Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

11-09-2020 8:09pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have a look at rent.ie - there are a staggering number of rooms in Rathgar (and surrounding areas) available- many of them for more than 6 months.

It is a different market- there is plenty of supply (and then some) to meet demand. If you want to let a room for top dollar- it has to be outstanding in some respect- and will almost certainly be en-suite at very least.

There are rooms to let in Rathgar at 800- however- rent.ie shows you when the adds were put up- and the more expensive units- unless there is a compelling reason for the price- are simply sitting there.

Some from just this evening have rooms @ 600/month (inclusive of a cooked breakfast and dinner). That sounds like remarkable value (albeit on a 5 night basis):

https://www.rent.ie/rooms-to-rent/Highfield-Road-Rathgar-Rathgar-Dublin-6-South-Dublin-City/1191844/

Link to all rooms currently available (and you can see how long the expensive rooms have been sitting there) here:

https://www.rent.ie/rooms-to-rent/dublin/rathgar/room-type_either/

This is *just* Rathgar- if you broaden the criteria to take in more of D6- there are over 200 bedrooms currently listed.

Yes 600 would be a fair price and that's what I told her old pair but they wont listen.

That's the land owning classes for you.

Leozord · 11-09-2020 8:13pm

I have a friend who put a room to rent in Lucan, for 600 quid, got plenty of e-mails asking for viewing...

Ozark707 · 11-09-2020 8:15pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

I should clarify now, her parents own the place and are pressuring her to keep the price up.

No its a big double room

Yes last year when we had a browse on Daft similar properties in Rathgar were indeed Euro 800 but demand has dropped off a cliff due to the pandemic.

As I posted earlier in this thread, the amount of my friends who have moved out of Dublin and back to Kerry to work remotely is huge.

I am a member of a FB group for a particular expat community. A few of them have come on recently to post spare rooms. There does not seem to be much appetite even though the prices are reasonable. Looks like a further correction coming in these rates so

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 8:17pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

Yes 600 would be a fair price and that's what I told her old pair but they wont listen.

That's the land owning classes for you.

I don't know who they are (and I don't want to know)- but most sane people- regardless of what socio-economic group they fall into- recognise the situation they find themselves in- and modify their plans according to the circumstances they are presented with.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with 'land owning classes'- its a refusal to engage with changed circumstances.

If they wish to continue with that- its their loss- they could most probably find a nice person to houseshare with- were they to moderate their expectations- this refusal to recognise that times have changed, is already biting them in the arse and they are cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

11-09-2020 8:19pm

Leozord wrote: »

I have a friend who put a room to rent in Lucan, for 600 quid, got plenty of e-mails asking for viewing...

I have a room just off Griffith Avenue for 500 and have got about 9 emails all of whom are totally unsuitable.

I got hundreds and hundreds when I had a room going in 2018.

As Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They Are A Changing.

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 8:20pm

Leozord wrote: »

I have a friend who put a room to rent in Lucan, for 600 quid, got plenty of e-mails asking for viewing...

And I posted a room from AGP in Lucan for 150 a month here a few days ago.
If the room (and whatever else is included in the price) meets the expectations of people- there is no reason whatsoever why it shouldn't go.

600 for a room in Lucan though- would be fairly rarefied territory- Lucan has some nice estates- but it has a high level of vacant properties and rooms available. This evening on rent.ie there are 69 bedrooms to let in Lucan here: https://www.rent.ie/rooms-to-rent/dublin/lucan/room-type_either/

Mr Hindley · 11-09-2020 8:29pm

Does a price drop of 3000 euro per month count as 'significant'?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/foxrock/8-leopardstown-road-foxrock-dublin-2059456/

Admittedly, something tells me this might just possibly be a mistake on the part of the seller...

I saw another place recently where the price had dropped by precisely five euro.

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 8:31pm

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Does a price drop of 3000 euro per month count as 'significant'?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/foxrock/8-leopardstown-road-foxrock-dublin-2059456/

Admittedly, something tells me this might just possibly be a mistake on the part of the seller... I saw another place recently where the price had dropped by precisely five euro.

They changed it from renting the whole property to letting it on a per-person basis (and even at that- 4 of the bedrooms are shared bedrooms).

Suitable for up to 9 people at €845 per calendar month per person

Mr Hindley · 11-09-2020 8:35pm

Ah, you're right. Interesting move on their part, in the current climate..!

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 8:40pm

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Ah, you're right. Interesting move on their part, in the current climate..!

The way its worded- it sounds like they are trying to appeal to the non-existent student market- only someone seems to have forgotten to tell them that the students aren't there- on the one hand- and on the other hand- what student in their right mind would pay 845 a month to share a bedroom with a stranger?

They were letting the whole house for 3,850 (which is pricey) now they are suggesting that it may be worth up to 7,600 a month- which is extortionate.

Hubertj · 11-09-2020 8:45pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

The way its worded- it sounds like they are trying to appeal to the non-existent student market- only someone seems to have forgotten to tell them that the students aren't there- on the one hand- and on the other hand- what student in their right mind would pay 845 a month to share a bedroom with a stranger?

They were letting the whole house for 3,850 (which is pricey) now they are suggesting that it may be worth up to 7,600 a month- which is extortionate.

Would be a great party house though

beaufoy · 11-09-2020 8:53pm

only just seen this thread and i might be repeating someone else, but it is my own thoughts.
The student rentals will bounce back the badly educated are badly paid, and there are no jobs...so students will return next year...maybe 20% or more will commut from mummy's house so the new expensive student villages will have a bad time
Offices and shops will close and be converted to apts so city centre accommodation will become more easy to find and so will decrease a little in price
However the main stumbling block is that Ireland copied the most stupid british policy of selling off council houses and not replacing them...this policy has to be corrected before prices drop significantly

Ozark707 · 11-09-2020 9:16pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

They changed it from renting the whole property to letting it on a per-person basis (and even at that- 4 of the bedrooms are shared bedrooms).

I am guessing they were hoping for the UCD market...good luck with that now

Ozark707 · 11-09-2020 9:19pm

beaufoy wrote: »

The student rentals will bounce back the badly educated are badly paid, and there are no jobs...so students will return next year...maybe 20% or more will commut from mummy's house so the new expensive student villages will have a bad time

Those new student places are already having a very hard time. Some are attempting to get the planning conditions so that they can be let to non students...which will impact that market as well.

From the anecdotes here this evening it does appear that there are simply too many rooms chasing too few tenants.

Question is how long this can continue?

Assetbacked · 11-09-2020 10:04pm

It's collapsing before our very eyes. But the risk is mainly to investors and not the Irish tax payer so there won't be much of a stir in the media. A benefit to many, a disaster for a few.

Dav010 · 11-09-2020 10:22pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's collapsing before our very eyes. But the risk is mainly to investors and not the Irish tax payer so there won't be much of a stir in the media. A benefit to many, a disaster for a few.

You have been the harbinger of doom on this thread for months, the fact is that thousands of students will need accommodation when classes resume in full for third level students. Yes this may be months away, but the fact is that if a vaccine was announced in the morning, tens of thousands of students and office workers would need a place to stay. Trials seem to be progressing and leaving aside the over optimistic statements of the nut job in the whitehouse, it seems that we are talking months rather than years.

Assetbacked · 11-09-2020 10:52pm

Dav010 wrote: »

You have been the harbinger of doom on this thread for months, the fact is that thousands of students will need accommodation when classes resume in full for third level students. Yes this may be months away, but the fact is that if a vaccine was announced in the morning, tens of thousands of students and office workers would need a place to stay. Trials seem to be progressing and leaving aside the over optimistic statements of the nut job in the whitehouse, it seems that we are talking months rather than years.

It's pretty clear you're overly emotional. What even is that statement "the fact is that if a vaccine was announced in the morning"? Did you think by using the word 'fact' your hypothetical scenario would manifest as a fact when it is read?

