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05-10-2018, 15:28   #1
veryangryman
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Budget 2019

Good time to start a thread on this?

So whats been confirmed/rumoured sofar and your opinions?

-> VAT rate for Tourism industry going up 2%
Good move, their emergency is long over. The sooner it is put to an apt rate, the better.
-> Fuel taxes increasing
A serious PITA, the Green party are back

Any others? I wonder if any income taxes are going up/down. Our VAT rate is ridiculous at 23% (an apparent temp measure), we should look to get it down to 20% or so, make us competitive with UK.
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05-10-2018, 16:41   #2
GSRNBP
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Rumour seems to be increase in 20% band, but a third band of 43% over €80,000. That seems to me to be a very low threshold for a third rate - individuals on €80k aren't exactly living the high life.
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05-10-2018, 17:25   #3
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Seems the HSE overran on budget by 700m, not sure what impact that will have on the budget.
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08-10-2018, 13:13   #4
KKV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GSRNBP View Post
Rumour seems to be increase in 20% band, but a third band of 43% over €80,000. That seems to me to be a very low threshold for a third rate - individuals on €80k aren't exactly living the high life.
Wish they'd leave the 20% bracket as is. If you're stuck in the 20% bracket then you're gonna miss every euro they take.

Wouldn't mind seeing that 43% sometime.
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08-10-2018, 13:20   #5
VinLieger
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While an income tax cut is a nice visual it really means F all in the long term. What we all really need is action by the government on reducing the cost of living, ie childcare, gas electricity costs, fuel hikes - both in taxes and the price of crude skyrocketing, insurance for health/car/house, public transport increases etc


Within the next year the constant rising cost of each of those, along with many others, will have outstripped the benefit of any income tax reduction for the vast majority of us.
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08-10-2018, 13:30   #6
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Letting the IA refuse an increase on diesel specifically is insane if true. The price differential and tax system are encouraging people to buy and drive more damaging vehicles based on a Green Party decision a decade ago that is now obviously wrong
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08-10-2018, 13:40   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veryangryman View Post
-> VAT rate for Tourism industry going up 2%
Good move, their emergency is long over. The sooner it is put to an apt rate, the better.
As crazy as it sounds to say it, I do think a certain amount of cooling in our tourism rate is necessary. As great as a booming tourism sector is, it's fighting with our housing crisis. Putting the dampers on short-term lets and hotels even just a little, might be necessary.

I'm hoping they foresight tomorrow to forward-plan. We're about to enter choppy waters; the housing market is cooling (could it dip again?), Brexit is coming, all indicators are for a worldwide slow-down being imminent; and we need to make a huge pivot on environmental issues.

No giveaway budget; maybe tweak the tax regime to be fairer without reducing the tax take, and pour surpluses into savings, capital investment and environmental issues.
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08-10-2018, 14:17   #8
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wasnt there a rumour of a new SSIA type scheme aimed at first time buyers? or did I imagine this?
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08-10-2018, 14:23   #9
Augeo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GSRNBP View Post
Rumour seems to be increase in 20% band..............
Quote:
Originally Posted by KKV View Post
Wish they'd leave the 20% bracket as is. If you're stuck in the 20% bracket then you're gonna miss every euro they take.

Wouldn't mind seeing that 43% sometime.
An increase in the 20% band in the sense that one would pay less tax is what's being rumoured
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08-10-2018, 14:47   #10
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Apparently the government are going with the line that this will be the first balanced budget in years:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...-tax-1.3654431

However, the Taoiseach suggests that the reason for this may be due to increased corporation taxes as a windfall due to a change in accounting procedures, and suggests that this windfall will not be repeated next year.

It's an interesting, if risky strategy for them, as there are no votes in a balanced budget or repaying debt, and there are massive demands for additional funding for housing and healthcare. Even with increased funding for both of these, labelling it as a balanced budget will give opposition parties an opportunity to point out that they could do more.

Sinn Fein have put forward a costed pre budget submission which would see them spending 3.5bn extra and raising taxes by 2.4bn, the largest of which would be taxing intellectual property rights which are currently tax free to raise 750bn extra per annum:

http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2018/Al...Budget2019.pdf

Sinn Fein don't quite say how much it will cost to build 10,000 new homes. If it is revenue neutral are they just going to implement the Government's existing plan with some modifications? They have costed 34.9m for housing, but this appears to be non house building matters such as homeless support, domestic violence shelters etc.

I would anticipate that FF will stick to their confidence and supply deal to get the budget through, but will be highly critical of the government in this budget afterwards. The strategy to be to see how the polls react to the budget and if FG drop dramatically they might end confidence and supply in favour of an election.

