Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
22-12-2017, 17:37   #1
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 5,001
Stephens Day Low - Rain with wintry showers on back edge

It's been pretty uneventful weather-wise the last 2 weeks.

Looks like Christmas Day will be dull and rainy for most of the country with the oncoming set of complex lows off the Atlantic, leading to some possible spot flooding in the SE.


Afterwards, slightly colder air looks to be introduced over the country as the next front moved in. Note number of Isobars on the chart so it'll be quite windy too.


GFS is inline with UKMO and so is ECM with only slight variations.

Current indications suggest wintry showers on the back edge of the system

Snow potential above roughly 200m


Temps

Dewpoints


One to keep an eye on. Like the system on the 10th, a nudge north or south will make a big difference.

Last edited by Iancar29; 22-12-2017 at 19:52.
Iancar29 is offline  
Advertisement
23-12-2017, 19:29   #2
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,387
ICON has upped the possibility of snow on Tues coming into the evening time and as temperatures begin to drop maybe a better chance for accumulations of snow.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 23-12-2017 at 20:36. Reason: additional chart
Meteorite58 is offline  
23-12-2017, 19:30   #3
pad199207
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,045
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
ICON has upped the possibility of snow on Tues coming into the evening time and as temperatures begin to drop maybe a better chance for accumulations of snow.






Poor Kildare again
pad199207 is online now  
23-12-2017, 19:39   #4
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,387
For comparison.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 23-12-2017 at 19:44.
Meteorite58 is offline  
(3) thanks from:
23-12-2017, 19:44   #5
JCX BXC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 16,382
Interestingly, for the western half of the country at least, the chart seems to have the same line dividing snow and rain, except this time the snow is on the southern flank!

I've a few truckloads of salt to take this with though.
JCX BXC is online now  
Advertisement
23-12-2017, 20:13   #6
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,387
Quote:
Interestingly, for the western half of the country at least, the chart seems to have the same line dividing snow and rain, except this time the snow is on the southern flank!

I've a few truckloads of salt to take this with though.
Yea the front seems to curl back into the cold pool of air on it's southern flank where the air could be quite unstable I would imagine, I think the convection charts showing possibility of thunder in the South too. Bit far out to be sure but an interesting set up.



Meteorite58 is offline  
23-12-2017, 21:59   #7
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,879
Guys this is starting to upgrade....
Stephens day night is starting to look very interesting.
Ok it's maybe short lived but we have a decent chance here of snow lying by Wed morning
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
(2) thanks from:
23-12-2017, 22:12   #8
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,313
The five to 10 Beeb(BBC) forecast showed a couple of possible snow events for different parts of Ireland in the next seven days. They will be short- lived falls, but i'll take it. Too bad we could not eek out a late Christmas night snowfall. It always seems these colder snaps arrive a day or two too late at this time of year.
nacho libre is online now  
(2) thanks from:
23-12-2017, 23:45   #9
Rebelbrowser
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,524
Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
The five to 10 Beeb(BBC) forecast showed a couple of possible snow events for different parts of Ireland in the next seven days. They will be short- lived falls, but i'll take it. Too bad we could not eek out a late Christmas night snowfall. It always seems these colder snaps arrive a day or two too late at this time of year.
The 18z gfs suggests there could still be late Christmas night snow ever before this next "event".
Rebelbrowser is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
23-12-2017, 23:50   #10
Rebelbrowser
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,524
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebelbrowser View Post
The 18z gfs suggests there could still be late Christmas night snow ever before this next "event".
just to illustrate see attached....
Attached Images
File Type: gif 17122600_2318.gif (19.3 KB, 180 views)
Rebelbrowser is offline  
(2) thanks from:
24-12-2017, 00:34   #11
Gaoth Laidir
Registered User
 
Gaoth Laidir's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 3,972
Not sure exactly where this cold air is supposed to be coming from, even if you take the GFS. Uppers not cold enough, no established surface cold pool, ground too warm and wet. I'd be surprised to see any snow below 300 metres.
Gaoth Laidir is online now  
(2) thanks from:
24-12-2017, 09:06   #12
Rebelbrowser
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,524
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Not sure exactly where this cold air is supposed to be coming from, even if you take the GFS. Uppers not cold enough, no established surface cold pool, ground too warm and wet. I'd be surprised to see any snow below 300 metres.
Hard to disagree with this much as I would love to. The Stephens day "event" now only has precipitation over Munster and gfs aside every model has it as rain.
Rebelbrowser is offline  
24-12-2017, 10:45   #13
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,313
It now looks as if Wednesday might be the best day for wintry precipitation, but showers will not be widespread at that stage. It seems it will be cold, but not cold enough for snow at lower levels most, if not all, of the time, just miserable cold rain and some sleet over the course of next week
nacho libre is online now  
24-12-2017, 10:49   #14
squarecircles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,366
The winteryness now removed from met eireann s forecast for the coming week, borefest up to new year's Eve,

Storm potential gone too.

More time to pig out and watch trash on the telly I guess.
squarecircles is offline  
Thanks from:
24-12-2017, 13:48   #15
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,387
The models showing the system to the South on Tues staying much further to the South on the latest runs and more like grazing southern counties. A small area of LP showing up moving down from the N in the evening may produce some wintry precipitation but ground temps look too high maybe. 500hpa temps looking to get colder as the evening draws in, 850hPa temps showing -2 /-4 at best it would seem at this stage. Sleet / short lived wet snow at best perhaps.










Maybe a few white peaks.




Meteorite58 is offline  
Thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet