Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

brisan

Dav010 wrote: »

Could it also mean they plan to cut staff/halt recruitment? That would not be good news.

Well if advertising revenue drops that is very likely

OwlsZat

Jizique wrote: »

Johnny Ronan sweating I reckon - wonder will he build on Tara Street/George’s Quay.
Interesting to see the George’s Quay Plaza, bought last year, back on the market; Pat Gunne and Hibernia REIT timed it well

Pretty sure it was D.McW calling the REIT smart money exiting as strong bellwether of economic contraction.

OwlsZat

brisan wrote: »

Well if advertising revenue drops that is very likely

More likely WFH sure they have a huge amount of space already between their original building and the Boland millls redevelopment?

Assetbacked

OwlsZat wrote: »

Pretty sure it was D.McW calling the REIT smart money exiting as strong bellwether of economic contraction.

He also said that if your Irish pension was getting exposure to Irish property then you've missed the boat already. Look at the Aviva and Irish Life property funds, they are in real trouble.

OwlsZat

Assetbacked wrote: »

He also said that if your Irish pension was getting exposure to Irish property then you've missed the boat already. Look at the Aviva and Irish Life property funds, they are in real trouble.

Might be confirmation bias but he seems to have been fairly on the money. :pac:

Hubertj

OwlsZat wrote: »

More likely WFH sure they have a huge amount of space already between their original building and the Boland millls redevelopment?

Yea and I think they own the bolands mill offices they are developing

Assetbacked

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

I was just looking at this again. As of 1st September;

2636 rental listings available on Daft, up from 1241 from 1st March (112% increase).
2030 of these, up from 775, are apartments (161% increase).

Phenomenal figures but asking rents have not fallen as of yet more than a maximum of 10%. Though with the Google news and WFH looking like it is continuing until at least early next year (even later for the likes of Google) and now universities being back not resulting in increased demand, these rentals will be looking at at least another 4 months of muted demand so unless rents are dropped these places will be vacant for a while. It's like a western movie standoff between the advertised prices and the covid response; which will give in first.

OwlsZat

Morgage holidays due to expire this month. Landlords will be forced to get real.

Lux23

OwlsZat wrote: »

Morgage holidays due to expire this month. Landlords will be forced to get real.

You mean if their properties are lying empty? I am not sure there is that many.

OwlsZat

Fair enough my apartment blockwhich is very popular and on the Liffey has loads vacant. All up on daft at prices I'd never pay.

The_Conductor

Lux23 wrote: »

You mean if their properties are lying empty? I am not sure there is that many.

I'm not sure how many are vacant- but where I live at the moment- 4 out of 23 units are vacant- and none of them are being advertised. I imagine there is a lot of this happening around Dublin- as units are being vacated they're being deliberately left empty waiting to see what happens with Covid- or being informally done up with the intention of selling them ASAP before the arse falls out of the sale market.

jmlad2020

Just a question for the thread - how easy/hard is it to find accommodation to rent in Dublin (shared house) right now.

In normal times I've had the typical brutal experience of finding a place but is it slightly easier these days?

The_Conductor

jmlad2020 wrote: »

Just a question for the thread - how easy/hard is it to find accommodation to rent in Dublin (shared house) right now.

In normal times I've had the typical brutal experience of finding a place but is it slightly easier these days?

It depends on where you want to live- and location will also determine the price- from 125 a month in a fairly rough estate (Arthur Griffith Park) in Lucan here: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/house-share/lucan/arthur-griffith-park-lucan-dublin-1190489/

to EUR800 a week (yup- 3,200 a month for a house/apartment share) at Alexandra College- here: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartment-share/milltown/alexandra-college-milltown-milltown-dublin-1188841/

As of this evening there are 2,621 house/apartment shares in Dublin advertised on Daft- within 10 of the number of full houses/apartments there are available to rent (there are over 2,000 vacant apartments to let on DAFT in Dublin, right here, right now.)

errlloyd

jmlad2020 wrote: »

Just a question for the thread - how easy/hard is it to find accommodation to rent in Dublin (shared house) right now.

In normal times I've had the typical brutal experience of finding a place but is it slightly easier these days?

I think the selection has increased rather than the price decreasing. A mate of mine moved and he said it was completely different from a year ago. People mailed back immediately. They pitched themselves to him.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

I was just looking at this again. As of 1st September;

2636 rental listings available on Daft, up from 1241 from 1st March (112% increase).
2030 of these, up from 775, are apartments (161% increase).

Phenomenal figures but asking rents have not fallen as of yet more than a maximum of 10%. Though with the Google news and WFH looking like it is continuing until at least early next year (even later for the likes of Google) and now universities being back not resulting in increased demand, these rentals will be looking at at least another 4 months of muted demand so unless rents are dropped these places will be vacant for a while. It's like a western movie standoff between the advertised prices and the covid response; which will give in first.

I would like to know what volumes is shifting. So volume available has increase by a significant amount and we know the reasons why. Do we know:
- how many have been vacant/available for rent for an extended period. For example, of the 2030 available, X Units has been available for more than 4 weeks while Y units shift in less than 4 weeks.
- average time to let a unit now vs pre-Covid
- could there actually be a lot of movement - people move from 1 place to the other for lower rent or paying the same for a better unit. Then the unit the left becomes available.

AlmightyCushion

jmlad2020 wrote: »

Just a question for the thread - how easy/hard is it to find accommodation to rent in Dublin (shared house) right now.

In normal times I've had the typical brutal experience of finding a place but is it slightly easier these days?

Definitely not as much demand as a year or two ago. We put up a room in our apartment on daft as one of the guys living here moved out. We got less interest than we usually get putting up rooms. For the viewings, one of the guys didn't even bother showing up. And this place would be relatively cheap too.

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

I would like to know what volumes is shifting. So volume available has increase by a significant amount and we know the reasons why. Do we know:
- how many have been vacant/available for rent for an extended period. For example, of the 2030 available, X Units has been available for more than 4 weeks while Y units shift in less than 4 weeks.
- average time to let a unit now vs pre-Covid
- could there actually be a lot of movement - people move from 1 place to the other for lower rent or paying the same for a better unit. Then the unit the left becomes available.

What you're asking won't come for free I'm afraid.

OwlsZat

Anecodotally, from someone listing a room for rent ad about a 90% reduction in enquiries from normal.

The_Conductor

OwlsZat wrote: »

Anecodotally, from someone listing a room for rent ad about a 90% reduction in enquiries from normal.

Was helping a colleague let a property in Lucan 2 years ago.
Its a nice property- kitted out to a high standard to try and attract a higher socio-economic tenant. His last tenant was a SHO in one of the children's hospital, but has returned to their home country because of Covid.
Last time round- he got 21 equiries before he turned off his phone and removed his contact details from the DAFT advertisement an hour after it went live.

This week- he got 3 enquiries in 2 days- 2 people showed up to view the property and both decided they didn't want it.

Different times.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

What you're asking won't come for free I'm afraid.

Ok thanks. The graphs tell a clear story but more granular data would provide greater insight into actual activity in the market.

TSQ

errlloyd wrote: »

I think the selection has increased rather than the price decreasing. A mate of mine moved and he said it was completely different from a year ago. People mailed back immediately. They pitched themselves to him.

A lot of the build to rent developments have come on market now, and this, along with the loss of a lot of renters who have left the capital, is the real cause of dropping rents, not Airbnb that everyone here keeps banging on about. I am helping a group of students from India find an apt for a year and there is a fabulous development in Dun Laoghaire which I have found for them: first let, superb fit out, spacious 3 bedrooms, gym, meeting rooms and cafe on site, lovely landscaped grounds, on 46 bus route and short ride to UCD. I couldnt believe the asking rent was just €2,600/mth. There are three large blocks in this development, several hundred apts, all rentals. Lads are self isolating right now, but I wonder if they could get it for even less if they haggle. It is slightly, but not much, over their budget.

