Jacking in dole for maths gambling sysyem

looper333 · 21-07-2012 6:16pm

WumBuster wrote: »

How much could you lose in a day, realistically if things dont go to plan?

Realistically the max that could be lost in a day is around 400 with 10 euros being 1 unit, so 40 units. The biggest loss to date is 274

dirtyden · 21-07-2012 6:20pm

WumBuster wrote: »

Well personally there is no way i would consider backing a team 2 down to score 3 goals and win, with 15 mins to go at 10-1. Not even for 100-1 tbh.
There must be some mugs on those exchanges if this is the case

I would have to agree, cant see any better than 70/1 for that particular scenario ever especially in something like a european championships, it just does not happen. Why would anyone be backing it ever?

looper333 · 21-07-2012 6:29pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZpJ7yUPwdU

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 6:39pm

looper333 wrote: »

Realistically the max that could be lost in a day is around 400 with 10 euros being 1 unit, so 40 units. The biggest loss to date is 274

The reality is the bookies love people like you(and myself in the past) who think they have got it figured after wasting time finding ways to crack their system. Ok you have had only one really bad day yet, but who's to say you couldnt have 10 bad days in a row, down the line? Dont get me wrong the idea of making a living as a professional gambler, living the high life is very attractive and was once a dream of mine, but then i realised it just wasnt going to happen.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 6:50pm

WumBuster wrote: »

The reality is the bookies love people like you(and myself in the past) who think they have got it figured after wasting time finding ways to crack their system. Ok you have had only one really bad day yet, but who's to say you couldnt have 10 bad days in a row, down the line? Dont get me wrong the idea of making a living as a professional gambler, living the high life is very attractive and was once a dream of mine, but then i realised it just wasnt going to happen.

I wanted to be a football player in the world cup with Ireland but eventually i realised no matter how hard i tried it just wasn't going to happen as i just wasn't good enough to crack it. Mt mate on the other hand had same dream and he did make it... so many millions had the same dream but just couldn't achieve it, i guess they were just not good enough either to make it. My mate is one of the very few who did, good job he believed and worked harder than most aswell as having the talent... then again i know another guy who was much better than him but he turned to drink and achieved nothing but regrets and a begrudging attitude and negative outlook.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 7:04pm

looper333 wrote: »

I wanted to be a football player in the world cup with Ireland but eventually i realised no matter how hard i tried it just wasn't going to happen as i just wasn't good enough to crack it. Mt mate on the other hand had same dream and he did make it... so many millions had the same dream but just couldn't achieve it, i guess they were just not good enough either to make it. My mate is one of the very few who did, good job he believed and worked harder than most aswell as having the talent... then again i know another guy who was much better than him but he turned to drink and achieved nothing but regrets and a begrudging attitude and negative outlook.

I think its just about knowing and accepting your limitations, hard as it may be. I once dreamed aswell about becoming a footballer,I wasnt good enough, I dreamed about becoming a singer at once stage, but Im a crap singer, becoming a gambler too, but Im a bad gambler. Yes its true, that if you work really hard and dedicate yourself to it you can be succesful in it. many people are. But gambling in particlarily, sorry is just a scam to con people out of their money. The only foolproof system in gambling is the one the bookies use.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 7:12pm

WumBuster wrote: »

I think its just about knowing and accepting your limitations, hard as it may be. I once dreamed aswell about becoming a footballer,I wasnt good enough, I dreamed about becoming a singer at once stage, but Im a crap singer, becoming a gambler too, but Im a bad gambler. Yes its true, that if you work really hard and dedicate yourself to it you can be succesful in it. many people are. But gambling in particlarily, sorry is just a scam to con people out of their money. The only foolproof system in gambling is the one the bookies use.

You should watch video i posted a few posts ago if you haven't already.

What we believe is ultimately what we will be, if your sense are so dulled by the rituals of brainwashing from birth then your eyes will never be opened to the endless possibilities we can create. Numbers are everything, figuring them out was never going to be an easy game. The internet exchange changed the dimensions, a more even playing field.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 7:19pm

looper333 wrote: »

You should watch video i posted a few posts ago if you haven't already.

