Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

All Weather Winter Warmer

Options
1…1516182021

Comments

  • Options
    #512
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Mostly Harmless, just a question (s). It being the start of the flat season this weekend. How much comfort can you take from turf form, from say the closing months for 2018, in particular in relation to how juveniles have wintered and how this differs to average handicappers who might be starting their season for the third or fourth time?


    I know that is a fairly open question, but you obviously know your onions with your AW picks, particularly when it comes to below average handicappers. Does this knack transfer to Tuesday night Roscommon evening meetings for example?


    I respect that this might need a new thread, but your thoughts would be appreciated.


  • Options
    #513
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    MH keep this going if you can. I haven’t backed them but enjoy following/reading. Impressed with results, not easy achieve


  • Options
    #514
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Id also like you to keep it up if possible, Iv back more or losers than winners because I'm a Jonah, but it's great to follow.


  • Options
    #515
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Thanks for everyones comments, appreciate the positive feedback, will let you know what I decide.

    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Mostly Harmless, just a question (s). It being the start of the flat season this weekend. How much comfort can you take from turf form, from say the closing months for 2018, in particular in relation to how juveniles have wintered and how this differs to average handicappers who might be starting their season for the third or fourth time?


    I know that is a fairly open question, but you obviously know your onions with your AW picks, particularly when it comes to below average handicappers. Does this knack transfer to Tuesday night Roscommon evening meetings for example?


    I respect that this might need a new thread, but your thoughts would be appreciated.

    Generally speaking form is form and value is value so same methods apply to turf racing, but I do tend to prefer the lower grade races where there can often be less obvious cases to be made for ones that get missed in the prices. That said, I don't really like backing 3yos in first half of the season as so much can have changed over winter and they can start improving out of nowhere. There are also more variables to contend with on turf that you don't get to such a high degree on the AW (e.g. going, course configuration).

    Overall I think the selections on this thread have been subject to some very decent variance in the main and realistically a long term ROI of 10-15% (at max) would be more realistic - which is another reason why I would be reluctant to keep this going as I believe (know) a horrible run is right round the corner.


  • Options
    #516
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    We have something to bet on again, and bet we will.

    2.40 Lingfield: Beepeeceecee (10/1 365, Hills, Ladbrokes, BV) 3pts EW

    7.00 Newcastle: Mudawwan (10/1 Generally) 1pt EW

    6.15 Dundalk: Kasbah (9/2 Generally) 1.5pts Win
    6.45 Dundalk: Invasion Day (6/1 Coral, BV) 1pt Win
    7.15 Dundalk: All The Mollies (10/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    7.45 Dundalk: Itsalonglongroad (10/1 Paddy, Boyles, Hills, BV) 2pts EW
    8.45 Dundalk: Miss Louise (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #517
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Place for Itsalonlongroad and All The Mollies a NR yesterday. Not on laptop at moment so will update totals at later date.

    Today:
    3.10 Lingfield: Nonios (12/1 BV, Hills) 1.5pts EW
    3.45 Lingfield: Doctor Sardonicus (18/1 Paddy) 1pt EW
    8.30 Kempton: Dutch Uncle (18/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW


  • Options
    #518
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Got round to updating the figures.

    Totals
    Staked 678.00
    Returned 848.07
    P/L 170.07
    ROI 25.08%

    1pt EW on Crownthorpe in Lincoln not included in above and will update it with the bet included after todays action, will stick up a couple other bets at Naas today in a moment.


  • Options
    #519
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    2.35 Naas: Jewel Maker (7/1 365, BV) 2.5pts Win
    3.05 Naas: Leagan Gaeilge (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
    3.40 Naas: Hand On Heart (50/1 365) 1pt EW


  • Options
    #520
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Hand On Heart denied by a head, others no good.

    Totals
    Staked 687.50
    Returned 859.07
    P/L 171.57
    ROI 24.96%


  • Options
    #521
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Two today:
    3.30 Lingfield: Music Man (10/1 365) 1pt EW
    7.45 Wolverhampton: Final Attack (10/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #522
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Hard luck on Hand on Heart yest.. agonizingly close to a huge one.


  • Options
    #523
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Be keeping an eye out for Final Attack in future races when they put a jockey on it. Woeful ride and made up serious amount of ground


  • Options
    #524
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,968 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    I think she just got caught a bit off guard with the pace of the race she tried to drop the horse in and they went off like the clappers and before she knew it she was too far back.


