Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

A Convective outlook tomorrow with the passage of a trough over Ireland with sunny spells and should have big showers of rain and hail move across the country and perhaps some sporadic thunderstorms possible. Fresh wind from the SW /W. Some very cold uppers passing over the country. Would have thought a better chance for thunder on the Eastern half as diurnal heating takes effect in the afternoon, cape and lapse rates not that impressive but still a chance of a few sparks perhaps. Best DLS in the S.

AROME model showing convective gusts associated with the showers I believe. Not much to go on compared to the recent storms in the UK but good practice whilst awaiting the big one here in Ireland

Looks like around the Munster region has the best chance of some thunder today although looks limited going by the charts.. Already seeing Cumulus bubbling up to congestus size inland from me here in Kerry this morning. Not much wind so slow moving cloud, where it rains could be quite heavy with hail possible. Interesting that temperatures set to drop very low in the afternoon in Munster, would presume from very cold heavy rain /hail and by then from lack of sunlight also ?

Colser wrote: »

I think I've just heard thunder near Cork City.

Yea a couple of sferics showing up near Ballincollig, very heavy rain showing up too.

Netweather

Potential for Thunderstorms the weekend with a large area of very cold temperatures aloft and an upper trough which looks to me like it is in a negative tilt by Sunday. Charts showing potential from Fri. with big showers of rain and hail being forecast. Sunday could be quite active, will know more closer to the time. At the moment showing the most CAPE potential from the ECM on Sunday seen this year I believe.

Big convection getting going here in Kerry in good long spells of sunshine. A few might become electrified as they move inland.

Perhaps a chance of sferics along the South coast tonight and early morning and some overland tomorrow. Sunday doesnt have the same potential as earlier charts.

Im wondering if showers reach the South coast overnight could they produce sparks. Tomorrow looking like the best chance of some storms over the weekend with the Eastern half of the country most in the firing line, could be some big showers there tomorrow. Low chance of some activity in the W later tomorrow night perhaps ?

Very low amount of sferics recorded Fri /Sat, I thought there would have been more, not enough moisture in the atmosphere and lacking shear I guess, very low Relative humidity here in Kerry the last two days getting down to 61%.