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Stephens Day Low - Rain with wintry showers on back edge

  • 22-12-2017 6:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    It's been pretty uneventful weather-wise the last 2 weeks.

    Looks like Christmas Day will be dull and rainy for most of the country with the oncoming set of complex lows off the Atlantic, leading to some possible spot flooding in the SE.
    72-574UK_sxv8.GIF

    Afterwards, slightly colder air looks to be introduced over the country as the next front moved in. Note number of Isobars on the chart so it'll be quite windy too.
    90-7UK_ahp3.GIF

    GFS is inline with UKMO and so is ECM with only slight variations.

    Current indications suggest wintry showers on the back edge of the system
    102-574UK_vau2.GIF
    Snow potential above roughly 200m
    102-526UK_cph0.GIF

    Temps
    126-582UK_foh5.GIF
    Dewpoints
    102-101UK_aqc5.GIF

    One to keep an eye on. Like the system on the 10th, a nudge north or south will make a big difference.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON has upped the possibility of snow on Tues coming into the evening time and as temperatures begin to drop maybe a better chance for accumulations of snow.


    iconeu_uk1-41-78-0_dby1.png

    tempresult_uxn2.gif

    iconeu_uk1-45-84-0_bcg7.png

    tempresult_uff9.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    ICON has upped the possibility of snow on Tues coming into the evening time and as temperatures begin to drop maybe a better chance for accumulations of snow.


    iconeu_uk1-41-78-0_dby1.png

    tempresult_uxn2.gif

    iconeu_uk1-45-84-0_bcg7.png

    Poor Kildare again


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    For comparison.


    arpegeuk-41-79-0_cel7.png

    arpegeuk-16-78-0_afo5.png

    arpegeuk-21-78-0_ttl2.png

    tempresult_ldo5.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Interestingly, for the western half of the country at least, the chart seems to have the same line dividing snow and rain, except this time the snow is on the southern flank!

    I've a few truckloads of salt to take this with though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Interestingly, for the western half of the country at least, the chart seems to have the same line dividing snow and rain, except this time the snow is on the southern flank!

    I've a few truckloads of salt to take this with though.

    Yea the front seems to curl back into the cold pool of air on it's southern flank where the air could be quite unstable I would imagine, I think the convection charts showing possibility of thunder in the South too. Bit far out to be sure but an interesting set up.

    tempresult_gbt4.gif

    tempresult_smr1.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Guys this is starting to upgrade....
    Stephens day night is starting to look very interesting.
    Ok it's maybe short lived but we have a decent chance here of snow lying by Wed morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    The five to 10 Beeb(BBC) forecast showed a couple of possible snow events for different parts of Ireland in the next seven days. They will be short- lived falls, but i'll take it. Too bad we could not eek out a late Christmas night snowfall. It always seems these colder snaps arrive a day or two too late at this time of year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    The five to 10 Beeb(BBC) forecast showed a couple of possible snow events for different parts of Ireland in the next seven days. They will be short- lived falls, but i'll take it. Too bad we could not eek out a late Christmas night snowfall. It always seems these colder snaps arrive a day or two too late at this time of year.

    The 18z gfs suggests there could still be late Christmas night snow ever before this next "event".


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    The 18z gfs suggests there could still be late Christmas night snow ever before this next "event".

    just to illustrate see attached....


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Not sure exactly where this cold air is supposed to be coming from, even if you take the GFS. Uppers not cold enough, no established surface cold pool, ground too warm and wet. I'd be surprised to see any snow below 300 metres.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Not sure exactly where this cold air is supposed to be coming from, even if you take the GFS. Uppers not cold enough, no established surface cold pool, ground too warm and wet. I'd be surprised to see any snow below 300 metres.

    Hard to disagree with this much as I would love to. The Stephens day "event" now only has precipitation over Munster and gfs aside every model has it as rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    It now looks as if Wednesday might be the best day for wintry precipitation, but showers will not be widespread at that stage. It seems it will be cold, but not cold enough for snow at lower levels most, if not all, of the time, just miserable cold rain and some sleet over the course of next week


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    The winteryness now removed from met eireann s forecast for the coming week, borefest up to new year's Eve,

    Storm potential gone too.

