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Storm Jorge : February 29th

13567…21

Comments

  • #102
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Not a mention of Jorge in the Spanish Met's latest video forecast this morning. A brief mention of a cold front moving through tomorrow with some light rain and winds to 90 km/h on coasts and 100 on peaks. A bad call on their part naming it.


  • #103
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Latest GFS. No real changes in intensity or track compared to earlier run.

    30-515UK_qkk4.GIF
    30-289UK_tbu4.GIF


  • #104
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Should Saturday be renamed Stormday?

    This is the 4th in a row but possibly the worst

    Could go

    Mace 140kph
    Sherkin 137kph
    Roches 133kph
    Belmullet 129kph
    Valentia 127kph
    Newport 125kph
    Shannon 125kph
    Finner 120kph
    Malin 120kph

    and of course

    Casement (the surprise) 108kph


  • #105
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    This was RossesPt last week. More damage after this.


  • #106
    endainoz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Marine warning has been updated to a red alright. Watch the media manipulate it to make it look worse.


  • #107
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The German naming system has tomorrow's storm most likely called Diana. The low just ahead of it is Charlotte. Confused?

    http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief2020/

    Prognose_20200227.gif


  • #108
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    eastmayo wrote: »
    Just had met eireann on our local radio...They will be staying with orange warnings but going red for marine on the west coast. Warnings to be updated this morning.

    Just came in and it is wild out there already. Gusty winds . Not surprised when I saw the red marine warnings.

    Tomorrow is a nasty one.


  • #109
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Am I reading this right that the rainfall is less than expected but the wind is going to be intense?


  • #110
    endainoz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭endainoz


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Am I reading this right that the rainfall is less than expected but the wind is going to be intense?

    Well that depends really on what part of the country your in. The yellow rainfall warning is for Munster Connaught and Donegal. The orange wind warning is only for Western coastal counties and then there is a countrywide yellow wind warning.


  • #111
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Evelyn on rte radio just said they will be upping the warning level for the Midlands to Orange for a few hours tomorrow.


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  • #112
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,530 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Evelyn on Radio One at the moment discussing this, saying warnings are likely to be upgraded shortly for a few hours tomorrow.


  • #113
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    The German naming system has tomorrow's storm most likely called Diana. The low just ahead of it is Charlotte. Confused?

    http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief2020/

    Yep. 3 names on the one chart? How many do they go through in a season I wonder?

    EDIT: see it in the link. Completely OTT IMO.


  • #114
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    6z HIRLAM showing showing mean wind speeds of 100 kmh on the Galway & Clare coasts.

    hirlamuk-3-32-0_xpm5.png


  • #115
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yep. 3 names on the one chart? How many do they go through in a season I wonder?

    EDIT: see it in the link. Completely OTT IMO.

    It's a completely different system, however. They don't name only storms, they name ALL lows and highs. It's just a novelty scheme introduced to raise funds for the University. Nothing to do with severe weather.


  • #116
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    I'll be keeping an eye on forecast. Our mother lives on the coast in SW Donegal. Very exposed spot. We usually bring her up to my place or one of the sisters places during severe winds. But she hates the fuss and always downplays such storms and accuses me of hype and daftness.

    This room is unusually quiet so I'm thinking that folks in here aren't convinced that this storm is going to be so bad. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the day and see what Met Eireann are saying this afternoon.


  • #117
    piplip87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Warnings may be updated at 3pm. Evelyn said the Midlands and possibly parts of the east.


  • #118
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    piplip87 wrote: »
    Warnings may be updated at 3pm. Evelyn said the Midlands and possibly parts of the east.

    Not the south?


  • #119
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,325 ✭✭✭highdef


    leahyl wrote: »
    Not the south?

    Very unlikely based on current track


  • #120
    piplip87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭piplip87


    No she didn't mention the south she said parts of the midlands and the East.


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  • #121
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Little snowy old me wrote: »

    This room is unusually quiet so I'm thinking that folks in here aren't convinced that this storm is going to be so bad.

    Majority possibly still at work and cant skive off on boards all day( including myself as one of said skivers)


  • #122
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    I'll be keeping an eye on forecast. Our mother lives on the coast in SW Donegal. Very exposed spot. We usually bring her up to my place or one of the sisters places during severe winds. But she hates the fuss and always downplays such storms and accuses me of hype and daftness.

    This room is unusually quiet so I'm thinking that folks in here aren't convinced that this storm is going to be so bad. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the day and see what Met Eireann are saying this afternoon.

    The coronavirus thread is very very active so maybe that is where folk are at?


  • #123
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Majority possibly still at work and cant skive off on boards all day( including myself as one of said skivers)

    That, or on the corona virus thread (737 people in there at the moment)! :p

    That should keep the pressure off the weather forum/keep some of the riff raff out!


  • #124
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,966 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I reckon people are getting used to these storms on a weekly basis and weather warning+wind fatigue is definitely setting in.

    If anything the rain and flooding as well as the corona virus is much more of a concern this winter, compared to the wind. Having said that this weekend is definitely up there with all the recent storms for wind strength.

    Once this storm system passes we may be turning a corner on this prolonged unsettled spell. March is trending dryer and milder with each run, particularly from the middle of week 2 onwards.


  • #125
    zell12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,008 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    Forecaster Evelyn Cusack says western coastal areas will also be facing status red conditions.
    It’s understood Met Eireann will be issuing a red marine warning for Galway and the west coast later Friday.
    https://galwaybayfm.ie/galway-bay-fm...arly-tomorrow/


  • #126
    mirrorwall14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I reckon people are getting used to these storms on a weekly basis and weather warning+wind fatigue is definitely setting in.