Assetbacked

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23340/is-student-housing-the-next-big-property-play-or-just-another-bubble

The Currency has an article from Ronan Lyons today and asks whether student housing is the next bubble or just a smart property play. Maybe they follow this thread and saw us calling out the rake of student accommodation available on Daft at the moment?

I can't copy and paste as it is a premium article but I think you can get one or two free. In any event, the gist of the article is that it discusses the move to online learning and how this may completely shake up the Irish university system (why pay €3k for UCD when you can get access to Harvard or Oxford?). However, Ronan feels that the physical aspect of being present in college is crucial to the experience. He talks about the funding for the universities and how government policy of setting the "free" fees it pays for students and the wages of staff that it pays has lead to a chronic underfunding. As a solution, the government raised the registration fee and attracted more international students to bridge the gap in funding. Numbers enrolling in college are expected to rise significantly over the coming decades which means more international students will be needed.

Some quotes of relevance to the property demand side;

• Across Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick, there are currently about 32,000 purpose-built student units for the academic year just starting. Realistically, however, the underlying need for student units in those four cities is already above 50,000 and – with the college-age cohort growing and international students needing to grow to offset the costs – this need could rise to close to 65,000 units by 2030.
  
• Covid-19 will change many things, in higher education as elsewhere in society. Part-time and short-duration professional courses are quite likely to go completely online – and may see a surge in demand as a result.

His argument is essentially that numbers of students must rise in order to cover the funding gap and that the physical experience of university is too important for numbers to decline. Therefore, the student accommodation market should remain strong.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23340/is-student-housing-the-next-big-property-play-or-just-another-bubble

The Currency has an article from Ronan Lyons today and asks whether student housing is the next bubble or just a smart property play. Maybe they follow this thread and saw us calling out the rake of student accommodation available on Daft at the moment?

I can't copy and paste as it is a premium article but I think you can get one or two free. In any event, the gist of the article is that it discusses the move to online learning and how this may completely shake up the Irish university system (why pay €3k for UCD when you can get access to Harvard or Oxford?). However, Ronan feels that the physical aspect of being present in college is crucial to the experience. He talks about the funding for the universities and how government policy of setting the "free" fees it pays for students and the wages of staff that it pays has lead to a chronic underfunding. As a solution, the government raised the registration fee and attracted more international students to bridge the gap in funding. Numbers enrolling in college are expected to rise significantly over the coming decades which means more international students will be needed.

Some quotes of relevance to the property demand side;

• Across Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick, there are currently about 32,000 purpose-built student units for the academic year just starting. Realistically, however, the underlying need for student units in those four cities is already above 50,000 and – with the college-age cohort growing and international students needing to grow to offset the costs – this need could rise to close to 65,000 units by 2030.
  
• Covid-19 will change many things, in higher education as elsewhere in society. Part-time and short-duration professional courses are quite likely to go completely online – and may see a surge in demand as a result.

His argument is essentially that numbers of students must rise in order to cover the funding gap and that the physical experience of university is too important for numbers to decline. Therefore, the student accommodation market should remain strong.

I don’t know about how many units are required but it makes sense medium term. Whatever happens over next couple of years we can’t have another situation where nothing gets built for a period. That’s just means more trouble down the road in terms of shortages of different types of property.

TSQ

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23340/is-student-housing-the-next-big-property-play-or-just-another-bubble

The Currency has an article from Ronan Lyons today and asks whether student housing is the next bubble or just a smart property play. Maybe they follow this thread and saw us calling out the rake of student accommodation available on Daft at the moment?

I can't copy and paste as it is a premium article but I think you can get one or two free. In any event, the gist of the article is that it discusses the move to online learning and how this may completely shake up the Irish university system (why pay €3k for UCD when you can get access to Harvard or Oxford?). However, Ronan feels that the physical aspect of being present in college is crucial to the experience. He talks about the funding for the universities and how government policy of setting the "free" fees it pays for students and the wages of staff that it pays has lead to a chronic underfunding. As a solution, the government raised the registration fee and attracted more international students to bridge the gap in funding. Numbers enrolling in college are expected to rise significantly over the coming decades which means more international students will be needed.

