Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

derekon

MAJOR downgrade across all three models (ECM, GFS and GEFS) with Ireland due to have mild weather from next Tuesday onwards and any major cold retreating to south and eastern Europe.

Will the moderators now close this thread as really, people are only kidding themselves!! No major cold on the way and its about time we faced the reality of this!!!

D

pistolpetes11

Su will prob know the answer to this one !

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
@BigJoeBastardi i've got plenty to time to work out and watch TV at the gym since I don't really look at 06z and 18z GFS for guidance.


I read on Netweather tonight that these two runs dont use Sounding ballons as part of the data on the run ?

EDIT :
(Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias.)

Would that have a massive difference on the outcome ?

Why would they not use them , thus keeping all the runs like for like ?

Sponge Bob

Problem is Derek that if the thread is closed around 5 new 'epic megacold imminently coming kinda threads will take its place within 2-3 hours and well you know it.

Still some blizzard naming rights to be had in February the if you really feel lucky...see my sig below.

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

MAJOR downgrade across all three models (ECM, GFS and GEFS) with Ireland due to have mild weather from next Tuesday onwards and any major cold retreating to south and eastern Europe.

Will the moderators now close this thread as really, people are only kidding themselves!! No major cold on the way and its about time we faced the reality of this!!!

D

Its not looking too great but I think this has still some time to play out , especially with all the chopping and changing the models have being doing .

Sure Il even slip in an aul GFS ens perb to cheer you up

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its not looking too great but I think this has still some time to play out , especially with all the chopping and changing the models have being doing .

Sure Il even slip in an aul GFS ens perb to cheer you up

Thanks Pistolpetes, but I might as well be looking up a cow's arse

These severe cold FI models have been doing the rounds the past number of weeks and still no decent cold, so excuse me if I am sceptical but its always "next week" and next week never arrives.

D

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

Thanks Pistolpetes, but I might as well be looking up a cow's arse

These severe cold FI models have been doing the rounds the past number of weeks and still no decent cold, so excuse me if I am sceptical but its always "next week" and next week never arrives.

D

Tis the thrill of the chase , best thing is to not get too hung up on it.

I can guarente you that when /if this cold spell fails to come up trumps Il be out chasing it again at first sight on the charts.

Its nearly sadistic that we do it to ourselves every year,

The pursuit of cold snowy weather in the Winter and Warm Sunny weather in the Spring/summer

delw

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Tis the thrill of the chase , best thing is to not get too hung up on it.

I can guarente you that when /if this cold spell fails to come up trumps Il be out chasing it again at first sight on the charts.

Its nearly sadistic that we do it to ourselves every year,

The pursuit of cold snowy weather in the Winter and Warm Sunny weather in the Spring/summer

too right pistolpetes11 but if that stubborn AH isn't moving now the fecker better stay around for the spring/summer

Irish Steve

I know it's the UK papers, and that a miss is as good as a mile, but for what it's worth, Sky News are carrying reports based on front page headlines on the Express that "the Siberian blast could last a month". The Express is ramping the cold big time for the UK, so they're either desperate for sales, or listening to some very dodgy seaweed on the wall of their offices.

That said, the UKMO do seem to be saying that they are not at all confident in their models at the moment, and the next few days could go either way without much warning, and if it does, there's no telling where it will stop

A battle royal between cold and warm air that goes to and fro for a while has the potential to dump a lot of snow in a very short period of time, it happened to us in the south west of the UL in (I think) 82, and while it thawed pretty rapidly after the main event, for a number of days, nothing moved down our street, even land rovers found 6 Ft drifts difficult to cope with:D

while I'm not optimistic at the moment, it's far from cut and dried that there's no cold coming.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

Matthew Hugo
Without question after looking at the ECM ENS the 12Z ECM Det is a mild outlier!...cold scenario preferred...just! 8:42 pm - 26 Jan 12 via Twitter

Very much a cold outlier for the far eastern states of Europe though.

The latest UK Met Office fax forecast chart for 120hrs (5 days) seems to side more with what the ECMWF 12z ensemble mean is showing for the time period rather than what the UKMO 12z is showing (although there are only small, subtle differences between the two really)

Ireland pretty much in the no-mans land category and as pretty much expected.

The ECMWF ENs are more or less keeping us in this state beyond this right up to 10 days with Atlantic ridge to col type conditions prevailing over Ireland:



I suppose one positive is that the ens also keep the Scandinavian block going for a while yet which is better to see than not. I just hope it will find it in its heart to share some of its precious influence over us.

