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19-01-2018, 11:15   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Saturday / Sunday : snow-Ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

On Saturday morning a rouge warm front ahead of the real warm front for Sunday will attempt to make inroads in to the colder air. It will fall short over the country and slide southeast but in doing so it will bring snowfall for a time over the northern half of the country and there will be some accumulations before it clears eastward.

1 - 3 cm on lower ground, more with height.

Not a fan but just to illustrate.




On Sunday a more active system is likely to bring snowfall to west Ulster, rain for the rest of us.

Higher ground always the wrong place to be this weekend.

Alas, it is this system that heralds the end of this colder spell of weather and a temporary rise in temperatures along with southwesterly winds that could be strong at times thereafter for a good part of next week.


Mod Note : adding warning

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
A band of heavy rain will move up from the south on Saturday night. The rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it encounters the cold air with temporary accumulations possible. Snowfall accumulations will be highest in upland parts of Donegal. Any snow will turn back to rain later on Sunday morning as much milder air extends from the south.

Issued:Saturday 20 January 2018 11:00
Valid:Saturday 20 January 2018 23:00 to Sunday 21 January 2018 08:00

Last edited by Meteorite58; 20-01-2018 at 12:08. Reason: Mod Note: update warning
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19-01-2018, 12:07   #2
lolie
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The Aperge is going for it turning to snow a nice bit of the country Sunday morning.

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19-01-2018, 12:18   #3
Kermit.de.frog
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I can always go one better (for Saturday morning)



Realistically it will be cold enough in general in the northern half of the country. For east coasts an onshore wind may ensure no snow for these parts.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 19-01-2018 at 12:28.
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19-01-2018, 13:56   #4
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Yes hiking tomorrow could be interesting, mind you the high res charts have no real intensity in it for Wicklow.

I think the flooding tomorrow night into Sunday will be a much bigger issue, that along with a quick thaw on higher ground could push some rivers over.
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19-01-2018, 13:59   #5
Danno
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https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/v...5504258894209/

UK met office are keen on a bit of snow tonight for North Tipp, Laois, Offaly and Kildare.
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19-01-2018, 14:12   #6
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This could be slightly similar to the recent snow event around the 11th of December where much of the midlands saw some snow. I don't think it will be as good as that but similar in that most of the east coast counties will see cold rain or sleet away from high ground. I wouldn't be very confident of snow within 45km of the Irish sea coastline, but we will see what happens. Sunday is likely to be double figures for most us away from parts of Ulster.
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19-01-2018, 15:04   #7
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Elevation looks to be key going by the Arome, quite a widespread but patchy covering of snow tomorrow morning with hilly areas seeing most lying snow and no more than a dusting at lower levels. Cavan and Monaghan again the place to be it seems

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19-01-2018, 15:31   #8
highdef
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Going by the above charts, I'm in a perfect location to test the accuracy of them.

I'm about 40km from the east coast and just south of the Kildare/Meath border. I'm in a fairly rural area. My house is at just under 90m ASL. There's a hill of just under 150m to my immediate north east and another hill just under 140m to my immediate south west.

It will be interesting although my gut feeling is falling snow but a slushy mess (if even sticking at all) but with a decent covering up on the c150m hill, which has its own microclimate.

Last edited by highdef; 19-01-2018 at 15:43.
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19-01-2018, 16:30   #9
cherryghost
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There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.
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19-01-2018, 17:50   #10
Periscal
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Originally Posted by cherryghost View Post
There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.
Now ideally need wind to drop under clear night and allow the surface temps. to drop as much as possible,it is a pity about that 5 hour period of mild weather that thawed the snow on wednesday,otherwise we would experience albedo effect and better surface cooling in the proximity of wicklow mountains, here in west wicklow we can spring a surprise tomorrow AM, the wind is down to 2.2kph according to NRA and skies are clear,temp dropping nicely, dew point will be around 0.5deg I would reckon around here so need temps. to drop below 1, ideally around 0. it is a situation which has very low expectations and these can bring unexpected surprises.we shall see tomorrow 6AM
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19-01-2018, 17:53   #11
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Currently 3.5 c in East kerry. 250 M asl. Cloudy
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19-01-2018, 18:36   #12
highdef
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1.6 in North Kildare. Just home from work so will be interesting how much it falls this evening before the cloud arrives. With wind staying very light until mid morning, there'll be less mixing of air so in theory, the cold air in place overnight has a better chance of hanging about, this increasing the chance of snow. Obviously there are many other parameters, wet bulb temperature being one of the most important.

Last edited by highdef; 19-01-2018 at 19:40.
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19-01-2018, 18:38   #13
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Down to 1.2c here in Tullow already
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19-01-2018, 19:27   #14
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So rain for many with a chance of sleet and snow on the leading edge of the front more so over higher ground as it moves into colder air further North.









Big temperature difference over a short distance



Accumulations of snow


Last edited by Meteorite58; 19-01-2018 at 19:31.
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19-01-2018, 19:37   #15
highdef
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I'm beginning to gain a bit more interest into this possible event because it's looking like fairly calm conditions ahead of the front, in the cold sector. This will assist evaporative cooling of precipitation falling so cold air can be pulled down to ground level. Depending on where the warm/cold dividing line is, there could be quite an abrupt change between rain and snow. And as the front will then sink to the south East, many parts will remain in the cold sector until Saturday night.

Down to 0.9c now in North Kildare and it's still slowly falling. It's a calm night and I'm in a slight valley location so I'm likely to have fairly low temperatures tonight, once it stays clear. If I stay within the cold sector tomorrow morning, I would imagine snow could be a distinct possibility, or possibly even freezing rain.

Last edited by highdef; 19-01-2018 at 19:41.
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