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10-12-2020, 21:48   #61
lostweekend3
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Nothing worse then a mild Christmas
And we’ve got our fair share of them over the last few years. Really hoping the models shift to a colder outlook from tomorrow. We can be confident that there won’t be any snow before Christmas Day anyway.
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10-12-2020, 21:49   #62
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the GFS was starting to look fairly interesting a few days ago for the Christmas period, but over the past 2 to 3 days each run has been downgrading the colder runs ever so slightly with each run and now there isn't much genuine cold left on the table between now and the 26th. The other day we had about 6 runs into the -8 to -10C category and another into -12C. Right now the runs don't go any colder than -5C with the exception of one which goes to -10C.

However we are still 2 weeks in the run up to Christmas and the charts can change alot between now and then so the window is still open for some seasonal Christmas cold. Despite the blocking on offer it doesn't seem to be aligning properly for us to tap into any decent cold, hopefully our luck will change soon and start seeing juicy charts.
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11-12-2020, 00:45   #63
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even if there isn't any snow up to Christmas, there's always the possibility that high pressure dead centre in the middle of the Arctic is making the models do all sorts of mild/cold scenario's. Guess we'll see what happens in the next week week 1/2's time
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11-12-2020, 07:06   #64
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Looks like there is potential for alot of stormy weather to arrive.
At least that might be a bit more interesting than this drab few days.
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11-12-2020, 08:22   #65
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Not really mild (yet) on the charts. Not really cold either. Its kind of normal December weather just 6 to 9c a lot of days. Latest GFS has a cool northwesterly over us midday on Christmas Day and temperatures of 5 to 7c with showers.
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11-12-2020, 09:38   #66
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Overall looking cool from Christmas to NY eve. Potential for upland white gold and very little in the way of confidence at lower levels. Nothing more than seasonal weather with high single figures looking likely for most of the country. Still, a two week run in could produce a surprise but anyone wishing for snow at low elevations will more than likely be disappointed.
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11-12-2020, 11:20   #67
Hooter23
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The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.
I dont know about that but I remember back then we actually got the extreme weather that was forecast...unlike nowadays were its all hype 99% of the time for nothing...all part of the climate change scam sure

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11-12-2020, 12:16   #68
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Now GFS looks even milder. Ah shucks. Even the dreaded SWesterlies trying to ruin Christmas. 11c on latest chart for the big day. Maybe even higher. Was fearful that one hour of snow last week was all we would get in December. Looks more and more likely.
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11-12-2020, 13:01   #69
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Yes, unfortunately la Nina is starting to take hold. I hope we won't be relying on an pv split for a significant cold spell. We probably will get colder interludes in the weeks ahead, with snow at times, but that will mainly be a north west affair
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11-12-2020, 19:42   #70
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ECM still hanging on to the pattern of a cool start to the days before Christmas as does the GFS, GFS goes on to become very unsettled and mild at times over Christmas but goes on to show the Jet taking a plunge South but that is the far reaches of FI.

ECM towards +240 still showing the Jet taking a more Southerly route , perhaps theoretically taking the modeled Low crossing the Atlantic in the final frames more on a Sothern route below Ireland letting the colder air sink down from the NW /N ???
















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11-12-2020, 23:26   #71
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Yes pub run for GFS best of the day as in there is more cold before Christmas than before.

It's still all in the balance as any cool air from the Northwest that is undercut by a secondary low has the potential to bring a short cold snap or two which is better than nothing.

Christmas Day is very mild still though.
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11-12-2020, 23:33   #72
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The GFS 18Z looks very disturbed the week leading up to Christmas and quiet cold from the NW / N leading to wintry falls.

A long way out and nothing certain, just what the charts show this evening, in general much cooler on the lead up.

Plenty of twists and turns yet I reckon.
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12-12-2020, 12:03   #73
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Yes, some parts of the country could see the white stuff on the 24th into the 25th if the latest GFS could be banked. It would be a brief cold spell, but i don't think many people will be bothered by that.
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12-12-2020, 12:32   #74
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They would if it affected travel on an already very limited window to do so.

Mild and dry ftw this Christmas.
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12-12-2020, 12:37   #75
nacho libre
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They would if it affected travel on an already very limited window to do so.

Mild and dry ftw this Christmas.
We are not talking about a beasterly here, a northern toppler if we are lucky.
So I don't think it will be disruptive snow in any case. Cold and snowy for the win this Christmas
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