The reality is that at the rate the OTT covid response is going, very best case scenario, semester one next year is when physical attendance en masse at universities will hapoen. That's assuming a vaccine (the apparent silver bullet to the whole crisis) is rolled out in the shortest timeframe possible as it will need to be manufactured and provided to the most vulnerable in the first instance which will take months. So from that perspective, students won't be on campus until semester one next year at the earliest.

Additonally, the economic fallout will be dramatic as you can clearly see already in the retail, tourism and hospitality industries. Where do they find a lot of their employees? Among students who are looking for part time work. That part time work disappeared over the summer and won't be back for quite some time (the EU is targeting 2022/2023 to restore economic growth), which means no money to pay rent/supplement the money they get from parents or as grants for living close to university.

So not needing to be on campus until at least this time next year combined with the fallout for part time work they would usually get means it is so unlikely the student rentals can be sustained at 600euro+ for a room, let alone 800euro+ like the purpose built places.

In respect of the general rental market, demand is gone. Supply of rentals on Daft is up 260% since March and obviously going to continue to rise as travel is dead for the rest of this year meaning no new workers coming in looking for rentals, executives and their families moving in etc. The lower paid jobs are again in the firing line and of course, as you can see in the other thread, this is why the purchasing market won't be too badly impacted as these people are not in the market to purchase. They are however in the market for rentals. Remember as well, there is an eviction ban until January 2021 for tenants.

You say it's doom mongering but I think a collapse in rental prices is a good thing. That's what happens with a bubble, people get caught up in the hysteria and don't realise things are getting out of hand so it is seen as a bad thing when it pops. It isn't though. That is my optimistic view of the rental market.

Cantstandsya · 11-09-2020 10:54pm

Dav010 wrote: »

You have been the harbinger of doom on this thread for months, the fact is that thousands of students will need accommodation when classes resume in full for third level students. Yes this may be months away, but the fact is that if a vaccine was announced in the morning, tens of thousands of students and office workers would need a place to stay. Trials seem to be progressing and leaving aside the over optimistic statements of the nut job in the whitehouse, it seems that we are talking months rather than years.

Fauci in the US is hopeful a vaccine will be discovered by December. That's best case scenario. If one were discovered in December it would be April before anyone in Ireland received it... so, if a vaccine were announced in the morning it would probably be January before the first person in Ireland received it.

This won't be gone tomorrow and it won't be gone in a few months either. The absolute best case scenario is vaccine by December and rollout begins in Ireland in April, how long after that before things get back to normal? My opinion is things won't ever go back to how they were.

Saying all of that doesn't make someone a doom monger, it's what the experts are telling us.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/when-will-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-be-used-in-ireland-1.4324737

Dav010 · 11-09-2020 11:28pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's pretty clear you're overly emotional. What even is that statement "the fact is that if a vaccine was announced in the morning"? Did you think by using the word 'fact' your hypothetical scenario would manifest as a fact when it is read?

The reality is that at the rate the OTT covid response is going, very best case scenario, semester one next year is when physical attendance en masse at universities will hapoen. That's assuming a vaccine (the apparent silver bullet to the whole crisis) is rolled out in the shortest timeframe possible as it will need to be manufactured and provided to the most vulnerable in the first instance which will take months. So from that perspective, students won't be on campus until semester one next year at the earliest.

Additonally, the economic fallout will be dramatic as you can clearly see already in the retail, tourism and hospitality industries. Where do they find a lot of their employees? Among students who are looking for part time work. That part time work disappeared over the summer and won't be back for quite some time (the EU is targeting 2022/2023 to restore economic growth), which means no money to pay rent/supplement the money they get from parents or as grants for living close to university.

So not needing to be on campus until at least this time next year combined with the fallout for part time work they would usually get means it is so unlikely the student rentals can be sustained at 600euro+ for a room, let alone 800euro+ like the purpose built places.

In respect of the general rental market, demand is gone. Supply of rentals on Daft is up 260% since March and obviously going to continue to rise as travel is dead for the rest of this year meaning no new workers coming in looking for rentals, executives and their families moving in etc. The lower paid jobs are again in the firing line and of course, as you can see in the other thread, this is why the purchasing market won't be too badly impacted as these people are not in the market to purchase. They are however in the market for rentals. Remember as well, there is an eviction ban until January 2021 for tenants.

You say it's doom mongering but I think a collapse in rental prices is a good thing. That's what happens with a bubble, people get caught up in the hysteria and don't realise things are getting out of hand so it is seen as a bad thing when it pops. It isn't though. That is my optimistic view of the rental market.

Overly emotional?

I’m just not as pessimistic as you are.

There is no doubt that as long as students stay out of class rooms, demand for accommodation near third level colleges will be low, once they resume, will students need accommodation? Of course.

Some fintech companies will continue to wfh, but if you don’t need a computer to do your job, you will need a place to stay. The bars are due to reopen next week, all things going well, so there will be another sizeable decrease in the numbers unemployed.

The enormous undersupply of rental properties hasn’t suddenly been wiped by mass completions of new builds, the demand in cities has suffered a sudden shock, but that will not continue indefinitely. To think that the demand will not be there again is to assume the rate of Covid spread will remain constant.

The CSO unemployment figures published on Wednesday do not paint as stark a picture as you are making out. The main unemployment rate is 5.2, up from 4.9 twelve months ago. The Covid adjusted figures are higher, but this is based on PUP payments and would include a considerable number of students.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.breakingnews.ie/ireland/unemployment-rate-continues-to-fall-in-august-down-to-154-1016402.html

What we are seeing is a giant anomaly in the market, but not one caused by the usual over supply of properties, but rather an acute, temporary undersupply of tenants.

JamesMason · 11-09-2020 11:29pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Fauci in the US is hopeful a vaccine will be discovered by December. That's best case scenario. If one were discovered in December it would be April before anyone in Ireland received it... so, if a vaccine were announced in the morning it would probably be January before the first person in Ireland received it.

This won't be gone tomorrow and it won't be gone in a few months either. The absolute best case scenario is vaccine by December and rollout begins in Ireland in April, how long after that before things get back to normal? My opinion is things won't ever go back to how they were.

Saying all of that doesn't make someone a doom monger, it's what the experts are telling us.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/when-will-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-be-used-in-ireland-1.4324737

Vaccinations by December 2021 would be more realistic.

Hubertj · 12-09-2020 8:05am

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Fauci in the US is hopeful a vaccine will be discovered by December. That's best case scenario. If one were discovered in December it would be April before anyone in Ireland received it... so, if a vaccine were announced in the morning it would probably be January before the first person in Ireland received it.

This won't be gone tomorrow and it won't be gone in a few months either. The absolute best case scenario is vaccine by December and rollout begins in Ireland in April, how long after that before things get back to normal? My opinion is things won't ever go back to how they were.

Saying all of that doesn't make someone a doom monger, it's what the experts are telling us.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/when-will-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-be-used-in-ireland-1.4324737

Hang on a minute. Donald told us there would be a vaccine before the November election. Are you telling me he was being untruthful?

Assetbacked · 12-09-2020 10:13am

Dav010 wrote: »

Overly emotional?

I’m just not as pessimistic as you are.

There is no doubt that as long as students stay out of class rooms, demand for accommodation near third level colleges will be low, once they resume, will students need accommodation? Of course.

Some fintech companies will continue to wfh, but if you don’t need a computer to do your job, you will need a place to stay. The bars are due to reopen next week, all things going well, so there will be another sizeable decrease in the numbers unemployed.

The enormous undersupply of rental properties hasn’t suddenly been wiped by mass completions of new builds, the demand in cities has suffered a sudden shock, but that will not continue indefinitely. To think that the demand will not be there again is to assume the rate of Covid spread will remain constant.

