Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 6:55pm #1

I think a fresh thread for this is needed.

Looks like this system will pack a punch and likely to have a greater impact on people than Storm Dylan.

It will likely be named in the morning.

EURO4 has it developing rapidly as it crosses Ireland with very strong winds aloft.

Hirlam

ECMWF 12z will be out momentarily.

Mod Note: Good call Weathercheck, have added the weather warnings to the opening post.

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

Update on Previous Warning

National Weather Warning

Orange Warning

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster and south Galway
Update on previous warning. Storm Eleanor will move in off the Atlantic later this afternoon and will move very quickly across the country this evening. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h., are expected.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:03
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 21:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
Update on previous warning. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h., gusting 90 to 110 km/h., will develop later this afternoon and evening and will continue overnight and through Wednesday. This as result of Storm Eleanor. A period of stronger winds are expected for a short time later today and this evening. See orange warning for details.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 6:58pm

Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning
West to northwest winds backing south to southwest overnight will occasionally reach gale force this evening on coasts from Rossan point to Howth Head to Hook Head and on the Irish Sea, extending to all coastal waters overnight and tomorrow, with the potential of storm force winds along the west coast tomorrow afternoon.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 17:00

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 7:08pm

ECMWF is very bad. 70 knot gusts in Dublin region. 80 knot along west coast.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 7:12pm

Yea was thinking that this looks very strong in the SW initially late afternoon / early evening and some evidence for strong winds traversing the country later in the evening. Tricky one as it is deepening on its way across Ireland into the UK.

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 7:13pm

ECMWF going for 160kph gusts in exposed western areas.

A swathe of 120kph gusts extending across the centre of the country.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 7:16pm

Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 7:17pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?

Possibly Red.

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 7:19pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Possibly Red.

This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).

Storm 10 · 01-01-2018 7:28pm

Very stormy forecast there now from ME

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 7:30pm

I wonder when Eleanor will be named.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 7:31pm

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

km79 · 01-01-2018 7:32pm

****e the recycling bin is overflowing and is going out Tuesday night !

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 7:36pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Very stormy forecast there now from ME

Which part of the country most at risk?

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 7:38pm

Crazy high seas developing

Limerick Docks

Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m

Shedbebreezy · 01-01-2018 7:39pm

GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 7:41pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin

GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.

pad199207 · 01-01-2018 7:46pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).

Yes and they usually pack the biggest punch!

Shedbebreezy · 01-01-2018 8:16pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.

Yes it did for my location. Showed max gusts in the 50s mph. That's what it achieved. It kept downgrading it throughout the day. All the other models predicted gusts in the 70s for my location. It showed it to be a weaker affair. Highest it showed was 70s on the extreme North Coast around malin. Others showed higher gusts way inland. So it did 100%. The ECM showed gusts of almost 100mph on the coast the day of the storm. It massively over cooked it

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 8:35pm

Tonight's model runs will tell a lot.

GFS 12Z

sumtings · 01-01-2018 8:46pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Crazy high seas developing

Limerick Docks

Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m

That will be an interesting high tide tomorrow evening in Limerick.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 8:50pm

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 9:02pm

Not the usual orange warning counties for the most part. No kerry cork or further up the north west.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 9:08pm

Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 9:13pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

...

So it has been named and the warning updated to Orange.

MJohnston · 01-01-2018 9:13pm

MTC mentioned a possible named storm on Thursday too - I think 3 in a week would be a record for the naming system, although obviously it does only go back 2 seasons.

squarecircles · 01-01-2018 9:15pm

It's hard to get a good storm in Mayo the last few years,the centre of these lows seem to always track over mayo or side step up to the northwest.

NollagShona · 01-01-2018 9:17pm

My heart is low, like the air pressure

Rougies · 01-01-2018 9:18pm

Interesting that Met É say "South Galway" in the warning. Maybe they've been reading all the complaining here!

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 9:18pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 9:20pm

Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 9:21pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.

Thought I was missing something

JCX BXC · 01-01-2018 9:48pm

Dublin's TAF showing gusts of 55kts early tomorrow evening, I'd expect higher when the 11pm TAF comes out.

