Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

MJohnston

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Looks big in the Atlantic

Edit: Eh, not sure if that's Eleanor.

Eleanor isn't really an organised system as such, but the winds do interact with that low on their way here.

Pangea

What's the chances this thing ends up in Donegal as usual?

ascophyllum

Might be interesting to note that the swell size on the west coast on Wednesday will be the biggest in a long time, way bigger than storm Dylan, 8 to 10 metres at 19 seconds as the wind field has stretched almost across the whole Atlantic. There are very high tides in the evening too so flooding very possible.
This has been visible on our (surfers') forecast for the last 4 or 5 days.

4068ac1elhodqr

Wonder will the full, kinda-super moon have an effect on tides also.
It tends to send all the local moggie cats round here in to 'wired' mode.

Meteorite58

Pointed out in the forecast after the evening news by Evelyn Cusack that an Orange Status was given because of the combination of high winds and rainfall sweeping across the country creating dangerous conditions.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/metdesk/status/947924164949807104

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/947942610148184065


https://twitter.com/barrabest/status/947926049890893826

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/947925059947106306

Oscar Bravo

the Shannon and Dubin TAF's falling in line with current forecasts

TAF EINN 012300Z 0200/0224 14007KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025
BECMG 0201/0204 15015KT
BECMG 0204/0206 18020G32KT
TEMPO 0204/0207 5000 -RA BKN012
BECMG 0206/0208 25023G36KT
BECMG 0208/0210 24019G31KT
BECMG 0211/0213 23016G26KT
BECMG 0213/0215 16013KT BKN018
BECMG 0215/0217 24025G40KT
TEMPO 0214/0218 4000 RA BKN010
TEMPO 0217/0219 25035G55KT
BECMG 0218/0220 27027G43KT
TEMPO 0220/0224 5000 SHRA SCT012 SCT018CB

Meteorite58

Remaining very windy into Weds along Atlantic coastal counties.

Latest 18Z

RobertKK

Including Carlow in Orange warning but no Kilkenny, it even looks wrong on the map.

Oscar Bravo

Centre of the storm due to pass over Mayo between 4 and 6pm with Knock TAF for those times just giving wind as Variable at 3 knots!

EIKN 012300Z 0200/0224 20006KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025
BECMG 0200/0202 16010KT
BECMG 0202/0204 17015KT
BECMG 0204/0206 17020G32KT
TEMPO 0204/0207 4000 -RA BKN008
PROB40
TEMPO 0205/0207 3000 RA BKN004
BECMG 0206/0208 26023G35KT
TEMPO 0207/0210 5000 -SHRA BKN015
BECMG 0208/0210 26020G30KT
BECMG 0210/0212 25012KT
BECMG 0212/0214 20013KT 7000 -RA BKN012
TEMPO 0215/0219 3000 RA BKN005
BECMG 0216/0218 VRB03KT **
BECMG 0218/0220 26025G40KT 9999 NSW FEW012 BKN025
TEMPO 0219/0224 4000 SHRA SCT012 SCT018CB
BECMG 0221/0224 25020G32KT

Meteorite58

WRF-NMM 18Z not as strong as the earlier run, showing very strong winds running along S coasts.

km79

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 18Z

igCorcaigh

So Cork might get a bit of this storm then?

mirrorwall14

North Kildare so time for the Christmas lights to come down you reckon and secure the bins? We have one of those light up figures!

Soccarboy11

If cork gets that it should get an upgrade right? Still some time I suppose, its most likely a now moment type of storm im guessing?

Neddyusa

RobertKK wrote: »

Including Carlow in Orange warning but no Kilkenny, it even looks wrong on the map.

Yes, the very same anomoly as not including Roscommon while Galway and Longford/Westmesth are included.

Sometimes you get the impression these county lists for warnings are put together by someone without access to a map!!

redsteveireland

km79 wrote: »

I'll be securing mine anyway, Dylan moved them as they were only half full.

fraxinus1

Where’s my last post on here gone??

redsteveireland

That ARPEGE 18Z puts me right in some of the strongest gusts around 8pm. It will be all over very quickly though.

nagdefy

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Where’s my last post on here gone??

Possibly gone with the wind

I think we all have a few posts deleted from time to time.

Oscar Bravo

certainly does,you should get some high gusts and very high seas along the west coast along with high tide about 5pm. interesting 24 hours ahead for bottom two thirds of the country.

Gaoth Laidir

I wonder if the strong winds coming behind Eleanor from that current large storm depression during Wednesday will be strong enough to be named Fionn.