The CSO unemployment figures published on Wednesday do not paint as stark a picture as you are making out. The main unemployment rate is 5.2, up from 4.9 twelve months ago. The Covid adjusted figures are higher, but this is based on PUP payments and would include a considerable number of students.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.breakingnews.ie/ireland/unemployment-rate-continues-to-fall-in-august-down-to-154-1016402.html

What we are seeing is a giant anomaly in the market, but not one caused by the usual over supply of properties, but rather an acute, temporary undersupply of tenants.

Sorry, you're not overly emotional.

I agree, it is a massive demand shock to the economy and the rental market in particular.

My view is that the rental market is an unsustainable bubble and that the last few years are going to be the outliers, otherwise working renters are being forced to consider no longer working as salaries are not matching rental increases so they are getting poorer each year the current situation continues.

With a bubble, it doesn't go pop like a bubble. It seems like a few shocks change the hysteria mood around the whole thing to one of uncertainty as some stats emerge from those shocks indicating it is not all plain sailing.

Brexit was one or is still seen to be a shock, our own election and SF getting votes is another shock, the OECD aim to harmonise global tax to minimise tax arbitrage for massive entities, EU digital tax talk, the hyper growth of the asset management industry which has funnelled massive debt into the system with complex financial instruments (again) like CLOs, the instable social situation in the US can impact us given our reliance on them for a portion of our economy, climate change etc. Covid is just one of many stress testers to the whole situation and it turns out the strict measures on travel and WFH are lasting far longer than people anticipated which is hammering aspects of our property market.

Dav010 · 12-09-2020 10:30am

Assetbacked wrote: »

Sorry, you're not overly emotional.

I agree, it is a massive demand shock to the economy and the rental market in particular.

My view is that the rental market is an unsustainable bubble and that the last few years are going to be the outliers, otherwise working renters are being forced to consider no longer working as salaries are not matching rental increases so they are getting poorer each year the current situation continues.

With a bubble, it doesn't go pop like a bubble. It seems like a few shocks change the hysteria mood around the whole thing to one of uncertainty as some stats emerge from those shocks indicating it is not all plain sailing.

Brexit was one or is still seen to be a shock, our own election and SF getting votes is another shock, the OECD aim to harmonise global tax to minimise tax arbitrage for massive entities, EU digital tax talk, the hyper growth of the asset management industry which has funnelled massive debt into the system with complex financial instruments (again) like CLOs, the instable social situation in the US can impact us given our reliance on them for a portion of our economy, climate change etc. Covid is just one of many stress testers to the whole situation and it turns out the strict measures on travel and WFH are lasting far longer than people anticipated which is hammering aspects of our property market.

On the other hand, there is no mass emigration as there has been previously in recessions, bank deposits are healthy, lenders have not and will not supply easy credit. School students are back and most people are back to work.

Are third level students in full time education eligible for PUP when term commences? If not, there will be a significant drop in PUP numbers in 3 weeks.

I agree this is a very difficult time for LLs, obviously supply has increased, how could it not when you take hundreds of thousands of students and wfh’s out of the equation. But there is certainty that classes will return to normal, though when that will be is currently unknown, and many office workers will return to their offices. It doesn’t take a brilliant economic mind to recognise the problems which currently exist in the sector, but the reality is that normal service will resume when students go back because there has been negligible increase in property unit completions and LLs will continue to leave the market.

For those currently in rental accommodation, there has never been a better time to upgrade or find a lower cost rental. Given the need to provide notice, that window of opportunity may only be open until the beginning of the third semester when hopefully vaccine roll out will have begun.

Considering property sales have remained relatively strong, Im surprised more LLs are not selling.

Mr Hindley · 12-09-2020 4:28pm

Something that has me confused (and worried) - having decided to hold off on buying for another six months to a year, and focusing on the rental market, the rental prices, or asking prices at least, still seem to be sky high. What's more, it can't be a case that deluded landlords are sitting there demanding an unrealistic rent while their property lies empty, as most places that catch my attention seem to go back off the market in a week or two, implying there's still plenty of demand.