What we believe is ultimately what we will be, if your sense are so dulled by the rituals of brainwashing from birth then your eyes will never be opened to the endless possibilities we can create. Numbers are everything, figuring them out was never going to be an easy game. The internet exchange changed the dimensions, a more even playing field.

ya i saw it. And i agree, life is what you make it and you're mindset dictates everything. You can even change your personality to that of a succesful person and things can happen for you. Im all for postive thinking and people maximising their potential in whatever field that may be. But at the same time you got to maintain a certain level of realism about life. Some people are out to scam and con you and any naivety you show will be exposed. And thats not being negative, its being assertive.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 7:43pm

WumBuster wrote: »

ya i saw it. And i agree, life is what you make it and you're mindset dictates everything. You can even change your personality to that of a succesful person and things can happen for you. Im all for postive thinking and people maximising their potential in whatever field that may be. But at the same time you got to maintain a certain level of realism about life. Some people are out to scam and con you and any naivety you show will be exposed. And thats not being negative, its being assertive.

Fair enough but as stated by posters already, Bookies make money... there are successful punters out there doing it for years... bots can even make money... we know this to be true. So why would you believe nobody else can be successful ? Only negative mindset can think 100% nobody could ever win consistently. Exchanges take away the house edge , do you disagree with that ? It is fact. Human emotions is what stop so many in their pursuits along with bad methods. I only hope to gain the discipline to maximise this equations potential. Will it all change when in live play ? That would introduce an element of ' we are all doomed whatever we do ' This does not figure into all those successful peoples methods so it simply can not exist. Will i hit 10 bad days in a row and lose 2k and wipe out half profits so far... time will tell but my answer to that is the equation expects bad days on average 2 a week, it is math and math can not be argued with, i have no doubt one week i will hit 5 bad days in a row but the math tells me i will also hit 15 or 20 good days in a row.

ceegee · 21-07-2012 7:45pm

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

CiaranC wrote: »

You dont do it, of course.

If such a simple thing were a certainty on the exchanges, bots would have sucked the value from it long ago. Do you think the bot writers just overlooked your particular market?

I'd like a bit less sarcasm and a bit more maths. Disprove the maths, or get out.

Bot are automated bets which you have to direct the betting. That argument is another you can never game the system argument, roundly disproved throughout this thread.

Look I have already given the bloody stats. There are almost no - i.e. 1 in 1 few hundred games, or a thousand - where a team which is 2-0 down in the last Q wins. That would mean the game becomes a 5 goal game at the minimum, statistically unlikely anyway, and that there are 3 goals in the last 20 minutes, statistically unlikely.

Thats all higher than the odds you generally get, normally about 10-1. If punters get wise then the odds will get higher, but at the moment people think that putting a tenner to win 100 is worth it, sure its only 2-0 down, their cognitive bias is that it happens more than it does, because they remember it more.

This is not one I use, in fact I dont use anything, its an example of something which could work. There are better and better ploys. The downside is it takes a lot of time. So I couldnt be assed.

Here is an for example from a smallish sample:

In the world cup of 2010 nobody came back from a 2 goal deficit, which you would expect as there were only 64 games. To check look for a game which ends - at the least - at 3-2. The losers need at least 2 goals. There are three only, and no case did the loser at the three quarter stage get to win. In Uruaguy-Germeny there was never a two goal gap, and in Slovakia-Italy you get what you expect. Slovakia, leading by 2 goals at 73 minutes, wins. You would easily get 10-1 for Italy at 73 minutes, possibly higher given the teams that are in it. Similarly with Uruaguay-Holland, holland ahead by 2 at 73 minutes go on to win.

Your sample size isnt 64 games, most of those games didnt have a 2 goal gap at 75 minutes so are irrelevant for your system. Your basing your results on a handful of games - far too few to draw any sound statistical evidence from

Having checked the results, there were only 8 games that had someone 2 goals up on 75 minutes:

Australia 2 – 1 Serbia
Denmark 1 – 3 Japan
Slovakia 3 – 2 Italy
Brazil 2 – 1 North Korea
North Korea 0 – 3 Côte d'Ivoire
Spain 2 – 0 Honduras
Argentina 3–1 Mexico
Uruguay 2–3 Netherlands

ceegee · 21-07-2012 7:48pm

looper333 wrote: »

WumBuster wrote: »

ya i saw it. And i agree, life is what you make it and you're mindset dictates everything. You can even change your personality to that of a succesful person and things can happen for you. Im all for postive thinking and people maximising their potential in whatever field that may be. But at the same time you got to maintain a certain level of realism about life. Some people are out to scam and con you and any naivety you show will be exposed. And thats not being negative, its being assertive.