Strangegravy

derekon wrote: »

These severe cold FI models have been doing the rounds the past number of weeks and still no decent cold, so excuse me if I am sceptical but its always "next week" and next week never arrives.

D

Exactly the same as last winter after the big freeze, charts were promising a second blast for weeks, broke my heart watching every model run everyday just to see it put back another few days each time.

I learned a lot from that and this year I've been watching them for what they are, and that is predictions of what possibly might happen.

In the 5-10 day bracket, anyone saying without a shadow of a doubt that it's definitely not going to snow, or indeed that it definitely is going to snow, is just hoping for the weather they prefer, and to be honest it can be very misleading to the people who just want the facts and can accept that if, for example, the models are showing a 40% chance of snow or mild, then that's exactly what it is, nothing more, nothing less.

I think there should be a thread for people to vent their frustration at the models unwillingness to give us what we want during these possible events, similar to the SAA thread, so that these kind of threads can be freed up for just detailed and informed analysis and subsequent weather questions.

Not having a go, just commenting that it's gone a bit haywire on here recently, and maybe it needs to be reeled in a bit, giving each forum member a specific place to voice their own personal opinion on the current situation, without distracting from the main reason most of us are here, to observe, question and learn about the weather.

My two cents...

Deep Easterly

sdeire wrote: »

Must say I'm a lot less inclined to read through this forum of late. Lots of frankly silly people having hissy-fit arguments. I'm a long time lurker here, occasional poster and someone who is extremely interested in the weather.

The idea of arguing over forceasts which everyone knows are totally at the mercy of mother nature's whim, however, is frankly beyond me.

I'm not a mod here, nor would I ever wish to be - but a serious dose of cop on is needed. No names. You're discouraging people like myself, I'm sure I'm not the only one. The educated and (even ones which differed) respected, well-thought-out comments, are slowly being diluted by petty flaming to the extent I don't really enjoy picking through the various opinions any more.

Have to say, having read through a lot of the posts on this thread that span back the last couple of days or so, I have no idea what is spurring on these type of comments. As far as I can see, there was no 'hissy-fit' arguments or tantrums going on. Of what I did read, all I saw as pleasant exchanges and respectful disagreement between weather and model watchers on various model outputs with the only contentious posts being ones like the above. I also read that this forum was becoming more and more like Netweather, can't see it myself, unless of course, actually discussing weather makes it so...

mickger844posts

GFS 0Z run has rolled out and its a stinker if you want cold and snow. Atlantic continues to dominant for the foreseeable future.

blackius

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 0Z run has rolled out and its a stinker if you want cold and snow. Atlantic continues to dominant for the foreseeable future.

For the foreseeable future?
How long is the foreseeable in the current flux?
I thought,and with respect you should know this,that it's very dangerous to speculate beyond 96hrs at the moment.

The best/worst that can be said at the moment in my view is as deep easterly put it above.The Atlantic army is having trouble getting beyond the welsh borders.
Whether it will push further the models aren't good enough to tell us in the current set up untill the synoptics get a tad less complicated for them it seems.
That kind of near term uncertainty has happened often with them when trying to deal with potential easterlies but I don't remember anything as fluxxed as this episode mind you.

mickger844posts

blackius wrote: »

For the foreseeable future?
How long is the foreseeable in the current flux?
I thought,and with respect you should know this,that it's very dangerous to speculate beyond 96hrs at the moment.

The best/worst that can be said at the moment in my view is as deep easterly put it above.The Atlantic army is having trouble getting beyond the welsh borders.
Whether it will push further the models aren't good enough to tell us in the current set up untill the synoptics get a tad less complicated for them it seems.
That kind of near term uncertainty has happened often with them when trying to deal with potential easterlies but I don't remember anything as fluxxed as this episode mind you.

Ok then i will reword what i said . "The Atlantic will dominate for 96 hours as it is very dangerous to speculate beyond that time frame" Does that sound better for you?

blackius

Why are you defensive about a critical comment?
All I'm pointing out is that if the atlantic is having difficulty sending it's systems beyond birmingham,then it's a possibility it will retreat still.
We don't know.Theres no need yet to be discounting this completely.

I would agree that the normal is more likely than the abnormal usually but even the ecm ensembles cannot agree on that for the moment.
I've no idea yet what the ensemble suite is guiding this morning .

mickger844posts

blackius wrote: »

Why are you defensive about a critical comment?
All I'm pointing out is that if the atlantic is having difficulty sending it's systems beyond birmingham,then it's a possibility it will retreat still.
We don't know.Theres no need yet to be discounting this completely.

I would agree that the normal is more likely than the abnormal usually but even the ecm ensembles cannot agree on that for the moment.
I've no idea yet what the ensemble suite is guiding this morning .

