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04-01-2010, 19:37   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Cold Spell Discussion: Widespread Snow Expected Overnight/Tuesday

New thread folks for the developing situation.

Cold Front (Midnight)

Situation at the moment is that a cold front is currently moving south through Scotland and is visible off the North coast of Ireland.

It will track south over the coming hours and should reach the Northern NI by midnight, it will then track south reaching a line from Dublin to Galway by 3am.

The precipitation will possibly fall as rain/sleet in the northwest and west at first before the cold air digs in behind the developing cold front.

Further east the precip should stay as Snow with some decent fall across the Midlands, Leinster and East Munster.

This front will clear the south coast by 9am.

Accumulations of of between 3-10cm will occur during the passage of this front with highest accumulations in Leinster and the Midlands.

Polar Low/ Comma Feature (Tuesday 0600)

Heavy snow showers will feed into the north and northwest after the front clears with accumulations of snow here. Then a small low that will have travelled down the west coast of Scotland will approach the North coast of Ireland by 6am, its exact track southwards is still at this time unclear.

It is likely at this moment to track down the centre of the country giving fresh falls of snow with >5cm and upto 15cm's in places.

Irish Sea Showers (Tuesday 1500)

As this feature clears winds will veer Northeasterly and a convergence zone will set up along the Irish sea with a band of snow showers forming, these showers will push onto the eastern coast from Dublin southwards from around 3/6pm with big accumulations in places as the showers are likely to be very heavy at times.

Temperatures during Tuesday will range from -1c to 2c in a strong Northeasterly wind, feeling extremely cold.

Will Discuss beyond tomorrow at another time, alot going on!



City Specific Snow Accumulations estimates during Tuesday.

Dublin Airport: 8cm
Belfast: 17cm
Shannon: 8cm
Birr: 15cm
Derry: 15cm

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 04-01-2010 at 19:40.
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04-01-2010, 19:39   #2
Mental Mickey
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Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
New thread folks for the developing situation.
is this guesswork or fact?

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 04-01-2010 at 19:44.
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04-01-2010, 19:41   #3
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is this guesswork or fact?
Do you have to quote WC's whole post for a useless comment like that, cluttering the thread already?
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04-01-2010, 19:41   #4
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Is that an eye i see forming


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04-01-2010, 19:42   #5
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You don't half ramp WC but i love it Great analysis.

Same goes for you SA from the charts you posted at the end of the last thread southern england looks like it's in for a right pasting, As does wexford! lol
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04-01-2010, 19:42   #6
 
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Light sleet reported at Derry/Eglington at 1920

METAR EGAE 041920Z 23005KT 9999 -SHRASN FEW011 BKN033 01/01 Q1014=
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04-01-2010, 19:43   #7
 
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is this guesswork or fact?


Its called a forecast!!!
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04-01-2010, 19:44   #8
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ECMWF 12Z - Precip Charts - Snowfall Risk

Just reposting the following ECMWF 12Z 04 Jan Precip Charts for the following few days, from the previous thread as it got closed:

Quote:
Overview

Remember I said earlier that the T+36 Fax Chart was showing the (LP) - Low Pressure centred in the southern Irish Sea at T+36, well ECWMF 12Z is rather similar, albeit slightly further to our Southeast. In these situations, bands of precipitation (snow showers in this case), will often develop on the northwestern flank of such lows, which is exactly what ECMWF models this evening.

If Met Eireann use the 12Z Output then I would expect them to highlight this risk on the 9.30PM Broadcast

Tuesday Night



Wednesday 06.00



Wednesday 12.00



The above risk also continues into Wednesday evening. Also, western members should watch out for Thursday, there is a risk of a shallow feature running down the West Coast, with the risk of snowfall because of this. The evolution may be a bit marginal but this is also something to watch.

From the above, it would appear that the Snowfall chances for the South & Southeast are relatively good, with many areas also at risk tomorrow as the Cold Front progresses southwards across the country.

There is also a suggestion of light snow showers off the Irish Sea towards Friday onwards, as the winds back due Easterly.

This extremely cold spell looks set to last another 5 Days at least.
SA
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04-01-2010, 19:45   #9
Sleety_Rain
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Is that an eye i see forming

Yes i noticed that Redsunset
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04-01-2010, 19:45   #10
LookingFor
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You don't half ramp WC but i love it Great analysis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZBCcY0nJao

<3
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04-01-2010, 19:47   #11
Rougies
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Is that an eye i see forming
Looks like the Faroe Islands gave it a little spin alright
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04-01-2010, 19:47   #12
 
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00Z Low Level Aviation chart

Midnight tonight.

Area B
Generally light, occasionally moderate rain or sleet. Occasional snow and isolated thunderstorms to the north of the front.

Area E
Generally dry or some light sleet showers. Occasional moderate showers of snow and small hail, with isolated heavy showers of snow and thunderstorms.

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Last edited by Su Campu; 04-01-2010 at 19:53.
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04-01-2010, 19:48   #13
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Quote:
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Are you saying WC works for her Majesty as a spy??

Temp seems to be creeping slowly upward here, was 0.5c and hour or so bak, its 0.9c now!
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04-01-2010, 19:48   #14
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Same goes for you SA from the charts you posted at the end of the last thread southern england looks like it's in for a right pasting, As does wexford! lol
Thanks Baraca,

Again whilst it does indeed look favourable at the moment, we are still about T+24 or more out from the possible event so don't expect too much and then you won't be disappointed

However, you are right, if those charts verified from today's ECMWF then Wexford & Wicklow could potentially see up to 10cm, with up to 20cm possible on much higher ground over the entire period. Other areas in the East and Southeast could expect up to 7CM total accumulation from those series of charts.

However, I must stress once again that we are some way out yet & these charts should be viewed in light of a vast array of guidance. They could well change yet again unfortunately.

You're right also about the UK - some lucky people there will see 30CM in the coming days, with up to 40CM or more on higher ground there!!

SA
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04-01-2010, 19:49   #15
Sierra Oscar
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Light snow/sleet here at the moment.
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