Fair enough but as stated by posters already, Bookies make money... there are successful punters out there doing it for years... bots can even make money... we know this to be true. So why would you believe nobody else can be successful ? Only negative mindset can think 100% nobody could ever win consistently. Exchanges take away the house edge , do you disagree with that ? It is fact. Human emotions is what stop so many in their pursuits along with bad methods. I only hope to gain the discipline to maximise this equations potential. Will it all change when in live play ? That would introduce an element of ' we are all doomed whatever we do ' This does not figure into all those successful peoples methods so it simply can not exist. Will i hit 10 bad days in a row and lose 2k and wipe out half profits so far... time will tell but my answer to that is the equation expects bad days on average 2 a week, it is math and math can not be argued with, i have no doubt one week i will hit 5 bad days in a row but the math tells me i will also hit 15 or 20 good days in a row.

Your equation seems to believe evening and sunday races are completely different to other races. This is reason enough for all of us to assume its not as fool proof as you believe

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 7:53pm

ceegee wrote: »

Your equation seems to believe evening and sunday races are completely different to other races. This is reason enough for all of us to assume its not as fool proof as you believe

I pretty much dissproved his argument on the previous page and it took very little maths, just common sense. But ya, the sample size could be very unrepresentitive and is small to say the least.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 7:54pm

ceegee wrote: »

Your equation seems to believe evening and sunday races are completely different to other races. This is reason enough for all of us to assume its not as fool proof as you believe

I have already explained the Sunday thing is based on experience and factors i believe alter that day slightly to others but is still something i am analyzing but i really think a day off is necessary too. Evening racing i have not studies as again i don't want to be working all day but i also believe there are a few factors to evening racing that differ to afternoon racing but as i say i have not done neough research into that. I am happy to go with the results an dprofits from afternoon racing only, 3 or 4 hours a day.

Time will tell what happens and i will update all results honestly. It is 18 week snow remember , not 2 or 3.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 7:56pm

WumBuster wrote: »

I pretty much dissproved his argument a few pages back and it took very little maths, just common sense. But ya, the sample size could be very unrepresentitive and is small to say the least.

You disproved nothing, you simply don't understand the reasoning. Try concentrating on the results rather than extra races.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 7:59pm

looper333 wrote: »

You disproved nothing, you simply don't understand the reasoning. Try concentrating on the results rather than extra races.

No, sorry, i meant the other poster, Duggy's Housemate who was talking about the 2-0 down system

BornToKill · 21-07-2012 8:13pm

looper333 wrote: »

Higher than that of a sheep type person who settles for a few hundred euros a week doing a meaningless job all day, being told what to do all day by somebody else that they can't stand.

If it's a straight choice between that and gambling the last of my dole money, which should be going to pay the ESB bill, then I think I'd try the meaningless job.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 8:18pm

BornToKill wrote: »

If it's a straight choice between that and gambling the last of my dole money, which should be going to pay the EBS bill, then I think I'd try the meaningless job.

Goo for you, if everyone thought like me the world would crumble, if everyone chose a meaningless job over a bit of balls and belief then the world wouldn't evolve much to be worth crying over if it did crumble. There probably wouldn't be too many meaningless jobs if people didn't take risks to set up businesses. We all need each other.

humbert · 21-07-2012 8:30pm

I'm starting to suspect that there is no 'system' and loopy is just batshit insane.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 8:39pm

humbert wrote: »

I'm starting to suspect that there is no 'system' and loopy is just batshit insane.

or maybe that is what you try and convince yourself of to justify endless hours working down the coal mine

BornToKill · 21-07-2012 8:40pm

looper333 wrote: »

Goo for you, if everyone thought like me the world would crumble, if everyone chose a meaningless job over a bit of balls and belief then the world wouldn't evolve much to be worth crying over if it did crumble. There probably wouldn't be too many meaningless jobs if people didn't take risks to set up businesses. We all need each other.

