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16-03-2018, 20:16   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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St Patrick's Weekend Snow Risk - Technical Discussion Only - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

MOD NOTE

This thread is for Technical Discussion Only - for everything else use the event chat thread Off topic posts will be moved there.

It’s also a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling, flaming and personal abuse.

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with Troublesome Posters/Trolls and thread-spoiling

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"Event" thread here.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2057851222

Last edited by Lumi; 17-03-2018 at 04:35. Reason: Mod note added
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16-03-2018, 20:33   #2
M.T. Cranium
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North German radar loop gives an idea what Irish Sea might produce ...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/rean...5&h=1&nmaps=32

remember Baltic is close to 1 C, Irish Sea 6 to 8 C. North Sea now 2 to 6 C in the sector likely to be upwind from Ireland.

Gusts to 107 km/hr at Arkona (the northern point of eastern Germany).

The snow further south was produced by an eastward-moving wave on the arctic front and is not part of the forecast scenario.
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16-03-2018, 20:35   #3
thomasj
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I'm having problems with that link MT.

Edit: got it working on the desktop site seems to be problems from the old app

Last edited by thomasj; 16-03-2018 at 20:39.
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16-03-2018, 20:36   #4
Kermit.de.frog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post

Gusts to 107 km/hr at Arkona (the northern point of eastern Germany).
Convective gusts? Pretty much confirms the drifting risk...
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16-03-2018, 20:42   #5
Neddyusa
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Convective gusts? Pretty much confirms the drifting risk...
Was just going to ask:
What are forecast windspeeds for Sat night/Sun relative to the last time?

It was the drifting that caused all the disruption on roads here rather than the amount of snow on the Tuesday - Thursday of the last spell.
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16-03-2018, 20:43   #6
Calibos
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Convective gusts? Pretty much confirms the drifting risk...
Ah Jaysus, dont tell me strong winds are going to both blow the streamers over me too quickly and carry salty sea spray aloft over me onto Bray Seafront and environs ruining any chance I have of more than 5cm of accumulation like they did with Emma?? Say it aint So?
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16-03-2018, 20:49   #7
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Harmonie showing some sweet spots getting 20-30cm, more generally Leinster 5-15. All streamer line dependent
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16-03-2018, 20:51   #8
kittyn
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@Weathercheck ....... So where roughly are these sweet spots?
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16-03-2018, 20:53   #9
sdanseo
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@Weathercheck ....... So where roughly are these sweet spots?
About as easy to forecast as the winning lotto numbers at this point.
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16-03-2018, 20:55   #10
highdef
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@Weathercheck ....... So where roughly are these sweet spots?
In reality, these sweet spots are very much nowcast scenarios. They are virtually impossible to forecast with any sort of accuracy. I managed almost 20cm during daylight hours on the Wednesday of the recent snowy spell. Yet places less than 10km away for hardly anything. That was pure luck for me and could not be forecasted.
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16-03-2018, 20:56   #11
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Some places getting a good dumping from streamers. Probably should be Red Alert in areas but impossible to tell where yet untill they form.





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16-03-2018, 21:25   #12
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This is the atmosphere profile for Sunday midday showing
the 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and temperature at 850 hPa (shading) from the ECM



Attached Images
File Type: png 500hpa geopotential&850hpatemps.png (203.8 KB, 3724 views)
File Type: png 850 temps.png (2.7 KB, 3463 views)

Last edited by Mount Vesuvius; 16-03-2018 at 21:30.
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16-03-2018, 21:40   #13
gabeeg
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This is the atmosphere profile for Sunday midday showing
the 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and temperature at 850 hPa (shading) from the ECM
Curvier the better, right?
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16-03-2018, 21:56   #14
Artane2002
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Is this fax chart showing the possibility of heavy, persistent snow clipping the south coast on Sunday? I could be reading this wrong but it looks like a convergence zone to me? This is where two air masses meet causing very heavy precipitation I think. The Boscastle floods of 2004 were caused by a convergence zone from what I've read on Netweather. Professional help would be appreciated. Credit to supernova on Netweather for the image.

Last edited by Artane2002; 16-03-2018 at 22:00.
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16-03-2018, 22:08   #15
Mount Vesuvius
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@Gabeeg
Position of trough in upper atmosphere at noon. These steer what's underneath so I'm expecting lots of activity especially around 6am Sunday. Instability over Irish sea helping to bolster up some streamers
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