WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Snowmaker

He's actually hitting the nail on the head.. I mean not just everyone can make this acute observation: "The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow..." ... kind of leaves me with a blank expression on my face as if my plumber just observed that "turning on a tap is likely to release water from it..."

pad199207

Snowmaker wrote: »

He's actually hitting the nail on the head.. I mean not just everyone can make this acute observation: "The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow..." ... kind of leaves me with a blank expression on my face as if my plumber just observed that "turning on a tap is likely to release water from it..."

If it does happen I will email him personally!

What a read though!

Lumi

Larbre34 wrote: »

Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?

You're perfectly entitled to your view Larbre34 and the following is not directed at you personally however your post gives me the opportunity to raise an issue that the Forum Mods have been discussing over the last few days

To all Forum Users

Ken Ring has a following in Ireland who enjoy hearing about his thoughts on the weather - the popular media obviously recognise his appeal otherwise they wouldn't feature his forecasts as often as they do.

His methods and theories are not everyone's 'cup of tea' and I know that many who post here prefer a more main-stream, model-based approach to forecasting and are critical of Ken's methodologies.

However, everyone has the right to post here and opposing approaches and theories can make for interesting discussions and a vibrant forum if they remain civil. I would ask everyone to try to ensure that their posts follow the spirit and intent of our forum charter

To put it simply, play the ball not the man, challenge posts by all means but refrain from personal attacks, use the report post button if you find a post objectionable, Do Not respond on thread.
Finally, if a fellow users views irritate you, add them to your ignore list

Thanks

Lucreto

James Madden, Ken Ring, Mark Vogan and Joe Bastardi can all be lumped in at chancers in my opinion but they are entitled to give their views. People actually pay for their works and I would rather people be prepared even with long shot predictions like these. As Lumi said all view points on predictions are wellcome here.

It is far too early to say what the winter will bring but it does get me excited hearing lots of snow, Maddens prediction even if its one in a million chance is like a fanfiction.

I was taken in my Madden after the 2010 snow but he like many other have been wrong since. I prefer the wait and see approach.

tylercollins

Anyone noticed the article from 2011 in the Daily Mail floating about Facebook? Driving me insane everytime I see it

Lucreto

tylercollins wrote: »

Anyone noticed the article from 2011 in the Daily Mail floating about Facebook? Driving me insane everytime I see it

Which one? I see a few different ones. But I am guessing it is Maddens prediction for heavy snow and it turned out a mild Winter.

jaffusmax

Back to science now !

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/winter-forecast-201314/


'Preliminary Forecast
At this stage, we are only able to offer our very preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter. We should be able to provide you with our more in depth preliminary winter forecast during the Autumn, before releasing the final forecast some time in November.
At present, our expectations are of a cooler than average winter, carrying on the trend from the last few winters, with snowfall likely to be more frequent than was the case during the milder winters of the 90′s/00′s. December currently looks like it will finish slightly above average temperature wise, though rather unsettled conditions are likely to dominate.
January and February, as things stand, look likely to finish below average temperature wise, with some frequent colder spells particularly during February. The first of these cold spells at present would look likely to set in around the middle 2 weeks of January, with a more generally colder than average theme expected through the month of February as a whole.
How are our forecasts derived?'

Also a Long Vid but very very interesting.

Lucreto

US Farmers' Almanac predicts a nasty 2013-2014 winter

jaffusmax

For those whom cannot be bothered with Models, Ken Ring, Madden, Met Eireann, Met Office...................................... use one of these and you wont go wrong this winter.

shootie

I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.

Killeenadeema

It will be cold earlier this year (November / December) with snow in these months. It will be a very windy new year as has been the case for last number of years

dopolahpec

shootie wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.

No me neither, never, even the ones that predict a mild few months at the beginning or the end are sure to throw in the bone of at least one 'severe' month to get people talking or what? I don't know. The best months for model watching are December and January, and up until Valentine's Day, at least when you see the cold uppers you know they will be reflected on the ground. After that you just know it is going to be second prize.

jaffusmax

Out in la la land but oh my!!!

average_runner

Killeenadeema wrote: »

It will be cold earlier this year (November / December) with snow in these months. It will be a very windy new year as has been the case for last number of years

That's the opposite to last years winter weather. The snow came in Jan/Feb

Mr Benevolent

shootie wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.

Which strongly suggests that these winter forecasts are little more than wishful thinking.

Daniel2590

I'm predicting these next 3 months (December to February) to be cooler than the rest of the months of the year, with a possibility of frost at times. It may or may not be wet and windy at times.

jaffusmax

Another Vid from Simon Keeling highlighting the idea that this upcoming Winter is shaping up to be quite different than we are used to based on what the models are churning out. But as he says it is not a forecast that we WILL get a very cold winter but there is no denying that the atmosphere appears to be becoming more conductive to high pressure blocking to the North of Europe.

