Heavy Rain brings flood risk for East, Midlands and South on Thursday

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 6:19pm #1

Some very heavy pulses of rain, probrably some thunderstorms aswell, will develope just off the South Coast over night and move North across Leinster and East Munster and then into Ulster tomorrow morning. A pretty bad rush hour tomorrow morning in Dublin and there may be flash floods. Torrential downpours are forcast at times especially Eastern Coastal counties. The rain is expected to last for the whole day in the East and North though should start to ease late afternoon, evening. The West and Southwest having the best of the weather but just some scattered thundery showers. Good sunshine here at times.

But really it is the East and Southeast of the country that will get the brunt with at least a couple of inches likely. Rain or thunderstorms will be slow moving tomorrow.

Despite this temperature will still get into the low 20's I reckon especially in any sunshine.

Met Eireann should really have a warning for tomorrow.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U18-594.GIF?01-18

If you are in an area prone to flooding you really should prepare just in case.

If you want to follow progress on Radar

Irish Met Office

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

or

UK Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

JanuarySnowstor · 01-07-2009 6:49pm

The ppn is just coming into sight now on the radar a couple of 100 miles south of Ireland.
We should know by about 10 tonight where this is exactly heading and how heavy / severe it will be.
Initial

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 6:58pm

Yep that's it alright - it should really explode as it reaches the Southeast coast in the early hours and along the South coast. It's really early tomorrow morning and through the afternoon that the heaviest rain is expected. It will be interesting to see how it developes later.

JanuarySnowstor · 01-07-2009 8:47pm

Some intense echoes now just about an hour away from the south coast.
Cork, where I am looks like the bullseye for this let.
Will it be thundery though?? Hard to know.
Really foggy here this evening, visibility really poor given the humidity i guess. I would presume cork airport must be close on shut, outside of auto landings

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 9:22pm

It is usual for intense rainfall off the coast this time of year to disintegrate to more moderate levels on hitting land or die out so don't expect anything spectacular just yet. The conditions probrably don't favour thunder atm

CAPE and Lifted Index marginally on the wrong side of expecting a thunderstorm, though some could still be embedded

The satellite from a little bit earlier seems to back this up

Nothing there really to suggest that the cloud tops are puncturing high enough atm. The storms on the continent are clearly discernable by the bright, white, smooth cloud tops which expand in an "anvil" like fashion. Of course not all thunderstorms are visible from this distance but the big ones always are. Keep an eye on the Met Office infrared Satellite pictures through the night aswell

(Note the storms over Northwest France, they won't be effecting us but that is the type of image we want to see )

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Keep us informed JS if it does make it ashore in your neck of the woods:)

EDIT: Intensity on radar at any rate is increasing across the board from just off the South coast to the English Channel.

JanuarySnowstor · 01-07-2009 9:45pm

Well nothing here yet but fog.
Looks very intense to me and would surely lead to flooding in places where it hung about. You might be right about thunder darkman, but i wouldn't bet against it with temps up around 17C

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 9:48pm

The humidity is one thing in your favour - thunderstorms can develope quickly and the echos do look thundery on radar. Satellite just looks a bit flat though. But even if you don't get a thunderstorm you may still get very heavy rain. You don't need a thunderstorm for a fast rainfall rate.

maquiladora · 01-07-2009 10:15pm

There is some lightning in there, small cluster picked up in that band off the coast http://www.meteox.com/onweer-europa.aspx

billy the squid · 01-07-2009 10:20pm

http://www.laoisweather.com/lightning/

definately lightning in there

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 10:25pm

The front is hitting the humid air - it's still 20C here actually - maybe a few sparks from the Southeast later? *goes to check satellite* Activity looks like picking up big time once it hits the Southeast....so you never know.

The clouds are deepening and developing on on satellite but still a bit to go if we are going to see depth we need. Can't be ruled out. It is developing quickly.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Wella · 01-07-2009 10:30pm

What time do you expect this to hit the southeast Darkman?

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 10:35pm

It's expected around 2am but it could be sooner or later - it's impossible to be that accurate. It will be between 1 and 3am im fairly sure. You can tell aswell by progress on radar.

P.S Humidity is very high here - it is rediculously uncomfortable for the temperature.....:(

maquiladora · 01-07-2009 10:36pm

Yeah, can def see it developing on this ir loop.... http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

19C still here in Waterford and a few hours to go before it arrives....might see a few flashes yet :pac:

Stevek101 · 01-07-2009 10:46pm

When is this expected to hit Dublin? I don't want to get stuck tomorrow going to work!

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 10:58pm

Stevek101 wrote: »

When is this expected to hit Dublin? I don't want to get stuck tomorrow going to work!

During the commute most likely - but it might not be too bad in Dublin - it's impossible to be that accurate. All you can say is it probrably will be very wet in Dublin but it might also not be as bad as is forcast. Hope it's the latter but just be wary that it could be bad. Give yourself a bit of extra time.

Supercell · 01-07-2009 11:03pm

It was 19°C here earlier and misty, truly remarakable humidity considering my location.
SE winds, should deliver some nice rainfall totals here, bring it on!

darkman2 · 01-07-2009 11:11pm

Warning from our weather overlords.

Met.ie

Issued at 01 July 2009 - 21:00

Rain warning
Rain extending northwards across many parts of the country Wednesday night and Thursday will turn heavy or thundery in places, with a possibility of severe downpours and of localised flooding (Leinster and east Munster most at risk). It will then clear away northeastwards again during the day.
Warning valid from 02:00 to 16:00 Thursday 2/7/2009

Stevek101 · 01-07-2009 11:21pm

Thanks Darkman, I'll be bearing that in mind!

maquiladora · 01-07-2009 11:33pm

Rain still looking pretty heavy on the radar but not as thundery now it seems.

Wella · 01-07-2009 11:44pm

wonder if it'll get more active if it hits land? hope this blasted fog clears too!!

darkman2 · 02-07-2009 12:51am

Torrential rain on radar in East Cork and Waterford atm. Anyone from Cork or Waterford? The front continues to intensify.

maquiladora · 02-07-2009 12:58am

darkman2 wrote: »

Torrential rain on radar in East Cork and Waterford atm. Anyone from Cork or Waterford? The front continues to intensify.

Waterford City, still dry, not a drop falling yet. Looks like it's not too far away though. Noticed some recent lightning now on www.laoisweather.com

Actually, rain has just started now...

02-07-2009 1:47am

Lightning outside here at the moment and distant thudding thunder

admiralofthefleet · 02-07-2009 1:47am

very foggy, humid and calm here in north dublin, any idea when this will hit

maquiladora · 02-07-2009 1:58am

Thunder and lightning here in Waterford now but it's not too close. Distant rumbles.

darkman2 · 02-07-2009 2:00am

Deleted User wrote: »

Lightning outside here at the moment and distant thudding thunder

BB you serious? That's on the way to me!

Wella · 02-07-2009 2:11am

lightening and loud thunder in south kilkenny

maquiladora · 02-07-2009 2:15am

Rain is easing off here, haven't heard any more thunder.

darkman2 · 02-07-2009 2:18am

OK, I admit I got it wrong in terms of thunderstorms but seems they are more widespread then I thought would happen. But I await the cell BB was talking about patiently. Nothing yet.

amacachi · 02-07-2009 2:21am

Come on thunder and lightning before I go to bed.

Wella · 02-07-2009 2:24am

quiet now in south kilkennny. heavy rain though

Heavy Rain brings flood risk for East, Midlands and South on Thursday

Comments