Jpmarn

Eleanor, Fionn and Georgina in the one go this week perhaps.

Gaoth Laidir

Wind at Dublin will be from 220°, gusting 55 knots, from 1800-2000 tomorrow. This is the dreaded direction that leads to multiple diversions, especially if the runway is wet, which it may be. Expect delays and have a listen to LiveATC.

nagdefy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I wonder if the strong winds coming behind Eleanor from that current large storm depression during Wednesday will be strong enough to be named Fionn.

Fionn MacCumhaill, if temperatures take a dip:D

Don't mind me Gaoth, a bit giddy this evening.

MJohnston

That feature that passes across south Ulster on the AROME looks brutal:

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I wonder if the strong winds coming behind Eleanor from that current large storm depression during Wednesday will be strong enough to be named Fionn.

Thursday looks more and more like it'll be another one too, so that would be fairly crazy.

pistolpetes11

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Where’s my last post on here gone??

Added nothing constructive to the conversation so was removed , and so were the ones that quoted it .

nagdefy

MJohnston wrote: »

Thursday looks more and more like it'll be another one too, so that would be fairly crazy.

It'll be like the Beautiful South song from 1989.. 'Jennifer, Alison, Phillipa, Sue, Deborah and Annabelle too'

Song for Whoever

igCorcaigh

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster and south Galway
Update on previous warning. Storm Eleanor will move in off the Atlantic later this afternoon and will move very quickly across the country this evening. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h., are expected.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:03
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 21:00

Oscar Bravo

5am TAF for Shannon has gusts of 60 knots forecast between 5pm and 7pm. Its going to pack quite a punch in places this one!

Shedbebreezy

GFS going for a max gust of 53mph at Dublin airport

Gaoth Laidir

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

5am TAF for Shannon has gusts of 60 knots forecast between 5pm and 7pm. Its going to pack quite a punch in places this one!

And the max at Dublin has dropped 5 knots to 50 knots. Cork 52 knots.

Shedbebreezy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

And the max at Dublin has dropped 5 knots to 50 knots. Cork 52 knots.

More in line with the GFS. GFS 56mph for Cork Airport

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

And the max at Dublin has dropped 5 knots to 50 knots. Cork 52 knots.

Latest ECMWF model giving wind gusts at EIDW to 65 knots this evening.

Meteorite58

Take care this evening.

Meteorite58

Some rough weather overnight into Weds in Store.

fraxinus1

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

GFS going for a max gust of 53mph at Dublin airport

While that is quite high for Dublin, it is not likely to cause any damage. It looks like a blustery evening for the central parts of Ireland but nothing out of the ordinary. Unless this wave feature does a weather bomb, it’s difficult to see where gusts to 130kmph are going to come from.


Mod Note: fraxinus1 . Do not attempt to derail this thread . Desist from your type of posting .

igCorcaigh

Stingjet potential?

Meteorite58

Mod Note : This thread is not to be derailed by off topic posts.

See forum Charter

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munsterlegend

I love this site on a windy day. Have no idea what model it uses but looks in line with Met Eireann thinking on the storm.

https://www.ventusky.com

up for anything

Eleanor is appropriate on the 41st anniversary of the unexpected Big Gale on 2nd January, 1976. I hope she's not as terrible and frightening as that. I'll never forget my mother driving us back from Cork city to Freshford in County Kilkenny, where we'd visited my sister who'd just had her baby that morning, through the height of the storm with trees falling on the road in front of us along with telegraph poles and live electricity wires whipping off the road in front of us showering the ground with sparks. Scary as hell but also exhilarating. She got us home safely although when I look back now she must have felt as sick as hell throughout what seemed an endless drive but we had no money and just enough petrol so not much choice. She always wanted to drive the Paris to Dhakar rally - I think she'd have been well able.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

MJohnston

I don't know how to accurately describe this but the latest GFS seems to put a lot of weight into the idea that the winds will be significantly reduced over land compared to most other models. I'll be curious to see how that works out for it.

It's a hard one to digest actually - on Meteociel the time division is too infrequent, so a lot of the event occurs between frames of the model. Whereas on Netweather the frames are hourly but the actual model resolution is much lower. Does the HD GFS only have 3 hour frames?

The general track does seem to correlate with the rest though, remarkable agreement on that.

Gaoth Laidir

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!


Met eireann might need to review their warning!

Shedbebreezy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!

Could this be your Michael Fish moment:p

ninebeanrows

A high impact event now looking more and more likely for the Greater Dublin region.

Latest Hirlam.

munsterlegend

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Could this be your Michael Fish moment:p

It would be very ironic given the username as well!