.

    There was a time when new houses were always more expensive*, and secondhand houses were price matched to the equivilant new house minus cost of refurbishment.

    *but much cheaper than now, 3.5 x average skilled income.


  • Options
    #146
    Alessandra
    Registered Users Posts: 1,276 ✭✭✭Alessandra


    At least in places like Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway there is always demand for property to buy or rent.

    I'm from the West and each time I go home I am staggered to see estates with 20-30 houses lying empty. People stopped coming to work here and many more people moved back to their own country as it was never their intention to stay so the supply outweighs the demand. Nobody has ever moved into these houses and they are lying empty and probably time will pass by and nobody will ever want to live there no matter how cheap the prices now are.

    It's a sad sight to see homes which are near completion lying idle. I imagine they will just rot away with time. It's such a waste of money.


  • Options
    #147
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Alessandra wrote: »
    At least in places like Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway there is always demand for property to buy or rent.

    I'm from the West and each time I go home I am staggered to see estates with 20-30 houses lying empty. People stopped coming to work here and many more people moved back to their own country as it was never their intention to stay so the supply outweighs the demand. Nobody has ever moved into these houses and they are lying empty and probably time will pass by and nobody will ever want to live there no matter how cheap the prices now are.

    It's a sad sight to see homes which are near completion lying idle. I imagine they will just rot away with time. It's such a waste of money.

    Yep. NAMA will have to decide is it better to knock estates like that and convert them back to agricultural use, which maybe more valuable long term.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Options
    #148
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    K-9 wrote: »
    Yep. NAMA will have to decide is it better to knock estates like that and convert them back to agricultural use, which maybe more valuable long term.

    Converting land back to agricultural use as in cultivation aill be quite expensive as the foundations would need to be removed to avoid damaging farm implaments etc.

    Pasture or forestry use would be much cheaper, or simple abandonment remove hazardous materials and let nature run it's course.


  • Options
    #149
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Converting land back to agricultural use as in cultivation aill be quite expensive as the foundations would need to be removed to avoid damaging farm implaments etc.

    Pasture or forestry use would be much cheaper, or simple abandonment remove hazardous materials and let nature run it's course.

    Agreed. There are certain areas that mad as it seems, that could well be the best option!


    Good point on forestry, never thought of that.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Options
    #150
    Caoimhín
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,789 ✭✭✭Caoimhín


    K-9 wrote: »
    Good point on forestry, never thought of that.

    Ground cultivation is required for commercial forestry but allowing the sites to return to scrub and eventually forest may be an option.

    I reckon salvage and demolition is the business to be in over the next few years.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #151
    The Pontiac
    Registered Users Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    K-9 wrote: »
    Yep. NAMA will have to decide is it better to knock estates like that and convert them back to agricultural use, which maybe more valuable long term.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    Converting land back to agricultural use as in cultivation aill be quite expensive as the foundations would need to be removed to avoid damaging farm implaments etc.

    Pasture or forestry use would be much cheaper, or simple abandonment remove hazardous materials and let nature run it's course.
    K-9 wrote: »
    Agreed. There are certain areas that mad as it seems, that could well be the best option!


    Good point on forestry, never thought of that.
    Caoimhín wrote: »
    Ground cultivation is required for commercial forestry but allowing the sites to return to scrub and eventually forest may be an option.

    I reckon salvage and demolition is the business to be in over the next few years.

    Is this really an option? It sounds mad to me to start knocking down the houses. Take a very small housing estate on one acre, consisting of a few houses valued at a minimum of €100,000 each - it would take literally hundreds of years to yield the same return by means of agriculture or forestry. I know the forestry premiums and grants wouldn't make this financially feasible. And agriculture isn't exactly an industry that's making huge financial returns either, with many farmers struggling to even make a living from it.

    Has this happened in other countries? It seems completely bonkers to me..


Advertisement