If everyone thought like you, there wouldn't be any dole. I don't see any mention of you having set up a business or of you employing people. Just sounds to me like you've watched an 'Oceans' marathon and I really doubt that I need you at all in any way whatsoever.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 8:43pm

BornToKill wrote: »

If everyone thought like you, there wouldn't be any dole. I don't see any mention of you having set up a business or of you employing people. Just sounds to me like you've watched an 'Oceans' marathon and I really doubt that I need you at all in any way whatsoever.

You got to ask yourself why you are so resentful for no obvious reason to somebody on a forum. Believe me the world could do without people like you.

21-07-2012 8:47pm

looper333 wrote: »

I have been studying 6 hours daily for 17 weeks now after a couple of years researching and trying out different math equations in search of a winning formula. After numerous tweaks i have one that has produced the following results of paper trail only.( all based on horse racing but no knowledge of racing needed, only math)

Week 1 = 145
2= 245
3= 148
4= 438 ( 1 day)
5 = 447
6 = 198
7 = 277
8 = 501
9 = 634
10= -201
11= 444
12= 456
13= 322
14= 315
15= 356
16= -57
17= 70
Only red weeks were full weeks Mon to Sunday while the rest were from Monday to Saturday as in rules of math system with week 4 only needing one day to reach target as with math system rule.

Current week is at the moment standing on 163 profit for week

The Math equation system is all my own work and did not come easily, took years to get this far. I wouldn't give the equation to anybody for any price.

All results are equal to one unit equaling 10 euros so if i double the unit then you can double results outcome per week.

To start the system in real play a bank of 50 units would more than cover any bad period to date and keep the system ticking over with results above. ie 1 unit = 10 euros needs 500 euros start bank

It is only 18 week sin play paper trail so how long before i can say this could actually keep working, i am still waiting for the big nosedive but although last 2 weeks were ropey it still recovered and turned out not too bad.

I currently owe 250 in rent and 230 on ESB and i currently have 350 euros to my name after a nice win on a 15 euros accumulator.

Do i pay my bills or start playing for real with my current bank at 5 euros per unit until i increase bank. I won't get thrown out of apartment just yet but i am getting letters threatening eviction if not paid. It would take a few months to evict me legally and i am sure i could get away with esb for 4 months at least. It could take months before i get 300 odd bank again to start with as times are very hard and there just is no jobs although i admit i would not take a low paying job working with people who can hardly count. I have had very well paid jobs of over 2k a week before but not for a number of years.

Do i just go for this like a true Irishman or be a wimp and just pay bills and keep paper trailing for a few months until i can maybe get up a big enough bank to start. Saving small amounts of money a week is impossible unless i have a lot coming in.

If i do it and results remain positive then how long before i cut off security of dole ?

The best bit was when you did the maths

BornToKill · 21-07-2012 8:47pm

looper333 wrote: »

Goo for you

Do I get a Cadbury's Creme Egg then?

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 8:49pm

Come on looper. Dont get prickly you knew full well when you started this thread that you would get such responses, based on how preposterous your idea sounds.

Ok, put it this way. For centuries, people having been trying to find ways to beat casino's and bookmakers, many have tried and failed and all these establishments are still standing, if someone did make that break through and find a way, gambling as we know it would not exist today. To come on here to say that you are the man who's it all figured out, is as I said, preposterous.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 8:58pm

WumBuster wrote: »

Come on looper. Dont get prickly you knew full well when you started this thread that you would get such responses, based on how preposterous your idea sounds.

Ok, put it this way. For centuries, people having been trying to find ways to beat casino's and bookmakers, many have tried and failed and all these establishments are still standing, if someone did make that break through and find a way, gambling as we know it would not exist today. To come on here to say that you are the man who's it all figured out, is as I said, preposterous.

People who beat the casinos usually get banned, beaten uo or become so rich they quit while ahead. Bookies don't get beat because they have enough mug punters to cater for those who can make steady cash plus they have the odds in their favor unlike exchanges. We done this already..

I only get prickly when pricked.

I came on and said i had a promsing equation and here are the results and my current scenario with no finace. I was quite honest about that and so could not be suggesting i have yet got it figured out. It was you and others who perceive it that way.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 8:59pm

BornToKill wrote: »

Do I get a Cadbury's Creme Egg then?