Now, I'm constrained for family reasons to the south Dublin / north Wicklow area, and that might be a very different market to central Dublin if that's where the posters talking of lots of empty flats in their buildings are from. Where I'm looking is maybe exactly the kind of place that people are trying to leave central Dublin to move to.

Is anyone else still seeing this i.e. rental properties flying off the shelves?

Ozark707 · 12-09-2020 5:51pm

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Something that has me confused (and worried) - having decided to hold off on buying for another six months to a year, and focusing on the rental market, the rental prices, or asking prices at least, still seem to be sky high. What's more, it can't be a case that deluded landlords are sitting there demanding an unrealistic rent while their property lies empty, as most places that catch my attention seem to go back off the market in a week or two, implying there's still plenty of demand.

Now, I'm constrained for family reasons to the south Dublin / north Wicklow area, and that might be a very different market to central Dublin if that's where the posters talking of lots of empty flats in their buildings are from. Where I'm looking is maybe exactly the kind of place that people are trying to leave central Dublin to move to.

Is anyone else still seeing this i.e. rental properties flying off the shelves?

Have you rang up any of the agents to see how negotiable they are. I am noticing that places priced keenly are going but ones looking for 2019 prices are not. I have heard of a number of people securing more than 10% off asking

Mr Hindley · 12-09-2020 6:01pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Have you rang up any of the agents to see how negotiable they are. I am noticing that places priced keenly are going but ones looking for 2019 prices are not. I have heard of a number of people securing more than 10% off asking

I haven't yet - need to finish my quarantine period first after relocating home from London - but was interested to hear of peoples' experience on the ground. Good to know there's scope for some negotiation. I have noticed that the places that are dumps are now having to drop their prices sharply, but most places halfway decent are maintaining high asking prices. The odd bargain shows up and disappears almost instantly, but maybe there are more bargains out there than it seems.

Thanks, I was starting to get depressed about it all..!

Browney7 · 12-09-2020 6:38pm

Mr Hindley wrote: »

I haven't yet - need to finish my quarantine period first after relocating home from London - but was interested to hear of peoples' experience on the ground. Good to know there's scope for some negotiation. I have noticed that the places that are dumps are now having to drop their prices sharply, but most places halfway decent are maintaining high asking prices. The odd bargain shows up and disappears almost instantly, but maybe there are more bargains out there than it seems.

Thanks, I was starting to get depressed about it all..!

My feel from speaking to people currently looking is if you want a place you'll get it once you're serious - no problems getting a viewing for places. I expect you'd be able to negotiate on reduced rent and would amount to a "first month free" arrangment. Also, have a look at IRES website directly, I've noticed that their furnished properties are newer properties whereas properties that are subject to rent control are now unfurnished which may suit you.

Ozark707 · 12-09-2020 8:49pm

Browney7 wrote: »

Also, have a look at IRES website directly, I've noticed that their furnished properties are newer properties whereas properties that are subject to rent control are now unfurnished which may suit you.

If the likes of IRES are trying to get rates based on previous values they will probably struggle now. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of the overpriced units from them and others. Who is going to pay now over 3k for a 2 bed? Surely even companies who might have been paying for places for their staff have twigged this as well?

jmlad2020 · 12-09-2020 11:27pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

You are preaching to the converted. I suggested 600 but she wont listen to me.

I'll take it off her for €600

Mr Hindley · 13-09-2020 12:05am

Browney7 wrote: »

My feel from speaking to people currently looking is if you want a place you'll get it once you're serious - no problems getting a viewing for places. I expect you'd be able to negotiate on reduced rent and would amount to a "first month free" arrangment. Also, have a look at IRES website directly, I've noticed that their furnished properties are newer properties whereas properties that are subject to rent control are now unfurnished which may suit you.

Thanks for this - it hadn't even occurred to me to go straight to the REITs themselves, and you're right, as someone used to owning their own home, unfurnished suits me much better, otherwise I'm paying for storage for my furniture as well. Looking on Daft, unfurnished rentals seemed in surprisingly short supply. I'll have a poke around on the IRES site - I notice they don't seem to publish prices on the website, just 'enquire within'!

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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