[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by SeaBreezes

Whats icon predicting? It used to be good at spotting trends before the other models, ECM better on the final details tho.

The Icon extends out to December 17th and shows a mostly Atlantic scene with temperatures around average to mild.

[Gonzo]

GFS switches on the blowtorch for Christmas Day evening,





10C/11C at 5pm after dark.

Unlikely this will verify as we're so far out but every GFS run is completely different at this stage.

[Artane2002]

that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Artane2002

that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.

yep it's very much an outlier as well, most of the other runs are cooler and some are still very cold.

[pauldry]

By the looks of the GFS ensemble above it looks at the moment as if its all if in the air still.

Predictions for Christmas day anything from 0 to 15c. Does that mean it will be 7.5c

[Gonzo]

This mornings GFS run similar to the pub run yesterday except it's even warmer, pumping very mild air up from the Canarys over Ireland with daytime temperatures around 11 or 12C.

[rooney30]

Was checking this thread daily for the last week or so in hope of some cold. After today , maybe time to check back in around New Years

[Donegal Storm]

Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Donegal Storm

Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...

there could be alot of truth in that, because 10 to 15 years ago we would regularly see extreme eye candy in the charts several times per winter but most of the time they ended up in breaking hearts as the Atlantic just stayed in place most of the time. Maybe it's a good thing we don't see the eye candy quite on the scale of the early 2000's.

[Hooter23]

Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....

[Nabber]

Originally Posted by Hooter23

Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....

The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

[Donegal Storm]

Originally Posted by Nabber

The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

Thats what I'm thinking, I'm assuming there's some sort of machine learning algorithms used as well that encourage runs to deviate back towards the mean if they start "going off on one". Whatever it is it's definitely noticeable in threads like this just how few interesting runs there are compared to past years

[Meteorite58]

Cant see much of note coming up except what could be some windy weather around next Tues/ Weds just inside the +120 hrs.

Cold projections seems to have lessened for next week

Rain accumulation totals were looking higher, dipped a bit and seem to be making a comeback again out to +240hrs but mostly along Atlantic coastal counties.

[Meteorite58]

Who knows that LP system might eventually drift slowly into the Nordic countries and drag down some cold NW'lys and then N'lys, maybe the Atlantic will slow down, the Jet looks to go more South, last chart looks a bit quiet to our West ??

I really don't know, only looking for a bit of seasonal cold potential.

[Cork2021]

Nothing worse then a mild Christmas