I don't need to be told by you what i should and shouldn't know thanks very much. Your condescending attitude to the posts wording was uncalled for in my opinion. That's all i will say on the matter as we can do without anymore conflict in here.

mickger844posts

ECMWF 0Z has the cold winning

DOCARCH

Outlook from ME this morning, for next week.

The week ahead looks like it will become much colder again.

Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

Similar to MT's thoughts in his forecast.

It's a real nowcast situation and how far west the cold air makes it.

Wild Bill

Just heard that!

Bring on the -20c and kill all the premature springy thingies!

Lookin' good....finally

Speak Now

derekon wrote: »

MAJOR downgrade across all three models (ECM, GFS and GEFS) with Ireland due to have mild weather from next Tuesday onwards and any major cold retreating to south and eastern Europe.

Will the moderators now close this thread as really, people are only kidding themselves!! No major cold on the way and its about time we faced the reality of this!!!

D

Will you ever learn Derek or are you trying reverse Psychology with the models? A forecast is only fact after it happens

sparrowcar

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just heard that!

Bring on the -20c and kill all the premature springy thingies!

Lookin' good....finally

You want to kill baby lambs? :eek:

Dr Galen

Without going too OT or anything, I think people need to remember that this is a forum in the Science Category of the site, and as such, there is going to be debate, there is going to be pulling apart and dissection of people's theories - that's what science is all about!

Many of the posters here, who stick their neck out and make a prediction or a forecast, are proper weather watchers. Many of them understand the physics involved in making a call, and as such are "science people". They know that when they stick their neck out - their theory/prediction is going to be dissected, because that's what happens. Obviously people need to be civil when doing this though.

It might seem a bit harsh to non-science folks ( I mean that with all respect guys) but thats how it is, and it couldn't and shouldn't be any other way. Once everyone can be civil to each other, I don't think there's a major problem tbh.

Anyway back OT

Models are arseways - but then so is the actual weather really, so maybe they aren't as "wrong" as some would think
It's a bit chilly this morning
I won't be cracking out the snow plough just yet. Which is good, because personally even though I'm a huge fan of extreme weather, i feckin hate snow!

Speak Now

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 0Z run has rolled out and its a stinker if you want cold and snow. Atlantic continues to dominant for the foreseeable future.

Amazingly GFS has fallen behind the GEM in the verification stats :eek:

Big 3 is now ECM,UKMO and GEM

Must admit the GFS being so readily available, running 4 times per day and running out so far is the first model i look at each morning

ECM interesting today, cold in Britain in the reliabe timeframe but we remain on the wrong side of the battle ground until FI really

Still great model watching even though it's slightly head wrecking

Wild Bill

sparrowcar wrote: »

You want to kill baby lambs? :eek:

I'd ate me childer' to see a foot of snow !

DOCARCH

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

ECM interesting today, cold in Britain in the reliabe timeframe but we remain on the wrong side of the battle ground until FI really

Good to see that. We may be on the wrong side but it might just be cold enough!

Wild Bill

Wild Bill wrote: »

I'd ate me childer' to see a foot of snow !

In fact I heard the Devil was in the market for souls...contemplating an exchange.....;)

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Outlook from ME this morning, for next week.

The week ahead looks like it will become much colder again.

Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

Similar to MT's thoughts in his forecast.

It's a real nowcast situation and how far west the cold air makes it.

Did met eireann change their outlook this morning? When i first read it earlier it seemed boring atlantic dominated weather was their prediction. nothing about a wintry outlook like now as far as i can recall..

Wild Bill

munsterlegend wrote: »

Did met eireann change their outlook this morning? When i first read it earlier it seemed boring atlantic dominated weather was their prediction. nothing about a wintry outlook like now as far as i can recall..

The 8am on RTE (one); just as the quotation above (DOCARCH) said

DOCARCH

munsterlegend wrote: »

Did met eireann change their outlook this morning? When i first read it earlier it seemed boring atlantic dominated weather was their prediction. nothing about a wintry outlook like now as far as i can recall..

Don't know, but I suspect there will be a few headaches up in Glasnevin over the coming days as what to forecast with a bit of flip flopping.

From models this morning it looks like we will be in no mans land between the cold air to the east and warm/atlantic air to the west. 50 to 100 miles either way will make a huge difference as to the type of weather we get!

munsterlegend

Wild Bill wrote: »

The 8am on RTE (one); just as the quotation above (DOCARCH) said

i read their website around 6 30 ish and it had its morning update which seemed to be different to what it is saying now! maybe i was dreaming...