Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
16-10-2017, 17:27   #1
hatrickpatrick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,247
Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:





Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:





What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?
hatrickpatrick is online now  
Advertisement
16-10-2017, 17:31   #2
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 338
Any concern for this Friday?

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;1.3...&t=20171020/21

This looks like another storm similar to todays...
Creative83 is offline  
16-10-2017, 17:37   #3
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,977
Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

Last edited by sdanseo; 16-10-2017 at 17:40.
sdanseo is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:02   #4
Akrasia
Registered User
 
Akrasia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 13,052
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.
The water temperatures are significantly above average which could allow it to keep much of its strength as it crosses the atlantic

Akrasia is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:07   #5
munsterlegend
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,531
Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:





Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:





What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?
Surely can't be that unlucky again! Usually these storms miss us to the north west?
munsterlegend is offline  
Advertisement
16-10-2017, 18:08   #6
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,977
Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM


GFS


WRF


NAVGEM
sdanseo is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:14   #7
pjohnson
Registered User
 
pjohnson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 9,864
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM


GFS


WRF


NAVGEM
Oh. Is it a certainty to hit?

Mod Edit

Last edited by Meteorite58; 16-10-2017 at 20:42. Reason: language
pjohnson is online now  
16-10-2017, 18:16   #8
jArgHA
Registered User
 
jArgHA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 1,228
Send a message via MSN to jArgHA Send a message via Yahoo to jArgHA Send a message via Skype™ to jArgHA
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohnson View Post
Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?
No
jArgHA is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:17   #9
pjohnson
Registered User
 
pjohnson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 9,864
Quote:
Originally Posted by jArgHA View Post
No
Thank god. I'm a weather idiot so find these graphs hard to follow. Appreciate the help.
pjohnson is online now  
Advertisement
16-10-2017, 18:17   #10
hatrickpatrick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjohnson View Post
Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?
This far out, absolutely not. It's not even a certainty to develop a closed circulation before the wind shear rips it apart - NHC give it a 40% chance. One to watch, but not one to panic about just yet.
hatrickpatrick is online now  
(2) thanks from:
16-10-2017, 18:25   #11
Akrasia
Registered User
 
Akrasia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 13,052
Those models show it zipping across the atlantic at ludicrous speed

Must be averaging 30kts the whole way
Akrasia is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:27   #12
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,977
No such thing as a certainty with the weather. There was a 180km/h wind indication 24hrs ago for where I am - honestly I'd be surprised if we got 120.

The fact that there's consensus between a few different models shows "something is up". Not possible to be any more definitive than that 120hrs out.
sdanseo is offline  
(2) thanks from:
16-10-2017, 18:38   #13
tayto lover
Registered User
 
tayto lover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 34,683
Ah feck.
Back into the bunker.
tayto lover is offline  
16-10-2017, 18:43   #14
RobbingBandit
Registered User
 
RobbingBandit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 13,864
Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.
RobbingBandit is online now  
16-10-2017, 18:43   #15
pjohnson
Registered User
 
pjohnson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 9,864
For goodness sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

Mod Edit:

Last edited by Meteorite58; 16-10-2017 at 20:41. Reason: language
pjohnson is online now  
Thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet