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Property Market 2020

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    #8312
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    cnocbui wrote: »
    ......
    I think Warren Buffet and some of the other old hands who are still sitting on hundreds of billions in their expectation of a 'sane' market falling to 30% of pre-covid levels and allowing them to hoover up massive, massive bargains, have miscalculated. At least I hope so, as their greed nauseates me a bit.

    Didn't they dive in when the market dipped 30%..


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    #8313
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,263 ✭✭✭wassie


    Exactly. Probably not the best exemplar given Berkshire Hathaway aren't known for hoovering bargains, but rather buying great businesses at fair prices. The post shows no understanding of value investing.

    And Warren Buffet would probably be one of the most humble billionaires on the planet.


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    #8314
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    fergiesfolly wrote: »
    Does anyone think that this will have an impact on property prices..
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/property-sales-to-plummet-by-up-to-50-due-to-covid-19-crisis-1002982.html

    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Don't really think it tells us anything to be honest.

    Its basically saying transactions will be down 40% -50% which is quite logical when the market has been effectively closed for months during what I imagine is a usually busy time of year (Jan - exemptions, summer - prime buying season). And once we are back, viewings will need to abide by social distancing norms leading to reduced numbers per viewing.

    Lots of click-bait articles floating around unfortunately, very little fact based articles.

    From what I understand they talk about 40%-50% transactions down over year term, on 2019 vs 2020. Which doesn't sound logical, but exaggerated, I don't think they did a proper analysis.


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    #8315
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,678 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    wassie wrote: »
    Exactly. Probably not the best exemplar given Berkshire Hathaway aren't known for hoovering bargains, but rather buying great businesses at fair prices. The post shows no understanding of value investing.

    And Warren Buffet would probably be one of the most humble billionaires on the planet.

    Yeah, right:
    "Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do."
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-every-decade-dark-142314188.html
    As a result, Berkshire is now sitting on roughly $125 billion in cash and short-term investments that can be readily deployed as bargains emerge on the market. You can't be greedy when others are fearful, after all, if you don't have any money to invest. Buffett capitalized similarly during the financial crisis when he had about $38 billion in cash and made big, well-timed investments in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. During September and October of 2008, he made $15 billion in investments.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/warren-buffetts-4-rules-for-investing-in-a-bear-market/ar-BB116noI

    Experts, including Buffet, are very strong on the notion that you can't time the market bottoms and tops, so I have been out there with my teaspoon, along with many others, pumping the price up.


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    #8316
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,678 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Augeo wrote: »
    Didn't they dive in when the market dipped 30%..

    No, that wasn't enough for them and they are predicting another dip when the market finally realises how badly many companies will be affected and how long the recovery will take. I get the impression they were expecting to be waiting a year or more.

    They are like those expecting big falls in house prices next year and are waiting for that. Very strong similarity in the two situations.


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    #8317
    errlloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 12,600 ✭✭✭✭errlloyd


    My mortgage advisor told me that none of the lenders are currently granting Loan to Income exemptions? Is that everyone else's experience?


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    #8318
    bulmersgal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,174 ✭✭✭bulmersgal


    errlloyd wrote: »
    My mortgage advisor told me that none of the lenders are currently granting Loan to Income exemptions? Is that everyone else's experience?

    Yeah that's what my broker told me last week.


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    #8319
    James 007
    Registered Users Posts: 962 ✭✭✭James 007


    Guess whos back, back again:rolleyes:

    The two bed at €200k seems reasonable for the location

    Interesting two properties just 10mins from each other, €100k difference between the two, one clearly has that better address.

    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/glasnevin/apartment-13-tolka-vale-finglas-road-glasnevin-dublin-2535573/

    Current Bid - No offers

    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/glasnevin/apartment-22-clonmore-court-glasnevin-dublin-2286571/

    Current Bid - €270k


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    #8320
    cunnifferous
    Registered Users Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭cunnifferous


    bulmersgal wrote: »
    Yeah that's what my broker told me last week.

    Yep that's what mine told me too. I think because all of a sudden the amount of loans they are giving out in going to be greatly reduced, it means they might be already be exceeding the number of exemptions that they are permitted.


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    #8321
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,367 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Plus, it would be pretty silly to give exemptions in a downward market.
    If you're giving a 4.5 LTI exemption to someone now, when next year (as many reports this morning are reading) the price may have fallen 10-20%, you're looking at possible 0 or negative equity... as well as potential affordability issues. In a market where we make it very difficult to reposess anyway. Not a good idea.


