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08-06-2011, 17:33   #1
pbwinner
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€25k invested in prize bonds

Hiya,
Thought I'd update this thread on the success (or not) of €25k (yes, €25,000) I invested in PBs since February.

Purpose of this thread is to give some indication of the success rate of PBs for the ordinary punter as I assume €25k is large amount to invest in one go.

Planning to keep it in there for a year or so.

Winnings to date: €25
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08-06-2011, 17:45   #3
 
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I got a 100 pounds worth of Prize bond about 25 years ago. Still waiting for a cheque to come in the post.

Be interested to see how you get on though.
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08-06-2011, 17:48   #4
 
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Interested to see the return on this over the year..
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08-06-2011, 19:00   #5
coylemj
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Prize Bonds like the Lotto skew a lot of money towards the big prizes for publicity purposes so your 25K could win the jackpot or win nothing, the actual amount you win in a given period is meaningless because as a % of the total fund your holding is insignificant.

If the prize money was dished out as a number of prizes of equal value then there would be some meaning to your results but the imbalance in the distribution of prize money means that no mathematical conclusions can be drawn from how much you win.

Sorry but I'm treating the discussion as an exercise in probability theory and in the case of a 25k holding what you win or don't win means absolutely nothing.
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08-06-2011, 19:44   #6
pbwinner
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coylemj View Post
Prize Bonds like the Lotto skew a lot of money towards the big prizes for publicity purposes so your 25K could win the jackpot or win nothing, the actual amount you win in a given period is meaningless because as a % of the total fund your holding is insignificant.

If the prize money was dished out as a number of prizes of equal value then there would be some meaning to your results but the imbalance in the distribution of prize money means that no mathematical conclusions can be drawn from how much you win.

Sorry but I'm treating the discussion as an exercise in probability theory and in the case of a 25k holding what you win or don't win means absolutely nothing.
Yup 100% agree. The fund is unbelievably skewed towards the €75 prize. Here's the breakdown for 2010 (http://www.prizebonds.ie/downloads/AnnualReport2010.pdf page 17) - quite pathetic really...
Number of Winners €Value
12 €1,000,000
41 €20,000
265 €1,000
530 €250
302,860 €75

Last edited by pbwinner; 08-06-2011 at 19:49.
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08-06-2011, 20:20   #7
coylemj
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No, the money is skewed away from the €75 prizes.

There are 303,708 prize winners each month. Of these, 12 people (0.004% of the prize winners) pick up 12,000,000 which represents 28% of the prize money. The €75 prize winners represent 99.7% of the people winning money but collectively they only get 52% of the prize money. The money is skewed towards the big prize winners.

Last edited by coylemj; 08-06-2011 at 20:24.
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08-06-2011, 23:07   #8
Thargor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryaner View Post
I'll follow with interest.
Me too, I had 10k worth for a year, the odd €75 cheque, think it only worked out at about 2% p/a.

Last edited by Thargor; 08-06-2011 at 23:15.
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09-06-2011, 08:54   #10
pbwinner
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coylemj View Post
No, the money is skewed away from the €75 prizes.

There are 303,708 prize winners each month. Of these, 12 people (0.004% of the prize winners) pick up 12,000,000 which represents 28% of the prize money. The €75 prize winners represent 99.7% of the people winning money but collectively they only get 52% of the prize money. The money is skewed towards the big prize winners.
Ok Then let me rephrase: the "chances of winning" is unbelievably skewed towards the €75 prize.

It goes from over 300,000 bonds for €75 right down to a measly 530 bonds for the next prize.

Anyway, my next update will be after 1230 on Friday.
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09-06-2011, 19:56   #11
Marcus_Crassus
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I have 8000 euro in prize bonds -- they've been sitting there for a year -- and I have won 75 twice and 250 once.
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09-06-2011, 20:00   #12
 
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Crassus View Post
I have 8000 euro in prize bonds -- they've been sitting there for a year -- and I have won 75 twice and 250 once.
That's 5% return which is better than what you'd get in a bank
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09-06-2011, 20:12   #13
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How could you have won €25 to date, I thought the minimum prize was €75!!??

Quote:
Originally Posted by pbwinner View Post
Hiya,
Thought I'd update this thread on the success (or not) of €25k (yes, €25,000) I invested in PBs since February.

Purpose of this thread is to give some indication of the success rate of PBs for the ordinary punter as I assume €25k is large amount to invest in one go.

Planning to keep it in there for a year or so.

Winnings to date: €25
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10-06-2011, 13:14   #14
pbwinner
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Sorry yes that was a typo! It was indeed €75

Winnings from today's draw: €0
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17-06-2011, 13:02   #15
pbwinner
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Winnings from today's draw: €0
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