  • Options
    #525
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Final Attack just a bit of a monkey I think, usually runs that sort of race - 4 times I have bet him in this thread and has been placed on 3 of those occasions. Not sure if Malune was riding to instructions or just ended up out back inadvertently. Will win one eventually but needs it to drop right and will always look more of a place than win prospect.

    Final Attack got 4th for the place payout with Paddy but 10c R4 after one was taken out at start.

    Level for the day

    Totals
    Staked 694.50
    Returned 866.07
    P/L 171.57
    ROI 24.70%


  • Options
    #526
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Should be a few bets at Wolverhampton today, am out this morning but will post once I am back.


  • Options
    #527
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    5.00 Wolverhampton: Folies Bergeres (25/1 Paddy, Boyles) 1pt EW
    5.30 Wolverhampton: Van Gerwen (33/1 365, Hills, Paddy, Boyles) 1.5pts Win / Patrick (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win
    7.00 Wolverhampton: Prince Of Harts (11/1 365, Paddy, Boyles) 1pt Win


  • Options
    #528
    STB.
    Registered Users Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    5.00 Wolverhampton: Folies Bergeres (25/1 Paddy, Boyles) 1pt EW
    5.30 Wolverhampton: Van Gerwen (33/1 365, Hills, Paddy, Boyles) 1.5pts Win / Patrick (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win
    7.00 Wolverhampton: Prince Of Harts (11/1 365, Paddy, Boyles) 1pt Win
    Your first one was 4th at 66/1.

    And your last one, won at 16/1. Total outsider of 6 and done it easily from off the pace.... Your eye is in again. Like I said before, stick to the 16/1 shots :)


  • Options
    #529
    The Rooster
    Registered Users Posts: 4,442 ✭✭✭The Rooster


    STB. wrote: »
    Your first one was 4th at 66/1.

    And your last one, won at 16/1. Total outsider of 6 and done it easily from off the pace.... Your eye is in again. Like I said before, stick to the 16/1 shots :)
    I was just finished effin and ranting at horse and jockey, when I noticed that actually they might just have a chance here! Beauty!


  • Options
    #530
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Folies Bergeres looked just about most likely winner a couple of furlongs out but could only manage 4th having gone off at 66s. Van Gerwen and Patrick never really threatened at business end. But Prince Of Harts got job done at a massive 16/1 and pushes the profit back upwards a notch.

    +11.50pts on the day

    Totals
    Staked 700.00
    Returned 883.07
    P/L 183.07
    ROI 26.15%


  • Options
    #531
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Few bets today, will post once shops have opened and have got on myself.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #532
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    2.00 Lingfield: Spirit Kingdom (20/1 365, Hills, Coral) 1pt EW
    3.25 Southwell: Gabrial The Tiger (13/2 Generally) 2.5pts EW
    3.35 Lingfield: Schindlers Ark (9/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
    3.55 Southwell: Majestic Moon (20/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
    4.30 Southwell: Blistering Dancer (25/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW / Dream Ally (33/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5)


  • Options
    #533
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Might have a couple more for Kempton this evening in a bit


  • Options
    #534
    Tomw86
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭Tomw86


    I'm following today. Can't believe I missed them yesterday!


  • Options
    #535
    Cherry_Cola
    Registered Users Posts: 2,922 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    I had another tip from a reliable source on Majestic Moon so went heavy on it.


  • Options
    #536
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    6.30 Kempton: Herringswell (20/1 Generally) 1pt EW
    7.00 Kempton: Sir Jamie (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
    7.30 Kempton: Silverturnstogold (25/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW


  • Options
    #537
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,968 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Ah so close..!


  • Options
    #538
    Whiplash85
    Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Whiplash85


    Another crossbar hit. Incredibly unlucky.


  • Options
    #539
    Tomw86
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭Tomw86


    Thought we had it once it hit the front


  • Options
    #540
    Cherry_Cola
    Registered Users Posts: 2,922 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    Think I lost my voice after that one! Great picking!


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #541
    STB.
    Registered Users Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    If Theodore Ladd had been on your pick MH that would have scooted in. Phil Dennis is a tad weak in a finish! Crossbar 33/1 when I backed it.... Keep emm coming


Advertisement