Heavy Rain brings flood risk for East, Midlands and South on Thursday

darkman2

Some very heavy pulses of rain, probrably some thunderstorms aswell, will develope just off the South Coast over night and move North across Leinster and East Munster and then into Ulster tomorrow morning. A pretty bad rush hour tomorrow morning in Dublin and there may be flash floods. Torrential downpours are forcast at times especially Eastern Coastal counties. The rain is expected to last for the whole day in the East and North though should start to ease late afternoon, evening. The West and Southwest having the best of the weather but just some scattered thundery showers. Good sunshine here at times.

But really it is the East and Southeast of the country that will get the brunt with at least a couple of inches likely. Rain or thunderstorms will be slow moving tomorrow.



Despite this temperature will still get into the low 20's I reckon especially in any sunshine.

Met Eireann should really have a warning for tomorrow.


http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U18-594.GIF?01-18






If you are in an area prone to flooding you really should prepare just in case.


If you want to follow progress on Radar

Irish Met Office

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

or

UK Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

JanuarySnowstor

The ppn is just coming into sight now on the radar a couple of 100 miles south of Ireland.
We should know by about 10 tonight where this is exactly heading and how heavy / severe it will be.
Initial

darkman2

Yep that's it alright - it should really explode as it reaches the Southeast coast in the early hours and along the South coast. It's really early tomorrow morning and through the afternoon that the heaviest rain is expected. It will be interesting to see how it developes later.

JanuarySnowstor

Some intense echoes now just about an hour away from the south coast.
Cork, where I am looks like the bullseye for this let.
Will it be thundery though?? Hard to know.
Really foggy here this evening, visibility really poor given the humidity i guess. I would presume cork airport must be close on shut, outside of auto landings

darkman2

It is usual for intense rainfall off the coast this time of year to disintegrate to more moderate levels on hitting land or die out so don't expect anything spectacular just yet. The conditions probrably don't favour thunder atm

CAPE and Lifted Index marginally on the wrong side of expecting a thunderstorm, though some could still be embedded




The satellite from a little bit earlier seems to back this up



Nothing there really to suggest that the cloud tops are puncturing high enough atm. The storms on the continent are clearly discernable by the bright, white, smooth cloud tops which expand in an "anvil" like fashion. Of course not all thunderstorms are visible from this distance but the big ones always are. Keep an eye on the Met Office infrared Satellite pictures through the night aswell

(Note the storms over Northwest France, they won't be effecting us but that is the type of image we want to see )

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Keep us informed JS if it does make it ashore in your neck of the woods:)


EDIT: Intensity on radar at any rate is increasing across the board from just off the South coast to the English Channel.

JanuarySnowstor

Well nothing here yet but fog.
Looks very intense to me and would surely lead to flooding in places where it hung about. You might be right about thunder darkman, but i wouldn't bet against it with temps up around 17C

darkman2

The humidity is one thing in your favour - thunderstorms can develope quickly and the echos do look thundery on radar. Satellite just looks a bit flat though. But even if you don't get a thunderstorm you may still get very heavy rain. You don't need a thunderstorm for a fast rainfall rate.

maquiladora

There is some lightning in there, small cluster picked up in that band off the coast http://www.meteox.com/onweer-europa.aspx

billy the squid

http://www.laoisweather.com/lightning/

definately lightning in there

darkman2

The front is hitting the humid air - it's still 20C here actually - maybe a few sparks from the Southeast later? *goes to check satellite* Activity looks like picking up big time once it hits the Southeast....so you never know.


The clouds are deepening and developing on on satellite but still a bit to go if we are going to see depth we need. Can't be ruled out. It is developing quickly.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Wella

What time do you expect this to hit the southeast Darkman?

darkman2

It's expected around 2am but it could be sooner or later - it's impossible to be that accurate. It will be between 1 and 3am im fairly sure. You can tell aswell by progress on radar.


P.S Humidity is very high here - it is rediculously uncomfortable for the temperature.....:(

maquiladora

Yeah, can def see it developing on this ir loop.... http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

19C still here in Waterford and a few hours to go before it arrives....might see a few flashes yet :pac:

Stevek101

When is this expected to hit Dublin? I don't want to get stuck tomorrow going to work!

darkman2

Stevek101 wrote: »

When is this expected to hit Dublin? I don't want to get stuck tomorrow going to work!