    If anything the rain and flooding as well as the corona virus is much more of a concern this winter, compared to the wind. Having said that this weekend is definitely up there with all the recent storms for wind strength.

    Once this storm system passes we may be turning a corner on this prolonged unsettled spell. March is trending dryer and milder with each run, particularly from the middle of week 2 onwards.

    Ground is still very saturated and flooded in north kildare anyways. Could do without any more precipitation of any kind tbh


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  • #127
    corsav6
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    Is there a chance this could be upgraded to red for coastal counties?
    Living fairly exposed in West Mayo especially to SW winds.


  • #128
    aisling86
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭aisling86


    corsav6 wrote: »
    Is there a chance this could be upgraded to red for coastal counties?
    Living fairly exposed in West Mayo especially to SW winds.

    Would you not adhere to the marine warming living on the coast?


  • #129
    endainoz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭endainoz


    zell12 wrote: »
    Forecaster Evelyn Cusack says western coastal areas will also be facing status red conditions.
    It’s understood Met Eireann will be issuing a red marine warning for Galway and the west coast later Friday.
    https://galwaybayfm.ie/galway-bay-fm...arly-tomorrow/

    It's already on a red marine warning, was issued at 12pm today.


  • #130
    endainoz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭endainoz


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Would you not adhere to the marine warming living on the coast?

    No, unless you are on a boat or an island.


  • #131
    dinorebel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,283 ✭✭✭dinorebel


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    That, or on the corona virus thread (737 people in there at the moment)! :p

    That should keep the pressure off the weather forum/keep some of the riff raff out!

    Bit unfair on Kermit :cool:


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  • #132
    Mr Velo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,810 ✭✭✭Mr Velo


    corsav6 wrote: »
    Is there a chance this could be upgraded to red for coastal counties?
    Living fairly exposed in West Mayo especially to SW winds.

    MT Cranium said it's possible - Mayo, Galway, Clare to go Red for a time tomorrow.


  • #133
    Mr Velo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,810 ✭✭✭Mr Velo


    Mr Velo wrote: »
    MT Cranium said it's possible - Mayo, Galway, Clare to go Red for a time tomorrow.

    Forgot Kerry:

    "I would say if the current model trend continues and there is no last-minute downgrade, a red alert is quite likely for at least Mayo, Galway, Clare and Kerry."


  • #134
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    dinorebel wrote: »
    Bit unfair on Kermit :cool:

    tenor.gif?itemid=4677199

    :(


  • #135
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Thomond Park tomorrow, don't think I'll travel even if it's on and I have a ticket.


  • #136
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Probability forecast for wind gusts of 64 knots or more for 3pm tomorra. (based on latest ECM output)

    zUJvDDo.png

    Below 50% in most places away from exposed coasts.

    New Moon



  • #137
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    mirrorwall14 wrote: »
    Ground is still very saturated and flooded in north kildare anyways. Could do without any more precipitation of any kind tbh

    Saw some great waterfalls today in the gap of Dungloe.


  • #138
    up for anything
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Majority possibly still at work and cant skive off on boards all day( including myself as one of said skivers)

    Work never stopped anyone posting on the weather forum if there was some excitement in store. :D


  • #139
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Majority possibly still at work and cant skive off on boards all day( including myself as one of said skivers)

    Or maybe the wolf has been cried a bit too often.

    New Moon



  • #140
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Would you not adhere to the marine warming living on the coast?

    Yes; it says coastal waters so marine warning applies to extreme coasts. Already at red. :eek:


  • #141
    diceyd
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭diceyd


    Roughly how long will the storm last?


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  • #142
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Chloe Rapping Penknife wrote: »
    Saw some great waterfalls today in the gap of Dungloe.

    OK: photos please! I miss Kerry!


  • #143
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Latest FMI-HIRLAM run is a bit of a change it seems. After clipping off the Kerry coast, the main belt of winds is off the south coast. Centre further south too.

    fmiuk-11-27-0_cvn6.png
    fmiuk-11-32-0_ozv8.png


  • #144
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Or maybe the wolf has been cried a bit too often.

    Depends where you live; never once a wrong warning here.


  • #145
    Stevieluvsye
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    diceyd wrote: »
    Roughly how long will the storm last?

    It looks like majority of the day(Very windy), probably peaking early afternoon from my reading of it


  • #146
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Why is there a difference between the Dutch & Finnish HIRLAM output? FMI is sending the centre over Mayo. Dutch keeps it further north.


  • #147
    Sundew
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭Sundew


    Just wondering what is the rough time for winds to peak tomorrow in Galway ( possible red alert) .


  • #148
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,982 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    At this stage now it would be wise for Met Eireann to view the 12s and then update the warnings this evening.


  • #149
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Met Eireann update is at 3pm I think.


  • #150
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Sundew wrote: »
    Just wondering what is the rough time for winds to peak tomorrow in Galway ( possible red alert) .

    Windy throughout the day tomorrow but peaking roughly during the mid to late afternoon period.

    Meteogram for Galway (city) tomorrow:

    UAq6OWM.png

    New Moon



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  • #151
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just scanning through the latest Hi Res models on the phone and it looks like North Kerry, Clare and possibly W Galway very much fitting Red warning criteria for a time Sat. To me County Clare is the hot spot atm, 130 to 140 km/h winds pushing inland there for a time. This is still evolving more changes yet to come I reckon.
    More counties will probably come into Orange warning for a time.


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