    More time to pig out and watch trash on the telly I guess.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The models showing the system to the South on Tues staying much further to the South on the latest runs and more like grazing southern counties. A small area of LP showing up moving down from the N in the evening may produce some wintry precipitation but ground temps look too high maybe. 500hpa temps looking to get colder as the evening draws in, 850hPa temps showing -2 /-4 at best it would seem at this stage. Sleet / short lived wet snow at best perhaps.

    tempresult_sor3.gif

    tempresult_lyl5.gif


    NVc8V26.png?1

    arpegeuk-41-63-0_pxn2.png

    Maybe a few white peaks.


    arpegeuk-37-57-0_kii1.png

    arpegeuk-37-63-0_lem5.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Quite a few of the models showing a bit snow of some sort in the SW and S for Tues evening ( could be a good coating on the Wicklow Mountains from Monday evening ). The GFS showing the Precipitation the furthest inland.

    IHL09GN.png

    hirlamuk-42-48-0_sdg8.png


    tempresult_vgw4.gif

    tempresult_nar2.gif

    tempresult_xkf0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Shannon TAF has showers of Graupel in the forecast for tomorrow, from 2pm.

    Knock and Cork don't have TAF's issued for Christmas day as they're closed. I understand Dublin will as it's somewhat open, but the terminals closed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Shannon TAF has showers of Graupel in the forecast for tomorrow, from 2pm.

    Knock and Cork don't have TAF's issued for Christmas day as they're closed. I understand Dublin will as it's somewhat open, but the terminals closed.

    Yes, Dublin is only open to SAR and Air Ambulance from 23:30 today to 03:45 on the 26th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    From a Cork point of view those charts posted by Meteorite a while ago are like...em...er...Christmas come early......


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    From a Cork point of view those charts posted by Meteorite a while ago are like...em...er...Christmas come early......

    I KNOW, RIGHT? Say nothing... we might jinx it..


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    The cork snow shield is gonna get tested!


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Met Eireann : Tomorrow, St. Stephen's Day, will be a cold day. There'll be sunny spells, but in the north and northwest there will be further wintry showers. In the south more persistent rain will develop, locally heavy along the coast and turning to sleet in inland areas, with a risk of snow on the hills

    tempresult_fjp6.gif

    tempresult_kkr1.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Yea - still a good amount of uncertainty as to how far north this precip band makes it- could be a surprise snowfall for some.


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭ kerrycork13


    I think there is at least a 70% chance of snow above 200asl especially in parts of East kerry north cork and South Tipp possibly west Waterford Tommorow afternoon into eve


  • Registered Users Posts: 889 ✭✭✭ downwiththatsor


    Latest Euro4 keeps the track south, only grazes the far south west coast 17122618_2512.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 459 ✭✭ Mr Bumble


    Latest Euro4 keeps the track south, only grazes the far south west coast 17122618_2512.gif

    Large white bits in among cold rain in Mallow @ 3 degrees.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Wet snow here high ground Cork
    I wonder can the airport nudge a technical white one


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Some rain and sleet forecast for Cork.Airport tomorrow afternoon.


    TAF EICK 252300Z 2600/2624 25012KT 9999 FEW010 BKN025
    BECMG 2607/2609 VRB03KT
    BECMG 2609/2612 07012KT 6000 -RA BKN009
    TEMPO 2612/2618 3000 RA -RASN BKN003
    PROB40 TEMPO 2613/2616 05015G25KT
    BECMG 2616/2618 34015KT TEMPO 2618/2624 32018G28KT=


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 rbelmc


    heavy wet snow in Carrs Hill near Cork City for 30 mins around 8.30pm tonight
    weather forecasters were spot on when they mentioned possible sleet/snow on back edge


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    rbelmc wrote: »
    heavy wet snow in Carrs Hill near Cork City for 30 mins around 8.30pm tonight
    weather forecasters were spot on when they mentioned possible sleet/snow on back edge[/quote

    Is it a technical white Christmas so I wonder as Cork airport is higher still??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    rbelmc wrote: »
    heavy wet snow in Carrs Hill near Cork City for 30 mins around 8.30pm tonight
    weather forecasters were spot on when they mentioned possible sleet/snow on back edge[/quote

    Is it a technical white Christmas so I wonder as Cork airport is higher still??

    Wikipedia claims that in the UK snow reported as falling at any met station is a white Christmas but that in Ireland the sole criteria is lying snow at Dublin or Cork airports at 9am on the day. Hardly correct I would have thought .....


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