Only if you do 3 hours overtime with fat betty on Sunday but you will have to fight her for it

Al Capwned · 21-07-2012 9:08pm

Oh, person of appropriate user name, go for it - sure what could go wrong?

BunShopVoyeur · 21-07-2012 9:19pm

Fûcking nutjob. This is hilarious

BornToKill · 21-07-2012 9:21pm

looper333 wrote: »

I wouldn't give the equation to anybody for any price.

Just as well you're not selling 'cos I'm not buying this at all.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 9:22pm

looper333 wrote: »

People who beat the casinos usually get banned, beaten uo or become so rich they quit while ahead. Bookies don't get beat because they have enough mug punters to cater for those who can make steady cash plus they have the odds in their favor unlike exchanges. We done this already..

I only get prickly when pricked.

I came on and said i had a promsing equation and here are the results and my current scenario with no finace. I was quite honest about that and so could not be suggesting i have yet got it figured out. It was you and others who perceive it that way.

Well even if you do have a foolproof system worked out, there's so many other things against you. Discipline is one, which is obviously massive. Also, if you are taking money each day form a bookies or betting site(s) do you think they wont be noticing? They study betting patterns closely from people who are consistently winning and in no time you wont be able to get anywhere to take a bet from you.

If you want you can PM me your system you can and ill give it an appraisal . You have my guarantee that I wont be doing anything with it anyway, cos Im out of that game, even if i did come across a winning system i would do it anyway cos I know I wouldnt have the discipiline to see it through.

21-07-2012 9:24pm

looper333 wrote: »

I came on and said i had a promsing equation and here are the results and my current scenario with no finace. I was quite honest about that and so could not be suggesting i have yet got it figured out. It was you and others who perceive it that way.

And what was the purpose of you posting exactly?

looper333 · 21-07-2012 9:28pm

WumBuster wrote: »

Well even if you do have a foolproof system worked out, there's so many other things against you. Discipline is one, which is obviously massive. Also, if you are taking money each day form a bookies or betting site(s) do you think they wont be noticing? They study betting patterns closely from people who are consistently winning and in no time you wont be able to get anywhere to take a bet from you.

If you want you can PM me your system you can and ill give it an appraisal . You have my guarantee that I wont be doing anything with it anyway, cos Im out of that game, even if i did come across a winning system i would do it anyway cos I know I wouldnt have the discipiline to see it through.

Exchange sites are betting against other people, not with bookie. The exchange site makes commission only and so they make mor the more people bet with eac other. The odds are always greater by 10 to 20 % plus than in the bookies. In order for it to be kept secret i can use 2 or 3 different accounts using friends details etc that will be ok with that for a small fee.

Like i said i am not selling anything, anyone selling anything imeans it doesn't work, very simple common sense. I don't need your approval.

looper333 · 21-07-2012 9:32pm

28064212 wrote: »

And what was the purpose of you posting exactly?

I think it was to find some doubters to help convince me i was mad and also perhaps to find people who could give me some good reasoning on how to maintain a cool head ie A trader of 7 years gave some good advice that is good to hear and motivates me to keep going.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 9:39pm

looper333 wrote: »

Exchange sites are betting against other people, not with bookie. The exchange site makes commission only and so they make mor the more people bet with eac other. The odds are always greater by 10 to 20 % plus than in the bookies. In order for it to be kept secret i can use 2 or 3 different accounts using friends details etc that will be ok with that for a small fee.

Like i said i am not selling anything, anyone selling anything imeans it doesn't work, very simple common sense. I don't need your approval.

Yes the odds are better on betting exchanges for sure but its still not a fair bet, with commision, which is pretty much the same as the overround in the bookies and does the same job i.e that 5% pretty much eventually sucks up 100% of the money through all the betting over and back between punters. Its just a slower way of losing your money. Yes some people claim to be making money off these sites, but then the next time you meet them they're down the dole office cursing their luck about a bad referee or something

21-07-2012 10:02pm

looper333 wrote: »

. I could clear the rent completely and get 3 weeks shopping in plus buy a new kettle, stock up on some whey protein.