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    #8322
    TM2015
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭TM2015


    errlloyd wrote: »
    My mortgage advisor told me that none of the lenders are currently granting Loan to Income exemptions? Is that everyone else's experience?
    For sure. Got the AIP no problem but were told that to come back 6 months for an LTI exemption. High enough income, public/private sector but a need 4x salary exemption to allow us to purchase in the area we want.


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    #8323
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,394 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    TM2015 wrote: »
    For sure. Got the AIP no problem but were told that to come back 6 months for an LTI exemption. High enough income, public/private sector but a need 4x salary exemption to allow us to purchase in the area we want.

    The area you are lookingin may be less than 4X salary in a few months so hard to know if its a good thing or a bad thing.


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    #8324
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Just seen a house relisted, was up for €150k since xmas...removed mid April and relisted today after a tidy up...€175k:eek::eek::eek::eek:


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    #8325
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    UK prices falling as soon as the market was allowed to open.

    "UK house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009"

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1144889/


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    #8326
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,367 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Just seen a house relisted, was up for €150k since xmas...removed mid April and relisted today after a tidy up...€175k:eek::eek::eek::eek:


    Listing price is pretty irrelevant
    Looking at sold prices is where its at.


    How recent is the PPR?


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    #8327
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Listing price is pretty irrelevant
    Looking at sold prices is where its at.


    How recent is the PPR?

    Last property was over 3 years ago for nearly half the price, adjacent estates are seen are more desirable and going for 150k - 200k...but all these house are in need of cosmetic work and potentially updating of doors/windows & heating systems


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    #8328
    ShedTower
    Closed Accounts Posts: 92 ✭✭ShedTower


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Just seen a house relisted, was up for €150k since xmas...removed mid April and relisted today after a tidy up...€175k:eek::eek::eek::eek:

    Everyone will be looking for a discount. Now they can drop €25k off it.


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    #8329
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    ShedTower wrote: »
    Everyone will be looking for a discount. Now they can drop €25k off it.

    That exactly what i was thinking...offer the original list price...seller is happy and buyer thinks they got a bargain:D


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    #8330
    gourcuff
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭gourcuff


    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?


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    #8331
    TM2015
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭TM2015


    kippy wrote: »
    The area you are lookingin may be less than 4X salary in a few months so hard to know if its a good thing or a bad thing.
    Yeah we're just sitting tight as we're not under any pressure. It's Blackrock/Booterstown and the local market appears to be dead as a dodo. Saving a huge amount of extra money because of Covid so may not even need the exemption by the time anything decent appears.


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    #8332
    errlloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 12,600 ✭✭✭✭errlloyd


    gourcuff wrote: »
    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?

    I am a complete amateur (as we all are).

    But I suspect it'll never be quite as bad again. 2020 may well be the worst time to buy in this boom-bust cycle, but I don't think we will see massive, life ruinous drops.


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    #8333
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    gourcuff wrote: »
    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?

    I mean - doubtful. If you look back on this thread there was a discussion on how those who bought at he height of the last boom are now not badly off if you compaired it to having rented the whole time. They're almost halfway through their mortgages, mostly on trackers, and their repayments compair really favourably to what they'd be paying in rent for the same period.

    I'm talking of course about people who bought family homes during that time. If you bought a 1bed apt and then went on to have a family, then yes that would not have worked out well. But if you bought a house you never intend to leave, then a lot of people did alright in hindsight.

    I really don't think 2020 will be a doomsday scenario. Its going to be a deep recession on paper but if the govt don't implement austerity it won't feel half as bad as 2008. Yes we'll be paying it back for a long time, but hopefully at negligable rates.


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    #8334
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    errlloyd wrote: »
    I am a complete amateur (as we all are).

    But I suspect it'll never be quite as bad again. 2020 may well be the worst time to buy in this boom-bust cycle, but I don't think we will see massive, life ruinous drops.

    There really is nothing life ruinous about it.
    If you're buying- you're buying into a lower market.
    If you're selling- you're selling into a lower market and probably buying into a lower market somewhere else.
    If you're neither selling nor buying- its a roof over your head- and the nominal value of the property is immaterial.

    The bigger issue in all of this- is that lending dries up, and regardless of whether you're trying to buy, sell or simply exist on a day-to-day basis, cash is not available to do anything- and the economy gums up.