Also

'LONELY SUNSPOT, QUIET SUN: The sunspot number has dropped to its lowest level of the year. Solitary sunspot AR1841 sits all alone at the center of an otherwise blank solar disk. It is quiet and poses no threat for strong flares:'

http://spaceweather.com/

And Finally some eye candy

Blizzard 2010

That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter

Mr Benevolent

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter

I believe you're right.

jaffusmax

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter

I know I am posting alot of the positive info regarding cold potential this year but you cannot argue with reality!

DAMN YOU REALITY! :mad:

jaffusmax

Neg NAO predicted by some this year. I just came across this chaps blog but his forecast does hold some credence!

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/north-atlantic-oscillation-2013-2014.html




Apologies I am on a roll

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=848

Simon Keeling

Here are the probabilities given this morning, and I thought you might like to see them too.

- Very cold (mean temperature >2C below normal) 25%
- Cold (mean temperatures >1C below normal) 30%
- Normal (mean temperatures +1 to -1C) 20%
- Warm (mean temperatures >1C above normal 15%
- Very warm (mean temperatures >5C above normal 10%

Caff Caff

Daily mail have their media splurge of cold ramping out early this year... Not as early as some years mind you

market://details?id=com.dailymail.tablet

Kenring

Snowmaker wrote: »

Well, for the UK... here's what James Madman thinks will happen - The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February..

Yes it is what I have told Irish radio stations is likely to happen across Ireland. I believe that will be the worst of winter. Winter is again close to being typical for Ireland, not expected to be severe, but likely to serve some very cold spells with rain and snow, for instance in that third week of February.

Blizzard 2010

Kenring wrote: »

Yes it is what I have told Irish radio stations is likely to happen across Ireland. I believe that will be the worst of winter. Winter is again close to being typical for Ireland, not expected to be severe, but likely to serve some very cold spells with rain and snow, for instance in that third week of February.

Hi Ken,Are you also going for a cold winter? The Azores high and how it plays will be a big part of our winter particulary the first part. That's how I think winter will pan out. I personally respect your views

Kenring

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Hi Ken,Are you also going for a cold winter? The Azores high and how it plays will be a big part of our winter particulary the first part. That's how I think winter will pan out. I personally respect your views

Despite one or two frost days, this year they may be less likely in either September or October. October frosts are not unusual in Ireland around the last week, but probably not this year.
November should bring widespread frosts across Ireland, in my view, 4-8 November, 18-21 November and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros in the last few days of November with good snowfalls on November's last day.
December frosts will probably not occur before the third week. I have the cold dry time around 17th-23rd, give or take a day or two.
The first week in January may be very cold and frosty because of the combination of new moon and the second closest perigee for 2014. That week may bring some of the coldest temperatures of winter.
Then I expect coldest times of months to be the second weeks of February, March and April.

Loughc

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now!

jaffusmax

Loughc wrote: »

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now!

Why? I respect people follow Ken but Winter has not even started and Kens forecast is only one perspective with his own methods!

I will be model watching and checking up on professional weather forecasters predictions myself!

Kenring

Loughc wrote: »

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now!

I think it is possible this time for some to get a wee flurry or two of snow on Xmas, but it is impossible to speak for every valley, nook and hollow. North-facing elevated inland locations will always get the snow if any is about. But I don't think many if any will be huge dumps. It is more likely to be either frosty, occasional sleet, hail, cold rain of cold fog. The term "white Xmas" is a bit subjective. To me it means a thick blanket of snow as far as the eye can see, but that may be just me. And I can't see that arriving on the 25th.

Kenring

jaffusmax wrote: »

I will be..checking up on professional weather forecasters predictions myself!

Very good idea! So - are they saying anything at all about Xmas?

jaffusmax

"The maximum amount of lying snow ever recorded on Christmas Day was 27 centimetres at Casement Aerodrome in 2010.
At Dublin Airport, there have been 12 Christmas Days with snowfall since 1941 (1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2004). The statistical likelihood of snow falling on Christmas Day at Dublin Airport is approximately once every 5.9 years. However, the only Christmas Day at the airport ever to have lying snow at 09:00 was 2010 (although no snow actually fell that day), with 20 centimetres recorded."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Christmas_(weather)#White_Christmases_in_the_United_Kingdom

Statistically a white Xmas in Ireland are pretty rare but more importantly not impossible!

Kenring wrote: »

Very good idea! So - are they saying anything at all about Xmas?

No body is sticking their necks out just mostly predicting colder than average but as always these are mostly UK based forecasts and do not take into account Irelands more westerly location!