Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

mickger844posts wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Why are you defensive about a critical comment?
All I'm pointing out is that if the atlantic is having difficulty sending it's systems beyond birmingham,then it's a possibility it will retreat still.
We don't know.Theres no need yet to be discounting this completely.

I would agree that the normal is more likely than the abnormal usually but even the ecm ensembles cannot agree on that for the moment.
I've no idea yet what the ensemble suite is guiding this morning .

I don't need to be told by you what i should and shouldn't know thanks very much. Your condescending attitude to the posts wording was uncalled for in my opinion. That's all i will say on the matter as we can do without anymore conflict in here.

:rolleyes:

Anyhow back to the models ... things certainly haven't got worse from a model point of view. I wouldn't say better either mind.
We are depending on a Siberian high and not a scandy high to bring us an easterly -that's asking it to do a job it usually doesn't do.
I suppose the reason we're asking it to do that is because it's so much bigger than normal and already sufficient to block the Atlantic.
If we only maintain the status quo,the hope is a slow drip feed of icy air from the near continent.
That or an undercutting low which would boost an easterly.
Or a slight move west or slight reorientation of the high,very slight which would bring a more direct east feed towards us.
None of that might happen but the thing is we don't know.
The biggest tool we have at the moment is human met experienced opinion on sub 120 uk met faxes and tweets from matt Hugo,Ian Ferguson and the likes and even comments sometimes on BBC news 24 forecasts.