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11-11-2012, 16:08   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning



Updated


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At present the system does not appear like it will be 'extreme' however the predicted path of the storm does bring a sense of alarm as any upgrades in its intensity over the coming days could bring the most severe conditions to Ireland.

At present we can be 60-70% confident of a storm near 985mb tracking just to our northwest late Sunday.

Current projected conditions (as per UKM/GFS)

Period of heavy and intense rainfall - Upto 50mm of rain possible.

Severe winds. Wind gusts as high as 70mph in association with the approach of the warm front.

Watching the possible development of a storm system. A wave exits south of Newfoundland and looks in a very favourable position for development as it tracks eastward towards Ireland. There is also a jet streak in the region which could aid explosive development.

ECM has the system but doesn't develop it dramatically.

Lets see what tonight's runs make of it.

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Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 22-11-2012 at 10:19.
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11-11-2012, 16:44   #2
 
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Yehaaaaaaaw anything but this boreing weather
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11-11-2012, 17:41   #3
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Yehaaaaaaaw anything but this boreing weather
Amen to that. This year has just been unending gloop since the end of March.
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11-11-2012, 22:21   #4
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18z GFS a bit more developmental with this.

Definitely something to watch over the coming week. Exact developments won't be certain until much later in the week.

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11-11-2012, 22:25   #5
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Breezy to the southwest......

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11-11-2012, 22:30   #6
 
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Winds hitting 70-80kph in W Cork, S Kerry on the latest GFS run

System centre is positioned slightly north of the 12z run
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11-11-2012, 22:36   #7
 
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Every single model run for the past few days has been coming up with a totally different solution for it, ECMWF still doesn't even develop it into a storm so a lot of uncertainty

The 18Z GFS is the first run to really track it over us as a proper storm

Looks like a direct hit on the 18Z NOGAPS as well

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12-11-2012, 00:35   #8
 
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Very few of the ECMWF ensembles showing anything significant for next weekend but most showing some sort of sharp drop in MSLP values to our west. Going to be an interesting to watch nontheless. My head says side with the ECMWF, but heart instinctively sides with the GFS as the weather has been incredibly boring over the last few years weeks so please GFS, be right!

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspe...!2009112700!!/
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12-11-2012, 08:27   #9
 
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This mornings run..



ECMWF still doesn't do much with it and there's a lot of variation in the ensemble runs so odds at the moment are probably against it
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12-11-2012, 08:47   #10
 
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My iPhone app show 40 to 50km/h winds all day from early morning through Sunday night 18th Nov.

I had spotted a severe looking rain line from last Friday but not showing too much rain?

Data NCEP/NOAA

Last edited by gbee; 12-11-2012 at 09:17.
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12-11-2012, 09:06   #11
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BOM:



GEM:



ECM:



ECM is really having none of it !
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12-11-2012, 12:32   #12
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If this storm happens,,is it going to be a "wet and windy" storm,,or one with that horrible snow stuff?
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12-11-2012, 12:39   #13
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Hi All

Just wondering from those with a bit more knowledge.

Why is the ECM not showing what the other models are ?
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12-11-2012, 12:46   #14
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If this storm happens,,is it going to be a "wet and windy" storm,,or one with that horrible snow stuff?
.
Wind and rain.
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12-11-2012, 14:00   #15
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Wind and rain.


Excellent..The best kind.

Thank you.
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