MJohnston · 01-01-2018 9:56pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

Well, presumably because Met E aren't going by those charts, they'd probably be using their own Harmonie model along with a mix of other models. The ECM seems to be really bullish about this wind compared to WRF and the ARPEGE for example. GFS and ICON are somewhat in agreement with the ECM, though a bit less intense.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 10:03pm

According to the ECM, the storm centre will be 980 hPa over Galway city at 1800Z and then 975 hPa over the Isle of Man at 2100Z. That's a distance of 300 km in 3 hours, or a speed of 100 km/h. That's some forward speed alright and will be added to the gradient winds on the southern flank. The GFS is slightly slower and around 1 degree further north. The ICON and Arome are again showing gusts over 80 knots in the Irish Sea by 2100Z, but again I think that's a bit ott. The Harmonie is linked to the Arome so I wonder what charts it's producing in Glasnevin. Hopefully they'll tweet them later.

As always there is a chance of a northward shift, but it does look like a strong but very brief spell of winds through the central swathe of the country and also the southeast.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 10:06pm

Wow, is that speed of movement common?

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 10:13pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wow, is that speed of movement common?

It's on the upper end of the range alright. I don't remember seeing any depression move so fast.

MJohnston · 01-01-2018 10:21pm

It's far from the same thing, but I was in the DC area during the June 2012 Derecho storm and the difference that the fast moving system made to the ground conditions was insane. Most intense weather I've ever personally experienced.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 10:21pm

RTE have just tweeted about the Orange status

Oscar Bravo · 01-01-2018 10:22pm

Great forecast from Evelyn there on rte1 there. Storm force winds behind the low also lasting all night and into wednesday morning.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 10:23pm

MJohnston wrote: »

It's far from the same thing, but I was in the DC area during the June 2012 Derecho storm and the difference that the fast moving system made to the ground conditions was insane. Most intense weather I've ever personally experienced.

Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 10:24pm

There's an almost 200-knot jet streak just off the New Foundland coast this evening causing an area of huge upper divergence (the + area). This is over a slack 1005-hPa surface low (T 1005, far left), which is what will deepen over the next 18 hours as it approaches Ireland. A lot of stuff happening fast, so the exact phasing with this upper feature may lead to some differences come tomorrow evening.

MJohnston · 01-01-2018 10:25pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?

It's way beyond my knowledge to explain it to be honest!

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 10:25pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Right, so the speed of movement has to be added to the wind speed in certain quadrants? Is that how it works?

Yes, on the southern flank of the low. To the north the opposite is true and it could be very calm as the low passes to the south (but then northwesterly winds picking up quickly thereafter).

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-01-2018 10:26pm

Is probably good it peaks around 21:00 rather than 17:00-18-00 to avoid peak population (East coast) commuting traffic.
Maybe keep your high-sided vehicles parked up, tomorrow late evening for a while. Would not like to be of those folks door-dropping-pizzas via 50cc mopeds.

Screen_Shot_2018-01-01_at_20.49.46.png

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 10:29pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yes, on the southern flank of the low. To the north the opposite is true and it could be very calm as the low passes to the south (but then northwesterly winds picking up quickly thereafter).

Gotcha, but surely not 100kph added to the wind speed? It should slow with the friction on moving over land?

uck51js9zml2yt · 01-01-2018 10:34pm

I've to get the tarbert ferry in the morning. Is it likely this storm will effect it?

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 10:40pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Gotcha, but surely not 100kph added to the wind speed? It should slow with the friction on moving over land?

For areas to the south and perpendicular to the storm track then up to 100 km/h can be added. Imagine the storm were stationary. You'd just have the gradient wind circulating around the centre. After that, any movement of the storm will add speed to the wind relative to you on the ground.

It's like standing beside a merry-go-round and someone on it hitting you as they pass by. If their hand is just sticking out but their arm is not moving relative to the merry-go-round then you'll just get hit with the speed of the hand. But imagine they hit you with a perfectly-timed punch just at the right time. Now you'll feel a harder hit from the added speed of their hand (original speed from merry-go-round + speed of hand moving relative to it).

JCX BXC · 01-01-2018 10:42pm

Peter Ambitious Tenure wrote: »

I've to get the tarbert ferry in the morning. Is it likely this storm will effect it?

First thing I'd say is read the title of the thread.

I'm local to the ferry, it runs in quite poor weather.

01-01-2018 10:59pm

18Z GFS still doesn’t want to do much with this it seems. 50-60 kt gusts over the southern half of the country in the afternoon/evening.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 11:11pm

Looks big in the Atlantic

Edit: Eh, not sure if that's Eleanor.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 11:23pm

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/947920060877889536

Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

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