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Saturday / Sunday : snow-Ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

  • 19-01-2018 12:15pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    On Saturday morning a rouge warm front ahead of the real warm front for Sunday will attempt to make inroads in to the colder air. It will fall short over the country and slide southeast but in doing so it will bring snowfall for a time over the northern half of the country and there will be some accumulations before it clears eastward.

    1 - 3 cm on lower ground, more with height.

    Not a fan but just to illustrate.

    iconeu_uk1-1-26-0.png?19-10


    On Sunday a more active system is likely to bring snowfall to west Ulster, rain for the rest of us.

    Higher ground always the wrong place to be this weekend.

    Alas, it is this system that heralds the end of this colder spell of weather and a temporary rise in temperatures along with southwesterly winds that could be strong at times thereafter for a good part of next week.


    Mod Note : adding warning

    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Snow-ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
    A band of heavy rain will move up from the south on Saturday night. The rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it encounters the cold air with temporary accumulations possible. Snowfall accumulations will be highest in upland parts of Donegal. Any snow will turn back to rain later on Sunday morning as much milder air extends from the south.

    Issued:Saturday 20 January 2018 11:00
    Valid:Saturday 20 January 2018 23:00 to Sunday 21 January 2018 08:00


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,134 ✭✭✭ lolie


    The Aperge is going for it turning to snow a nice bit of the country Sunday morning.
    arpegeuk-42-47-0.png?19-12
    arpegeuk-42-49-0.png?19-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    I can always go one better ;) (for Saturday morning)

    arpegeuk-1-25-0.png?19-12

    Realistically it will be cold enough in general in the northern half of the country. For east coasts an onshore wind may ensure no snow for these parts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Yes hiking tomorrow could be interesting, mind you the high res charts have no real intensity in it for Wicklow.

    I think the flooding tomorrow night into Sunday will be a much bigger issue, that along with a quick thaw on higher ground could push some rivers over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,368 ✭✭✭ Danno


    https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155504258894209/

    UK met office are keen on a bit of snow tonight for North Tipp, Laois, Offaly and Kildare.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    This could be slightly similar to the recent snow event around the 11th of December where much of the midlands saw some snow. I don't think it will be as good as that but similar in that most of the east coast counties will see cold rain or sleet away from high ground. I wouldn't be very confident of snow within 45km of the Irish sea coastline, but we will see what happens. Sunday is likely to be double figures for most us away from parts of Ulster.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Elevation looks to be key going by the Arome, quite a widespread but patchy covering of snow tomorrow morning with hilly areas seeing most lying snow and no more than a dusting at lower levels. Cavan and Monaghan again the place to be it seems

    aromehd-45-35-0_hxr0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Going by the above charts, I'm in a perfect location to test the accuracy of them.

    I'm about 40km from the east coast and just south of the Kildare/Meath border. I'm in a fairly rural area. My house is at just under 90m ASL. There's a hill of just under 150m to my immediate north east and another hill just under 140m to my immediate south west.

    It will be interesting although my gut feeling is falling snow but a slushy mess (if even sticking at all) but with a decent covering up on the c150m hill, which has its own microclimate.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭ cherryghost


    There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭ Periscal


    There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.

    Now ideally need wind to drop under clear night and allow the surface temps. to drop as much as possible,it is a pity about that 5 hour period of mild weather that thawed the snow on wednesday,otherwise we would experience albedo effect and better surface cooling in the proximity of wicklow mountains, here in west wicklow we can spring a surprise tomorrow AM, the wind is down to 2.2kph according to NRA and skies are clear,temp dropping nicely, dew point will be around 0.5deg I would reckon around here so need temps. to drop below 1, ideally around 0. it is a situation which has very low expectations and these can bring unexpected surprises.we shall see tomorrow 6AM


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭ kerrycork13


    Currently 3.5 c in East kerry. 250 M asl. Cloudy


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    1.6 in North Kildare. Just home from work so will be interesting how much it falls this evening before the cloud arrives. With wind staying very light until mid morning, there'll be less mixing of air so in theory, the cold air in place overnight has a better chance of hanging about, this increasing the chance of snow. Obviously there are many other parameters, wet bulb temperature being one of the most important.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Down to 1.2c here in Tullow already


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    So rain for many with a chance of sleet and snow on the leading edge of the front more so over higher ground as it moves into colder air further North.

    mm485F3.png?1

    yRIa4e1.png

    tempresult_ytw3.gif

    tempresult_hbe3.gif

    Big temperature difference over a short distance

    tempresult_rrl5.gif

    Accumulations of snow

    tempresult_fny6.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    I'm beginning to gain a bit more interest into this possible event because it's looking like fairly calm conditions ahead of the front, in the cold sector. This will assist evaporative cooling of precipitation falling so cold air can be pulled down to ground level. Depending on where the warm/cold dividing line is, there could be quite an abrupt change between rain and snow. And as the front will then sink to the south East, many parts will remain in the cold sector until Saturday night.

    Down to 0.9c now in North Kildare and it's still slowly falling. It's a calm night and I'm in a slight valley location so I'm likely to have fairly low temperatures tonight, once it stays clear. If I stay within the cold sector tomorrow morning, I would imagine snow could be a distinct possibility, or possibly even freezing rain.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    tempresult_lfq7.gif

    tempresult_gwe4.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭ Periscal


    highdef wrote: »
    I'm beginning to gain a bit more interest into this possible event because it's looking like fairly calm conditions ahead of the front, in the cold sector. This will assist evaporative cooling of precipitation falling so cold air can be pulled down to ground level. Depending on where the warm/cold dividing line is, there could be quite an abrupt change between rain and snow. And as the front will then sink to the south East, many parts will remain in the cold sector until Saturday night.

    Down to 0.9c now in North Kildare and it's still slowly falling. It's a calm night and I'm in a slight valley location so I'm likely to have fairly low temperatures tonight, once it stays clear. If I stay within the cold sector tomorrow morning, I would imagine snow could be a distinct possibility, or possibly even freezing rain.[/QU

    I have quite similar thoughts that we might spring a few surprises, it may come down to local orography where a hill in the way of a milder front might preserve some areas in cold sector, I have experienced times when no numerical model did forecast any snow and we had 2 hours of frontal event, it was February 2015 I think here in West Wicklow, likes of GFS or ECMWF have not enough resolution for Ireland to account for these orographic anomalies when it comes to small valleys around Wicklow mountains,for expample like Manor Kilbride,Donard,Hollywood,Valleymount or in Kildare likes of Kilteel or Ballymore Eustace


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭ piplip87


    Met Eireann and Met UK have no warnings in place as of yet. Surely if this was happening there would be at least a yellow at this stage


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    piplip87 wrote: »
    Met Eireann and Met UK have no warnings in place as of yet. Surely if this was happening there would be at least a yellow at this stage

    The weather front coming into Ireland may not even reach Northern Ireland and even if it does, not much precipitation is expected. Hence no warning from the the UK met office. Met Eireann use the Hirlam computer model and it does not foresee any disruptive snowfall in populated areas and indeed this could be the case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Freezing here in Sligo. Ice on cars......again

    Roads lethal outside town as black ice from rain earlier


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭ piplip87


    highdef wrote: »
    The weather front coming into Ireland may not even reach Northern Ireland and even if it does, not much precipitation is expected. Hence no warning from the the UK met office. Met Eireann use the Hirlam computer model and it does not foresee any disruptive snowfall in populated areas and indeed this could be the case.


    Thank you. I was reading the orginial post with this thread and was thinking snow tomorrow.
    Hopefully another fall or two left in the winter yet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,134 ✭✭✭ lolie


    Snowing a fair bit outside now.
    Pity it started raining at 3 o'clock though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    lolie wrote: »
    Snowing a fair bit outside now.
    Pity it started raining at 3 o'clock though.

    Where?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Wet snow early this morning but now moderate rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,134 ✭✭✭ lolie


    South Cavan George.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Raining for at least 4 hours here and now its turning to snow, north east meath


  • Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭ littlema


    I could repost yesterday's photo of snow today...... same amount on drive, but this time, no sunny intervals, just dark clouds gently snowing.
    S Sligo asl 152 mtr


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    Raining for at least 4 hours here and now its turning to snow, north east meath

    Near lolie then
    Very wet in Arklow and 4c
    Looks like wet all day if what’s on the radar is to slide southeast

    Front has certainly moved a lot further north than thought initially


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Increasingly sleet in last hour in North Dublin.

    Within half a degree of all out snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Heavy snow now with huge flakes, ground turning white, shame this didnt happen when it started raining hours ago, on way to navan and its getting lighter.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Some wet flakes now.

    Impressive considering a slightly nagging north east breeze!


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