    Last time round we bailed out the banks.
    This time round- the Irish banks are in a far better position than last time- however, its still probable that they will simply call a halt on lending (or at very least tailor their lending to only give loans to the most secure of possibly borrowers.

    The bigger issue- is a lack of lending- prices going up and down- are normal, people not being able to borrow regardless of their circumstances, is not.


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    #8335
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,935 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    gourcuff wrote: »
    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?

    Not just early 2020 but throughout 2020 end and early 20201.....i posted few weeks back that actual realization of the impacts will take time to surface...no way anyone getting away with this whatever gov measures are taken....the QE being done in US and elsewhere needs to be paid by someone somewhere....time will tell who that would be...generally its taxpayers.


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    #8336
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    the QE being done in US and elsewhere needs to be paid by someone somewhere....time will tell who that would be...generally its taxpayers.

    Thats just it though. An increasing number of finance gurus are suggesting that no, it doesn't need to be repaid. This plays into the Trumpian economics- which includes setting the rule books on fire.

    If The Fed and others can simply print money- and inflation remains tame- the argument goes, why not keep printing money........

    Obviously, at some stage- someone somewhere will have to pay the piper- but for now- they're merrily printing away, and inflation is negligible.


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    #8337
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,365 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    gourcuff wrote: »
    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?

    Don't overly concern yourself with it. The fact is that the overwhelming majority of people do not get to buy at the best time. By definition it is impossible. The best time to buy is when the overwhelming majority cannot.

    Once you can afford the repayments then don't drive yourself crazy with these "what if" thoughts, get on with your life and enjoy it as much as you can.

    Someone, somewhere will always get a better deal than you.


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    #8338
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,935 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Thats just it though. An increasing number of finance gurus are suggesting that no, it doesn't need to be repaid. This plays into the Trumpian economics- which includes setting the rule books on fire.

    If The Fed and others can simply print money- and inflation remains tame- the argument goes, why not keep printing money........

    Obviously, at some stage- someone somewhere will have to pay the piper- but for now- they're merrily printing away, and inflation is negligible.

    What about actual impact on GDP ?


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    #8339
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    What about actual impact on GDP ?

    First off- looking at debt:GPD ratios- several EU countries are already totally ignoring the Debt:GDP ratios, despite the ominous threats from the ECB, the EU Commission and others (look at France- for example, Italy are the obvious villain and then you have the likes of Spain and Portugal (ignoring the comedian that is Greece)).

    The bigger issue- is for all those who hold all this paper (China and others). The US is getting away with daylight robbery of the rest of the world- because they are the default reserve currency (the Euro is only roughly 20-22% of reserve holdings).

    GDP itself is a lot resiliant than it has any right to be expected (especially in the context of the EU). Asset prices may be incredibly volatile, but in general, are more robust than fundamentals suggest they should be.

    Lots of things- just aren't supported by everything that is happening, or not happening- and the unknowns in the larger global economy do not seem to be priced into investors expectations.

    At the moment- the capital markets are drunk on QE. Wait until the taps are turned off, whenever that might be, then those who are weaker (be they sovereigns or whoever) will be pushed and pummeled by market forces.

    At the moment- nothing is real, no-one is looking at the bigger picture, people are pushing the boat out, further and further, and because they are getting away with it, imagine that its a 'new normal', when it very probably isn't- and a day of reckoning will eventually come..........


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    #8340
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,678 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    gourcuff wrote: »
    what are the chances early 2020 becomes the 2006,2007 in terms of absolute worst time to have bought a house?...

    moved from a one bed to our first house, so felt fortunate with lockdown etc...

    but wonder could this be viewed in years to come as a huge blunder in timing?

    Market cycles tend to be such a significant fraction of an average human lifespan that i think you should just get on with doing what you want, when you want/can and don't worry too much about whether you got a bargain or not.


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    #8341
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Thats just it though. An increasing number of finance gurus are suggesting that no, it doesn't need to be repaid. This plays into the Trumpian economics- which includes setting the rule books on fire.

    If The Fed and others can simply print money- and inflation remains tame- the argument goes, why not keep printing money........

    Obviously, at some stage- someone somewhere will have to pay the piper- but for now- they're merrily printing away, and inflation is negligible.

    If that's the playbook for the future anyone saving for a deposit should be buying gold rather than putting it in the bank.

    Sooner or later they won't need a mortgage at all!


This discussion has been closed.
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