For some reason I found this bit really sad and depressing

looper333 · 21-07-2012 10:03pm

WumBuster wrote: »

Yes the odds are better on betting exchanges for sure but its still not a fair bet, with commision, which is pretty much the same as the overround in the bookies and does the same job i.e that 5% pretty much eventually sucks up 100% of the money through all the betting over and back between punters. Its just a slower way of losing your money. Yes some people claim to be making money off these sites, but then the next time you meet them they're down the dole office cursing their luck about a bad referee or something

Good, as long as they exist i will always be able to profit

21-07-2012 10:08pm

looper333 wrote: »

Only if you do 3 hours overtime with fat betty on Sunday but you will have to fight her for it

Wha?

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 10:08pm

looper333 wrote: »

Good, as long as they exist i will always be able to profit

I love to see the little guy do well, but we dont live in a world that favours the little guy, do we?

The King of Moo · 21-07-2012 10:21pm

looper333 wrote: »

I think it was to find some doubters to help convince me i was mad and also perhaps to find people who could give me some good reasoning on how to maintain a cool head ie A trader of 7 years gave some good advice that is good to hear and motivates me to keep going.

You're mad.

Now t' head down t' mine. Ooh, me back's bin aching some!

zarquon · 21-07-2012 10:52pm

I have several systems but acknowledge that they are not completely foolproof and there is an element of risk in them. I also started with a bankroll of 200 a few months ago and have a decent pot built up. Saying all that, i continue to be a sheep with full employment as i am simply not naive enough to put all my trust in my systems. The difference between me and you is that you are a talker and i am a doer. You cannot equate for the courage to stake your bet when its all of your rent/bills/food money. You can see my current winning in one of my accounts below from various systems. This is just a sample however as my main pot is with betfair and you would be shocked if you saw the balance there

Grow some balls and start using your system. If you have decent results i'll gladly prop up your bankroll for a percentage but your current virtual results are nowhere near my real life results so its probably not worth my time. Get trading if you are so confident otherwise get a real job if you continue to have the fear to implement your system. For someone who pretends to be so confident on a forum who are not confident enough to go through with it so far. If your system is infallible, you will not fail. If it is fallible there is a chance you may fail and you know that hence why you are still playing on paper. If it fails i'll lend you the bus fair to walk to the dole office as you have previously whinged about having to walk to the post office to collect your dole which tells me a lot about your character and your ability to follow through in life. Good luck OP, i wish you the best but i don't believe you will have the commitment or dedication to follow through as only "sheep" like me are commited to working long hours for steady gains.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 11:16pm

zarquon wrote: »

I have several systems but acknowledge that they are not completely foolproof and there is an element of risk in them. I also started with a bankroll of 200 a few months ago and have a decent pot built up. Saying all that, i continue to be a sheep with full employment as i am simply not naive enough to put all my trust in my systems. The difference between me and you is that you are a talker and i am a doer. You cannot equate for the courage to stake your bet when its all of your rent/bills/food money. You can see my current winning in one of my accounts below from various systems. This is just a sample however as my main pot is with betfair and you would be shocked if you saw the balance there Grow some balls and start using your system. If you have decent results i'll gladly prop up your bankroll for a percentage but your current virtual results are nowhere near my real life results so its probably not worth my time. Get trading if you are so confident otherwise get a real job if you continue to have the fear to implement your system. For someone who pretends to be so confident on a forum who are not confident enough to go through with it so far. If your system is infallible, you will not fail. If it is fallible there is a chance you may fail and you know that hence why you are still playing on paper. If it fails i'll lend you the bus fair to walk to the dole office as you have previously whinged about having to walk to the post office to collect your dole which tells me a lot about your character and your ability to follow through in life. Good luck OP, i wish you the best but i don't believe you will have the commitment or dedication to follow through as only "sheep" like me are commited to working long hours for steady gains.

yeah but he's been getting notices and final warnings through the door and could be out on his ear any day soon so really he's better off paying off the rent and bills first, rather than trying and failing his system and no where to go. He can always start when he's got enough money together anyway.
if i take your screenshot as genuine, well that is pretty impressive, 200 euro up to 24K in a few months. looks like you'll be out of the rat race soon, fair play to you.
You know, i had ''the courage and balls'' to make a huge gamble for my food and rent money before, and you know what happened? It wasnt pretty. I dont think thats the way a professional gambler should be thinking. Its all about discipline and bankroll management, and taking calculated risks. Once you get that right, the rest will take care of itself.

zarquon · 21-07-2012 11:24pm

WumBuster wrote: »

Its all about discipline and bankroll management, and taking calculated risks. Once you get that right, the rest will take care of itself.

Completely agree. The OP has repeatedly stated he is terrible at bankroll management and his posting about past failures and current problems indicate a lack of discipline so ultimately i dont think he will succeed. A good system also has to be matched to a disciplined, careful and methodical personality. In the wrong hands a good system is no better than a bad system. The best systems involves good use of probability theory coupled with an intrinsic knowledge of the sport at hand which fortunately i have. I assume the OP also knows his horses well because if not he is purely speculating.

Even if i lost my bankroll i would be very comfortable in life as i've plenty extra put away. What i trade and bet with are funds i can afford to lose and that is an important point. You are a problem gambler when you play with funds you CANNOT afford to lose, and the OP would do well to remember this.

Actually the initial pot was €400 as bet365 gave me a €200 initial bonus. Soon after i put the other 200 in betfair and tried to see which i could grow faster, all for a laugh and a bit of experimentation. My exchange balance is much higher still thanks to more generous punters. Dedication and discipline works but if lost everything i still have a 9 to 5 job to support me which the OP doesn't which makes it more dangerous for him. I really think he needs to focus on getting employment first, if not for peace of mind in paying the bills then at the very least he can grow a bankroll faster and allow himself the opportunity of bigger risks without fear of being broke and homeless. Unfortunately anyone who complains about having to collect the dole from the post office will not have the commitment to follow through on his system as it will take hard work and a lot of effort to be sucessful even if it is a good system.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 11:30pm

zarquon wrote: »

Completely agree. The OP has repeatedly stated he is terrible at bankroll management and his posting about past failures and current problems indicate a lack of discipline so ultimately i dont think he will succeed. A good system also has to be matched to a disciplined, careful and methodical personality. In the wrong hands a good system is no better than a bad system. The best systems involves good use of probability theory coupled with an intrinsic knowledge of the sport at hand which fortunately i have. I assume the OP also knows his horses well because if not he is purely speculating.

i think he said its to do with maths only and that you need to know nothing about sport, which made me very skeptical as no one has yet found a mathematically sound system to beat bookmakers, Casino's or whatnot.

The few people that do make money from gambling are the ones with an expert analytical knowledge of their chosen sport, betting scenarios and have tremendous discipline. You need an extremely stoic personality to be able to handle all the ups and downs and the emotions that go with it. Not many can do it.

WumBuster · 21-07-2012 11:53pm

My advice to you if you're up that kind of money is to keep disciplined and not to rest on your laurells or lose the run of yourself. It can so easily happen in a flash that you wont know where you'll be. I know because i was up over 10k in poker before, and all of a sudden, things started going, wrong and falling apart, panic set in, i staRTED PLAYING GAMES I SHOULDNT HAVE BEEN PLAYING IN and literally in the space of a week it was all gone. it was such an eye opener and it hit me hard. I havent played poker since bar the odd few small stakes games now and again because i dont want to go through all that, wasting my time and money only for the same thing to happen all over again, which it eventually will because i know that eventually i will lose my discipline.

zarquon · 22-07-2012 12:06am

WumBuster wrote: »

My advice to you if you're up that kind of money is to keep disciplined and not to rest on your laurells or lose the run of yourself. It can so easily happen in a flash that you wont know where you'll be. I know because i was up over 10k in poker before, and all of a sudden, things started going, wrong and falling apart, panic set in, i staRTED PLAYING GAMES I SHOULDNT HAVE BEEN PLAYING IN and literally in the space of a week it was all gone. it was such an eye opener and it hit me hard. I havent played poker since bar the odd few small stakes games now and again because i dont want to go through all that, wasting my time and money only for the same thing to happen all over again, which it eventually will because i know that eventually i will lose my discipline.

