Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
09-12-2020, 20:36   #46
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,351
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
Whats icon predicting? It used to be good at spotting trends before the other models, ECM better on the final details tho.
The Icon extends out to December 17th and shows a mostly Atlantic scene with temperatures around average to mild.

Gonzo is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
09-12-2020, 23:18   #47
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,351
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
GFS switches on the blowtorch for Christmas Day evening,





10C/11C at 5pm after dark.

Unlikely this will verify as we're so far out but every GFS run is completely different at this stage.
Gonzo is offline  
(3) thanks from:
09-12-2020, 23:58   #48
Artane2002
Registered User
 
Artane2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,703
that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.
Artane2002 is offline  
Thanks from:
10-12-2020, 02:02   #49
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,351
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artane2002 View Post
that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.
yep it's very much an outlier as well, most of the other runs are cooler and some are still very cold.

Gonzo is offline  
(4) thanks from:
10-12-2020, 11:33   #50
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,787
By the looks of the GFS ensemble above it looks at the moment as if its all if in the air still.

Predictions for Christmas day anything from 0 to 15c. Does that mean it will be 7.5c
pauldry is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
10-12-2020, 13:02   #51
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,351
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
This mornings GFS run similar to the pub run yesterday except it's even warmer, pumping very mild air up from the Canarys over Ireland with daytime temperatures around 11 or 12C.
Gonzo is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-12-2020, 13:35   #52
rooney30
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 323
Was checking this thread daily for the last week or so in hope of some cold. After today , maybe time to check back in around New Years
rooney30 is offline  
Thanks from:
10-12-2020, 14:38   #53
Donegal Storm
Registered User
 
Donegal Storm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,831
Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...
Donegal Storm is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-12-2020, 15:05   #54
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,351
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donegal Storm View Post
Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...
there could be alot of truth in that, because 10 to 15 years ago we would regularly see extreme eye candy in the charts several times per winter but most of the time they ended up in breaking hearts as the Atlantic just stayed in place most of the time. Maybe it's a good thing we don't see the eye candy quite on the scale of the early 2000's.
Gonzo is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
10-12-2020, 18:10   #55
Hooter23
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,266
Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....
Hooter23 is offline  
10-12-2020, 19:22   #56
Nabber
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,603
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooter23 View Post
Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....
The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.
Nabber is offline  
10-12-2020, 20:06   #57
Donegal Storm
Registered User
 
Donegal Storm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,831
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nabber View Post
The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.
Thats what I'm thinking, I'm assuming there's some sort of machine learning algorithms used as well that encourage runs to deviate back towards the mean if they start "going off on one". Whatever it is it's definitely noticeable in threads like this just how few interesting runs there are compared to past years
Donegal Storm is offline  
10-12-2020, 20:53   #58
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 9,168
Cant see much of note coming up except what could be some windy weather around next Tues/ Weds just inside the +120 hrs.

Cold projections seems to have lessened for next week

Rain accumulation totals were looking higher, dipped a bit and seem to be making a comeback again out to +240hrs but mostly along Atlantic coastal counties.









Meteorite58 is online now  
10-12-2020, 21:06   #59
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 9,168
Who knows that LP system might eventually drift slowly into the Nordic countries and drag down some cold NW'lys and then N'lys, maybe the Atlantic will slow down, the Jet looks to go more South, last chart looks a bit quiet to our West ??

I really don't know, only looking for a bit of seasonal cold potential.










Meteorite58 is online now  
(3) thanks from:
10-12-2020, 21:42   #60
Cork2021
Registered User
 
Cork2021's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 670
Nothing worse then a mild Christmas
Cork2021 is online now  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet