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11-08-2013, 17:26   #1
Allanjjmurphy
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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Has anybody any theories on earths weather and do you have any predictions for WINTER 2013/2014?

Mod Note

To all Forum Users

Everyone has the right to post here whether they use main-stream, model-based approaches to forecasting or other, perhaps less orthodox methodologies. Opposing approaches and theories can make for interesting discussions and a vibrant forum if they remain civil.

I would ask everyone to try to ensure that their posts follow the spirit and intent of our forum charter

To put it simply, play the ball not the man, challenge posts by all means but refrain from personal attacks, use the report post button if you find a post objectionable, DO NOT respond on thread.

Finally, if you find that a fellow users views irritate you, simply add them to your ignore list

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Last edited by Lumi; 21-09-2013 at 09:48.
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11-08-2013, 17:55   #2
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Best thread of the year Bit early though We gota get through Autumn first!
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11-08-2013, 17:58   #3
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We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum

In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 12-08-2013 at 21:40.
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11-08-2013, 18:12   #4
 
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I'm not satisfied with Summer yet. Need more sunshine. Good growing weather lately, though.
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12-08-2013, 16:07   #5
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Originally Posted by Popoutman View Post
We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum

In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.
Bastardi hasn't been very credible over the last few winters I would have thought.

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 12-08-2013 at 21:40.
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12-08-2013, 20:12   #6
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a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS
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12-08-2013, 20:23   #7
 
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a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS
Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.
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12-08-2013, 21:35   #8
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Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.
By the CFS but they are probably way off the mark, you can look at their charts on Meteociel.I wouldnt mind a repeat either
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12-08-2013, 21:39   #9
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Some beefy windstorms please.
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12-08-2013, 21:50   #10
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JAMSTEC says northern/scandy blocking on their 2013-14 outputs.........

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File Type: gif temp2.glob.DJF2014.1jul2013.gif (67.0 KB, 266 views)

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12-08-2013, 23:59   #11
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So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?
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13-08-2013, 01:47   #12
maquiladora
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So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?
We've already had two winters with very severe cold and snow within the past 5 years. Statistically it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat of those winters again for quite a while.
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13-08-2013, 04:04   #13
 
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Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather
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13-08-2013, 05:18   #14
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Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather
I'd much prefer a NOV/DEC 2010 scenario from a financial perspective, which was exactly a month. ie. First Snow in Bray 26th November with Rapid Rain induced thaw on Stephens' Day. The rest of that Winter was reasonably mild after January IIRC. Well certainly nothing like 2013 which was cold enough for central heating till near end of MAY !!

The heating needs to be on most of the day come December whatever the year. Doesn't make much difference if its 7ºc damp and gloomy or -5ºc icy/snow and crisp blue skies. So Heating Bill wise DEC 2010 wasn't much different to any other year. I usually found that our OCT/NOV & FEB/MAR bill would be up a bit on our April-Sept bills. Our DEC/JAN bill would be the big one. Our FEB/MAR bill would be around the same as the slightly up OCT/NOV. In our case heating a 6 bed 2500sq/ft Victorian house that meant our April-Sept gas bills would be about €200 (Gas cooking and hot water), our Oct/Nov about €250, our Dec/Jan about €400-€500, our Feb/Mar back to about €250. 2013 was Oct/Nov €250, Dec/Jan €500, Feb/Mar €500, April/May €450. So instead of 1 big one and 2 slightly above yearly average bills in a usual year we had 3 big ones and 1 slightly above yearly average. Didn't clear the last of the 'Winter' gas bills till a few days into July FFS.

So Yeah! Gimme a short sharp shock like NOV/DEC 2010 any year over a long drawn out Winter of nothingness like 2013.

Last edited by Calibos; 13-08-2013 at 05:22.
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13-08-2013, 12:43   #15
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my preferred choice would be an unseasonably warm autumn with temperatures hitting 21C during first week of october followed by a rapid transition into winter within a matter of 2 to 3 weeks and heavy snowfall in November and December, similar to 2010.
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