During the commute most likely - but it might not be too bad in Dublin - it's impossible to be that accurate. All you can say is it probrably will be very wet in Dublin but it might also not be as bad as is forcast. Hope it's the latter but just be wary that it could be bad. Give yourself a bit of extra time.

Supercell

It was 19°C here earlier and misty, truly remarakable humidity considering my location.
SE winds, should deliver some nice rainfall totals here, bring it on!

darkman2

Warning from our weather overlords.

Met.ie

Issued at 01 July 2009 - 21:00


Rain warning
Rain extending northwards across many parts of the country Wednesday night and Thursday will turn heavy or thundery in places, with a possibility of severe downpours and of localised flooding (Leinster and east Munster most at risk). It will then clear away northeastwards again during the day.
Warning valid from 02:00 to 16:00 Thursday 2/7/2009

Stevek101

Thanks Darkman, I'll be bearing that in mind!

maquiladora

Rain still looking pretty heavy on the radar but not as thundery now it seems.

Wella

wonder if it'll get more active if it hits land? hope this blasted fog clears too!!

darkman2

Torrential rain on radar in East Cork and Waterford atm. Anyone from Cork or Waterford? The front continues to intensify.

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

Torrential rain on radar in East Cork and Waterford atm. Anyone from Cork or Waterford? The front continues to intensify.

Waterford City, still dry, not a drop falling yet. Looks like it's not too far away though. Noticed some recent lightning now on www.laoisweather.com

Actually, rain has just started now...

Lightning outside here at the moment and distant thudding thunder

admiralofthefleet

very foggy, humid and calm here in north dublin, any idea when this will hit

maquiladora

Thunder and lightning here in Waterford now but it's not too close. Distant rumbles.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Lightning outside here at the moment and distant thudding thunder

BB you serious? That's on the way to me!

Wella

lightening and loud thunder in south kilkenny

maquiladora

Rain is easing off here, haven't heard any more thunder.

darkman2

OK, I admit I got it wrong in terms of thunderstorms but seems they are more widespread then I thought would happen. But I await the cell BB was talking about patiently. Nothing yet.

amacachi

Come on thunder and lightning before I go to bed.

Wella

quiet now in south kilkennny. heavy rain though

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

OK, I admit I got it wrong in terms of thunderstorms but seems they are more widespread then I thought would happen. But I await the cell BB was talking about patiently. Nothing yet.

Still not hearing anything? http://www.irlweather.com/wxlightning.php

darkman2

I have a flash - no thunder as yet! But it bang on to hit my location. God I love living on the coast:D

Stevek101

How close are you to Dublin?

Sponge Bob

seems to be nearing Dublin now , say 30 mins !

Stevek101

Wow that's the most strikes I've seen since I started looking at this board.

darkman2

Stevek101 wrote: »

How close are you to Dublin?

North county - I see the flashes but no thunder yet - look east/southeast. It is sporadic but good when you see it.

darkman2

Flashes but distant thunder atm.

EDIT: Thunder getting louder - it is on the way.

Lightning now fast pace - anyone in DUB - look out the fcuking window to the East/Southeast.

Flyer1

Just back from Waterford city, couldn't sleep so went out for a midnight drive.

Witnessed 4 lightning strikes just on the outskirts of the city towards the west/north west direction. Some extremely heavy showers too, a lot of flooded back roads too.

Stevek101

I can hear it but I still can't see ****!:(

admiralofthefleet

one big flash just now, im in raheny

Stevek101

I still haven't seen a flash and I am only down the road from Raheny... Grr!

Super-Rush

All the triangles are strikes that occurred during the 60 second refresh.

Just heavy rain in Wexford/Carlow

darkman2

B IG flash just there - anyone else see that? No thunder.

Ivona Tinkle

Im in north Kildare and just seen a flash

darkman2

N ow there is thunder - the bastard is keeping to the sea....come on in here!!!


6 strikes per minute I count.

It's almost overhead now.

admiralofthefleet

holy shít i think a nuke just went off, massive flash and huge rumble of thunder.

admiralofthefleet

too quiet:(

Gonzo

hearing distant thunder here now

admiralofthefleet

just started raining, damn it i want thunder and lightening

pistolpetes11

The rain is absolutely belting down here in Newbridge , lost my sky reception for 15 mins !!