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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

  • 11-08-2013 4:26pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 22 Allanjjmurphy


    Has anybody any theories on earths weather and do you have any predictions for WINTER 2013/2014?

    Mod Note

    To all Forum Users

    Everyone has the right to post here whether they use main-stream, model-based approaches to forecasting or other, perhaps less orthodox methodologies. Opposing approaches and theories can make for interesting discussions and a vibrant forum if they remain civil.

    I would ask everyone to try to ensure that their posts follow the spirit and intent of our forum charter

    To put it simply, play the ball not the man, challenge posts by all means but refrain from personal attacks, use the report post button if you find a post objectionable, DO NOT respond on thread.

    Finally, if you find that a fellow users views irritate you, simply add them to your ignore list

    Thanks


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Best thread of the year :D Bit early though :P We gota get through Autumn first!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum :)

    In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

    I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭Dick Masterson


    I'm not satisfied with Summer yet. Need more sunshine. Good growing weather lately, though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭omicron


    Popoutman wrote: »
    We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum :)

    In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

    I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.

    Bastardi hasn't been very credible over the last few winters I would have thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS:D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭Dick Masterson


    a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS:D

    Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.
    By the CFS but they are probably way off the mark, you can look at their charts on Meteociel.I wouldnt mind a repeat either


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Some beefy windstorms please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭wing52


    JAMSTEC says northern/scandy blocking on their 2013-14 outputs.........

    :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

    People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
    People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
    People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
    People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
    Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Lucreto wrote: »
    So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

    People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
    People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
    People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
    People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
    Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?

    We've already had two winters with very severe cold and snow within the past 5 years. Statistically it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat of those winters again for quite a while.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

    The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Harps wrote: »
    Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

    The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather

    I'd much prefer a NOV/DEC 2010 scenario from a financial perspective, which was exactly a month. ie. First Snow in Bray 26th November with Rapid Rain induced thaw on Stephens' Day. The rest of that Winter was reasonably mild after January IIRC. Well certainly nothing like 2013 which was cold enough for central heating till near end of MAY !!

    The heating needs to be on most of the day come December whatever the year. Doesn't make much difference if its 7ºc damp and gloomy or -5ºc icy/snow and crisp blue skies. So Heating Bill wise DEC 2010 wasn't much different to any other year. I usually found that our OCT/NOV & FEB/MAR bill would be up a bit on our April-Sept bills. Our DEC/JAN bill would be the big one. Our FEB/MAR bill would be around the same as the slightly up OCT/NOV. In our case heating a 6 bed 2500sq/ft Victorian house that meant our April-Sept gas bills would be about €200 (Gas cooking and hot water), our Oct/Nov about €250, our Dec/Jan about €400-€500, our Feb/Mar back to about €250. 2013 was Oct/Nov €250, Dec/Jan €500, Feb/Mar €500, April/May €450. So instead of 1 big one and 2 slightly above yearly average bills in a usual year we had 3 big ones and 1 slightly above yearly average. Didn't clear the last of the 'Winter' gas bills till a few days into July FFS.

    So Yeah! Gimme a short sharp shock like NOV/DEC 2010 any year over a long drawn out Winter of nothingness like 2013. :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    my preferred choice would be an unseasonably warm autumn with temperatures hitting 21C during first week of october followed by a rapid transition into winter within a matter of 2 to 3 weeks and heavy snowfall in November and December, similar to 2010.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭Dick Masterson


    Gonzo wrote: »
    my preferred choice would be an unseasonably warm autumn with temperatures hitting 21C during first week of october followed by a rapid transition into winter within a matter of 2 to 3 weeks and heavy snowfall in November and December, similar to 2010.

    Those be the ingredients for thundersnow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Calibos wrote: »
    So Yeah! Gimme a short sharp shock like NOV/DEC 2010 any year over a long drawn out Winter of nothingness like 2013. :D

    I'd hardly call 2010 short, its just about the most prolonged cold spell I think I've ever experienced!

    Agreed with the rest though, a short & sweet cold spell in early Winter would do nicely, I always find that I get fed up with cold weather by the end of January so a good northerly blast in December would be perfect. Throw in a few proper storms after that and some good crisp sunny weather in January and everyone should be happy!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Harps wrote: »
    I'd hardly call 2010 short, its just about the most prolonged cold spell I think I've ever experienced!

    Agreed with the rest though, a short & sweet cold spell in early Winter would do nicely, I always find that I get fed up with cold weather by the end of January so a good northerly blast in December would be perfect. Throw in a few proper storms after that and some good crisp sunny weather in January and everyone should be happy!

    Ooooh yeah!!:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Well, well, well... a winter thread! About time! I think last year it was set up in June :-)
    Good to see the snow already hitting the hills in Svalbard/Longyearbyen already (when the clouds lift)... http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php
    May it progress, deepen, and share it's whiteness with us for both the meteorological & the astronomical winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    We've already had two winters with very severe cold and snow within the past 5 years. Statistically it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat of those winters again for quite a while.

    Two?

    My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

    Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭joebloggs32


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Two?

    My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

    Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

    We had a very big chill for Dec/Jan in 09/10 and it followed up again in Nov/Dec 2010.
    As a teacher I had no snow days ever before and then had numerous ones two academic years in a row.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    It has been a long while since we had a winter with prolonged calm/frosty and sunny weather. I don't mind what we get as long as it isn't too heavy on the horizontal wet muck.

    The weather has been weird this year, the atlantic has been a strangely tame beast, since spring time even.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Two?

    My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

    Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

    2009/10 was the coldest winter in the past 50 years, I was in Letterkenny at the time and we had lying snow on and off from around the 18th of December right through to mid February.

    2008/09 was cold as well with quite a few snowfall events so we've really been spoiled in the past few years


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,244 ✭✭✭lycan238


    Oh yeah a repeat of 2009/2010 please. Was in my second year in College in Cavan and despite the bad weather only failed to turn up for one optional days classes/lectures.

    hows that for dedication @joebloggs32


  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Looking at the sea ice,

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    If some early autumn storms hit, the ice could be as low as last year. Would be interested to see what affects if any low sea ice will have this Winter.

    Loved the summer and would love a snowy cold winter too. Greedy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Two?

    My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

    Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Winter2009-10.pdf

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/ColdSpell10.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Aiel


    As someone already said it was June last year when a winter thread was started.What's wrong with all of ye this year,slow off the blocks:).I think i'll start a Summer 2014 thread in September:).


  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    I understand that the link below is a little OT. Sea ice again.

    However, the graphs cover allot of weather information that relates to winter for Ireland.

    https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Give me a foot of snow followed by a week of very cold weather and i'll be happy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Give me a foot of snow followed by a week of very cold weather and i'll be happy.

    Sorted bud. Done and Done.;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Snow and storms please. As long as it isn't bland and dreary for weeks and weeks on end which has happened a lot with me over the last few Winters. As long as its interesting and action packed I'm happy.

    I can already smell the fear,tantrums,arguments and the good old disappointment of the upcoming Irish Winter not to mention the sleepless nights,waiting on the next model run and the one after etc etc. And how could I forget the infamous lampost. It's a vicious cycle/mentally and physical draining but we wouldn't have it any other way...


This discussion has been closed.
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