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The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

  • 10-08-2014 9:56pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.
    I would like to remind people to look over the forum charter as we enter what I like to call silly season on this forum .

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    Tagged:


«13456785

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Fair play to ye


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    I predict lots of model watching that will end like this..

    giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Too soon :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    km79 wrote: »
    Too soon :D

    Never too soon. :D

    Last years winter thread was created on the 11/8. I have been waiting to see who will get there first.:pac:

    It is kind of scary that this appeared so close to the same date.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    Seriously, it's a definite i know it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,016 ✭✭✭Blush_01


    Delivery confirmation for your snow machine came through? Good man.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    Ok then, everyone that doubts my prediction pays 20 euro in November when there is a blanket of snow across the country :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭elecktras weather bomb


    I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

    well there is a definite chill in the air at night already,and leaves starting to fall off the neighbours trees into our garden.once its not a snizzle fest il settle for a few good frosts even and few raging storms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    I read that the El Niño likelihood this year has been down graded. El Niño years have been associated with greater chances of snow - I think! Does this hold up for Ireland?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We've barely had a flake of snow here since Winter 2010, I get the feeling we will get a bit more lucky this winter.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,143 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    Not that it means anything as it's not winter yet. But it's a bit cold for August....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    Negative Arctic Oscillation


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,403 ✭✭✭✭vicwatson


    I predict a riot (if the Cork snow dome occurs again this winter)


  • Registered Users Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    Well according to this.....

    http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/331

    you just might be right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,403 ✭✭✭✭vicwatson


    Strasser wrote: »
    Well according to this.....

    http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/331

    you just might be right.

    A bit Ken Ring-esque no??


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Don't feed trolls and spoofers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

    A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
    El Nino is likely
    The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

    A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
    El Nino is likely
    The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen

    It will all fall into place, just wait and see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

    A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
    El Nino is likely
    The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen
    Synopsis: The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

    :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    I predict two possible scenarios:

    1. There will be whiteout blizzard conditions for most of the country à la late 2010.

    Meanwhile, however, Cork's beloved snow shield will be in full force. All snow showers will fizzle out when they reach the invisible boundary at the Dunkettle roundabout, with Cork city getting rampant zonal conditions with temperatures in the low teens.

    Expect tantrums and gloating to follow. :P

    ...Or a more likely scenario:

    2. There will be a total cross model agreement for a massive Beasterly Snowmageddon (think 2010 on steroids) that will send Boards.ie into meltdown and then will promptly vanish at 24h out to be replaced by a Bartlett High Pressure. Posters will then declare "I will never trust the models again", only to get excited once again when the same scenario repeats itself a week later. :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    I predict two possible scenarios:

    1. There will be whiteout blizzard conditions for most of the country à la late 2010.

    Meanwhile, however, Cork's beloved snow shield will be in full force. All snow showers will fizzle out when they reach the invisible boundary at the Dunkettle roundabout, with Cork city getting rampant zonal conditions with temperatures in the low teens.

    Expect tantrums and gloating to follow. :P

    ...Or a more likely scenario:

    2. There will be a total cross model agreement for a massive Beasterly Snowmageddon (think 2010 on steroids) that will send Boards.ie into meltdown and then will promptly vanish at 24h out to be replaced by a Bartlett High Pressure. Posters will then declare "I will never trust the models again", only to get excited once again when the same scenario repeats itself a week later. :pac:

    That pretty much sums it up! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    was waiting to see when the first thread would start looking forward to all the gnashing of teeth as everybody blames either the cork snowshield or the pesky iom shadow when all the models go pear shaped.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Gosh, I wonder what James Madden thinks winter will be like this year! :rolleyes:

    TBH, any cold weather will be an improvement on last winter. Plenty of storms but no decent wintry spells at all (apart from one or two cold zonal wet snow events). Hopefully this winter will be more of a mixed bag.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Last Winter I dubbed it The Year America stole Winter.

    Looking at all the blocking that is around now if it were winter we would be looking out for snow. Knowing our luck we will be back in the western mess just in time for Winter.

    We barely even had frost last year. I hope this year is different.

    Last year is was going well in the beginning. Higher snow cover than normal over Russia then BAM the US stole the entire winter.

    Here are my charts are saying

    From October 2013 to March 2014 I recorded 32 frost mornings

    October 2012 to April 2013 I recorded 93 frost mornings

    October 2011 to April 2012 I recorded 28 frost mornings

    October 2010 to March 2011 I recorded 81 frost mornings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Bring in the New year with a CHILL i say :rolleyes: :D :pac: :P


    318099.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Hopefully winter 2014/15 will be much better for cold and snow lovers then last winter,i suppoose its cant be any worse. Since the start of 2011 there has been a real lack of snow (March 2013 was a cold month and delivered some snow of course but to me March is always too little too late). Winter 2011/12 was rubbish and winter 2012/13 wasnt great so heres hoping with the coming winter snowlovers will fare better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,159 ✭✭✭emo72


    that 2 years of snow we got a couple of years ago was an aberration lads. its not gonna happen again for another 30 years. chillax:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow


    emo72 wrote: »
    that 2 years of snow we got a couple of years ago was an aberration lads. its not gonna happen again for another 30 years. chillax:pac:

    Put your money where your mouth is


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Scrappychimow




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,159 ✭✭✭emo72


    Put your money where your mouth is

    all 50 cents?:eek:

    its on:cool:


This discussion has been closed.
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