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Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

  • 01-01-2018 5:55pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I think a fresh thread for this is needed.

    Looks like this system will pack a punch and likely to have a greater impact on people than Storm Dylan.

    It will likely be named in the morning.

    EURO4 has it developing rapidly as it crosses Ireland with very strong winds aloft.

    18010221_0112.gif

    18010221_0112.gif

    Hirlam
    hirlamuk-2-30-0.png?01-17



    ECMWF 12z will be out momentarily.


    Mod Note:
    Good call Weathercheck, have added the weather warnings to the opening post.

    Met Eireann


    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
    Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00


    STATUS YELLOW


    Wind Warning for Ireland
    West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

    Update on Previous Warning

    National Weather Warning


    Orange Warning

    Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster and south Galway
    Update on previous warning. Storm Eleanor will move in off the Atlantic later this afternoon and will move very quickly across the country this evening. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h., are expected.
    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

    Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:03
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 21:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Ireland
    Update on previous warning. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h., gusting 90 to 110 km/h., will develop later this afternoon and evening and will continue overnight and through Wednesday. This as result of Storm Eleanor. A period of stronger winds are expected for a short time later today and this evening. See orange warning for details.

    Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00


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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Marine Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Gale Warning
    West to northwest winds backing south to southwest overnight will occasionally reach gale force this evening on coasts from Rossan point to Howth Head to Hook Head and on the Irish Sea, extending to all coastal waters overnight and tomorrow, with the potential of storm force winds along the west coast tomorrow afternoon.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 17:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF is very bad. 70 knot gusts in Dublin region. 80 knot along west coast.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yea was thinking that this looks very strong in the SW initially late afternoon / early evening and some evidence for strong winds traversing the country later in the evening. Tricky one as it is deepening on its way across Ireland into the UK.

    tempresult_kiq5.gif

    tempresult_gcm0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF going for 160kph gusts in exposed western areas.

    A swathe of 120kph gusts extending across the centre of the country.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?

    Possibly Red.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Possibly Red.

    This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Very stormy forecast there now from ME


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I wonder when Eleanor will be named.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Met Eireann


    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Ireland
    West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    ****e the recycling bin is overflowing and is going out Tuesday night !


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Very stormy forecast there now from ME

    Which part of the country most at risk?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Crazy high seas developing

    Limerick Docks

    Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

    LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
    HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
    LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
    HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m


    tempresult_aji8.gif

    nww3uk-0-42_rzk1.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin

    GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).

    Yes and they usually pack the biggest punch!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.

    Yes it did for my location. Showed max gusts in the 50s mph. That's what it achieved. It kept downgrading it throughout the day. All the other models predicted gusts in the 70s for my location. It showed it to be a weaker affair. Highest it showed was 70s on the extreme North Coast around malin. Others showed higher gusts way inland. So it did 100%. The ECM showed gusts of almost 100mph on the coast the day of the storm. It massively over cooked it


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tonight's model runs will tell a lot.

    GFS 12Z

    tempresult_jbf3.gif


    9s3AUPJ.png?1

    tempresult_tde6.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭sumtings


    Crazy high seas developing

    Limerick Docks

    Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

    LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
    HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
    LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
    HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m


    That will be an interesting high tide tomorrow evening in Limerick.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
    Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00



    STATUS YELLOW


    Wind Warning for Ireland
    West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
    Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

    Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
    Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Not the usual orange warning counties for the most part. No kerry cork or further up the north west.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

    nCW13Jk.png

    fLlQTK6.png

    ybAd9NV.png

    dEwoPNt.png


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    ...

    So it has been named and the warning updated to Orange.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    MTC mentioned a possible named storm on Thursday too - I think 3 in a week would be a record for the naming system, although obviously it does only go back 2 seasons.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    It's hard to get a good storm in Mayo the last few years,the centre of these lows seem to always track over mayo or side step up to the northwest.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,360 ✭✭✭NollagShona


    My heart is low, like the air pressure


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Interesting that Met É say "South Galway" in the warning. Maybe they've been reading all the complaining here!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

    nCW13Jk.png

    fLlQTK6.png

    ybAd9NV.png

    dEwoPNt.png

    Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

    Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.

    Thought I was missing something


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