They have suggested that there would be 200m available for house building which is welcome, but is not nearly enough to provide the 4,000 homes they are suggesting would be built, amounting to some 50,000 per unit. Perhaps this is predicated on using existing state land to build on, but even still it sounds too small.

https://www.rte.ie/news/budget-2019/...4-budget-2019/

Further, FF are also suggesting tax reductions and increases in expenditure elsewhere.

So we have a government that is promising some small tax cuts, small expenditure increases and a balanced budget, which sounds very sensible but not very popular. Then we have a party promising large spending increases and, to be fair to them, this would be funded by increased taxes. Lastly we have a party who will in effect allow the government's budget through, but will criticse it for not providing more tax cuts and increasing spending, presumably to be based on borrowed money from the magic money tree.

Interesting times ahead.
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08-10-2018, 15:02   #11
abcabc123123
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Originally Posted by seamus View Post
As crazy as it sounds to say it, I do think a certain amount of cooling in our tourism rate is necessary. As great as a booming tourism sector is, it's fighting with our housing crisis. Putting the dampers on short-term lets and hotels even just a little, might be necessary.
I don't think it's crazy at all. There isn't much of it here but across Europe there's a lot of discussion about the need to make tourism more sustainable. Europe is the primary destination for international travel and the tourism industry is forecast to grow by 40% in the next decade. A lot of the cities and towns on the Mediterranean are basically historical theme parks for tourists now and residents are rightly unhappy about it. Dublin will go the same way eventually unless it is managed better.
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08-10-2018, 17:00   #12
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https://www.rte.ie/news/budget-2019/...udget-outline/

So welfare payments up almost as much as the combined effect of changes to income tax and USC

Such a token change that the vast majority won't even notice it. The lad on 70k will be a whopping €275 a year better off. And that's as good as it gets.

Quote:
The 4.75% rate of the USC will cut to 4.5%. It will effect more than one million workers and will cost more than €100m. The 4.75% rate of USC is paid on income over €19,372 and below €70,044.

The point at which people hit the 40% higher rate of income tax will rise by €750 to €35,300. It is currently €34,550.
What's the point? Nothing inventive. Just more of the same.

Looking after 'the squeezed middle' my hole.

Last edited by lawred2; 08-10-2018 at 17:05.
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08-10-2018, 17:40   #13
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If you would like a night-time fairy tale, here is some appropriate reading.


http://www.pbp.ie/people-before-prof...get-statement/


The nonsense in this alternative budget statement makes some of the stuff on these boards appear rational.

PBP believe that the State can build housing for €138,095.

Free public transport for everyone will only cost €580m. Yeah, but you won't be able to get on a bus or a train.

I wonder have they had these proposals costed by the Department of Finance.
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08-10-2018, 19:22   #14
For Forks Sake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blanch152 View Post
If you would like a night-time fairy tale, here is some appropriate reading.


http://www.pbp.ie/people-before-prof...get-statement/


The nonsense in this alternative budget statement makes some of the stuff on these boards appear rational.

PBP believe that the State can build housing for €138,095.

Free public transport for everyone will only cost €580m. Yeah, but you won't be able to get on a bus or a train.

I wonder have they had these proposals costed by the Department of Finance.
I got as far as point 1 :
Quote:
Invest an additional €2.9 billion to build public and affordable housing on public land – in 2019, this would provide 21,000 extra homes.
That's a flat-out lie. They do know that houses take time to build right (and that's not even factoring in the planning process, which their acolytes on local councils seem to object to for the most spurious of reasons)

The rest of it reads like it was composed on the back of a beermat.
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08-10-2018, 20:09   #15
KKV
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Originally Posted by Augeo View Post
An increase in the 20% band in the sense that one would pay less tax is what's being rumoured

Ah, so it's meant in the sense that you can earn more money whilst only paying 20%, rather than the sense I thought it was (the 20% itself was being increase, to, say, 21% or 22%).


In that case i'd agree with others on here - leave it alone. Much like the OAP increase last year, you're giving so little to so few, that very few will value it, many will feel insulted by it ( ) and at the end of the day it's money that would be much better in government pockets (much as it kills me to say that).


If I can walk away from this budget with a few thousand euro in my pocket each year, it's worth it to me, personally. But If I'm only benefiting by one or two hundred euro, then it's not much money to me on a personal level, and would be better off being pooled with the other 100-200 other people would have gotten and being spent on something useful.

(not sure if the point I'm trying to make is legible or not).
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