I was speaking hypothetically, i use only a small fraction of my bankroll at any one time and spread the risk so there is no chance of me losing the run of my self or my bankroll. I withdraw a fixed monthly amount and the rest is "play" money. It is possible to do this and work full time as well, the OP would do well to remember that. A sheep like job will negate an element of risk in his system and would lead to proportionately larger profits due to a bigger bank role. His method is not mathematically concrete but rather holds up well statistically with peaks and troughs in his success rate. A mathematically infallible system will not fail on Sundays! That point by itself is enough to tell raise major alarm bells. He has a few bleeps on Sunday events so stays away from them due to historical experience. A formula remains the same regardless of the day of the week. It is just chance that a few bad days have happened on Sunday. If he has two or more bad mondays then he will no doubt say that he has tweaked his formula to allow for a variance in Monday stakes which simply translates as "i had a few bad results on sundays and mondays so now i won't bother to bet on those days as they are statistically bad for me". He cannot mathematically show that Sundays are dodgy, its just his experience, nothing to do with maths. He system clearly has a few holes in it that he trying to wallpaper over

WumBuster · 22-07-2012 12:37am

zarquon wrote: »

I was speaking hypothetically, i use only a small fraction of my bankroll at any one time and spread the risk so there is no chance of me losing the run of my self or my bankroll. I withdraw a fixed monthly amount and the rest is "play" money. It is possible to do this and work full time as well, the OP would do well to remember that. A sheep like job will negate an element of risk in his system and would lead to proportionately larger profits due to a bigger bank role. His method is not mathematically concrete but rather holds up well statistically with peaks and troughs in his success rate. A mathematically infallible system will not fail on Sundays! That point by itself is enough to tell raise major alarm bells. He has a few bleeps on Sunday events so stays away from them due to historical experience. A formula remains the same regardless of the day of the week. It is just chance that a few bad days have happened on Sunday. If he has two or more bad mondays then he will no doubt say that he has tweaked his formula to allow for a variance in Monday stakes which simply translates as "i had a few bad results on sundays and mondays so now i won't bother to bet on those days as they are statistically bad for me". He cannot mathematically show that Sundays are dodgy, its just his experience, nothing to do with maths. He system clearly has a few holes in it that he trying to wallpaper over

Yeah definitely the more you think about it there couldnt be any logical reason why a mathematically sound system wouldnt work on Sundays. Then you would be basing your betting patterns on Jockeys, horses or venues that take place on a Sunday, which in my eyes are not really any different to the rest of the week. Unfortunately, the op, whilst i hate being hard on him and he's obviously a young guy with a dream, is suffering from the classical gambler's fallacy.

zarquon · 22-07-2012 12:51am

WumBuster wrote: »

Unfortunately, the op, whilst i hate being hard on him and he's obviously a young guy with a dream, is suffering from the classical gambler's fallacy.

I hope he is a young guy with a dream. If he is an old guy with a dream with nothing to show for his life then he the ultimate dreamer and will possess half the ability he thinks he has. I would be interested to know his age actually and his employment record. That will tell a lot about his discipline to follow through. To be honest, there are so many flags and concerns about his statements that i'm still not sure if he is just trolling. He is purposefully ambiguous. I think you have hit the nail on the head with gamblers fallacy. He is a textbook case of someone suffering with gamblers fallacy.

budge · 22-07-2012 12:59am

f a k e

zarquon · 22-07-2012 1:17am

I reread the OP and noticed he spends 42 hours per week on average"studying" the form or 36 if he takes sunday off. I have to say that based on his results he would be better off on minimum wage on average. The results are terrible for those level of hours. I cant believe he criticises those who put similar hours into their jobs as sheep considering that those sheep are making more per hour than he is. The irony seems to be lost on him and actually displays a level of naiveity and immaturity that would lead me to advise him against gambling where such personality weakness will be severely punished. I would wager his gambling history is atrocious based on those weaknesses and on each streak he thought he was on to a sure thing only to lose the run of himself

Jesus Wept · 22-07-2012 1:22am

zarquon wrote: »

I reread the OP and noticed he spends 42 hours per week on average"studying" the form or 36 if he takes sunday off. I have to say that based on his results he would be better off on minimum wage on average. The results are terrible for those level of hours. I cant believe he criticises those who put similar hours into their jobs as sheep considering that those sheep are making more per hour than he is. The irony seems to be lost on him and actually displays a level of naiveity and immaturity that would lead me to advise him against gambling where such personality weakness will be severely punished. I would wager his gambling history is atrocious based on those weaknesses and on each streak he thought he was on to a sure thing only to lose the run of himself

What? He can scale up. His win % is what matters.
You are just jealous of how much money he is going to make. He is going to be swimming in money and clunge.

Jacking in dole for maths gambling sysyem

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