Some quotes of relevance to the property demand side;

• Across Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick, there are currently about 32,000 purpose-built student units for the academic year just starting. Realistically, however, the underlying need for student units in those four cities is already above 50,000 and – with the college-age cohort growing and international students needing to grow to offset the costs – this need could rise to close to 65,000 units by 2030.
  
• Covid-19 will change many things, in higher education as elsewhere in society. Part-time and short-duration professional courses are quite likely to go completely online – and may see a surge in demand as a result.

His argument is essentially that numbers of students must rise in order to cover the funding gap and that the physical experience of university is too important for numbers to decline. Therefore, the student accommodation market should remain strong.

Not at the rental prices being asked: my Indian students would have to pay €400/wk each for a bed in a twin room in a 3 bedroom apartment in one of these new student blocks. Thats €2,400/wk or €10,000/mth, when you could rent a luxury 3 double bed apt near UCD for €2,600/mth. You would have to offer a lot more more than free wifi and electricity and pool tables to make up the difference. Asking rents for student halls will have to drop, or there will be a lot of empty beds, as there are lots of other rental options out there now.

Leozord

The_Conductor wrote: »

to EUR800 a week (yup- 3,200 a month for a house/apartment share) at Alexandra College- here: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartment-share/milltown/alexandra-college-milltown-milltown-dublin-1188841/

boll*cks at its finest

brisan

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not sure how many are vacant- but where I live at the moment- 4 out of 23 units are vacant- and none of them are being advertised. I imagine there is a lot of this happening around Dublin- as units are being vacated they're being deliberately left empty waiting to see what happens with Covid- or being informally done up with the intention of selling them ASAP before the arse falls out of the sale market.

i know one landlord who has taken 2 apartments off the market.
3 months on DAFT and not budged.
Normally gone within a week.
One had good outside space as well
Not sure of his intentions ,not sure he knows either

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23340/is-student-housing-the-next-big-property-play-or-just-another-bubble

The Currency has an article from Ronan Lyons today and asks whether student housing is the next bubble or just a smart property play. Maybe they follow this thread and saw us calling out the rake of student accommodation available on Daft at the moment?

I can't copy and paste as it is a premium article but I think you can get one or two free. In any event, the gist of the article is that it discusses the move to online learning and how this may completely shake up the Irish university system (why pay €3k for UCD when you can get access to Harvard or Oxford?). However, Ronan feels that the physical aspect of being present in college is crucial to the experience. He talks about the funding for the universities and how government policy of setting the "free" fees it pays for students and the wages of staff that it pays has lead to a chronic underfunding. As a solution, the government raised the registration fee and attracted more international students to bridge the gap in funding. Numbers enrolling in college are expected to rise significantly over the coming decades which means more international students will be needed.

Some quotes of relevance to the property demand side;

• Across Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick, there are currently about 32,000 purpose-built student units for the academic year just starting. Realistically, however, the underlying need for student units in those four cities is already above 50,000 and – with the college-age cohort growing and international students needing to grow to offset the costs – this need could rise to close to 65,000 units by 2030.
  
• Covid-19 will change many things, in higher education as elsewhere in society. Part-time and short-duration professional courses are quite likely to go completely online – and may see a surge in demand as a result.

His argument is essentially that numbers of students must rise in order to cover the funding gap and that the physical experience of university is too important for numbers to decline. Therefore, the student accommodation market should remain strong.

Would that be the Ronan Lyons that is employed by a Dublin University and produces reports for the rental website DAFT ?????

brisan

Leozord wrote: »

boll*cks at its finest

Agreed
Who in their right mind would pay 800 a week for a bedroom
Never mind a student

Dav010

brisan wrote: »

Agreed
Who in their right mind would pay 800 a week for a bedroom
Never mind a student

Generations of teenage girls in Alex.

brisan

Dav010 wrote: »

Generations of teenage girls in Alex.

How many teenage girls are in their right mind
Having had 2 I would probably pay it to get them out of the house lol lol